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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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Hope the euro is right for next week. Definitely PT material.

 

That's a pretty exceptional weather period, spanning perhaps 4 days, too.  70 to 76 by day, and low 50s at night -- green up has begun here, but that will really put the foot to the throttle when/if that happens. 

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Beautiful day through early afternoon, though now those clouds off to the east have overspread us, leaving filtered sunshine though they do appear to be thickening.

 

IMG_6207_edited-2.jpg

 

IMG_6206_edited-1.jpg

 

40" on the ground at the 3,000ft stake (pictured)...with 60" on the ground at the COOP stake closer to 4,000ft.  Sharp depth gradient this time of year based on elevation.

 

IMG_6189_edited-1.jpg

 

The snow continues to melt though...

 

IMG_6202_edited-2.jpg

 

Only pretty patchy cover here at the road closure gate at 1,500ft... able to see pavement on RT 108 for the first time since mid November.  I hear there's still up to 18" of snow on portions of the road at the top of the pass over 2,200ft.

 

IMG_6194_edited-2.jpg

 

 

A slow end to winter but spring is finally starting to take over up here.

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We are gonna roast in 70's to near 80 all of next week. We knew this should happen as everything gets shoved south. Those that bought the Euro run of 3-5 day nor'easter really struggled. Of course it's not good for the drought but some nice Indian Summer wx is coming next week. Yes Indian summer happens in spring after our last freeze. Lets get those dews up too!

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Still 37F at ORH at 3pm...record low max is 38F. Surprised it still hasn't been tied. I figured it would make it to 40F or so. Still might, but it better do it soon.

 

 

I was kidding around earlier but seriously ... this atmosphere is warming from the top down.  I think there is a chance that many areas see temps start to eek upward as the evening progresses.   Wondering if the high there is like 10 minutes before midnight.  

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Still 37F at ORH at 3pm...record low max is 38F. Surprised it still hasn't been tied. I figured it would make it to 40F or so. Still might, but it better do it soon.

 

That is really impressive...gnarly low level cold for this time of year.  That's colder than 4,000ft up here.

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Does anyone have one of those products that shows the current surface obs in the NE?    Cloudless sky in central NY ... gotta figure it's up around 70 out there while it is 38 here.

 

Saranac Lake at 1,700ft in the Adirondacks is mostly sunny and 57 degrees.  Even at significant elevation they are 20F higher than ORH well to the SE of there.  Dry airmass out that way with SLK seeing a RH of 19% with dews in the mid teens.

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 2013042319metarsalb.gif

 

 

Heh, I guess not so impressive at the thermometer houses, but that's pretty impressive "sensible" differential right there.   Light wind with 62F and full sun is HUGE whopper of a difference compared to Bedford, where it is 41 with slate gray and sprinkles.  

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Saranac Lake at 1,700ft in the Adirondacks is mostly sunny and 57 degrees.  Even at significant elevation they are 20F higher than ORH well to the SE of there.  Dry airmass out that way with SLK seeing a RH of 19% with dews in the mid teens.

 

I was just looking at the GGEM for tomorrow... synoptically, it shows us clearing on the back side of this circulation working N off the coast, similar to the Carolinas right now, and then we transport 62F air down slope through a medium that is warmer(ing) at 850.  I doubt the boundary layer gets that tall, but even at 900 or 875 or so that would support a balmy high tomorrow should the wind go off shore and the column abruptly dries out that way. 

 

It's interesting the MOS products have been hitting that so hard.    Quite the 24 to 30 hour turn around.

 

Then we back down for a day and a half, though still balmy with insolation offsetting ... then if the Euro's right we probably fully leafed out or 70% of the way, anyway, after 4 or 5 days of mid 70s/50 type spring.

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Euro and NAM say notsofast with 70F for ENE tomorrow.

 

Yeah, I mentioned this earlier, how the NAM was backing down a bit... 06z still had BED sky rocketing to 75...now, it's like 57 there.   wow. 

 

They are higher res solutions, and it is April so...heh.  what can you do.   But I think you won't have to go very far into the interior;  I bet I'm over 60 here in Ayer, and it's mid 60s out further west along the Pike and Rt 2

 

Although the GGEM is higher res type, too and it's still more optimistic than that.  So is the GFSX (which stands for Experimental version of Good For Sh*t)

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Saranac Lake at 1,700ft in the Adirondacks is mostly sunny and 57 degrees.  Even at significant elevation they are 20F higher than ORH well to the SE of there.  Dry airmass out that way with SLK seeing a RH of 19% with dews in the mid teens.

At 3 (don't have the 4 PM reading), CAR had 54 with dew of 9. Crispy.

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