2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

[weatherwiz]

Nice day out today almost 60 here with little wind.

Just came outside with my daughter and saw something I'd never seen. It was basically a dust devil-esque type feature but with leaves. Not like in a parking lot of a strip mall where you'll get them rotating in a corner and dissipate quickly. It actually traveled across my yard, went though two rows of blueberry bushes I have and shook them pretty well. Was loud with the leaves smacking up against the branches, it then traveled another 500 feet across my yard, toward my neighbors yard and through another row of trees and over their house and kept going. By that time my viewpoint allowed me to see the leaves spiraling around at least 2-300 feet up in the air. Bizarre as there was otherwise only a calm and variable wind before and after it.

 

In 2006, my senior year of high school, I was outside and we were getting ready for our baseball game.  It was a hot afternoon, temps well into the 80's and it was breezy out, but nothing extreme.  Where the field was located it was always breezy.  Anyways, all of a sudden a massive gust of wind kicked in, and literally about 10' from me a whirlwind of sand kicked up and picked up small pebbles and threw them and it hurt like HELL and the swirl of dust/pebbles literally was over 100' tall.  It came threw, knocked the coach off the bench, picked up the equipment box (weighed around 10 lbs) several feet into the air, threw it, took my notebook full of papers, and carried them well into the air and it also took the umpire's check.  The check was found 2 days later on someone's lawn in South Windsor I believe it was...our game was in West Hartford...a solid 20-25 miles away or so.  

 

The dust devil went on to travel across the entire field and dissipated about 1000' later...still with papers flying now several hundred feet up into the air.  It was crazy. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nice day out today almost 60 here with little wind.

Just came outside with my daughter and saw something I'd never seen. It was basically a dust devil-esque type feature but with leaves. Not like in a parking lot of a strip mall where you'll get them rotating in a corner and dissipate quickly. It actually traveled across my yard, went though two rows of blueberry bushes I have and shook them pretty well. Was loud with the leaves smacking up against the branches, it then traveled another 500 feet across my yard, toward my neighbors yard and through another row of trees and over their house and kept going. By that time my viewpoint allowed me to see the leaves spiraling around at least 2-300 feet up in the air. Bizarre as there was otherwise only a calm and variable wind before and after it.

 

I believe it is more common to get devil activity with variable wind than it is when the wind is humming.  The reason why is parcel lift/buoyancy doesn't have a chance to get unstable in a well mixed environment.  Devil kinematic requires good heating at the surface, such that very low-level lapse rates are temporarily super-adiabatic -- a parcel then lifts skyward and creates a bit of low pressure as it rises, causing air to run inward underneath.  If circumstantially some angular momentum is imparted to the inward moving air, the rising parcel "stretches" that vorticity, and it spirals up into a devil.  

 

There's some pretty cool videos on the web of devils that were actually EFO and did some minor damage.   

[Typhoon Tip]

In 2006, my senior year of high school, I was outside and we were getting ready for our baseball game.  It was a hot afternoon, temps well into the 80's and it was breezy out, but nothing extreme.  Where the field was located it was always breezy.  Anyways, all of a sudden a massive gust of wind kicked in, and literally about 10' from me a whirlwind of sand kicked up and picked up small pebbles and threw them and it hurt like HELL and the swirl of dust/pebbles literally was over 100' tall.  It came threw, knocked the coach off the bench, picked up the equipment box (weighed around 10 lbs) several feet into the air, threw it, took my notebook full of papers, and carried them well into the air and it also took the umpire's check.  The check was found 2 days later on someone's lawn in South Windsor I believe it was...our game was in West Hartford...a solid 20-25 miles away or so.  

 

The dust devil went on to travel across the entire field and dissipated about 1000' later...still with papers flying now several hundred feet up into the air.  It was crazy. 

 

 

Did your teacher buy that when you didn't turn in your homework on time ?

[New England Storm]

Nice day out today almost 60 here with little wind.

Just came outside with my daughter and saw something I'd never seen. It was basically a dust devil-esque type feature but with leaves. Not like in a parking lot of a strip mall where you'll get them rotating in a corner and dissipate quickly. It actually traveled across my yard, went though two rows of blueberry bushes I have and shook them pretty well. Was loud with the leaves smacking up against the branches, it then traveled another 500 feet across my yard, toward my neighbors yard and through another row of trees and over their house and kept going. By that time my viewpoint allowed me to see the leaves spiraling around at least 2-300 feet up in the air. Bizarre as there was otherwise only a calm and variable wind before and after it.

 

 

Nice day out today almost 60 here with little wind.

Just came outside with my daughter and saw something I'd never seen. It was basically a dust devil-esque type feature but with leaves. Not like in a parking lot of a strip mall where you'll get them rotating in a corner and dissipate quickly. It actually traveled across my yard, went though two rows of blueberry bushes I have and shook them pretty well. Was loud with the leaves smacking up against the branches, it then traveled another 500 feet across my yard, toward my neighbors yard and through another row of trees and over their house and kept going. By that time my viewpoint allowed me to see the leaves spiraling around at least 2-300 feet up in the air. Bizarre as there was otherwise only a calm and variable wind before and after it.

 

So this was a nice ground based rotation, kind of rare in this part no, If i recall something like this happened in 92-93 in NH.  And in 07? Sunderland Mass? or was that more landspout. 

 

[weatherwiz]

Did your teacher buy that when you didn't turn in your homework on time ?

 

The notebook was filled with baseball notes...luckily it wasn't homework.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let's keep this OT at this point.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40005-explosions-at-boston-marathon/

[Baroclinic Zone]

In other news.  I hit 58F today.  Weather wise, a spectacular day.

[joey2002]

In other news.  I hit 58F today.  Weather wise, a spectacular day.

 

Yeah, it really turned out great. 

 

Looks like it hit 60 at BDL... is that exactly average for the date?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah, it really turned out great. 

 

Looks like it hit 60 at BDL... is that exactly average for the date?

yup

low temp made it a - day though

[free_man]

One more shot at snow before May 1st?

[N. OF PIKE]

One more shot at snow before May 1st?

for who

[It's Always Sunny]

for who

Northern New England, high elevation areas in southern New England towards the end of the month.

[It's Always Sunny]

GFS MOS is a degree or two warmer than the NAM for tomorrow.  The irony being, the NAM is usually better at low-level temperatures; we are at the time of the year where everything tends to bust a degree or two, too cool, so the GFS would seem more likely.     I think, though, that the NAM's better performance there is more because of advection terms than diabatic heating --- don't know though. 

00Z guidance, GFS MOS is 5 degrees warmer than the NAM (65 vs. 60). I'll have to go with somewhere in between on this for KBOS, where 65 is too high, and 60 is too cool imo.

[Baroclinic Zone]

brrr. 33f

[It's Always Sunny]

You have fog down there in KTAN?

[Baroclinic Zone]

You have fog down there in KTAN?

yes. vis ~.5mi. down to 32f

[CoastalWx]

The kid who died lived down the street from me..come to find out. Gonna be a long day in my area.

[CT Rain]

The kid who died lived down the street from me..come to find out. Gonna be a long day in my area.

 

Ugh. Awful. Such a terrible story. 

[dendrite]

Best wishes to that father and family. Talk about getting your world turned over in a flash.

Hard to think about weather, but the pattern still looks awful after Friday's warmth. I may pull off my first 60+ today.

[CoastalWx]

In lighter news, looks like another Dakotas/MN blizzard coming up. Unbelievable.

[Damage In Tolland]

Next week could not look any colder, wetter or worse than it does on modelling. UGH

[weatherwiz]

Nest week doesn't look all that bad...sure it's not 70's/80's but considering it's April it should be expected.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Nest week doesn't look all that bad...sure it's not 70's/80's but considering it's April it should be expected.  

It looks awful with a cut off low stuck near us and onshore flow. It's 40's and clouds/drizzle, rain most of the week

[It's Always Sunny]

True but this is sh*t weather coming up. This week wasn't too bad except for my overnight lows. Bring the heat already.

[weatherwiz]

It looks awful with a cut off low stuck near us and onshore flow. It's 40's and clouds/drizzle, rain most of the week

 

I don't see any cutoff low anywhere near us and for the most part RH values look fairly dry

[Baroclinic Zone]

I don't see any cutoff low anywhere near us and for the most part RH values look fairly dry

 

You can see the kinks on the Euro 168h image and a compact low on the 192h image.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I am preferring this weather for yard work, etc.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't see any cutoff low anywhere near us and for the most part RH values look fairly dry

Probably because all you ever look at is the GFS

[weatherwiz]

You can see the kinks on the Euro 168h image and a compact low on the 192h image.

 

I did see that.

 

Probably because all you ever look at is the GFS

 

I actually looked at the Euro first but you're worried about that little feature that is on there for like a day?  That's towards the end of next week and there is no strong signal for that occurring right now.  If it does...big deal, one day of 40's/clouds/drizzle...most of next week should be into the 50's and maybe even near 60 at times depending on sun.

[Baroclinic Zone]

7.8 Earthquake in Iran.