OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I'm looking forward to heading home from work (did the am shift)... firing up GR... and watching the svr wx in Oklahoma today. Could be a decent outbreak the way it looks now. I made my target just SW of Lawton last night. Still looks good this morning. 4 km NAM is breaking out discrete supercells in OK later today, that would be some big tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I'm looking forward to heading home from work (did the am shift)... firing up GR... and watching the svr wx in Oklahoma today. Could be a decent outbreak the way it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I made my target just SW of Lawton last night. Still looks good this morning. 4 km NAM is breaking out discrete supercells in OK later today, that would be some big tornadoes. If there are any discrete supercells down in that environment there will be fairly strong potential for some strong/violent tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Off for the next week after an 8 day stretch of mornings. Heading to DC tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 If there are any discrete supercells down in that environment there will be fairly strong potential for some strong/violent tornadoes. No doubt. If the cap can hold a bit and discrete supercells develop this afternoon watch out. Could be a nasty day in OK. The live streams from the stations down there are always awesome with their choppers and chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Off for the next week after an 8 day stretch of mornings. Heading to DC tomorrow morning. Yeah I remember you said you were heading down to see Ian. Hopefully the wx is decent down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 No doubt. If the cap can hold a bit and discrete supercells develop this afternoon watch out. Could be a nasty day in OK. The live streams from the stations down there are always awesome with their choppers and chasers. OUN will be launching a balloon in ten minutes. So we should have a good idea of the cap situation soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I'm looking forward to heading home from work (did the am shift)... firing up GR... and watching the svr wx in Oklahoma today. Could be a decent outbreak the way it looks now. I got GR too finally a few weeks ago Will be watching during my chem class Which GR product do you two have? I use GREarth and GRLevel3. Really like the GREarth product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Which GR product do you two have? I use GREarth and GRLevel3. Really like the GREarth product. Got GR 2 analyst and GR 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Yeah you did Ryan. I totally forgot...my fault. Chris, thanks or those. Still can't believe how long that was on the ground for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 LCL's around 500-700m as well with strong 0-1 shear/helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Where's the boundary located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 Most people do. Summer is meant to be hot and humid with plenty of storms. Cool summers blow It depends... The summer of 2000 was brutal for that, sure, because it was so cool much of the time that even convection was suppressed. But that's actually pretty rare. I liked the summer of 2008 and 2009, when there was semi-persistent cool pool aloft, though. The days may not have been that hot, but by 3pm there was warnings for thunder daily it seems for all of June and July. I remember a super cell rolled up just inside of I 495 with nickle hail, and it was 60F/60F BEFORE it hit -- like the mid were so unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Yeah I remember you said you were heading down to see Ian. Hopefully the wx is decent down there. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Which GR product do you two have? I use GREarth and GRLevel3. Really like the GREarth product. GR2Analyst Yeah you did Ryan. I totally forgot...my fault. Chris, thanks or those. Still can't believe how long that was on the ground for. No worries I thought for a second I forgot to send them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 there's plenty of hillbillys in CT (or any state for that matter) Especially that hill-person that lives up Mt Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 Thunderstorms suck in New England...so wishing for them here is like wishing for big snowstorms in Atlanta. Yeah, occasionally you get some snow, but the truely great events rarely happen there...same here for convection .Unless you consider a 40 knot gust and some pea sized hail with an isolatred dime sized mixed in as a great event. Cool summers that aren't overly rainy are the best. 2004 FTW. Yeah, I'm sure most would have agreed with you around July of 1953 - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Thursday looks nice ahead of the front. 70s possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Yeah, I'm sure most would have agreed with you around July of 1953 - haha What about the Tornado in Springfield a couple years back or has that already been forgotten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 I don't know if I agree with this anti-convection sentiment being rumbled on page 8 ... You have your druthers, sure -- that's your prerogative. But, I can recall some epic thunderstorm events in Massachusetts that were every bit as comparable to those I experience in the Midwest growing up. Granted, they are not as frequent -- that's just statistically proven and an inarguable fact. But, they do happen. Druthers are not necessarily fact. The sentiment aspect sounds suspiciously like seasonal change/acceptance sour-grapes. It's a pattern of posting behavior, and I see it repeating. People should use this to reflect on their own psychologies in the matter, so they can see how they appear to others. But when a few posters make an honest sentiment about liking summers for heat and thunderstorms, then there is a barrage of ensuing posts that attack those view point by saying dead-panned that it sucks for that in New England, period, it is suggestive of a lot of underpinning motivation. There have been EF4 tornadoes, and macro bursts (1998), and Derechos (1995) on plenty of occurrences, other times. Just to clarify: an EF4 in Kansas is an EF4 here (hello). I have seen golf ball sized hail here that's left permanent pocks in a friend's car -- oh, Golf ball hail is less destructive here than in OKC, I forgot. We just had a massive forestry disaster near Monson Mass a couple clicks ago. I can just go on and on and on.... The truth is, summers bore the winter heads that use the forum, regardless. So as a quasi resentment they cast and dire pal over the ensuing warm season and piss on the party for those that like summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Today's outbreak will be interesting. Seems like there are some red flags, but SPC knows better than I do. Certainly ingredients pointing to a decent event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I don't know if I agree with this anti-convection sentiment being rumbled on page 8 ... You have your druthers, sure -- that's your prerogative. But, I can recall some epic thunderstorm events in Massachusetts that were every bit as comparable to those I experience in the Midwest growing up. Granted, they are not as frequent -- that's just statistically proven and an inarguable fact. But, they do happen. Druthers are not necessarily fact. The sentiment aspect sounds suspiciously like seasonal change/acceptance sour-grapes. It's a pattern of posting behavior, and I see it repeating. People should use this to reflect on their own psychologies in the matter, so they can see how they appear to others. But when a few posters make an honest sentiment about liking summers for heat and thunderstorms, then there is a barrage of ensuing posts that attack those view point by saying dead-panned that it sucks for that in New England, period, it is suggestive of a lot of underpinning motivation. There have been EF4 tornadoes, and macro bursts (1998), and Derechos (1995) on plenty of occurrences, other times. Just to clarify: an EF4 in Kansas is an EF4 here (hello). I have seen golf ball sized hail here that's left permanent pocks in a friend's car -- oh, Golf ball hail is less destructive here than in OKC, I forgot. We just had a massive forestry disaster near Monson Mass a couple clicks ago. I can just go on and on and on.... The truth is, summers bore the winter heads that use the forum, regardless. So as a quasi resentment they cast and dire pal over the ensuing warm season and piss on the party for those that like summer. It seems as if the main pocket of severe weather is shifting eastward a bit from the central/southern plains into the TN Valley and gulf region with MS/AL and northward into TN and KY seeing some of the worst tornado outbreaks in recent years. Is their any truth to this theory/observation and if so what are the main causes? Will this continue to shift eastward over time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 It seems as if the main pocket of severe weather is shifting eastward a bit from the central/southern plains into the TN Valley and gulf region with MS/AL and northward into TN and KY seeing some of the worst tornado outbreaks in recent years. Is their any truth to this theory/observation and if so what are the main causes? Will this continue to shift eastward over time? Probably related to La Nina and decadal cycles. -PDO and La Ninas will mean big outbreaks in the deep south and OV with trough axis being into the Rockies and Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I don't think summer causes people like me to be a Debbie when it comes to storms. Look at Kevin...a weenie in winter and weenie in summer. More often than not, we can luck out, overachieve, and do well when it comes to winter events....but summer tstms here bust more often than not. For me, it's part of the reason I can't get excited until 60DBZ echoes are in Newton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I don't think summer causes people like me to be a Debbie when it comes to storms. Look at Kevin...a weenie in winter and weenie in summer. More often than not, we can luck out, overachieve, and do well when it comes to winter events....but summer tstms here bust more often than not. For me, it's part of the reason I can't get excited until 60DBZ echoes are in Newton. It's funny because I find an inch or two of snow just as exciting as a run of the mill thunderstorm with scattered svr wx in parts of the region. I'm definitely in the minority on that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 http://www.chasertv.com/ No doubt. If the cap can hold a bit and discrete supercells develop this afternoon watch out. Could be a nasty day in OK. The live streams from the stations down there are always awesome with their choppers and chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I'm actually a big fan of thunderstorms despite me not gettting excited in most of our threats. I've just been spoiled by real convection out in Texas and Oklahoma so the events we get here aren't that exciting to me since probably 90% of them are sub-severe or barely make severe criteria. I'll get excited if there is a reason to, but in a lot of our setups, the writing is on the wall before they happen. Setups like 2008 can be fun because we'll get a lot of cold air aloft but yet be on the east side of the low-level temp boundary and we get nice lapse rates. Probably one of the reasons we had a lot of hail events that year. Yes, my sentiments exactly. The Plains rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 It seems as if the main pocket of severe weather is shifting eastward a bit from the central/southern plains into the TN Valley and gulf region with MS/AL and northward into TN and KY seeing some of the worst tornado outbreaks in recent years. Is their any truth to this theory/observation and if so what are the main causes? Will this continue to shift eastward over time? I don't know -- something like that would have to be studied over decades though. The natural variability of events could meander maximums all over the region east of the Rockies, and it wouldn't necessarily be tied into anything other than chaos. Heck, GW could play a role for all we know. But we don't. Not without a lot of science and peer review of those findings, do hypothesis born theories. As just another talking head on a non-refereed forum, I'd have to say that the distribution of convection frequencies is probably connected to the "character" of the PNAP (Perennial North American Pattern) bias at any given time. But that's a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 It's funny because I find an inch or two of snow just as exciting as a run of the mill thunderstorm with scattered svr wx in parts of the region. I'm definitely in the minority on that one though. I find a good tstm with close strobes exciting too...but even that is tough to come by...lol. It's akin to having my flags out when we have east winds in December while a storm approaches. I always have flags out for most setups. But, it's not like we live on Sable Island...we can get lit up good from time to time. I guess watching those reds in the Berks turn to anvil rains as it hit coastal mass turned me sour when I was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 It's funny because I find an inch or two of snow just as exciting as a run of the mill thunderstorm with scattered svr wx in parts of the region. I'm definitely in the minority on that one though. I'm with you there, Ryan. I can jump tracks on a dime if the weather event, its self, is interesting. I think I'd by balled over with OCD fascination at an inch of snow in June, just for the absurdity of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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