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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter


Typhoon Tip

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I mean in 2008 all we had were see texts...but we had hail like a MOFO. I remember Derry NH had 3 seperate SVR hail reports in one day! Now that's impressive.

 

That year really showed what cold pool alofts could really do.  I'm sure there were many in this area that had a great understanding of them but I feel like those at the SPC were just unfamiliar with what they can really do, especially around here.  

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I'm doing some research with hail at work, so I'm familiar with this event. Much of that hail was significant too, golf balls and greater.

 

Besides the cold pool setups what also really helped was with so many days of convection there were always boundaries of some sort leftover and these really played a major factor at times...was it August 7th or 8th where this was especially true

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I'm actually a big fan of thunderstorms despite me not gettting excited in most of our threats. I've just been spoiled by real convection out in Texas and Oklahoma so the events we get here aren't that exciting to me since probably 90% of them are sub-severe or barely make severe criteria.  

 

I'll get excited if there is a reason to, but in a lot of our setups, the writing is on the wall before they happen. Setups like 2008 can be fun because we'll get a lot of cold air aloft but yet be on the east side of the low-level temp boundary and we get nice lapse rates. Probably one of the reasons we had a lot of hail events that year.

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Besides the cold pool setups what also really helped was with so many days of convection there were always boundaries of some sort leftover and these really played a major factor at times...was it August 7th or 8th where this was especially true

 

Sometimes those cold fronts that just sort of wash out instead of driving through the area can provide just as much focus for afternoon convection. I think those result in a lot of the big "See Text" days.

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Saw that tornado in my avatar tickling Narragansett Bay (just before moving to DVN). A day later was the NH tornado.

 

Summer of the spouts?

 

I agree with Will...I love a good storm, but more often than not...it gets to be a disappointment. I used to get so upset when I was a kid seeing the squall line crap out east of the Berks. Of course part of it has to do with where I live and part of it has to do with storms just outrunning there support too.

 

BTW, if you ever have a second...is there anyway you can look at the data for the NH TOR from BOX or GYX and see if that cell actually had rotation as it passed Andover MA? A friend of mine joked about seeing rotation in that cell as it passed overhead not knowing what would happen.... and then we know what happened 15-20 min later. It probably was just some low level scud flying around, but I'm just curious. 

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Sometimes those cold fronts that just sort of wash out instead of driving through the area can provide just as much focus for afternoon convection. I think those result in a lot of the big "See Text" days.

 

Those are tough to forecast too. Sometimes you'll know your screwed by 11 a.m. when the dew point hasn't dropped and that front isn't moving anywhere. 

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Summer of the spouts?

 

I agree with Will...I love a good storm, but more often than not...it gets to be a disappointment. I used to get so upset when I was a kid seeing the squall line crap out east of the Berks. Of course part of it has to do with where I live and part of it has to do with storms just outrunning there support too.

 

BTW, if you ever have a second...is there anyway you can look at the data from BOX or GYX and see if that cell actually had rotation as it passed Andover MA? A friend of mine joked about seeing rotation in that cell as it passed overhead not knowing what would happen.... and then we know what happened 15-20 min later. It probably was just some low level scud flying around, but I'm just curious. 

 

Didn't I send you the images on that? I may not have emailed them to you but I know you asked when I pulled all the BOX/GYX data from the NH tornado day.

 

Had dual pol been around in 2008 GYX definitely would have avoided that warning debacle. 

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Sometimes those cold fronts that just sort of wash out instead of driving through the area can provide just as much focus for afternoon convection. I think those result in a lot of the big "See Text" days.

 

That's definitely something else to really consider.  If the front washes out, drier air really isn't going to work in so you still have your humid airmass (though perhaps the dews will be 3-5F cooler) but now you have a boundary right over your head and with sufficient heating and the cooler air working in the mid-levels that is all you really need.  We saw this happen in 2008 as well.

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Didn't I send you the images on that? I may not have emailed them to you but I know you asked when I pulled all the BOX/GYX data from the NH tornado day.

Had dual pol been around in 2008 GYX definitely would have avoided that warning debacle.

Would Dual Pol have helped with the BOX Springfield debacle when it was OTG for 20 mins before the TOR warning?
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Summer of the spouts?

 

I agree with Will...I love a good storm, but more often than not...it gets to be a disappointment. I used to get so upset when I was a kid seeing the squall line crap out east of the Berks. Of course part of it has to do with where I live and part of it has to do with storms just outrunning there support too.

 

BTW, if you ever have a second...is there anyway you can look at the data for the NH TOR from BOX or GYX and see if that cell actually had rotation as it passed Andover MA? A friend of mine joked about seeing rotation in that cell as it passed overhead not knowing what would happen.... and then we know what happened 15-20 min later. It probably was just some low level scud flying around, but I'm just curious. 

 

Shouldn't be too hard. I'm already in that mode with the moderate risk in the Plains.

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Would Dual Pol have helped with the BOX Springfield debacle when it was OTG for 20 mins before the TOR warning?

 

It's possible. Then again it also could have been too far from any one radar to see debris getting lofted to beam level. By Monson it definitely would have been able to detect debris.

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Well we've discussed this ad nauseum , but ALB radar clearly showed it

 

The rotation yes, but there is no guarantee that debris would have been visible at that point. Sometimes it needs to be very close to the radar in order to be detected. The rotation part of it I have no argument against.

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The rotation yes, but there is no guarantee that debris would have been visible at that point. Sometimes it needs to be very close to the radar in order to be detected. The rotation part of it I have no argument against.

 

I'm guessing the TDS wouldn't have been visible until around 430 when the tornado warning was issued. Obviously we know that there were issues with the initial issuance being missed and then the warning lapsing with the thing on the ground but I doubt dual pol would have helped. 

 

The TDS would have helped in the NH case since there were no ground truth reports for so long while the tornado was on the ground. 

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The rotation yes, but there is no guarantee that debris would have been visible at that point. Sometimes it needs to be very close to the radar in order to be detected. The rotation part of it I have no argument against.

 

I'm amazed at how well dual pol works. After taking the training courses from WDTB online I wasn't sure how often we'd really see TDS... but they seem to pop up frequently when something's on the ground for a while through a wooded area. With all the trees in the northeast it probably helps get some crap up into the updrafts as opposed to the plains. 

 

I think it was last August when there was a clear as day TDS on a supercell embedded in a LEWP in Lancaster County PA that went unwarned and the thing had a TDS for a couple volume scans. 

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BTW, if you ever have a second...is there anyway you can look at the data for the NH TOR from BOX or GYX and see if that cell actually had rotation as it passed Andover MA? A friend of mine joked about seeing rotation in that cell as it passed overhead not knowing what would happen.... and then we know what happened 15-20 min later. It probably was just some low level scud flying around, but I'm just curious. 

 

 

post-44-0-69954500-1366210037_thumb.png

 

To me the storm in question is too far west to be seen from Andover. It passed more or less right over ASH. You can see there is clearly some weak low level rotation at this point (that became not so weak in NH as we know). There were earlier storms around 13z that went right over Andover that had weak rotation as well, they just didn't amount to much.

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I'm amazed at how well dual pol works. After taking the training courses from WDTB online I wasn't sure how often we'd really see TDS... but they seem to pop up frequently when something's on the ground for a while through a wooded area. With all the trees in the northeast it probably helps get some crap up into the updrafts as opposed to the plains. 

 

I think it was last August when there was a clear as day TDS on a supercell embedded in a LEWP in Lancaster County PA that went unwarned and the thing had a TDS for a couple volume scans. 

 

I'm hopeful it becomes a really useful tool for the GYX CWA. Our prime area for tornadoes is right off the higher terrain from that area of NH into southern Oxford, Franklin, and Somerset counties in ME. That Oxford/Franklin County area is very close to our radar, and should be well within range to see TDSs.

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Severe T-Storms and TAN don't go together.  Narragansett Bay kiilz all.

 

Barrington, RI FTL.

 

The funny part is the waterspout I saw was far more likely than a severe thunderstorm just because of the stabilizing effect of the bay. However, that waterspout was tornadic in nature, making it a lot more rare in the end.

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I'm hopeful it becomes a really useful tool for the GYX CWA. Our prime area for tornadoes is right off the higher terrain from that area of NH into southern Oxford, Franklin, and Somerset counties in ME. That Oxford/Franklin County area is very close to our radar, and should be well within range to see TDSs.

 

There was one in Georgia a few weeks ago in the middle of nowhere. Little if any damage reports. NWS wound up doing a survey on that thing... I'm guessing they wouldn't have had their not been a monster debris signature for 30 minutes or so. 

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There was one in Georgia a few weeks ago in the middle of nowhere. Little if any damage reports. NWS wound up doing a survey on that thing... I'm guessing they wouldn't have had their not been a monster debris signature for 30 minutes or so. 

 

Exactly. Pretty common for storms to roll through our CWA too with no damage reports. Trees down on a logging road doesn't always raise red flags.

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Exactly. Pretty common for storms to roll through our CWA too with no damage reports. Trees down on a logging road doesn't always raise red flags.

I'm looking forward to heading home from work (did the am shift)... firing up GR... and watching the svr wx in Oklahoma today. Could be a decent outbreak the way it looks now. 

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Barrington, RI FTL.

 

The funny part is the waterspout I saw was far more likely than a severe thunderstorm just because of the stabilizing effect of the bay. However, that waterspout was tornadic in nature, making it a lot more rare in the end.

I don't think I have ever verified severe in the 9 years I've lived here.

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