Damage In Tolland Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 That's not even a debate regarding your drought. That fact that we agree should tell you something. I know Ryan would agree too.Its ok to not follow Wills ideas you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 When most of us say "Boring"...we mean from a metoeorlogical perspective. I think 60s and sun is perfect weather for golf or being outdoors. So not boring for being outside. But if you are looking to track something like storms, extreme temps, etc...then this pattern is about as boring as it gets. However, if you find high pressures sitting near or overhead for 5 days in a row exciting from a met perspective, then you could say this is also meteorologically exciting weather. I think msot would disagree, but "exciting or "boring" are subjective terms anyway. Agreed -- I guess a better way to put it for me is, if the weather is not providing for excitement, there is so many other things we can do when the weather is like this, to keep us entertained, that it's kind of a toss-up for me. But yeah... I want crispy CBs, blizzards, hurricanes, floods, Earthquakes, super novas, dogs and cats living together in a crushing dystopian landscape that smolders in the aftermath of utter chaos, just like the next completely sane individual. Haha... oh man that's funny. Seriously though, I am just grateful beyond the dreams of humility that it we have, so far, not had to suffer a protracted cold non-snowy mud season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Its ok to not follow Wills ideas you know. If we have months of very dry weather, than you have a point. But, you did this exact thing last year. This is a new aspect to your hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 If we have months of very dry weather, than you have a point. But, you did this exact thing last year. This is a new aspect to your hype.There is no hype. It's dry. Very dry in fact. Is it damaging? No not yet. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 There is no hype. It's dry. Very dry in fact. Is it damaging? No not yet. That's all Eh, a little dusty topsoil is ok. It doesn't take much to wipe out the deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Boring for one, bring it on for another. That bolded statement above made me want to, how do they say, get naked? Ha ha! yeah, to each his/her own... Curiously, what is it exactly about that bolded characteristic weather type that attracts you? We talk plenty about our memories of deep snow in our your, or run ins with wall-clouds in the summer (albeit rare around here...), and these derive nostalgia; versed over and over and over in posts, that is proven. But no one really elaborates on what it is about slate gray, cold, life stealing dreariness that makes them aroused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 New climate? No... The climate is changing. I suppose on some reasonable level one has to conclude that at some point in a period of climate change, a certain characteristic weather that is consistent with that climate vector is going to be probable. Otherwise, the climate isn't changing -- the two are inextricably linked. Duh. But, we have to also remember that the curve of the climate change has some vagarious nature to it, too. There are so many factors that play a role there. Differential-nested solar cycling, atmospheric chemistry pertaining both to natural and anthropomorphic sources, ... enter any who-what-knows sci fi factors here. In the end the climate does not change along a smooth behavior -- it is serrated, with ups and downs. We could still have a 10 -year brutally cold snowy winter stint, and still have the Global temps edging upward during that time. Or, we could have a Tambora or something and then all bets are off. Blaming a series of good Aprils on such a bumpy ride is really dubious at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 No... The climate is changing. I suppose on some reasonable level one has to conclude that at some point in a period of climate change, a certain characteristic weather that is consistent with that climate vector is going to be probable. Otherwise, the climate isn't changing -- the two are inextricably linked. Duh. But, we have to also remember that the curve of the climate change has some vagarious nature to it, too. There are so many factors that play a role there. Differential-nested solar cycling, atmospheric chemistry pertaining both to natural and anthropomorphic sources, ... enter any who-what-knows sci fi factors here. In the end the climate does not change along a smooth behavior -- it is serrated, with ups and downs. We could still have a 10 -year brutally cold snowy winter stint, and still have the Global temps edging upward during that time. Or, we could have a Tambora or something and then all bets are off. Blaming a series of good Aprils on such a bumpy ride is really dubious at best. We've had some brutal springs so in a way we are due for some nice ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 LMAO at the operational GFS ... No sooner do I opine about the risks of April and May in New England, and duh duh dunnnnnnn -- the GFS pukes out a puker pattern that locks us quintessentially into just such a scenario. ... I figure that for an outlier ... errr, not just because it is transition season, it's the GFS, and it is the extended GFS either, but because the other operational models don't look that way - yet - and have alternate teleconnector layouts from their ensemble clusters. Still, we are playing Russian Roulettes and we've clicked off 4 awesome Aprils in a row -- there's a live bullet in the chamber of this six-shooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 We've had some brutal springs so in a way we are due for some nice ones. Word! Hell ... we are owed 10 awesome springs for that bull crap fiasco of May, 2005 -- that was a hideous realization beyond the dark dreams of Tamerlan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Boring for one, bring it on for another. That bolded statement above made me want to, how do they say, get naked? Same here man, I love that weather. Days and days of gray and sheet drizzle mean relaxation and but free weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I dunno if I'd call this April awesome. It was OK...we had some hideous stretches but also some nice ones including this upcoming final week. Certainly not terrible in terms of climo, but not as nice as 2010-2012 was. April 2011 was actually kind of a bag of crap too until we had an amazing final week of the month. 2008 and 2010 are the benchmarks though. Those Aprils were really nice. 2008 seemed strange after we had been so unsettled all winter. We had a pretty brutal stretch of Aprils between about 1992-2003 on the whole. I think only like 4 were above avg temps. So we were def kind of "due" for some nicers ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Drought weenieism...we've reached new levels. lol I was thinking the same thing... so BDL sees 50% of April precipitation with a 1.5" deficit. Who cares? One event or a strong line of slow moving t-storms can erase that deficit in an hour. Its not like we are 10" below average for the year or something... we are talking amounts that can be made up in one event. Its like panicking in late December because you are 10" below normal in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Will and Scooter never have their own ideas. They always piggyback off each other. I challenge anyone to find one event or post where they differ or disagree. Interesting Usually because they are the voice of reason... many of us usually agree with their view points as well. Not everyone stays awake at night worrying about 1-2 inches under normal in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 There's some legitimacy to growing drought concerns, especially if we're not seeing much measurable precipitation for the next week or so. Remember "average" daily precip is about 0.14", so a deficit can add up quickly in these parts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Usually because they are the voice of reason... many of us usually agree with their view points as well. Not everyone stays awake at night worrying about 1-2 inches under normal in April. Lol. What a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Ha ha! yeah, to each his/her own... Curiously, what is it exactly about that bolded characteristic weather type that attracts you? We talk plenty about our memories of deep snow in our your, or run ins with wall-clouds in the summer (albeit rare around here...), and these derive nostalgia; versed over and over and over in posts, that is proven. But no one really elaborates on what it is about slate gray, cold, life stealing dreariness that makes them aroused. The naked part was tongue in cheek. I love the cold. If it's not the cold season, then I prefer it to be tepid at the most. I was stationed at Point Barrow, Alaska during the late 70's and early 80's. I became accustomed to the cold. Once I left, I went straight back to the desert of California and then to Alabama. What a shock to the system! I swore off heat and humidity forever from that time forward. I do everything I can do to avoid it. As far as the slate gray skies and driving drizzle, it might have to do with my family heritage and it brings back good memories. My maternal Grandfather was a maritime sailor. My Dad and paternal grandfather were fishermen, Dad in Nova Scotia and pap in Newfoundland. I have fond memories going with my Dad and Pap when they went out on the seas. And when I see those slate gray skies and the gales begin, I know that the heat will be put at bay for the time being. Do I enjoy the days where we have 60's - 70's and low humidity? Of course I do. I would be lying if I said I didn't. But give me 40's, a driving gale, a crackling fire and my wife by my side and I am right at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 There's some legitimacy to growing drought concerns, especially if we're not seeing much measurable precipitation for the next week or so. Remember "average" daily precip is about 0.14", so a deficit can add up quickly in these parts... We'd still need to be really dry for another month or two for it to become a major issue. Even the short term drought indicators are barely moderate for a section of CT and less than that for the rest of SNE....and short term is only concerning for small stream flows and top soil moisture really. I'd think brush fires are a pretty low danger at this point as foliage is starting to come out. If we are parched through May, then I think we'd have some more issues pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 There's some legitimacy to growing drought concerns, especially if we're not seeing much measurable precipitation for the next week or so. Remember "average" daily precip is about 0.14", so a deficit can add up quickly in these parts... What are the concerns though? Some brown grass? Its not like we are in the southwest after the Sierra only had 50% of normal snowpack this past winter...that's probably a real concern. It takes a big time drought to actually cause issues in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Lol. What a weenie I know, I was thinking the same thing reading all the drought hype in April. Then again, it isn't too surprising, just like we expect you to panic about a snowless winter in December if it hasn't started snowing feet for days and days by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 There's some legitimacy to growing drought concerns, especially if we're not seeing much measurable precipitation for the next week or so. Remember "average" daily precip is about 0.14", so a deficit can add up quickly in these parts... Hydrological drought occurs when low water supply becomes evident, especially in streams, reservoirs, and groundwater levels, usually after many months of meteorological drought. Agricultural drought happens when crops become affected. And socioeconomic drought relates the supply and demand of various commodities to drought. Meteorological drought can begin and end rapidly, while hydrological drought takes much longer to develop and then recover. Many different indices have been developed over the decades to measure drought in these various sectors. The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts drought integrated across all time scales and differentiates between agricultural and hydrological impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Palmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Crop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I know we're far from a drought, but trying to help Kev make a marginal case. Can't say I didn't try! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I know we're far from a drought, but trying to help Kev make a marginal case. Can't say I didn't try! streamflows are low just below normal so he has that to hang his hat on . Will only take one storm in the next two weeks to change that. I would be concerned if in the middle of June and we have three months of way below pecip,.obviously East of CCT to the Mass coast has no concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWeSBFiKmmU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Last year was actually the first year since 2001 that CT had a palmer drought index below the 100 year average. The 1960s as a reference has 7 of the 10 years that decade below the average including the most severe on record and 3rd most severe on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Last year was actually the first year since 2001 that CT had a palmer drought index below the 100 year average. The 1960s as a reference has 7 of the 10 years that decade below the average including the most severe on record and 3rd most severe on record. Year-to-date, I pulled up the numbers and we're obviously running well above in terms of rainfall, but Bradley is close-ish of the stations I looked at. Rainfall through April 24... 2013 - 9.78 2012 - 8.92 AVG - 12.71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Last year was actually the first year since 2001 that CT had a palmer drought index below the 100 year average. The 1960s as a reference has 7 of the 10 years that decade below the average including the most severe on record and 3rd most severe on record. Yeah droughts around here are generally NBD for interests other than agriculture. The drought in the 1960s even didn't threaten most public water supplies even though it was the most substantial drought of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Yeah droughts around here are generally NBD for interests other than agriculture. The drought in the 1960s even didn't threaten most public water supplies even though it was the most substantial drought of the century. Right...what the records indicate for all the New England states is that droughts here are relatively easy to handle. We don't hear folktales about the drought of the 1960s even though they are the worst on record like we do for the central US circa '30s/'50s. I'm sure they caused some strain to some of the argiculture like northeast corn...but all in all, they are NBD as you said. We are way more prone to severe flooding than droughts. Our folktales we hear are about the floods of 1936, 1955, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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