A Little Known Prediction by Judith Lean and David Rind

[ORH_wxman]

The age old denier spin game.

 

Take a busted prediction from one they call an "alarmist" and compare it to reality to create a perceived reality for those who wish that to be true.

 

It was done with the sea ice masterfully from 2009-2011. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alarmist rhetorics are similar....they use Greenland and Arctic sea ice extent to justify their alarmist thinking when trying to counter why global sfc temps have not followed models in the past 10-15 years. Extreme arguments use completely illegitimate props like tornado counts and hurricane/TC counts.

 

I think both tactics are pretty silly. The real solution is to just figure out what is going on and not try to paint some picture one way or the other when it isn't there.

 

 

This thread is pretty dumb since a 5 year prediction makes little sense when ENSO is so hard to predict.

[Snow_Miser]

This thread is pretty dumb since a 5 year prediction makes little sense when ENSO is so hard to predict.

 

I disagree. The reviewers didn't think the prediction was dumb when they published the paper, and the authors of the paper didn't think making a 5 year prediction was dumb when they made the prediction.

 

ENSO is not the only factor that is responsible for the discrepancy though. Both Skier and I agreed on that point. It's the other factors besides ENSO that are worth talking about in this thread.

[ORH_wxman]

I disagree. The reviewers didn't think the prediction was dumb when they published the paper, and the authors of the paper didn't think making a 5 year prediction was dumb when they made the prediction.

 

ENSO is not the only factor that is responsible for the discrepancy though. Both Skier and I agreed on that point. It's the other factors besides ENSO that are worth talking about in this thread.

 

 

Well I wasn't speculating on the reasons for the discrepancy, just merely stating why I think the excercise is somewhat futile. ENSO is the dominating factor in short term temperatures. There's obviously some other factors there as well but none as large as ENSO (unless we get something like a Pinatubo eruption). So forecasting short term temperature would require somewhat accurately forecasting ENSO out several years which I don't believe has been a successful task in the science to date.

[skierinvermont]

And as I've said the paper wasn't a Prediction it was a projection based on tsi and agw alone.they specifically discuss the large influence Enzo coould have on those projections. The only thing dumb here is sls thread.

[Snow_Miser]

And as I've said the paper wasn't a Prediction it was a projection based on tsi and agw alone.they specifically discuss the large influence Enzo coould have on those projections. The only thing dumb here is sls thread.

 

And even when TSI and AGW alone are accounted for, the prediction still falls short. You gave good reasons for why this may be, and I gave other reasons for why this may be. It may be that there are many factors creating this hiatus that will continue to influence the hiatus/cooling period over the next 2-3 decades.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Clearly people do not understand what cooling means.

 

2013 pretty much sums it up.

 

We have no NINO but global temps and sst's are very warm for not having one.

 

There is no indication of cooling. If the warmer enso state was here now, global temps would be at record levels.  This can not be without a positive energy imbalance.

 

 

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

Clearly people do not understand what cooling means.

 

2013 pretty much sums it up.

 

We have no NINO but global temps and sst's are very warm for not having one.

 

There is no indication of cooling. If the warmer enso state was here now, global temps would be at record levels.  This can not be without a positive energy imbalance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are several assumptions without any basis in this above post.