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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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LOL... the posts on the last two pages are pretty funny. 

 

The weather is boring and Kev is doing a great job of stirring the pot as usual...  I will say, there wouldn't be any posts today if he wasn't poking the nest. 

no drought, no torch, no fires, no nothing, nada , zilch, zippo. 

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Seems typical GFS bias of not sensing strength of block/ high to the NE

 

I thought the GFS bias was for it to be too far south and/or east?  Isn't it "just where we want it" at this time frame?

 

We will see it correct itself back further to the north and ride the coast.  Days and days of snow incoming.

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Man, this is really an awesome stretch of days post that near miss with the coastal earlier this week.  

 

I'm also impressed with the machine stat guidance...  GFSX for BED:
 

X/N 63| 33 67| 38 73| 43 73| 44 70| 40 68| 41 64| 42 62 41 64

 

Three days of 70+ ?   Huh, it looked like we were breaking down that original appeal some heading into next week, showing some potential for high parked too far N, and other nuances.  But the NAM/GFS/GFSX MOS are all warm and sunny on Sunday to start it off.    The GFSX has some OVC's in its cloud product from latter Monday onward, but it is still quite mild. 

 

We better enjoy it because we could get bad week of weather during the 5th to 12th next month -- though as typical in transition season, models are all over the place with how that sh*ts get delivered; if they do at all.  Low confidence. 

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Joe just sent me this picture of LI Sound from Penfield Beach.  Wow, I had no clue it was that dry there.  Just an awful drought.

 

attachicon.gifLong Island Sound.jpg

 

Wait -- am I being obtuse here?  Are you guys kidding.   Sorry, I only drop by once a day so perhaps I am missing something.

 

Just in case there is a modicum of seriousness:  There is a bit of a short duration (3 mo) moderate impact dry period underway, but nothing is coming close to touching ground water/tables just yet.  Now...if this short duration dry bias were to age into June, that may become a different story. 

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Wait -- am I being obtuse here?  Are you guys kidding.   Sorry, I only drop by once a day so perhaps I am missing something.

 

Just in case there is a modicum of seriousness:  There is a bit of a short duration (3 mo) moderate impact dry period underway, but nothing is coming close to touching ground water/tables just yet.  Now...if this short duration dry bias were to age into June, that may become a different story. 

 

LOL, yes he is kidding.

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Someone mentioned this the other day ... maybe it was Scott, but the GFS 12z operational run continues to show an interesting quasi analog for the big flooding on the Merrimack in 2006.  

 

I was just over the Tyngsborough bridge the other day and the rive level is seasonally near its apex depth as it is, so a should that OV -4 SD cut-off materialize just a tad closer, that would be really a big huge problem for up slope rain fail augmented right into the Merr. water shed.  

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Someone mentioned this the other day ... maybe it was Scott, but the GFS 12z operational run continues to show an interesting quasi analog for the big flooding on the Merrimack in 2006.  

 

I was just over the Tyngsborough bridge the other day and the rive level is seasonally near its apex depth as it is, so a should that OV -4 SD cut-off materialize just a tad closer, that would be really a big huge problem for up slope rain fail augmented right into the Merr. water shed.  

 

Will brought that up yesterday. That would be funny to keep that cutoff over the MA and totally crap on them for days while we have onshore flow, but at least partly to mostly sunny anyways.

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Well you said you couldn't wait until the bullseye is over us...so I assumed they might be doing outlook maps like that. Otherwise the bullseye will never be over us.

 

I was just making a joke post.  But the map Quincy posted shows us when our period for best action is.  Those climo maps are a great addition though.  What the SPC has done over the past year has been quite tremendous.

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Yeah what we are in now isn't really all that serious.  All of these deficits could easily be made up within a day or two.  Like Tip said, if we get well into June without any meaningful precip than the issue could be discussed a bit more but even then we wouldn't be looking at anything extreme in terms of drought. 

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CU field with virga plumes erupted up here in Mass...  Pretty cloudless earlier on, but now it is mostly cloudy.  Still mild-ish, though.  62F

 

What a weird 12z Euro run... I tell you, it's just what the doctor ordered for the long terms drought in the Plains;  cuts off the mid levels with a deep instability column out there.  Would imply daily convection and elevation snow/mixing.   

 

Meanwhile, it actually creates +2 SD ridge node over Ontario, and presses it SE over NE through D10.  That more than less "protects" our area, with daily balmy temperatures and dry.  Interesting.  Not sure I buy it, but it is what it is. 

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CU field with virga plumes erupted up here in Mass... Pretty cloudless earlier on, but now it is mostly cloudy. Still mild-ish, though. 62F

What a weird 12z Euro run... I tell you, it's just what the doctor ordered for the long terms drought in the Plains; cuts off the mid levels with a deep instability column out there. Would imply daily convection and elevation snow/mixing.

Meanwhile, it actually creates +2 SD ridge node over Ontario, and presses it SE over NE through D10. That more than less "protects" our area, with daily balmy temperatures and dry. Interesting. Not sure I buy it, but it is what it is.

Yeah some of us have been discussing how its a very warm and dry pattern right into Mid May for SNE.nteresting Euro now agreeing
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