2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

[weatherwiz]

The recent stretch of springs with some crazy warmth have tempered with expectations.  There really is nothing wrong with this April at all...sure it may be below-average temp wise but this is how I would really expect the month of April to be around these parts.  We're still far enough north in latitude to where we are close enough to the cold air source but also just far enough south to where we can really get in on that warmer pattern at times.  April is a month of transition so you should expect crazy and this could mean anything from raw and damp to 30's/40's to even 80's.  

[Brian5671]

Actually not that bad of an April IMO-very few dank drizzly days around here...we've been cool, but for the most part, we've been at least partly cloudy most days...

[weatherwiz]

I wish it was warmer out so I could walk up the street and get a coffee.  I actually wish I had another sweatshirt on 

[weatherwiz]

It actually isn't bad at all out.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Haha. I agree. Way too long of a post for a message board.

 

 

Haha.  That's nothing!   Apparently you were not around when folks would put up dissertations replete with graphical analysis.  I have noticed that those that used to spend the time to do that, have moved on ... probably to better/greener pastures where their work is actually appreciated, if not actually being accredited (whether that be higher education, or working).   As an afterthought ... I feel I'm left behind in some respects, actually. 

 

Fact of the matter is I'm heading in that direction and readying for an exit, too.  Not out of anger ... just that the direction/vision of the site doesn't jive well with me and makes me feel like I am wasting my time, too much of the time.  In the earlier days of Wright Weather, and Eastern, there was a kind of "respect"; not for individuals seeking idols, but for the work/effort.  They wanted graphs and philosophies.  Now, it seems to have become a bastion for those seeking instant gratification and/or are ever dumbed down by the intellectually eroding convenience of the "Tweetistphere" culture.   There used to be more Meteorological "thinkers" on the board, and therefore, a willingness and even hunger for the philosophies behind one's forecast reasoning and scientific perspective on matters.  Now it seems no one reads more than skin deep, and anything longer than a tweet its skipped over -- then inappropriately quoted later on... 

 

Hate to come across as cynical, but it's true.  Just is what it is.  

 

It's more my fault.  I keep forgetting that this is no more than a social outlet for the majority that use it.  Yourself, and the nature of your jest, that it was too long for a mere message board, shimmers to that point.  It's not wrong -- I don't want to go there.  I know there are those still out there that want the graphs and philosophies, and would appreciate it and be engaging with the material.  But the over-abundance of the other types of users has really kind of squeezed them out, or just made unsavory, in general.  So they're gone.  Or drop by infrequently. 

[Typhoon Tip]

OP Euro was a total disaster in the LR. Our torch this week has been muted some, but I think we will get some nice days even if they aren't the +20 days guidance was hinting at earlier for Tuesday/Wed.

 

We seem to have a theme this spring where the models first detect some big warm up, then trim it at the book ends per cycle, as well as contaminate it for other reasons, until it is a mere 2 days period of just milder than normal.   

 

The polar indices still are flagging a bit of recession after a week of modest/moderate positive values.  Not sure, but there could/perhaps should be some kind of inclement anti-spring enthusiast type experiences between the 22 and the end of the month.   We'll see.   

[Damage In Tolland]

We seem to have a theme this spring where the models first detect some big warm up, then trim it at the book ends per cycle, as well as contaminate it for other reasons, until it is a mere 2 days period of just milder than normal.

The polar indices still are flagging a bit of recession after a week of modest/moderate positive values. Not sure, but there could/perhaps should be some kind of inclement anti-spring enthusiast type experiences between the 22 and the end of the month. We'll see.

If its snow fine, but the last thing any of us wants us a week if 42 and rain/ sheet drizzle as . we tickle into May. Please don't let that happen. We want warm humid conditions as we get into May

[Typhoon Tip]

If its snow fine, but the last thing any of us wants us a week if 42 and rain/ sheet drizzle as . we tickle into May. Please don't let that happen. We want warm humid conditions as we get into May

 

 

Utterly concur!   With the violent passionate heat of a billion super novea, combined in one epic display of hatred for New England spring-time putrescence ... I agree.  Unfortunately, the poetic opining of an infinite Shakespeare's won't conjure up the weather we desire, nor the power to change the putrescence before it transpires.  

 

To your point ... and I know I have talked about this ad nauseam ... please don't let May 2005 happen; yet it did, unrelenting.    

[Whineminster]

how's Saturday afternoon looking? I'm planning on having a brush burning party but looks like it might be rained out

[NECT]

The final vestiges of winter have sunken into oblivioun just like the Titanic did 101 years ago today.

Winter at 430' is over.

 

Goodbye old friend, until we meet again in November, or maybe October. 

I can picture you and your family holding hands in a circle and shedding a few tears as the last few crystals liquify. Actually, no, no I can't see that at all.

[CoastalWx]

The problem when I look at the euro ensembles for example..is that I cannot find a good H5 pattern to really bring in prolonged warmth. Everything is transient when it comes to that. For example a deep trough in the Plains will pump up ridging in the east, but then the ridging gets pushed east (not good) and we see a +PNA develop with a negatively tilted trough in the Ohio valley (most certainly not good).  In the 11-15 day the ridging gets pushed near Labrador which again..is way too far east and promotes high pressure to the northeast. Now it doesn't have to mean doom and gloom everyday, but that pattern makes it tough to sustain warm days. The torch ticklers only have clouds and onshore flow to help boost their temp depatures up when that happens.

[Damage In Tolland]

Utterly concur! With the violent passionate heat of a billion super novea, combined in one epic display of hatred for New England spring-time putrescence ... I agree. Unfortunately, the poetic opining of an infinite Shakespeare's won't conjure up the weather we desire, nor the power to change the putrescence before it transpires.

To your point ... and I know I have talked about this ad nauseam ... please don't let May 2005 happen; yet it did, unrelenting.

That was the worst month of our lives. We moved into this house that month and my wife was 7-8 months pregnant. Needless to say it wasn't pleasant inside and when I went outside it was worse. I remember moving boxes into the Pod truck we rented and it was 38-39 with rain in mid May. Awful

[powderfreak]

Man just a stunning mid-April day in New England. 

 

T-shirt weather at 41F now in the sun at the base... getting near freezing now up high here but with the sunshine it feels like its in the 50s.

 

Totally concur with Tip that wind-less sunny days can feel exceptionally warm even with temps that would argue otherwise.

 

Get out and enjoy the new ice age.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Man just a stunning mid-April day in New England. 

 

T-shirt weather at 41F now in the sun at the base... getting near freezing now up high here but with the sunshine it feels like its in the 50s.

 

Totally concur with Tip that wind-less sunny days can feel exceptionally warm even with temps that would argue otherwise.

 

Get out and enjoy the new ice age.

 

sun.PNG

 

Man, I love those photos you occasional put up.  That's just like this serene splendor that labors for an apt description.   

[Typhoon Tip]

The problem when I look at the euro ensembles for example..is that I cannot find a good H5 pattern to really bring in prolonged warmth. Everything is transient when it comes to that. For example a deep trough in the Plains will pump up ridging in the east, but then the ridging gets pushed east (not good) and we see a +PNA develop with a negatively tilted trough in the Ohio valley (most certainly not good).  In the 11-15 day the ridging gets pushed near Labrador which again..is way too far east and promotes high pressure to the northeast. Now it doesn't have to mean doom and gloom everyday, but that pattern makes it tough to sustain warm days. The torch ticklers only have clouds and onshore flow to help boost their temp depatures up when that happens.

 

Ha! You end up above normal because the nights are held up, but the days are miserable, so you get to look back at the data and it lies ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

The problem when I look at the euro ensembles for example..is that I cannot find a good H5 pattern to really bring in prolonged warmth. Everything is transient when it comes to that. For example a deep trough in the Plains will pump up ridging in the east, but then the ridging gets pushed east (not good) and we see a +PNA develop with a negatively tilted trough in the Ohio valley (most certainly not good).  In the 11-15 day the ridging gets pushed near Labrador which again..is way too far east and promotes high pressure to the northeast. Now it doesn't have to mean doom and gloom everyday, but that pattern makes it tough to sustain warm days. The torch ticklers only have clouds and onshore flow to help boost their temp depatures up when that happens.

Works for me.

[weatherMA]

You know it's been a cool spring when people walk around at 50F on 4/15 saying it feels warm to hot. It is a beauitful spring day though. Should make it to 57-58.

[Typhoon Tip]

That was the worst month of our lives. We moved into this house that month and my wife was 7-8 months pregnant. Needless to say it wasn't pleasant inside and when I went outside it was worse. I remember moving boxes into the Pod truck we rented and it was 38-39 with rain in mid May. Awful

 

 

it's just I could't believe it was happening at the time.   I think it started right around the 10th of the month with a wet coastal.  I recall it was 42F in mid day, with sheets of rain and wind.   That night, there were howling gale force, tree-top straining gust in the forest adjacent to my house.  Enough to be audible through the closed windows.  The next day, the wind subsided to just breezes, but it misted ... and misted ... and misted, and misted that night, and misted the next day, and the models were keying in on another piece of N stream energy getting dumped into the backside of the mid level gyre along the MA that caused the coastal in the first place, and I couldn't f believe what I was looking at.  

 

We were at 5 days at that point, and the 500mb center drops 10dm at the core all over again upon ingesting that turd of jet dynamic bundle into the backside. The sfc pp imploded a new low along the Del Marva, having never a dry interlude.  That new low would ultimately take 2 days to crawl to a position  100 miles ENE of the Cape, in which time, there were howling gale force, tree-top straining gust in the forest that adjacent to my house.   Enough to be audible through the closed windows.  The wind subsided to just breezes, but it misted ... and misted ... and misted, and misted and misted, and the models were keying in on yet another piece of N stream energy to get dumped into the backside of the mid level gyre along the MA that caused the coastal in the first place, and I couldn't f believe what I was looking at ... and

 

It repeated like that, cycling 4 times.  The sun might have flashed for 15 minutes here and there, but ultimately ineffective.   June 1 comes along and it was the last of them, but by then it was closer to 50F but still wet, wind, mist...egh.   The models were actually showing the low filling and pulling out.  I remember the 6th of the month a ridge erupted and a warm boundary blasted through in the morning.  All that previous month's worth of soil moisture wound up inserting 75dps, and with temps around 93 for a couple days or more, shock.  

 

What is interesting right now is that a month ago I was looking at a bunch of analogs for warm second half of April, and it seems the evolution et al going forward of the general circulation is doing everything in its power to not realize that.  I even posted about those analogs, as did others ... now, I see more evidence for a cold period returning between the 22n and the end of the month.   I fear it could actually mean a west Atlantic circulation that merely steals spring, though; it's just too damn late to think about snow.   We'll see. 

[ORH_wxman]

Meanwhile back down here in BOS at downtown crossing, its been mostly cloudy all day. Unlike the crystal clear shirtless yard work weather near powderfreak.

 

I don't think the marathon runners are complaining about upper 40s and cloudy though...they like it cooler.

[CoastalWx]

Back to back snow-outs for the Mets?

 

One of the most epic April patterns of all time for the Plains. Prepare for all the national nightly news people to send reporters to Fargo, Grand Forks...etc by the end of the month and early May to cover flooding.

[ORH_wxman]

Back to back snow-outs for the Mets?

 

One of the most epic April patterns of all time for the Plains. Prepare for all the national nightly news people to send reporters to Fargo, Grand Forks...etc by the end of the month and early May to cover flooding.

 

 

Another blitzing in the high plains and front range of the Rockies too in Colorado coming up. At least all of this is good for the drought in the plains. Making up a good chunk of ground.

[CoastalWx]

Another blitzing in the high plains and front range of the Rockies too in Colorado coming up. At least all of this is good for the drought in the plains. Making up a good chunk of ground.

 

Look at the departures since March 1st for areas like Fargo and Grand Forks. That's unbelievable.

[Typhoon Tip]

Meanwhile back down here in BOS at downtown crossing, its been mostly cloudy all day. Unlike the crystal clear shirtless yard work weather near powderfreak.

 

I don't think the marathon runners are complaining about upper 40s and cloudy though...they like it cooler.

 

Oh yeah... today is Marathon Monday -- must be mayhem down there between that and the Sox playing right now.   I used to work on Comm Ave, the next street over, down by B.U.  We used to pile out and walk over and watch them got by for a while.  Pretty fun energy in the air between that and all.   

 

It's not a lot warm out here.  I'm 52F, but the sun really off-sets that and makes it feel warmer with the light wind.  I'm actually amazed that I made it to April 15 and the trees are still largely dormant.  There are a few more buds; the red maples have fuzzy balls on their twig tips now -- haha -- anyway, my lilacs are splitting buds. But the forsythias won't flower.  I have some shrub the leafed out, but by and large I am wondering at this point if the general theme is late green-up.  Thing is, it's been a while since we've had a more typical March relay into April, so I am wondering if this is more the norm.  I don't know of any products out there that have "average green-up dates" per se...

[CoastalWx]

I think Fargo's latest 50F temp is April 17th. That will go bye bye too.

[weathafella]

This strikes me as a typical April in the Boston area notwithstanding Kevin's memory not going before 2010.

[dendrite]

Haha. That's nothing! Apparently you were not around when folks would put up dissertations replete with graphical analysis. I have noticed that those that used to spend the time to do that, have moved on ... probably to better/greener pastures where their work is actually appreciated, if not actually being accredited (whether that be higher education, or working). As an afterthought ... I feel I'm left behind in some respects, actually.

Fact of the matter is I'm heading in that direction and readying for an exit, too. Not out of anger ... just that the direction/vision of the site doesn't jive well with me and makes me feel like I am wasting my time, too much of the time. In the earlier days of Wright Weather, and Eastern, there was a kind of "respect"; not for individuals seeking idols, but for the work/effort. They wanted graphs and philosophies. Now, it seems to have become a bastion for those seeking instant gratification and/or are ever dumbed down by the intellectually eroding convenience of the "Tweetistphere" culture. There used to be more Meteorological "thinkers" on the board, and therefore, a willingness and even hunger for the philosophies behind one's forecast reasoning and scientific perspective on matters. Now it seems no one reads more than skin deep, and anything longer than a tweet its skipped over -- then inappropriately quoted later on...

Hate to come across as cynical, but it's true. Just is what it is.

It's more my fault. I keep forgetting that this is no more than a social outlet for the majority that use it. Yourself, and the nature of your jest, that it was too long for a mere message board, shimmers to that point. It's not wrong -- I don't want to go there. I know there are those still out there that want the graphs and philosophies, and would appreciate it and be engaging with the material. But the over-abundance of the other types of users has really kind of squeezed them out, or just made unsavory, in general. So they're gone. Or drop by infrequently.

I think we all appreciate the long thought out posts, but a lot of those who contributed them got gobbled up by energy companies through the site. Then they had to cut back on what they could share here.

[CoastalWx]

This strikes me as a typical April in the Boston area notwithstanding Kevin's memory not going before 2010.

 

Yeah I don't think it's been out of the ordinary....which is usually dealing with useless temps..lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This strikes me as a typical April in the Boston area notwithstanding Kevin's memory not going before 2010.

Nothing really unusual for here. Agreed

[Baroclinic Zone]

Glorious 56F out there!  Love it!

[CoastalWx]

I think there are many that still try to put their thoughts out....I know many did in the Fall and early Winter when it came to discussing the pattern going forward. But when winter really amped up in February...we went into nowcast mode so the posting style changed somewhat. Now we are sort of in the wx doldrums...but I think many people still appreciate Tippy's posts.