Hoosier Posted April 14, 2013 Author Share Posted April 14, 2013 GFS not exactly being a model of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Back to the drawing boards for the POS NAM and GFS. What junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Back to the drawing boards for the POS NAM and GFS. What junk. Yeah they're pretty bad. What I don't understand is computing prowess is increasing exponentially, yet our American models have not only not improved, I think they've even regressed. Really don't get that. Euro isn't perfect by any means, but it seems to be the best model overall IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Yeah they're pretty bad. What I don't understand is computing prowess is increasing exponentially, yet our American models have not only not improved, I think they've even regressed. Really don't get that. Euro isn't perfect by any means, but it seems to be the best model overall IMO. How about we get the GFS to work half ass out to 120 hrs.. no no... we'll run that pile of crap out to 384 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 NAM shouldn't even be looked at...outside 24 hours, if that. Complete whiff locally with the last storm. The short term complete failure by the GFS with the March 24-25 snowstorm is one I'll remember. Euro has its relatively minor burps, from time to time, but remains the go to model of choice in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Can't remember the last time I've looked at the NAM.. Probably the last big storm here in Feb.. If there is no snow threat I have no use for it as I don't care about severe. Not having the Euro at my disposal anymore to look at you really start to see just how much a pile of Junk the GFS is when it's your only model to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 With some of the Sandy supplemental going to buying a new supercomputer for NCEP even more powerful than the ECMWF has, the major upgrade to the GFS in 2014 or at the latest within the next 2 years should help bridge the gap. It's going to be improved to I think 15km resolution and the data assimilation will be as close to 4DVAR without actually being 4DVAR (forgot what the name is at the moment). So hopefully the ECMWF being a consistently better model than the GFS will be a thing of the past. As for the NAM, if I'm not mistaken it'll be getting some form of upgrade too. Let's hope it goes back to being a useful model again because agreed that it's been mostly terrible for quite some time now with only a few exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 The NAM should get one of those updates like the GGEM got, lol. The NAM hires at least got a big part of that late February storm system correct, which was shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Best news in a long time! Thanks much, Ricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I imagine the changing of the seasons and wild weather swings is doing the gfs no favors either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Best news in a long time! Thanks much, Ricky. Much obliged. Straight from the director of the NWS who we met with when he was in town last weekend for Skilling's seminar. He also presented the info at the seminar. As for what the GFS is likely to struggle with now is its moisture fields, specifically dewpoints. Still seems to be showing a similar high bias with dews like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 With some of the Sandy supplemental going to buying a new supercomputer for NCEP even more powerful than the ECMWF has, the major upgrade to the GFS in 2014 or at the latest within the next 2 years should help bridge the gap. It's going to be improved to I think 15km resolution and the data assimilation will be as close to 4DVAR without actually being 4DVAR (forgot what the name is at the moment). So hopefully the ECMWF being a consistently better model than the GFS will be a thing of the past. As for the NAM, if I'm not mistaken it'll be getting some form of upgrade too. Let's hope it goes back to being a useful model again because agreed that it's been mostly terrible for quite some time now with only a few exceptions. Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 To me it doesn't seem like the GFS problem is just inferior data assimilation. It seems to have a worse progressive trending bias than the ECMWF for the medium-long range, even inside truncation. It also seems to maintain straight skinny troughs that in reality always end up breaking into cutoffs or multiple lows. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 this is a keeper! And it can be used at any time of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Yeah it's the 18z GFS.. but it came back east with the snow. Less intense though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 18z run still showing snow for WI, little bit of Iowa. Big story will definitely be the massive amounts of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 00z NAM looks like its showing a developing deform band at the end of its run over S IA and N MO. Well will see how long that lasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Hope the gfs is as far off as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 lol @ the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 At least none of that snow on the NAM will accumulate over 3" of standing water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 lol @ the NAM You mean this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 EURO seems to be lowering snow chances. YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Winter storm, Yogi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Spring cancel for these areas this month for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Jealous of snowfall and snowpack over the U.P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Duluth. +SN...2"/hour...20" OTG. METAR KDLH 182355Z 01014G19KT 1/4SM R09/2000V2600FT +SN FG VV005 01/M02 A2957 RMK AO2 SLP031 SNINCR 2/20 P0012 60041 T00061017 10017 20006 58012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Duluth. +SN...2"/hour...20" OTG. METAR KDLH 182355Z 01014G19KT 1/4SM R09/2000V2600FT +SN FG VV005 01/M02 A2957 RMK AO2 SLP031 SNINCR 2/20 P0012 60041 T00061017 10017 20006 58012 D*mn! A lot of snow for April 18th, even up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 D*mn! A lot of snow for April 18th, even up there. This one will put them over the top for the snowiest April on record. 1) 31.6" in 1950 2) 25.5" in 2013 thru 4/17 3) 24.4" in 1961 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 duluth and far nw tip of wi getting smoked. Plows are off the road for the night in Ashland. PM0816 PM SNOW OULU 46.63N 91.53W 04/18/2013 M10.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER PM SNOW HAWTHORNE 46.50N 91.86W 04/18/2013 M11.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER 0819 PM SNOW GRANTSBURG 45.78N 92.68W 04/18/2013 M9.0 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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