wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 I think everyone is just sick of the cold weather. If we would have had a week or so of sustained warmth already, I think people would be more accepting to one last snow. I would warmer weather like most everyone else... but why not, let's have one last snow to make this cold month worth while and hit our average snowfall for the month! That would make sense but is a cold rain any better, and for many, if this next system doesn't bring snow, it will be a cold rain still followed by more cooler than average temps whether they receive snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2013 Author Share Posted April 13, 2013 Yeah, I don't get why some are trying to wish this away. It's going to be miserably cold for this time of year, that is pretty much a certainty, so why not have some action to go along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 That looks like a pretty beefy severe setup on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 That looks like a pretty beefy severe setup on the 00z GFS.Wrong thread holmes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Wrong thread holmes.. So we're using the Mid Range Svr Discussion thread for this for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 That would make sense but is a cold rain any better, and for many, if this next system doesn't bring snow, it will be a cold rain still followed by more cooler than average temps whether they receive snow or not. Yeah, I don't get why some are trying to wish this away. It's going to be miserably cold for this time of year, that is pretty much a certainty, so why not have some action to go along with it. There is the misconception that this will be a cold rain or snow, the problem is if the low is going North of you location it won't be a cold rain, look at how warm it was just the other day and this system will have another system priming the pump so to speak with the system on Monday going to the North, so it could very well be near 80 in the areas that end up in the warm sector. This is why people are rooting against a snowstorm, they saw how the areas were in the last warm sector and would like to get in on that warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2013 Author Share Posted April 13, 2013 There is the misconception that this will be a cold rain or snow, the problem is if the low is going North of you location it won't be a cold rain, look at how warm it was just the other day and this system will have another system priming the pump so to speak with the system on Monday going to the North, so it could very well be near 80 in the areas that end up in the warm sector. This is why people are rooting against a snowstorm, they saw how the areas were in the last warm sector and would like to get in on that warmth. What I meant is that a cold dump on the backside of this storm looks likely. Consistent warmth is not walking through the door. I hate cold this time of year as much as the next guy but if it's going to happen, might as well get "rewarded" for it with some snow. That's my perspective anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 If the 18z GFS were to verify, seems as though portions of lower MI could get a nasty ice storm... Definitely the right kind of setup and what better than the typical ice storm in mid-April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 What I meant is that a cold dump on the backside of this storm looks likely. Consistent warmth is not walking through the door. I hate cold this time of year as much as the next guy but if it's going to happen, might as well get "rewarded" for it with some snow. That's my perspective anyway. That and it is very unlikely that anyone north of Milwaukee to Detroit will get into the warm sector, so it is in some ways snow or bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 0z GFS back west a bit. Favoring DLL and Turtle the most. edit: and Bo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 What I meant is that a cold dump on the backside of this storm looks likely. Consistent warmth is not walking through the door. I hate cold this time of year as much as the next guy but if it's going to happen, might as well get "rewarded" for it with some snow. That's my perspective anyway. Yes and congrats to MSP and LSE on their forthcoming snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 0z GFS back west a bit. Favoring DLL and Turtle the most. Somewhat similar to the Euro, which isn't surprising. Des Moines/La Crosse/UP looking decent. Areas further east including here probably will just get another cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 That and it is very unlikely that anyone north of Milwaukee to Detroit will get into the warm sector, so it is in some ways snow or bust here. What is stopping this from going NW? There is absolutely no blocking to be found, with a +AO/+NAO/-PNA there is absolutely nothing that is stopping this from adjusting further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 0z GFS back west a bit. Favoring DLL and Turtle the most. Anyone see what hour that is? Models have a hard enough time beyond 72 and even 120hrs let alone 168hrs and that includes the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Anyone see what hour that is? Models have a hard enough time beyond 72 and even 120hrs let alone 168hrs and that includes the euro. The EURO and GFS are consistent with snow on the backside of that system though for the western Lakes. It is most likely that far western areas of our subforum will see snow from this, but it could come further east - who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2013 Author Share Posted April 13, 2013 What is stopping this from going NW? There is absolutely no blocking to be found, with a +AO/+NAO/-PNA there is absolutely nothing that is stopping this from adjusting further NW. Storm-scale details sometimes screw things up. What if the trough stays positively tilted for a long time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 What is stopping this from going NW? There is absolutely no blocking to be found, with a +AO/+NAO/-PNA there is absolutely nothing that is stopping this from adjusting further NW. See the system ( Mon-Tues ) ahead of that system later in the week which brings the snow threat further se. Thus the blocker. FWIW the NAO is still on the negative side as well. Models had it positive by now so yeah. Not to say it wont go positive either. Just pointing out that modeling has not been stellar as of late with that stuff. It may end up positive but still the issue of the Mon-Tues system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Yeah, I don't get why some are trying to wish this away. It's going to be miserably cold for this time of year, that is pretty much a certainty, so why not have some action to go along with it. Well because I will either end up with a cold rain or a slushy few inches. So no thanks. I'm sick of this nickel and dime crap. I want severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 The EURO and GFS are consistent with snow on the backside of that system though for the western Lakes. It is most likely that far western areas of our subforum will see snow from this, but it could come further east - who knows! It really looks like the same exact set up we have had this week. Main difference is the lead system ( Mon-Tues ) looks to get us deeper into the warm sector before the front comes crashing to the south later Tuesday ahead of the next ( main ) system headed up on Thurs/Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Storm-scale details sometimes screw things up. What if the trough stays positively tilted for a long time? If that were to happen then there is a chance someone gets a sloppy few inches sure, the whole reason this system is showing huge snow is because it goes negative tilted. See the system ( Mon-Tues ) ahead of that system later in the week which brings the snow threat further se. Thus the blocker. FWIW the NAO is still on the negative side as well. Models had it positive by now so yeah. Not to say it wont go positive either. Just pointing out that modeling has not been stellar as of late with that stuff. It may end up positive but still the issue of the Mon-Tues system. Usually that would be the case, but that system sails right along into Canada and wouldn't form a blocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 I understand why the hobbyists want no more snow, but why does nearly everyone else want to avoid it as well? In April and May it is a unique experience, so even though it isn't great for travel or welcomed by the general public, it's hard to believe this snow enthusiast dominated forum wants it to stay away. Because "uniqueness" stats don't really interest me as much as actual significant weather. A slushy 1-2" in April is no more special to me than it is in January. If we were actually talking about a significant event maybe I would get excited. Also, I've been under THICK cloudcover for almost a week now and it's beginning to wear on me. I'm just really sick of being perpetually stuck in the 40s with a 500ft ceiling of dingy featureless gray. I had the worst time getting out of bed this morning in ages. Who would have thunk April would start out even drearier than March. I'd rather have a more northwesterly track that guarantees I get at least a few hours in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 If that were to happen then there is a chance someone gets a sloppy few inches sure, the whole reason this system is showing huge snow is because it goes negative tilted. Usually that would be the case, but that system sails right along into Canada and wouldn't form a blocker. The system itself YES but it brings down a cold high behind it and thus the blocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 The system itself YES but it brings down a cold high behind it and thus the blocker. Overaggressive high pressure, I guess we will see what happens but I am skeptical of the snow potential locally, regionally there will surely be someone who gets snow especially with this trough going negatively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Overaggressive high pressure, I guess we will see what happens but I am skeptical of the snow potential locally, regionally there will surely be someone who gets snow especially with this trough going negatively tilted. I agree as far as snow goes locally ( S.MI ). Always could be the back end flurry action but i kinda doubt much else at this point. Not impossible but yeah it is gonna take a bit more to get that here. Plenty of time for it to change but the odd's are against it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 12z GFS is quite a bit different. System comes out in 2 waves. A mild rain for the first wave over the western Lakes and then a cold rain with the second wave with little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Models are certainly trending away from a big, strong, neg tilt system. It's still 4-5 days out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 12z GFS is quite a bit different. System comes out in 2 waves. A mild rain for the first wave over the western Lakes and then a cold rain with the second wave with little snow. not seeing the 2 waves/lows on the 12z.. 0z had that though. looks like waa rains and then the low on 12z gfs. Not sure what euro shows but gfs is probably caving to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 not seeing the 2 waves/lows on the 12z.. 0z had that though. looks like waa rains and then the low on 12z gfs. Not sure what euro shows but gfs is probably caving to it. I was looking at this... and then this other wave of moisture that comes as it's cooling down around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 I was looking more at this on the 0z second "wave" gave us snow. 12z is more like one big strung out pos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 18z way northwest now. Poor MN and the Dakota's. They're going to go from straight from winter to summer with no spring whatsoever if this keeps up. For most of us, it's going to be a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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