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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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State reservoirs are 102% of normal, more rain incoming. Drought fail, fire season fail. No weather drama for you to latch on. Normal spring. http://www.ct.gov/dph/lib/dph/drinking_water/pdf/Status_Summary.pdf

 

There is no drought around here, shaded areas of lawn/garden are muddy/moist. We had a ton of snow this winter and ground moisture is doing just fine.

 

Stop spoiling the hypesters.  They need something to latch onto this time of year.

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Kevin creates drought/fire fear every year it seems. We aren't all that susceptible to crippling droughts in our area...our variance is tempered by us sticking out into the Atlantic.

 

Its been a cool/dry spring, but nothing all that extrordinary when summing up all the piece back 50 days or so. If people want to see absolutely stunning weather, look at the northern plains this spring. If the fetish is stunning droughts...look at the central/southern plains last year.

There have been surface droughts creating fire danger in recent years, but has there been an extended drought in the Northeast since the 1960s? For multi-year drought, 1962 thru August 1966 stands pretty much alone for the Northeast, though less so in NNE than SNE and MA. Six states recorded their driest year on record in 1965, all of SNE plus DE/NJ/PA, more than for any other year, though for decades the 1930s leads by far. Looking at NYC data (outside New England, but I happen to have it, and the record is long), for two-year periods, the pairs 62-63 thru 65-66 are the driest 4 on record; for three-year spans, 62-64 thru 64-66 are top 3 and 61-63 is 5th. Since then, the driest pair is 81-82 at 26th, driest triad 80-82 at 37th.

Edit: Took too long, and Whiteminster plus ginnxy beat me.

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Drought now could mean more severe heat later on. Endless summer...

 

meh...this isn't overly true.  While soil moisture content can be a factor usually it only becomes a factor when other variables have an extremely week correlation and typically you want to look at areas downstream of you and see how they are doing drought wise.  

 

Unless a large chunk of like the Plains/OV region are experiencing like a widespread 4-5''+ deficit, and to a degree, the Northeast, soil-moisture really won't play much of a role in our temp departures.  

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meh...this isn't overly true.  While soil moisture content can be a factor usually it only becomes a factor when other variables have an extremely week correlation and typically you want to look at areas downstream of you and see how they are doing drought wise.  

 

Unless a large chunk of like the Plains/OV region are experiencing like a widespread 4-5''+ deficit, and to a degree, the Northeast, soil-moisture really won't play much of a role in our temp departures.  

It was a tongue-in-cheek post. Of course there are a lot of factors that influence large-scale temperature patterns.

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There have been surface droughts creating fire danger in recent years, but has there been an extended drought in the Northeast since the 1960s? For multi-year drought, 1962 thru August 1966 stands pretty much alone for the Northeast, though less so in NNE than SNE and MA. Six states recorded their driest year on record in 1965, all of SNE plus DE/NJ/PA, more than for any other year, though for decades the 1930s leads by far. Looking at NYC data (outside New England, but I happen to have it, and the record is long), for two-year periods, the pairs 62-63 thru 65-66 are the driest 4 on record; for three-year spans, 62-64 thru 64-66 are top 3 and 61-63 is 5th. Since then, the driest pair is 81-82 at 26th, driest triad 80-82 at 37th.

Edit: Took too long, and Whiteminster plus ginnxy beat me.

 

Yeah we had some really dry periods in the 1960s. They are a bizarre decade...obviously the very cold temperatures that went along with the dry weather is what many remember... the cold/long winters. They had a very low variance on temperatures too...consistently very cold but not much else when it cames to temps. It wasn't like many other decades with wild swings in temperature (the '20s/'30s were epic for this). Really the only time we ever saw any real above average temps in the 1960s were in several of the autumns. The other 3 seasons were very cold that decade.  

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