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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


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Look what happened yesterday. 72-78 was common. Interior will toast nicely once past tomorrow. I see a lot of 67-68's for Sat and beyond. You can bet those are too cool

850mb temperatures were around 11C. That favored highs in the mid to upper 70's with full sunshine and NO downsloping, lol.

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And there wasn't one forecast from any outlet that had anything higher than 71-72. That's the point. Tack on a couple if degrees to daytime highs

Or stray away from MOS.

 

Here are some numbers...

6z MAV forecast for MMK was 69. Actual was 69.

DXR - high, 70

IJD - high, 73

BDL - high, 75

 

I didn't save MOS forecasts for the other areas, but the guidance wasn't THAT bad. NAM showed widespread low to mid-70's.

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Hyping? All I'm doing is saying take temps a few degrees warmer than strictly MOS and 850's, no hype with that. It's boring but its just a discussion. You don't have to partake

850's pretty much nailed it. MOS was close.

 

You could argue tacking on 1, perhaps 2 degrees for dry soil conditions as the dry stretch continues...

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Hyping? All I'm doing is saying take temps a few degrees warmer than strictly MOS and 850's, no hype with that. It's boring but its just a discussion. You don't have to partake

 

 

Lol...defensive these days.

 

Ill go 60s for MBY for the foreseeable future with the exception of today which will probably not make it that warm. Perfect weather.  

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Hyping? All I'm doing is saying take temps a few degrees warmer than strictly MOS and 850's, no hype with that. It's boring but its just a discussion. You don't have to partake

 

I wish it were that easy. You have to look at wind direction and mixing potential. Just nice Spring wx.

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Had a good class with DEEP rep last night regarding fighting brush fires; pretty informative about our terrain in CT and tree type; who would of thought Huckleberry bush would be so flammable!  Will enjoy the next 7 days, the patches in my lawn that I just loamed and seeded may not.

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Purely an opinion, so take this for what it is worth.   I do not find long stretches of beautiful weather (subjective) to be boring.  Not even close!   

 

For me, "boring weather" is when the temperature is stuck at 42, day and night, with periodic light rain and drizzle, amid a froth of perpetual North Atlantic invasion that penetrates clear to Buffalo, and it lasts for days and days and days and days, keeping you virtually imprisoned.  

 

THAT is boring.  I have written extensively (no need to go into it again) about some infamy months of Aprils and Mays of the past.  So far quite objectively we are dodging a major statistical bullet that suggests we suffer an alternate plight, for what?  A 4th year in a row?   What is a break in that continuity is perhaps the positive departures; so far "I think" most sites are closer to normal for April.  But, in terms of overall appeal, in having more sun than cloud days, and only a couple of single-day inclement events, the characteristic is the same -- interesting string of decent Aprils.

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Purely an opinion, so take this for what it is worth. I do not find long stretches of beautiful weather (subjective) to be boring. Not even close!

For me, "boring weather" is when the temperature is stuck at 42, day and night, with periodic light rain and drizzle, amid a froth of perpetual North Atlantic invasion that penetrates clear to Buffalo, and it lasts for days and days and days and days, keeping you virtually imprisoned.

THAT is boring. I have written extensively (no need to go into it again) about some infamy months of Aprils and Mays of the past. So far quite objectively we are dodging a major statistical bullet that suggests we suffer an alternate plight, for what? A 4th year in a row? What is a break in that continuity is perhaps the positive departures; so far "I think" most sites are closer to normal for April. But, in terms of overall appeal, in having more sun than cloud days, and only a couple of single-day inclement events, the characteristic is the same -- interesting string of decent Aprils.

New climate?
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Purely an opinion, so take this for what it is worth.   I do not find long stretches of beautiful weather (subjective) to be boring.  Not even close!   

 

For me, "boring weather" is when the temperature is stuck at 42, day and night, with periodic light rain and drizzle, amid a froth of perpetual North Atlantic invasion that penetrates clear to Buffalo, and it lasts for days and days and days and days, keeping you virtually imprisoned.  

 

THAT is boring.  I have written extensively (no need to go into it again) about some infamy months of Aprils and Mays of the past.  So far quite objectively we are dodging a major statistical bullet that suggests we suffer an alternate plight, for what?  A 4th year in a row?   What is a break in that continuity is perhaps the positive departures; so far "I think" most sites are closer to normal for April.  But, in terms of overall appeal, in having more sun than cloud days, and only a couple of single-day inclement events, the characteristic is the same -- interesting string of decent Aprils.

 

 

When most of us say "Boring"...we mean from a metoeorlogical perspective.

 

I think 60s and sun is perfect weather for golf or being outdoors. So not boring for being outside. But if you are looking to track something like storms, extreme temps, etc...then this pattern is about as boring as it gets. However, if you find high pressures sitting near or overhead for 5 days in a row exciting from a met perspective, then you could say this is also meteorologically exciting weather. I think msot would disagree, but "exciting or "boring" are subjective terms anyway.

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Will and Scooter never have their own ideas. They always piggyback off each other. I challenge anyone to find one event or post where they differ or disagree. Interesting

 

That's not even a debate regarding your drought. That fact that we agree should tell you something. I know Ryan would agree too. 

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Will and Scooter never have their own ideas. They always piggyback off each other. I challenge anyone to find one event or post where they differ or disagree. Interesting

 

 

I disagreed with him somewhat in the March 6-7 event...he was more pessimistic than me.

 

He had more caution flags than me for 2/27 which turned out right.

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Purely an opinion, so take this for what it is worth.   I do not find long stretches of beautiful weather (subjective) to be boring.  Not even close!   

 

For me, "boring weather" is when the temperature is stuck at 42, day and night, with periodic light rain and drizzle, amid a froth of perpetual North Atlantic invasion that penetrates clear to Buffalo, and it lasts for days and days and days and days, keeping you virtually imprisoned.

 

THAT is boring.  I have written extensively (no need to go into it again) about some infamy months of Aprils and Mays of the past.  So far quite objectively we are dodging a major statistical bullet that suggests we suffer an alternate plight, for what?  A 4th year in a row?   What is a break in that continuity is perhaps the positive departures; so far "I think" most sites are closer to normal for April.  But, in terms of overall appeal, in having more sun than cloud days, and only a couple of single-day inclement events, the characteristic is the same -- interesting string of decent Aprils.

 

Boring for one, bring it on for another. That bolded statement above made me want to, how do they say, get naked?

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