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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah we had some really dry periods in the 1960s. They are a bizarre decade...obviously the very cold temperatures that went along with the dry weather is what many remember... the cold/long winters. They had a very low variance on temperatures too...consistently very cold but not much else when it cames to temps. It wasn't like many other decades with wild swings in temperature (the '20s/'30s were epic for this). Really the only time we ever saw any real above average temps in the 1960s were in several of the autumns. The other 3 seasons were very cold that decade.

 

I think there was only one exception to that, summer 1966, and that season's monster heat and drought didn't get much north and east of BDL. It remains NYC's driest met summer, and trails only 2010 for heat.

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Pretty late leaf-out this year. We don't even have the yellow-green flowers yet on the maples back home. Just some buds showing up. Those thorny bushes have that tinge of green to them now where the tiny leaves have started to burst through. We won't have true leaf-out until May back home I don't think. The yellow-green flowers are probably still several days away.

 

 

My Bradford Pear broke buds about a week ago, but that's as far as it got. Other than Red Maple seeds, other tree's are dormant.

 

Low of 32F here this morning with the current temperature at 38F.

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Worst day of spring. 36.5 and cloudy, . Thankfully only one day and back to near 70 tomorrow. Tomorrow is a Tippy special

 

Tomorrow may be stubborn here, but maybe your area on west it could work out. The data points to improvement here, but it's not often we shoot to 70F a few hours after a coastal low departs. It could happen though further inland. I have my doubts on the coast. Might be a day where UCONN hippies are playing hacky sack while jumping off the Tobin here.

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I'm blown away by the weather out there. Minot ND is -16.6 for the month. That's day after tomorrow sh*t right there. Those areas are subject to wide temp departures, but I have to imagine that's over a 1-200yr event there.

One of the most impressive departures for March was in Minot, N.D.

-Their mean temperature of 13.8°F for the month was 14.5°F below average.

-March 2013 ranked the 2nd coldest March on record since 1949. (1951 was the coldest)

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One of the most impressive departures for March was in Minot, N.D.

-Their mean temperature of 13.8°F for the month was 14.5°F below average.

-March 2013 ranked the 2nd coldest March on record since 1949. (1951 was the coldest)

 

Yeah pretty awesome. The nrn Plains in general haven't torched much since 2000. Aside from last year and a couple of other years, they've been pretty chilly....but of course nobody cares since most people over on the East Coast only realize what's going on in their backyards.

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Tomorrow may be stubborn here, but maybe your area on west it could work out. The data points to improvement here, but it's not often we shoot to 70F a few hours after a coastal low departs. It could happen though further inland. I have my doubts on the coast. Might be a day where UCONN hippies are playing hacky sack while jumping off the Tobin here.

All locale stations tickling 70 tomorrow

@RachelFrankCT: This is the worst weather day of the week!! Hopefully that helps you make it through the day. 60s to near 70 tomorrow!

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Yeah pretty awesome. The nrn Plains in general haven't torched much since 2000. Aside from last year and a couple of other years, they've been pretty chilly....but of course nobody cares since most people over on the East Coast only realize what's going on in their backyards.

 

It's their December 1989

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Yeah pretty awesome. The nrn Plains in general haven't torched much since 2000. Aside from last year and a couple of other years, they've been pretty chilly....but of course nobody cares since most people over on the East Coast only realize what's going on in their backyards.

 

 

PDO flip has cooled them off...2008-2011 were actually below their longterm average over that region until last year's furnace.

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PDO flip has cooled them off...2008-2011 were actually below their longterm average over that region until last year's furnace.

 

I imagine the standard deviation for most months at Minot is quite a bit larger than it is here in SNE. 

 

Still I imagine the Dec 89 negative departures in SNE would be similar to Apr 13 in the Nrn Plains since both are relatively unprecdented. 

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I imagine the standard deviation for most months at Minot is quite a bit larger than it is here in SNE. 

 

Still I imagine the Dec 89 negative departures in SNE would be similar to Apr 13 in the Nrn Plains since both are relatively unprecdented. 

 

 

Yeah the plains have a much higher standard dev than we do. But you are also correct that this month is ridiculous for them. I think Dec '89 was more ridiculous for our area though...but its close. Getting a -15 or -16F departure in that area is easier than here, but months like December have much higher swings too than a month like April. All else equal, its tougher to get a big departure in April than it is in December...so its kind of like weighing those two things.

 

But our Dec '89 crushed the 2nd place December by like 5 degrees...it wasn't even close. Minot will prob get their record by 2 or 3 degrees I'm guessing. So I think '89 is more impressive, but its still been a crazy month. If you factor in the anomalous snowfall/snowpack (something we failed to get in '89), then the month looks even more impressive.

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All locale stations tickling 70 tomorrow

@RachelFrankCT: This is the worst weather day of the week!! Hopefully that helps you make it through the day. 60s to near 70 tomorrow!

850's would support mid-70's inland with full sunshine, NAM 2m temps warm as high as 73 near BDL.

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Yeah the plains have a much higher standard dev than we do. But you are also correct that this month is ridiculous for them. I think Dec '89 was more ridiculous for our area though...but its close. Getting a -15 or -16F departure in that area is easier than here, but months like December have much higher swings too than a month like April. All else equal, its tougher to get a big departure in April than it is in December...so its kind of like weighing those two things.

 

But our Dec '89 crushed the 2nd place December by like 5 degrees...it wasn't even close. Minot will prob get their record by 2 or 3 degrees I'm guessing. So I think '89 is more impressive, but its still been a crazy month. If you factor in the anomalous snowfall/snowpack (something we failed to get in '89), then the month looks even more impressive.

 

 

Scott - the data is here - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/#t=secondTabLink

 

And yeah Will just based on the 1981-2010 normals and SD... BDL pulled a -3.2 sigma. Surprisingly, the SD at BDL for December is higher than April in Minot (though Minot's SDs are substantially higher in DJF). 

 

If you assume a normal distribution -3.2 sigma is less than a 0.1% probability, I think. 

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Will - what was Minot's record for the month? 

 

I know BDL beat their 1917 #2 december record by 2.8F. What's also impressive is that December '89 is like #4 for all-time cold months. Beating many Januarys and Februarys. 

 

Though Minot won't finish the month at -16 (they'll shave some off over the next week) if they did by some miracle they'd be -4.1 sigma on the month. That's virtually impossible to do. 

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Scott - the data is here - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/#t=secondTabLink

 

And yeah Will just based on the 1981-2010 normals and SD... BDL pulled a -3.2 sigma. Surprisingly, the SD at BDL for December is higher than April in Minot (though Minot's SDs are substantially higher in DJF). 

 

If you assume a normal distribution -3.2 sigma is less than a 0.1% probability, I think. 

 

 

Yeah you are right. I knew the SD would be solidly lower in April vs DJf, but I wasn't sure if BDL SD would be higher in Dec vs April in Minot...I figured Minot would still have a higher SD.

 

So if Minot finishes like -14 or -15 on the month, then it will actually be a more anomalous month than Dec '89 in BDL. Like -3.5 sig. I guess we'll just have to wait and see where it finishes. They'll try to erase some of the departures over the final 5-6 days of the month.

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Will - what was Minot's record for the month? 

 

I know BDL beat their 1917 #2 december record by 2.8F. What's also impressive is that December '89 is like #4 for all-time cold months. Beating many Januarys and Februarys. 

 

Though Minot won't finish the month at -16 (they'll shave some off over the next week) if they did by some miracle they'd be -4.1 sigma on the month. That's virtually impossible to do. 

 

 

I think Minot's record is 31.5F for the month which is about 12.7F below the '81-'10 average April.

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I think Minot's record is 31.5F for the month which is about 12.7F below the '81-'10 average April.

 

Incredible stuff. Combined with the snowfall they may win the battle with us on Dec 89... just remarkable.

 

Given how vulnerable some of the rivers are up there to big league flooding lets hope things just melt slowly. What an absolute disaster that would be if they flipped to May like warmth and some heavy rain. 

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Incredible stuff. Combined with the snowfall they may win the battle with us on Dec 89... just remarkable.

 

Given how vulnerable some of the rivers are up there to big league flooding lets hope things just melt slowly. What an absolute disaster that would be if they flipped to May like warmth and some heavy rain. 

yea no kidding

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