2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

[Sugarloaf1989]

Add at least 3-5 degrees each day to those high temps with dry ground and April sun and mixing

[ORH_wxman]

 

Add at least 3-5 degrees each day to those high temps with dry ground and April sun and mixing

 

Mixing is poor when high pressure is right overhead or slightly to our east. If it sinks further south, we'd get better mixing.

[Damage In Tolland]

Mixing is poor when high pressure is right overhead or slightly to our east. If it sinks further south, we'd get better mixing.

I would go 73-76 at BDL every day starting Saturday. And 67-71 here and ORH

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Hit 66 here but falling back with the ocean breeze.  

[Quincy]

I would go 73-76 at BDL every day starting Saturday. And 67-71 here and ORH

We'll need to bump this next week for verification purposes.

[free_man]

Hopefully a couple storms later tonight, before we entire the most boring wx pattern of our lives.

[Quincy]

Hopefully a couple storms later tonight, before we entire the most boring wx pattern of our lives.

Nah, it looks like the line will collapse as it moves east of the Appalachians. Just a few rain drops tonight. I wouldn't even expect much rainfall for our parts, unfortunately. (fortunately for Kevin)

[ORH_wxman]

 

It's alright...severe wx season doesn't kick in for another few weeks really for us.

 

Yeah, 2nd half of May is realistically when we could start expecting a couple threats. Every now and then we'll get something before that, but they tend to be really localized and marginal.

[CT Rain]

Looks amazing over the next week to get out on the golf course for the first time this season. Lots of 60s and sunshine with some low 70s probable in the lower spots. That high from the northeast is just anchored over us for days so it should be limited cloudiness.

But extremely boring as Ryan said if you like exciting weather.

 

If that high was 500 miles northwest it would be extremely boring and extremely ugly (especially for BOS) so I guess we'll take extremely boring and nice lol

[ORH_wxman]

 

If that high was 500 miles northwest it would be extremely boring and extremely ugly (especially for BOS) so I guess we'll take extremely boring and nice lol

 

Yeah it would be backdoor puke...so we'll take the mostly sunny and boring. Monday or Tuesday (dpending on which model you believe) has a little weakness in the flow, so that day might be more cloudy, but overall nothing to complain about for late April/early May. Might turn out to be nothing at all.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well well well.... ain't THAT an exceptionally rare series of days as modeled by the Euro.   First of all, rarely during the spring, when the Omega construct to the flow is more commonly found, does that Omega park the centroid ridge component squarely and perfectly to protect New England for like 7 to 10 straight days of spring orgasmotron weather. 

 

It is far more common to have one of the book ended trough nodes be your partner, in which case you get dystopic weather ... seemingly unrelenting.   There are other ways the pattern can screw, but speaking just to Omegas, that is a very rare configuration there.   

 

Thing is, most guidances take our region through an extended period of quiescence in one way or the other.   Meh, the Euro's going to change significantly ...particularly during error prone transition season and it being beyond D5.  so whatever...

[Quincy]

If BDL doesn't observe any measurable precipitation tonight (which could happen), there's an outside shot at the last 10 days of April being void of rainfall. That doesn't happen very often.

[Damage In Tolland]

SNE is burning . Sorry Ginx

@capecodweather: Last 60 days % of normal precip. Good on the Cape, not so much elsewhere. Going to get worse over next 10 days: http://t.co/sO5KkWfdTv

[Ginx snewx]

SNE is burning . Sorry Ginx

@capecodweather: Last 60 days % of normal precip. Good on the Cape, not so much elsewhere. Going to get worse over next 10 days: http://t.co/sO5KkWfdTv

sorry for what? keep me abreast of all the major brush fires you encounter, 

[dendrite]

74.0F FTW.

 

mid 70s throughout most of NH. Even 75F up to HIE.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

sorry for what? keep me abreast of all the major brush fires you encounter,

Firefighting planes to be positioned near Tolland? Some members doing the fire dance, some looking for every dirty east wind, others looking for the last snowbanks next to a cave in the deep woods.

[CT Rain]

If BDL doesn't observe any measurable precipitation tonight (which could happen), there's an outside shot at the last 10 days of April being void of rainfall. That doesn't happen very often.

 

I feel like April is feast of famine. Prone to long stretches of either nice or ugly weather as the pattern gets sort of convoluted after winter. 

[dendrite]

Anyways...I said I'd look back at some EDT vs EST CLI's for CON. 4/20 and 4/21 look like good examples.

 

The AM min for CON on 4/20/13 was 42F, but that got wiped out by early evening. The 4z (12am EDT) temp was 38F. The 5z (12am EST) temp was 37F with a 24hr min of 37F. The min in the CLI was 37F at 1157PM LST.

 

We never radiated well that night, but we did the following night so the low on the 21st was again late in the day. The 4z temp was 30F and the 5z temp was 28F with a 24hr min of 27F (fell to 27F in between 4z and 5z). The min in the CLI was 27F at 1149PM LST.

 

So this is definitely a BOX issue.

[Quincy]

I feel like April is feast of famine. Prone to long stretches of either nice or ugly weather as the gets sort of convoluted after winter. 

Yes. A lot of people have been asking why weren't not consistently warm. Average high might be in the low to mid-60's, but we usually don't see long stretches close to that range (which we are expecting over the next several days). Often we get socked in the 40's/50's with typical April showers or get spoiled and see days in the 70's and 80's.

[weatherwiz]

If we don't get some meaningful precip soon, as we move deeper into the spring and start getting more in the way of 70's and 80's, especially if that occurs with low dews, we could start seeing increased brush fire risk along with brush fires.

[Ginx snewx]

Firefighting planes to be positioned near Tolland? Some members doing the fire dance, some looking for every dirty east wind, others looking for the last snowbanks next to a cave in the deep woods.

He has become a lampoon of himself. What used to be intelligent thought out posts(talking Eastern US days) are now hyped up buffoonery, we all joke but every post now are just lame attempts at hype,no wonder Phil packed his bags. Fantastic stretch of weather coming up, couple of showers tonight and Friday night then perfection, Upper 60's and dry, like it should be. Little wind except for afternoon sea breezes. 

[dendrite]

I looked back at a random day for ORH where the min was late in the day in the summer. I cherry picked 7/13/2011.

 

The AM min was a balmy 68F. After getting into the low 80s we had a nice fropa and cooldown. At 4z ORH was down to 62F. The 5z temp and 24hr min were 60F. Looking back at the July 2011 F6, the min for the date was 60F. So they used 5z-5z then.

[dendrite]

7/18/2012 for ORH

 

AM min was a stifling 76F. The late day 4z was 73F and 5z/24hr min were 71F. The F6 has a low of 71F. So I guess that clears last year as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

He has become a lampoon of himself. What used to be intelligent thought out posts(talking Eastern US days) are now hyped up buffoonery, we all joke but every post now are just lame attempts at hype,no wonder Phil packed his bags. Fantastic stretch of weather coming up, couple of showers tonight and Friday night then perfection, Upper 60's and dry, like it should be. Little wind except for afternoon sea breezes.

Youve become mean and grouchy and are one of the reasons why we've lost a few good folks. It's not wet, its not lush. It's dry and We need rain. Start telling truths

[Quincy]

Youve become mean and grouchy and are one of the reasons why we've lost a few good folks. It's not wet, its not lush. It's dry and We need rain. Start telling truths

Start changing your avatar. It's time. 

[dendrite]

Start changing your avatar. It's time. 

Seasonable & Dry

[Quincy]

Seasonable & Dry

And fiery according to Kev.

[Ginx snewx]

Youve become mean and grouchy and are one of the reasons why we've lost a few good folks. It's not wet, its not lush. It's dry and We need rain. Start telling truths

[ORH_wxman]

 

If we don't get some meaningful precip soon, as we move deeper into the spring and start getting more in the way of 70's and 80's, especially if that occurs with low dews, we could start seeing increased brush fire risk along with brush fires.

 

Green out/leaf out is going to mitigate the threat of brush fires. We'd need to see really dry conditions well into the summer for it to be a major issue after we get all the foliage out.

[weatherwiz]

 

 

Green out/leaf out is going to mitigate the threat of brush fires. We'd need to see really dry conditions well into the summer for it to be a major issue after we get all the foliage out.

 

I'm sure we will be fine.  I remember during 2006 that spring was quite dry as well with numerous red flag warnings up and that summer we ended up wetter than average.