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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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It looks pretty putrid for the next 48 to 60 hours, until that coastal wave and leading high pressure that is moving perfectly wrong relative to the coast, finally move their conspiratorial influence away.  In that time, it probably gets moister and moister, eventually yielding to a period of strata gray cloud streets and 43F light rain periods.   Have to see how far inland it penetrates, but I wouldn't be shocked if the "bowl" between the Berkshire els and the ocean fills is with murk for time.  Just might be wettest in the east, of course. 

 

Altogether pretty miserable, but there might be a wedge where it ends abruptly Wednesday and the temps shoot up.  The approaching frontal system from the west veers the wind around to SW with drying, and 850's relatively mild.  Could see a 20F turn around between later Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.   Not certain on that though...

 

Yeah winds go SW ahead of the front...I wonder if we still are sort of shrouded in a dank airmass even as winds veer since there isn't much time to flush out the crap. Might be a CT valley sneaky warm event, but not very confident here. If winds can come around to more NW as the low departs instead of that nagging NE flow than we have a shot.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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The water table is a little lower than it should be, but the normal benchmarks I look at aren't too dry at the moment.

Yeah , just nothing out of the ordinary early Spring dryness we get before leaf-out.  The rain Friday/Saturday helped.  Couple more shots this week at precip, so things should not trend down.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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There is a distinction between the Shorter and Longer terms hydro deficits.  

 

It is more useful to be aware that Longer term deficits begin with increased frequency of Short term dry intervals.  There charts being provided show moderate impact Short duration dry bias (3 mo).  Given to the time of year, this is not likely to effect the substrate/Groundwater levels, unless it persists into the summer months.   For now, there is no meaningful impact to the region:

 

lbfinal.gif

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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There is a distinction between the Shorter and Longer terms hydro deficits.

It is more useful to be aware that Longer term deficits begin with increased frequency of Short term dry intervals. There charts being provided show moderate impact Short duration dry bias (3 mo). Given to the time of year, this is not likely to effect the substrate/Groundwater levels, unless it persists into the summer months. For now, there is no meaningful impact to the region:

lbfinal.gif

Its just that its a bit concerning that some areas are so dry in a time of year that is usually fairly wet. There doesn't appear to be any sig rain over the next 10 days. As we get closer to convective season and away from coastals it is starting to become more of a concern. I'd like to see some siggy rain in here over the next 30 days before HHH wx hits
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah winds go SW ahead of the front...I wonder if we still are sort of shrouded in a dank airmass even as winds veer since there isn't much time to flush out the crap. Might be a CT valley sneaky warm event, but not very confident here. If winds can come around to more NW as the low departs instead of that nagging NE flow than we have a shot.

 

"Dirty warmth" does sometimes occur in those scenarios, but the R1, R3, and R5 levels, which correspond to the middle boundary layer, 700mb and 500mb levels, show jolt drying by 54 hours.  

 

'Course it is the NAM, but, R1 being 49% RH shows that the llvs are < than the 55% cut off for partial overcast, implying when combining late April sun that there are more skylights than not there.  In fact, that looks down right clear when considering the R3 and 5 are both < 30%   ...  We'll just have to see if the NAM is full of crap.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Its just that its a bit concerning that some areas are so dry in a time of year that is usually fairly wet. There doesn't appear to be any sig rain over the next 10 days. As we get closer to convective season and away from coastals it is starting to become more of a concern. I'd like to see some siggy rain in here over the next 30 days before HHH wx hits

 

 

OH, I agree -- vigilance is probably the course of least regret.  These things start somewhere/somehow in time.  We'll just have to see where it goes.  

 

I don't think so, personally, that it will evolve that way.  In fact, rumor has it that a lot of seasonal-based products want a "weakness" in the ambient subtropical ridge east of the MV longitudes.  That can be expressed in patterns differently; sometimes it means semi-permanent trough axis near the Apps with a lot of Bahama-blue skies, with puffy/CU deep subtropical flow paralleling the Coast.  

 

As a mad-eyed digression, I have often contemplated ... why has there never been a hurricane embedded in that sort of conveyor set up?  It seems to get a hurricane along the Eastern Seaboard, it has to come with a lot of consternation in the models, as to what blocking features will situated where just such that the needle can be thread for a 4 to 6 hours of perfect timing and good lord...!  Wouldn't it be interesting to see a Category 4 hurricane moving west toward the Bahamas ...with the flow turning curvilinearly toward the N -- the implication is like delivering a storm via an atmospheric rail system.

 

Anyway, sometimes said weakness is manifest like the summer of 2007, when it was daily convection, pulse severe.   If these/those sort of patterns set up, dryness and drought are a distant concern.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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"Dirty warmth" does sometimes occur in those scenarios, but the R1, R3, and R5 levels, which correspond to the middle boundary layer, 700mb and 500mb levels, show jolt drying by 54 hours.  

 

'Course it is the NAM, but, R1 being 49% RH shows that the llvs are < than the 55% cut off for partial overcast, implying when combining late April sun that there are more skylights than not there.  In fact, that looks down right clear when considering the R3 and 5 are both < 30%   ...  We'll just have to see if the NAM is full of crap.

 

Yeah I see that, hopefully we can dry out a bit, but lets hope there isn't a pesky, nagging inversion.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Cant wait for you to get out of the ghetto and into the country with a yard for Bryce to play . Oh how things will change

 

Even my parent's house has town water. Septic I understand...but maybe your elevation is so high, pumps struggle to bring water to the mighty peaks of the Tolland range.

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