2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

[Damage In Tolland]

Both long range ensembles are showing a block with a coastal storm on the east coast next week. Cut off storm that can't move east with the nasty block. We are f'd

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I don't think it's been out of the ordinary....which is usually dealing with useless temps..lol.

 

 

Yeah its been cold...but not obscenely so. The lack of a big torch though has put us behind schedule on leaf-out which is the biggest noticable variable...but this is no 1967 (leaf-out didn't happen until May that year).

 

 

Usually by now we've had at least one solid stretch of 65-75F weather...but not this year. But we've had many other years that took until later April too.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah its been cold...but not obscenely so. The lack of a big torch though has put us behind schedule on leaf-out which is the biggest noticable variable...but this is no 1967 (leaf-out didn't happen until May that year).

Usually by now we've had at least one solid stretch of 65-75F weather...but not this year. But we've had many other years that took until later April too.

We don't have that this month. Next week looks like hell on Earth. This week is nice and Friday finally gets into 70's, but cold again for the weekend

[weathafella]

We don't have that this month. Next week looks like hell on Earth. This week is nice and Friday finally gets into 70's, but cold again for the weekend

Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you get.

[Damage In Tolland]

Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you get.

We knew you couldn't stay away

[ORH_wxman]

We don't have that this month. Next week looks like hell on Earth. This week is nice and Friday finally gets into 70's, but cold again for the weekend

 

 

Yeah we'll see...there's certainly potential for an ugly slow moving coastal that puts us in misery for several days...but its not a lock yet. We might be waiting until the very end of the month or early May before we get our first true 3-4 day stretch of 70+ weather.  But we've endured it before and this week isn't that bad despite not being as warm as originally advertised.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah we'll see...there's certainly potential for an ugly slow moving coastal that puts us in misery for several days...but its not a lock yet. We might be waiting until the very end of the month or early May before we get our first true 3-4 day stretch of 70+ weather.  But we've endured it before and this week isn't that bad despite not being as warm as originally advertised.

 

When does climo even hit 70F for the 4 stations?  I know right now we're in the mid/upper 50's for daytime highs.  Got to be a good 2 to 3 weeks out.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we all appreciate the long thought out posts, but a lot of those who contributed them got gobbled up by energy companies through the site. Then they had to cut back on what they could share here.

 

 

I hope this is true -- it just didn't work out for me   I made some tremendous operational calls over the years, and I think I can fairly advance that statement based on truth in performance; if what you say is true, too bad no one took notice.  

[weathafella]

We knew you couldn't stay away

You should have run Boston.

[CoastalWx]

You should have run Boston.

 

We could have all greeted him with a crown of weenies around his head.

[ORH_wxman]

When does climo even hit 70F for the 4 stations?  I know right now we're in the mid/upper 50's for daytime highs.  Got to be a good 2 to 3 weeks out.

 

 

Climo doesn't hit 70F in BOS until May 24th...ORH  until May 26th, and BDL until May 8th.

 

The average time of first 70F though is a lot sooner as is our first string of 2-3 of them. Its akin to getting an average high (or multiple days) below freezing in December...none of the stations in SNE average 32F for a high in December, but we usually have one by the end of the month.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Climo doesn't hit 70F in BOS until May 24th...ORH  until May 26th, and BDL until May 8th.

 

The average time of first 70F though is a lot sooner as is our first string of 2-3 of them. Its akin to getting an average high (or multiple days) below freezing in December...none of the stations in SNE average 32F for a high in December, but we usually have one by the end of the month.

So we're still a ways out.  3 of the 4 BOX stations have already recorded a 70F reading thus far.  ORH is on the outside.  I personally think 3-4 days in April that hit 70+ is a win.

[Typhoon Tip]

It prompted me to want to check ... ORH is currently -1F for the first 14 days of the month, and HFD is -.2.  BOS is curiously +.7 for the first 14 days.  There's been a lot of onshore wind days and it appears the nocturnal elevated lows are contaminating those numbers warm.   There is no way the "sensible" weather has appealed that way, though we're talking about fractions of a degree here so meh. 

 

Anyway, March was negative for all majors...some more modestly than others.  It will be interesting what happens down the stretch because we haven't put together back to back cold months in ...years I think.   Will, Scott ?

 

Edit: actually that's not true, there have only been 4 days out of the first 14 that average onshore.  Huh --

[Damage In Tolland]

You should have run Boston.

Im trying to qualify. I have to run one in 3:15 at my age. 3:38 is my PR so far. Trying to break 3:30 at PVD next month. Doubtful I can get to 3:15 ever, but trying

[Typhoon Tip]

Welp, Red Sox just blew the save...  This ought to make Kevin happy

[weathafella]

Im trying to qualify. I have to run one in 3:15 at my age. 3:38 is my PR so far. Trying to break 3:30 at PVD next month. Doubtful I can get to 3:15 ever, but trying

Yeah that always stopped me until I got old and stopped caring. But the number of really good runners at Boston is pretty high due to the qualifying time. 3:38 for a guy only running a few years is damned good for a PR.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah that always stopped me until I got old and stopped caring. But the number of really good runners at Boston is pretty high due to the qualifying time. 3:38 for a guy only running a few years is damned good for a PR.

I only started running 3 years ago. Literally almost to the day. Since then I've completed 3 marathons. PVD will be 4. I really need to hit 3:30 to have a shot at BOS and 3:15 which means probably 2 more marathons before I could do it. And that's assuming I keep improving. I may not.

[Typhoon Tip]

Any time your means are within a degree of normal, cool or warm, the argument of typology is valid.  I agree with Jerry that it's entirely normal out there.   Obviously, the last 3 years have tainted perceptions, but I, for one, was never beguiled and fully expected to be pissed off by April, just as I am every year.   

 

If I get pleasantly surprised, so be it.  Right now, ...subjective, sure, but I'd have to say 60% pleasant, 40 percent pissed off as usual, so far.  

 

That said, it is now 57F in Ayer, with better than median insolation, and with light and variable wind it's really lovely relative to oh, say ...last Friday    As we expected though, it wasn't protracted and with a little patience and we're out of that, no harm no foul.  We had some nice day prior last week -- someone's got to foot the bill.

 

We bide time with positive departures the remainder of this week, and we'll see how that signal next week really pans out.  Thing is, we are really on the curve toward teleconnector irrelevancy at this point.  The PNA's effectiveness is much weaker by April 30, than it is on April 1.  The NAO is still, however, more useful during that time.  IT is indicating positive index values through the 23rd, so it does enter into question just how "depthy" any eastern trough really will really be next week.  

[Typhoon Tip]

I only started running 3 years ago. Literally almost to the day. Since then I've completed 3 marathons. PVD will be 4. I really need to hit 3:30 to have a shot at BOS and 3:15 which means probably 2 more marathons before I could do it. And that's assuming I keep improving. I may not.

 

Not that anyone asked... I have never run more than 10 miles and don't have any interest in doing so.  I started running 7 years ago, when after having my knee scoped I had purchased a Rockhopper Mt bike and rode it into the sunset of autumn and had to take the workouts inside.  I hit the tread mills.  I had lost 20 lbs just riding, and thought I was good shape but really had trouble running even 3 miles at first.  Funny.   By the following autumn I had pretty much committed to just running and was running 5 or 6 miles every other day.  A year after that I was doing a 2/3 split cycle;  run 2 days in a row for 5 miles, take a day off, then 3 days in a row for 5 miles.  That was 25 miles/week.  I maintained that, and did not miss a week for 2 straight years!   

 

I was thinking about this the other day... that came out to just shy of 100 marathons worth of total running.  Do the arithmetic --   You're probably getting right up there your self when you look at it is total numbers.   It's just that I never did 26 in one effort.   No interest in doing that.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

58F. 

[weatherwiz]

Turning out to be a very nice afternoon here.

[powderfreak]

Yeah its been cold...but not obscenely so. The lack of a big torch though...

This what's made this spring so great for the ski areas in terms of snow retention. It hasn't felt brutally cold, but a great snow run during the last two weeks of March, plus some minor events so far in April has essentially led to continued holding of the winter pack deep into April. The few warm sunny days that might have melted some snow, have been off-set by the minor events, such that snow depths right now from at least 1500ft and higher are deeper than they were a month ago in mid-March.

Usually at the end of March or early April we get a decent like 3-4 day stretch of snowpack release and mild temps that knocks it back and starts the process. This year we haven't had that first good melt week though this looks to be that week maybe when it starts to loosen up and release some water.

[Typhoon Tip]

58F. 

 

Teetering with commitment to stellar out there.   I can cargo shorts it already with just a heavy shirt.  

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS MOS is a degree or two warmer than the NAM for tomorrow.  The irony being, the NAM is usually better at low-level temperatures; we are at the time of the year where everything tends to bust a degree or two, too cool, so the GFS would seem more likely.     I think, though, that the NAM's better performance there is more because of advection terms than diabatic heating --- don't know though. 

[free_man]

I only started running 3 years ago. Literally almost to the day. Since then I've completed 3 marathons. PVD will be 4. I really need to hit 3:30 to have a shot at BOS and 3:15 which means probably 2 more marathons before I could do it. And that's assuming I keep improving. I may not.

You could qualify/ru an "easier" marathon then take the time to Boston, no?

[Snow Bow]

Nice day out today almost 60 here with little wind.

Just came outside with my daughter and saw something I'd never seen. It was basically a dust devil-esque type feature but with leaves. Not like in a parking lot of a strip mall where you'll get them rotating in a corner and dissipate quickly. It actually traveled across my yard, went though two rows of blueberry bushes I have and shook them pretty well. Was loud with the leaves smacking up against the branches, it then traveled another 500 feet across my yard, toward my neighbors yard and through another row of trees and over their house and kept going. By that time my viewpoint allowed me to see the leaves spiraling around at least 2-300 feet up in the air. Bizarre as there was otherwise only a calm and variable wind before and after it.

[Damage In Tolland]

You could qualify/ru an "easier" marathon then take the time to Boston, no?

Yeah . HFD and PVD are both qualifying courses .

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice day out today almost 60 here with little wind.

Just came outside with my daughter and saw something I'd never seen. It was basically a dust devil-esque type feature but with leaves. Not like in a parking lot of a strip mall where you'll get them rotating in a corner and dissipate quickly. It actually traveled across my yard, went though two rows of blueberry bushes I have and shook them pretty well. Was loud with the leaves smacking up against the branches, it then traveled another 500 feet across my yard, toward my neighbors yard and through another row of trees and over their house and kept going. By that time my viewpoint allowed me to see the leaves spiraling around at least 2-300 feet up in the air. Bizarre as there was otherwise only a calm and variable wind before and after it.

Any damage? Trees down, poles ripped down?

[free_man]

Yeah . HFD and PVD are both qualifying courses .

What my father did (and still does) is ran/train in the summer to fall up in NE when it's grueling and more hilly/worse roads, then run Boston marathon qualifier in the southern U.S. in the winter, with extremely flat and well maintained roads. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro has the plains blizzard of course this week during the middle of the week (already starting out in Colorado)...amazingly, it has another one again now for early next week. The pattern out there is just remarkable...the one next week looks further south tracking almost due east out of Colorado rather than northeast.