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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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Ok now that $hits not hitting the fan anymore.....would love to get some lightning and thunder into Hartford......thoughts?

 

Severe t-storm warning in NW CT... line of storms should weaken as it heads east.

 

Hoping to at least see some lightning from it...

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mcd0546.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0928 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200228Z - 200400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE

RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE THAT CROSSED THE HUDSON

VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE

NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 00Z ALY RAOB INDICATED VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY

FOR A SFC-BASED PARCEL...WITH MODEST CINH ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUX

OF A STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS

CHARACTERISTIC OVER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AN ISOLATED

STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH

THE MOST ROBUST/BOWING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OWING TO STRONG

LOW-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED JUST ABOVE THE SFC IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL

LINE PER VWP DATA. HOWEVER...EVEN FURTHER LESSENING OF

INSTABILITY...AND STRENGTHENING OF CINH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH

NOCTURNAL DIABATIC COOLING...WILL LIKELY PRESENT DELETERIOUS EFFECTS

FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER. AS

SUCH...CONVECTION SHOULD GREATLY STRUGGLE TO ENHANCE SFC WIND GUSTS.

A WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/20/2013

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 42507322 43687266 43907115 42797095 41837142 41467203

41227322 41417368 42507322

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At 1000 pm all across SCT there was a loud bang and houses shook. No explanation, no earthquake. Thousands of reports.

Was pretty mild here...sounded like thunder...house did not shake. It was the same time convection was firing down south across LI...I thought maybe something was just trying to fire overhead. Didn't think much of it until I saw it on Facebook a bit ago. Sonic boom?

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There was on reply on one of the posts from NBC30 but I can't find it.  Some lady said she lived in Long Island and the weatherman said there was a tornado warning upstate so maybe all the winds came down to CT lol

 

There ya go, that totally makes sense... lol

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Was it damaging though?

Looks like we had a cheap 59F high at 5z. 41F now. Maybe we get up into the U50s anyways once it clears.

 

Yes, gonna be a while to clean up.

 

Looks like a meh week overall here. Won't be lousy all the time, but not exactly a warm, sunny week.

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Unless NNE gets serious RA from tonight's CF, I'm guessing the high water won't do much damage except perhaps from some smaller watercourses. I've yet to hear of serious flooding on larger waterways, caused by just snowmelt, not augmented by significant rain and/or ice jams, in this part of the world. Seems to work differently in the upper midwest - upper Mississippi and Red River of the North.

Yeah no big flood issues, especially when the valleys are snow-free.

But even still...we got a half inch last night of rain and the noise is impressive this morning. Standing outside at work it's pretty quiet out except for the roar of water pouring off this mountain. Every drainage is running full tilt right now.

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Thankfully the Euro will bust on the 7-10 day forecast of misery it had. Not a  bad week at all..and certainly glad to be inland away from onshore nonsense. Won't be beautiful,,but should be some nice 60 degree days interspersed.

 

Hopefully May doesn't look as cold as ensembles have it

 

You being 1000ft won't help you at all.

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Thankfully the Euro will bust on the 7-10 day forecast of misery it had. Not a  bad week at all..and certainly glad to be inland away from onshore nonsense. Won't be beautiful,,but should be some nice 60 degree days interspersed.

 

Hopefully May doesn't look as cold as ensembles have it

 

I tried to tell you this upcoming week wouldn't be that bad.  

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By late April I expect to tickle 70F 1-2 days per week. This week won't be terrible, as a whole, but we're still struggling to get real deal warmth up here and it doesn't appear we will anytime soon. We had 80s in mid March last year and I may only get 1 70s through April this year.

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