CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Scott - the data is here - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/#t=secondTabLink And yeah Will just based on the 1981-2010 normals and SD... BDL pulled a -3.2 sigma. Surprisingly, the SD at BDL for December is higher than April in Minot (though Minot's SDs are substantially higher in DJF). If you assume a normal distribution -3.2 sigma is less than a 0.1% probability, I think. Thanks, those are some crazy numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Check out http://www.johndee.com/ He's in the UP of Michigan. Check out the webcams and the photos in the journal. heavy heavy winter Ha love it, very jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 What a 7 day forecast. You can Prob take those temps up a bit this weekend with full sun, dry ground and foliage. Finally @StormFurey: Today's (4/23) 7-Day forecast. Much nicer tomorrow, & through the last weekend of April with dry, seasonable weather! http://t.co/6U46MbsN4v What foliage, the dead stuff on the forest flooor from last fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Ski Brule, a small ski area in Michigans's UP still has 100% snowcover: http://skibrule.com/view.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Amazing John Dees deepest depth was 45 on March 20th, second deepest max 44 inches on April 20th, now at 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 What foliage, the dead stuff on the forest flooor from last fall?I left out the word "no" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 As fast as Powderfreaks melted that stuff is going to torch quickly. He lost 2 feet in 3 days at 1500 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Wood drift Keep in mind that I an standing on around 6-7 feet of snow as well. I would estimate its depth to be somewhere in the 18-20 foot range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 As fast as Powderfreaks melted that stuff is going to torch quickly. He lost 2 feet in 3 days at 1500 feet John Dee I am starting to get very concerned about flooding. On Monday morning, I took a snow core sample and measured 8.5" of moisture locked in the current snow pack. That is before the 1.5" of precip fell Thur-Friday. I am not that concerned for us, all of our structures are build on concrete slabs that sit on 2-3 feet of sand. So no basements to flood and they also do not sit in low areas. Although I am also not completely throwing out the idea that I may have to run a pump or two to keep some areas that puddle from getting too out of hand. I do think that some areas up here that have not seen flooding ever, or have not seen flooding in a very long time stand a chance to see flooding this year and those that are prone to flooding...well... I would seriously be in the process of moving my belongings into a storage unit and leaving only the bare essentials to get out at the last minute. I just have this feeling that it's going to be bad, very, very bad. On the up side, all the inland lakes and ponds will jump back to very healthy levels and Lake Superior will also likely make a big jump in it's levels once all the snow in it's drainage basin melts. There is also very deep snow still on the ground in the Superior drainage areas of MN and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Saw Duluth mentioned earlier, thought I'd pass on some snowfall records they've broken...or smashed in some cases (Feb-Apr and Apr snowfall). Also, this April is now their snowiest month on record. Amazing. February-April snowfall: 1) 95.7" in 2013 (thru 7:00 AM today) 2) 68.5" in 1950 3) 66.4" in 1965 4) 65.5" in 1917 April snowfall: 1) 51.0" in 2013 (thru 1:00 AM today) 2) 31.6" in 1950 3) 24.4" in 1961 4) 23.7" in 1983 Snowiest month: 1) 51.0" in April 2013 (thru 7:00 AM today) 2) 50.1" in November 1991 3) 48.2" in March 1917 4) 46.8" in January 1969 Season snowfall: 1) 135.4" in 1995-96 2) 131.8" in 1949-50 3) 129.4" in 2012-13 (thru 7:00 AM today) 4) 128.2" in 1996-97 5) 121.0" in 1968-69 6) 117.1" in 1988-89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 As fast as Powderfreaks melted that stuff is going to torch quickly. He lost 2 feet in 3 days at 1500 feet Yeah if it's ripe and they get a couple 60-70F days they'll start seeing 12" per 24 hour type melt if they don't freeze at night. If John Dees' snowpack is 40" and he has around 10" of liquid in it, that's getting pretty ripe at 40% water. A week ago on Mansfield I was getting values as high as 40-50% water (60" snow for 26" water, and 15" for 7" water). That's what the NWS terms as "ripe" in AFD's, so it sounds like its getting to that point in the upper Midwest. At 40-50% water, that snow pack will release very quickly...just hope they don't get any rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 A beautiful day in progress here with slate gray skies and the temp at 38F. Chamber of commerce top 10 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Interesting that the two snowiest months in Duluth history are now an April and a November...months that you may not think of as being snowy but they seem to get their heaviest snows early and late season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 On the road but the radar looks like the precip shield is hitting a wall. Maybe just drizzle for Boston today or light showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Anyone have the record low max numbers for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Mostly sunny and 50F...a carbon copy of yesterday. Beautiful day in progress up this way but I can see clouds on the far SE horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 What a day!!! On my way to Boston for the Red Sox game and the Whale are going back to Wolf Pack...no more blow bonanza!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Mostly sunny and 50F...a carbon copy of yesterday. Beautiful day in progress up this way but I can see clouds on the far SE horizon.Heh. 36.8 with occasional -DZ here. A real beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Anyone have the record low max numbers for today? ORH: 38F I think that is the only one that has a shot today, but its a long shot I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 Awgh ... puke day on-going, as advertised. Part of me thought for a fleeting hope of over -abundance in the guidance, but nope -- not in April. The NAM is up to its usual performance with synoptic-scaled features, in being really inconsistent with how far west the rain shield from what is interestingly transforming from a coastal wave --> warm frontal wave --> warm front, as it evolves by our lat/long. By this time tomorrow, the vestigial circulation all but entirely collapses and the flow just defaults SW under warmer low to low/mid lvl thickness. Likewise with it's poor continuity with QPF distribution, it's playing games with the timing of clearing over eastern sections, as well as the whole tranformation tomorrow morning. After 5 cycles of insisting conditions would dramatically improve in an impressive turn-around between 12z and 18z tomorrow, the model is engineering misery for eastern sections holding on until late afternoon now. Since other higher resolution models are not so pessimistic, I wonder if this is just the NAM's usual sucking. We'll see.. But if the previous heavily weighted idea plays out, tomorrow at around 3 to 4 pm will be a whole different complexion than today's typical dreary April quagmire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 38° F and overcast. No drizzle here. I have to confess, I absolutely love this weather for some reason. It's my favorite type of weather behind a raging snowstorm. I wish it would lock into place for days, but alas, tomorrow will be a real spring day as the warm front comes through. Pretty amazing stuff in the upper Plains and UP of Michigan with an incredible pattern that is not likely to repeat itself again anytime soon.. Pretty envious of it myself. Long live the cold and snow...I have an incredibly low tolerance for the heat and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 7 day nor'easter on GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 38° F and overcast. No drizzle here. I have to confess, I absolutely love this weather for some reason. It's my favorite type of weather behind a raging snowstorm. I wish it would lock into place for days, but alas, tomorrow will be a real spring day as the warm front comes through. Pretty amazing stuff in the upper Plains and UP of Michigan with an incredible pattern that is not likely to repeat itself again anytime soon.. Pretty envious of it myself. Long live the cold and snow...I have an incredibly low tolerance for the heat and humidity. What do you like about in warm wx season? What are you doing specifically outside today to take advantage of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 7 day nor'easter on GFS? I noticed that too - haha. heh. eh... right. Hope not, but it's been 7 years since the infamy of 2005, and statistical/probability is nearing. The NAO is now sniffed out as another blocking period heading into the first week of May -- but obviously, with shorter r-wave lengths and so forth, we'll have to see how all that biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Heh. 36.8 with occasional -DZ here. A real beaut. Haha I had no idea until I saw the posts on here...just checked on the wunderground app and it looks like there are even some 33-34F readings in the vicinity of Lake Sunapee right now. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I noticed that too - haha. heh. eh... right. Hope not, but it's been 7 years since the infamy of 2005, and statistical/probability is nearing. The NAO is now sniffed out as another blocking period heading into the first week of May -- but obviously, with shorter r-wave lengths and so forth, we'll have to see how all that biases. Yeah probably truncation at its finest, but I laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Pretty bad Phail of all modeling today. Even the Euro which was giving CC 2-3 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I'm sure we'll have a miserable cut off system or two to deal with in May before true summer can set in. With any luck they'll set up far enough south of us to give sun and warm temps on the north side like Euro has been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 What do you like about in warm wx season? What are you doing specifically outside today to take advantage of it? LOL... we'll need to continuously bump the "what are you specifically doing outside?" comments in the winter-time when 90% of the general public would love to be outside at 60 degrees in December, while we are rooting on -20F bitter cold. Weather preferences aren't always about what specific activities you are doing outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 LOL... we'll need to continuously bump the "what are you specifically doing outside?" comments in the winter-time when 90% of the general public would love to be outside at 60 degrees in December, while we are rooting on -20F bitter cold. Weather preferences aren't always about what specific activities you are doing outside... Well do you think he's enjoying burning oil to keep warm by having the heat on? I mean why not cloudy and 60? If you're not outside this time of year doing something who cares if its 38 or 60? If this was October we'd all love it. Not the last few days of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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