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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


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Not everyone uses DST in the world. Plus you'd have 1 23hr and 25hr day per year. The world just keeps it a flat 24hr day based on UTC. We don't change balloon and model times for DST either. In the weather world we pretend DST doesn't exist.

 

Yeah I thought I remembered a few times when they used 5Z-5Z for daily temps recently but I can't find an example. 

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Maybe they never switched when DST moved a few years ago? 

 

 

Yeah I'm not sure. But I've seen the midnight lows for a while now. Back in autumn too before we switched to standard time. I never really paid attention close enough before to notice whether we ever had post-midnight low temps for the previous day. Brian seems sure they used to do that so I believe him. But I wonder if they gave up on it because we have such a short season now of standard time. So perhaps your theory is correct.

 

Either that or we have uncovered mountains of erroneous data. :lol:

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Anyone have some archived CLI's? I'm sure some have been pasted in here.

I know for sure 5z to 5z was used before. I've seen it with those HHH airmasses where CON pulls off a ridiculous low in the 70s, but we're expecting a midday fropa which wipes it out to some degree by 5z. When I get home I'll find an example if someone doesn't beat me to it. I'm confident it worked that way recently too. Pretty sure I saw 5z lows last warm season for CON too.

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Beautiful up here today! 61F under full sunshine at home, upper 50s at 1500ft.

Ski season is winding down but there's still above normal snowpack at elevation. You need to drive to 1500ft or so before you start seeing natural snow, though that's going quickly.

Sharp gradient in snow depths left...with patches at 1500ft rising to 40" depths at 3000ft and 60" up near 4000ft. It's pretty much like a 2 foot increase per 1,000ft vertical gain at this point.

I'm personally over it now, but do enjoy going out and doing a run each day for exercise...I'd rather hike for an hour on snow and get a ski down, instead of running on the bike path or treadmill. It's fun to monitor the remaining snow but the quicker it disappears the better at this time of year. It starts to get in the way of off-season improvements on the hill and prolongs the mud season. The quicker we can melt out and get dry work roads, the less stress later in the summer from delayed project start times.

 

 

I think it does disappear pretty quickly over the next week to 10 day given a modicum of modeling accuracy - -haha.  

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Anyone have some archived CLI's? I'm sure some have been pasted in here.

I know for sure 5z to 5z was used before. I've seen it with those HHH airmasses where CON pulls off a ridiculous low in the 70s, but we're expecting a midday fropa which wipes it out to some degree by 5z. When I get home I'll find an example if someone doesn't beat me to it. I'm confident it worked that way recently too. Pretty sure I saw 5z lows last warm season for CON too.

 

Check BDR from 4/20 on the NWS site. The 11:59 was LST not LDT. Seems to be a discrepancy between BOX and other WFOs.

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Not everyone uses DST in the world. Plus you'd have 1 23hr and 25hr day per year. The world just keeps it a flat 24hr day based on UTC. We don't change balloon and model times for DST either. In the weather world we pretend DST doesn't exist.

 

Yeah, this is true ... 

 

And upon further reflection, the only flaw to the logic there really would be in assessing 1am vs midnight, is general population knowledge.   The problem is, the general population is of course less privy to any such idiosyncratic practices, so when they hear "record low for this date", they are going to automatically assume the speaker/writer/televisor means midnight to midnight time span. 

 

But as far as time convention, midnight has no real physical meaning to universe - you can set the time spans to be whatever you want.   

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So low/mid 60s is a top 10 day...how can you say what a terrible summer 1992 was??!!!! You would love that if you like days like today.

 

Not that you or anyone asked, but I remember 1992, and it really was not nearly as bad as 2000.  Just sayin'    

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Not that you or anyone asked, but I remember 1992, and it really was not nearly as bad as 2000.  Just sayin'    

 

 

1992 was colder than 2000 actually...objectively anyway. I do remember some very cold days in 2000 as well. The summer as a whole in '92 was about 1F colder on average here than 2000.

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71 here at my place -- warmest of the year.  Lot's of backyard set ups are ticking in at 70 to 73, and FIT is officially 70 as of the 1pm ob, up 5F from the previous hour!   With 850s around 10F, this could really get down right warm, not just balmy, in the interior. 

 

Always go warmer in full sun, late April.... the mantra rings true today! 

 

BOS is stagnated at 58, but their wind flipped around to SE... at 6 to 9kts, it's a flag wobbler.  It will be interesting to see if they get a light warm flash type high.  The wind in the interior is now SW or WSW, were it's between 63 and 71F, and these temps will probably add another 5 to 7 through 5pm.  Could see BOS popping up for a late high.  

 

Man, my nerdlyness knows no bounds!

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1992 was colder than 2000 actually...objectively anyway. I do remember some very cold days in 2000 as well. The summer as a whole in '92 was about 1F colder on average here than 2000.

 

 

Yeah, probably a sensible vs fact sort of debate on those two.   I just remember painting houses that summer for College Pro, and there were some warm sun truncated by thunderstorm days in there.   But I wasn't outdoors nearly as much in 2000, so I'm probably full of crap.  I just remember going on runs in 2000, and there were a lot of days where streets didn't seem to really dry, and there were low topped nimbo cu structures quite often.  

 

interesting.

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Full leaf out by end of next week?

 

Close to it - sure.   We are really in a bud popping explosion here in the Nashoba Valley area N of Rt 2.  The broad leaf maples are putting out fragrance at this point, and every other deciduous species is in some stage of bud-out.  With nights in the 40s to low 50s, and highs routinely in the 60s and 70s, I bet the country side transforms with a certain rapidity.

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Close to it - sure. We are really in a bud popping explosion here in the Nashoba Valley area N of Rt 2. The broad leaf maples are putting out fragrance at this point, and every other deciduous species is in some stage of bud-out. With nights in the 40s to low 50s, and highs routinely in the 60s and 70s, I bet the country side transforIms with a certain rapidity.

Hopefully the fires don't take them first.
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Full leaf out by end of next week?

 

 

Hopefully the fires don't take them first.

Here is the conundrum, rapid green up of brush, (low level fuel source) then brush fires are mitigated. The biggest period of danger was early April. Minor fires happen but with green up spread is reduced and confined to low level type fires. Onshore flow at times and the possibility of a cutoff scenario seem to indicate this years fire season will not rival bad years.

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Close to it - sure.   We are really in a bud popping explosion here in the Nashoba Valley area N of Rt 2.  The broad leaf maples are putting out fragrance at this point, and every other deciduous species is in some stage of bud-out.  With nights in the 40s to low 50s, and highs routinely in the 60s and 70s, I bet the country side transforms with a certain rapidity.

First forsythia opened today here in my area of Central NH.  This time last year we were getting close to full leave out.  Things will go rapidly from here!

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Yeah I'm not sure. But I've seen the midnight lows for a while now. Back in autumn too before we switched to standard time. I never really paid attention close enough before to notice whether we ever had post-midnight low temps for the previous day. Brian seems sure they used to do that so I believe him. But I wonder if they gave up on it because we have such a short season now of standard time. So perhaps your theory is correct.

 

Either that or we have uncovered mountains of erroneous data. :lol:

 

global warming cancel due to DST?

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