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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Again, unless you enjoy watching minimal criteria severe than great...but the point is convection just isn't that grand whatsoever. They'll always be a 2008 coming around or a random EML...but in general...meh.

You and ORH are just pissed winter is over. Stop spreading those sour-grapes around these parts and just wait for the baseballs and EF3s.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

It seems like every few years we get a few reports of high-end severe, but it is probably 50x less frequent than the plains or anywhere favorable. 2011, 2006, 2004? (wrentham tornado) ....2000 supercell, for ex.  My memory isn't great but those years had high-end stuff and there's probably more.  Obviously '95 '98

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New England Storm

New England Storm

Posted
Posted

It seems like every few years we get a few reports of high-end severe, but it is probably 50x less frequent than the plains or anywhere favorable. 2011, 2006, 2004? (wrentham tornado) ....2000 supercell, for ex.  My memory isn't great but those years had high-end stuff and there's probably more.  Obviously '95 '98

 

01' I slept during a tornado warned supercell, also had some golfball sized hail that day. One thing that is awesome about severe weather in new england is that although it is rare, we almost always pull something off in less than perfect set ups.  Look back to 60's and 70's even in my neck of the woods we had tornado reports.  Summer in NewEngland is awesome we have all kinds of weather, and lots of warm sunny days to enjoy. The pains and the south wins for high-end severe, we can get high-end severe just not for days and days like the plains. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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You make my point for me - thx!   

 

Like I said, the frequency is less but you get high end severe weather around here - YES WE DO.  In fact, your own product, ORH county has frequency on par with 80% the counties in Tornado alley.   

 

Again,  that's not even the point -- the point is being disenchanted by summer, and therefore, bombasting whenever someone post about liking it.  You're redirecting the conversation to avoid that truth. 

 

Fact of the matter is, we have enough convection around here that is severe enough to look forward to that aspect of summer.  We have had EF4 tornadoes at that, and baseball sized hail, too.  It's not a total loss, not even close.

 

 

Your example is like using 2009-2010 to say DC is good for snow. The same area you continuously tell the residents they shouldn't expect winter wx every year....either you're being hypocritical or just don't understand we aren't that good for severe outside of some flukes.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Severe-snobs already putting me on tilt.  Why does a storm have to peel your roof off to be interesting?  Every storm is wonderful.

 

 

Well we were talking severe...not just regular strong T-storms...so there's some difference. Its perfectly cool to get excited about a nice storm...but Tip arguing we get "hardcore convection" and people enjoying regular storms here is apples to oranges. We were talking frequency...and it sucks here. But we do get lucky every now and then.

 

I enjoy a nice snow squall or a 1-3" clipper, but that is kind of pathetic compared to our potential....so I understand when people don't get hyped for those events.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Your example is like using 2009-2010 to say DC is good for snow. The same area you continuously tell the residents they shouldn't expect winter wx every year....either you're being hypocritical or just don't understand we aren't that good for severe outside of some flukes.

 

I disagree that these are flukes.  People have died. Lots of property damage registered.   There's enough of that over the decades to not preclude that possibility around here; in fact, borderline expected -- certainly enough to keep an interest in that in New England.  And, enough to not launch into a counter-post tirade when other's recognize that truth. 

 

I bet you we have severe more frequently than DC has snow bombs though.  

 

I assure you, there is no lack of understanding at this end -- but if that is what you really need to take away from this debate, okay.  

 

I never said that DC should not be tuned in and interested in their winter threats; I said that realism insists they should not be disappointed when it doesn't work out.  There is no hypocrisy there. 

 

Again, it's not about that... This started out as me being suspicious that some are sour-grapes about having to face summer -- that's what sparked this retaliation.  You're better off just dropping it, because it comes off as defensive, which ruins your case.   

 

It's okay, Will -- you like winter more than summer. So what?  Just admit it.  I don't care. No one cares.  But I do think that I am right that there's enough severe around here to justify a pique of interest.  And, you're own data you posted earlier shows that, as far Tors go.  ORH county has frequency in league with 80% of those counties in the mid drift of the nation.  You can't deny that --- well, there you go.  I think it is pretty clear that you have a bias toward winter that is souring your prospects of enjoying summers.  

 

Be that as it may or may not be, I think you are a talented Met in the end.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I disagree that these are flukes.  People have died. Lots of property damage registered.   There's enough of that over the decades to not preclude that possibility around here; in fact, borderline expected -- certainly enough to keep an interest in that in New England.  

 

I bet you we have severe more frequently than DC has snow bombs though.  

 

I assure you, there is no lack of understanding at this end -- but if that is what you really need to take away from this debate, okay.  

 

 

People die from flukes. I'm not sure your point. If your point is to say we sometimes get high end severe wx...I was never arguing that point. It happens here. It happens here more than NNE and in some pockets of the M.A....but overall we are in a bad spot for severe wx. I already said long ago in this silly argument that we do occasionally get high end severe.

 

I provided data from SPC that shows our frequency and how bad it is compared to the middle of the country when you told me that data would disprove me wrong. Perhaps we were just mis-reading semantical arguments. If that is the case, then we shall agree that all this was silly.

 

People died in Georgia in snowstorms of past lore....that doesn't mean they are a decent spot for extreme winter wx. They get it on occassion...but its rare. Just like here. We aren't devoid of severe wx....that was never the argument.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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People die from flukes. I'm not sure your point. If your point is to say we sometimes get high end severe wx...I was never arguing that point. It happens here. It happens here more than NNE and in some pockets of the M.A....but overall we are in a bad spot for severe wx. I already said long ago in this silly argument that we do occasionally get high end severe.

 

I provided data from SPC that shows our frequency and how bad it is compared to the middle of the country when you told me that data would disprove me wrong. Perhaps we were just mis-reading semantical arguments. If that is the case, then we shall agree that all this was silly.

 

People died in Georgia in snowstorms of past lore....that doesn't mean they are a decent spot for extreme winter wx. They get it on occassion...but its rare. Just like here. We aren't devoid of severe wx....that was never the argument.

 

I didn't say people die from flukes.  I said, these are not flukes -- as in, more frequent than that, and the data shows that.

 

But, no kidding!  A 3" "snow storm" in Georgia is like a 55 mph outflow bow-echo up here. It probably is a dumb semantic moot point though.  The "severe" criteria up here is modulated based on experience, so there is something to that.  

 

Still, I don't think our severe is as rare as S folk getting that kind of snow.  

 

My point is simple, don't discount our severe and trash our summers for interesting Meteorology, because it is simply not supported.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I didn't say people die from flukes.  I said, these are not flukes -- as in, more frequent than that, and the data shows that.

 

But, no kidding!  A 3" "snow storm" in Georgia is like a 55 mph outflow bow-echo up here. It probably is a dumb semantic moot point though.  The "severe" criteria up here is modulated based on experience, so there is something to that.  

 

Still, I don't think our severe is as rare as S folk getting that kind of snow.  

 

My point is simple, don't discount our severe and trash our summers for interesting Meteorology, because it is simply not supported.  

 

 

I provided data on how rare they are...you didn't. You are wrong.

 

Yes we get severe...but its very rare we get high end severe.

 

I didn't discount anything...I said it was rare, and provided data supporting that. It has nothing to do with wanting winter to end or whether or not I (or anyone else poo-pooing severe wx here) dont find sub-severe storms "interesting".

 

If you like sub-severe storms, don't let me stop you. That is cool.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I provided data on how rare they are...you didn't. You are wrong.

 

Yes we get severe...but its very rare we get high end severe.

 

I didn't discount anything...I said it was rare, and provided data supporting that.

 

I'm not wrong, and it is NOT very rare.  And, I did provide data - YOUR DATA!!! When I pointed out the ORH data -- which anyone worth a salt already knows, and is why your stubbornness is frustrating.    YOU are wrong. Your own post showed ORH County has par performance with the majority of Plains counties. Your data. 

 

And, yes you did discount, when you made blanket statements initially, and continue along this line of stubborn refusal, in the face of your own data.  

 

Dude, I shouldn't have to make posts anyway with stats when it's blatantly obvious, anyway.  But you don't apparently acknowledge reality.  

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