2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

[CoastalWx]

Fireworks disappearing into the low overcast and drizzle.

 

LOL, that's what I remember the most. Funny how random days really stick out going back that far. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Thankfully nothing like that summer can ever happen again with this new climate we live in

[weatherMA]

Thankfully nothing like that summer can ever happen again with this new climate we live in

[ORH_wxman]

Thankfully nothing like that summer can ever happen again with this new climate we live in

 

 

Well we did have the coldest June/July couplet on record here in 2009.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Thankfully nothing like that summer can ever happen again with this new climate we live in

 

 

I can quite easily with any number of possible major volcanic eruption sites around the world. Katla in Iceland being one that is well overdue for an eruption.

[ORH_wxman]

Kevin also said ad nauseum that we could not get a cold and snowy March anymore in our new climate.

[Damage In Tolland]

Kevin also said ad nauseum that we could not get a cold and snowy March anymore in our new climate.

I see things, I hear things

[CT Rain]

July 4th 1992. Low clouds and 58F. I remember quite well.

 

I remember it as well. Was on the Cape. One of the only ugly stretches we had for the Julys we spent out there. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

59F here, nice day overall, but with a slightly chilly breeze.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Kevin also said ad nauseum that we could not get a cold and snowy March anymore in our new climate.

 

 

March is a spring month.

[Typhoon Tip]

That may need to be updated. ORH hit 38F at 5z so the record was only tied.

 

Yeah, I wondered if something like that would happen, and I mentioned it to Will -- the synopsis from yesterday into this morning was that the column was warming from the top down.  Most sites did in fact show steady to slowly rising temperatures from 6pm onward, last evening.  

 

I think it is really more interesting that the backside of the weakening coastal defaulted into a warm sector.   

 

Incredible temperature rises down here this morning.  FIT jumped to 65 already.  I'm 67... Could be mid 70s in these interior sections.    Looks like the NAM and Euro are going to bust cold for the CP.   58 at "sticks out in the water" Logan and the skies are about an hour from opening up clear, altogether, with winds supposedly offshore.  Could see that flip though -- we'll see. 

[CT Rain]

68/45 here in West Hartford. It's a beaut! Joe must be loving today. 

[Quincy]

That may need to be updated. ORH hit 38F at 5z so the record was only tied.

5z is 1 a.m., right?

 

They were at 37F up through 12:35 a.m.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/obhistory.php?station=ORH&network=MA_ASOS

[Typhoon Tip]

March is a spring month.

 

 

Careful  ... you may offend some folk - ha

 

I never looked into it, but have always wondered, why NOAA delineates March 1 as the Meteorological first day of spring, but I suspect it is for numeral convenience and order with months and days.   But most years, March is really not very spring like for people living along 40 N. In fact, probably half the Marches that could be argued even down to the 35th parallel.   The last several Marches were fantastically positively departed, enough even to trigger the whole of green-up to be as much as a month early (last year).  That was true for 3 or even 4 years running, though last year was the most extreme.  Over a 100 years though?  Heh, no, not even close.  

 

I suppose we could wildly digress into a GW debate.  Yeah ...it's possible -- hell I just read a paper about the end of winter as we know it by the year 3,000.  If there is any truth to that, there you go.   

[dendrite]

5z is 1 a.m., right?

They were at 37F up through 12:35 a.m.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/obhistory.php?station=ORH&network=MA_ASOS

The climo day runs on standard time which is 1am EDT to 1am EDT this time of year (5z to 5z always to keep it simple). The 454z ob was 38F (T0033 and 24hr max was 40033 in the remarks). So going by the METARs the high was 38F and there didn't seem to be any errors. I think the CLI, RER, and F6 are wrong with the 37F.

[CT Rain]

5z is 1 a.m., right?

 

They were at 37F up through 12:35 a.m.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/obhistory.php?station=ORH&network=MA_ASOS

 

I think local records are done through midnight local standard time.... not local daylight. So the daily high/low would be through 5z. 

[CT Rain]

The climo day runs on standard time which is 1am EDT to 1am EDT this time of year (5z to 5z always to keep it simple). The 454z ob was 38F (T0033 and 24hr max was 40033 in the remarks). So going by the METARs the high was 38F and there didn't seem to be any errors. I think the CLI, RER, and F6 are wrong with the 37F.

 

Yeah 5Z-5Z... I think you're correct that the products are wrong. 

[ORH_wxman]

The climo day runs on standard time which is 1am EDT to 1am EDT this time of year (5z to 5z always to keep it simple). The 454z ob was 38F (T0033 and 24hr max was 40033 in the remarks). So going by the METARs the high was 38F and there didn't seem to be any errors. I think the CLI, RER, and F6 are wrong with the 37F.

 

 

I've always seen it go from midnight to midnight...not 05z to 05z or 06z to 06z. I used to think they did that too but I've seen countless examples since then of them using the low temp just before midnight when a cold front goes through and not the lower temp obs at 1am.

[powderfreak]

It was a great summer. Didn't need the ACs and so many great days for being outside.

As long as it is sunny, it really doesn't matter if its 74F or 84F...it's great to be outside in. I do enjoy the summers up here where we often get into the 80s during the day, but then fall into the 45-55 range at night. As long as it cools off for sleeping at night, I don't care all that much about the daytime temps.

A perfect summer would never see dews go above like 65F.

[Typhoon Tip]

As long as it is sunny, it really doesn't matter if its 74F or 84F...it's great to be outside in. I do enjoy the summers up here where we often get into the 80s during the day, but then fall into the 45-55 range at night. As long as it cools off for sleeping at night, I don't care all that much about the daytime temps.

A perfect summer would never see dews go above like 65F.

 

What's it like up there today?   

 

I was just looking over the operational runs and it looks like what ever ski season remains will probably really shut down.  We appear destined to 6 day stint of static +5 to +9 850mb temperatures throughout southern Ontario, the OV and NE regions right out into the extended la-la range in the means, with flows tending off shore and low RH.  It's like 75 F in the valleys every day under blue bird skies.   Looks like 75/47 type stuff for an extended period, give or take some.  But I wonder what that would mean for 3,000 to 5,000 ' elevations.   

[CT Rain]

I've always seen it go from midnight to midnight...not 05z to 05z or 06z to 06z. I used to think they did that too but I've seen countless examples since then of them using the low temp just before midnight when a cold front goes through and not the lower temp obs at 1am.

 

The daily climate report lists the times as "LST" not "LDT" though. 

[dendrite]

I've always seen it go from midnight to midnight...not 05z to 05z or 06z to 06z. I used to think they did that too but I've seen countless examples since then of them using the low temp just before midnight when a cold front goes through and not the lower temp obs at 1am.

I will bet my house that's wrong. I've always seen CON dailies based off of 5z cutoffs in summer. That's why the 4/xxxxnnnn coding in the METAR is always at 5z.

[CT Rain]

I've always seen it go from midnight to midnight...not 05z to 05z or 06z to 06z. I used to think they did that too but I've seen countless examples since then of them using the low temp just before midnight when a cold front goes through and not the lower temp obs at 1am.

 

Wow... you're right! They did it on 4/20 too. 

 

List the low as 37F at 11:59 p.m. when it was really 35F at 454 UTC. 

[CT Rain]

I will bet my house that's wrong. I've always seen CON dailies based off of 5z cutoffs in summer. That's why the 4/xxxxnnnn coding in the METAR is always at 5z.

 

It's definitely supposed to be 5z-5z. The report itself specifially says it's LST not LDT... so the times are all wrong.

[ORH_wxman]

I will bet my house that's wrong. I've always seen CON dailies based off of 5z cutoffs in summer. That's why the 4/xxxxnnnn coding in the METAR is always at 5z.

 

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=nh&prodtype=climate#RTPGYX

 

They say midnight there. CON's high is also listed at 11:59pm...but Ryan is right, it says LST. But I've seen that for a while now. I don't think they switch back and forth...unless they have been making errors for over a year.

[Typhoon Tip]

The climo day runs on standard time which is 1am EDT to 1am EDT this time of year (5z to 5z always to keep it simple). The 454z ob was 38F (T0033 and 24hr max was 40033 in the remarks). So going by the METARs the high was 38F and there didn't seem to be any errors. I think the CLI, RER, and F6 are wrong with the 37F.

 

I can envision a reality where that is the case, but it is flawed logic to me.  The calendar date ends and begins at midnight, period.   Calling any temperature that occurs between that hour and 1 am as part of the previous day, is conceptually flawed for such obvious reason, do we really have to go there -- 

 

Be that as it may, it's about a strange as calling March 1 the first day of spring for 40 N, but they still do it.   

 

But ... what else can we expect out of a government operation. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I bet it is an automation thing.  Since the standardized time convention uses LST,  they simply have not developed any applications that go in and check at 11:59, so they rely on people to go in and take note of the temperature at the time.   

[dendrite]

I can envision a reality where that is the case, but it is flawed logic to me. The calendar date ends and begins at midnight, period. Calling any temperature that occurs between that hour and 1 am as part of the previous day, is conceptually flawed for such obvious reason, do we really have to go there --

Be that as it may, it's about a strange as calling March 1 the first day of spring for 40 N, but they still do it.

But ... what else can we expect out of a government operation.

Not everyone uses DST in the world. Plus you'd have 1 23hr and 25hr day per year. The world just keeps it a flat 24hr day based on UTC. We don't change balloon and model times for DST either. In the weather world we pretend DST doesn't exist.

[CT Rain]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=nh&prodtype=climate#RTPGYX

 

They say midnight there. CON's high is also listed at 11:59pm...but Ryan is right, it says LST. But I've seen that for a while now. I don't think they switch back and forth...unless they have been making errors for over a year.

 

Maybe they never switched when DST moved a few years ago? 

[powderfreak]

What's it like up there today?

I was just looking over the operational runs and it looks like what ever ski season remains will probably really shut down. We appear destined to 6 day stint of static +5 to +9 850mb temperatures throughout southern Ontario, the OV and NE regions right out into the extended la-la range in the means, with flows tending off shore and low RH. It's like 75 F in the valleys every day under blue bird skies. Looks like 75/47 type stuff for an extended period, give or take some. But I wonder what that would mean for 3,000 to 5,000 ' elevations.

Beautiful up here today! 61F under full sunshine at home, upper 50s at 1500ft.

Ski season is winding down but there's still above normal snowpack at elevation. You need to drive to 1500ft or so before you start seeing natural snow, though that's going quickly.

Sharp gradient in snow depths left...with patches at 1500ft rising to 40" depths at 3000ft and 60" up near 4000ft. It's pretty much like a 2 foot increase per 1,000ft vertical gain at this point.

I'm personally over it now, but do enjoy going out and doing a run each day for exercise...I'd rather hike for an hour on snow and get a ski down, instead of running on the bike path or treadmill. It's fun to monitor the remaining snow but the quicker it disappears the better at this time of year. It starts to get in the way of off-season improvements on the hill and prolongs the mud season. The quicker we can melt out and get dry work roads, the less stress later in the summer from delayed project start times.