NortheastPAWx Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 How have winds been out your way today? Here in W-B, it felt like late fall with the wind and temps staggering in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 May is still running slightly above average, however tomorrow and Tuesday will help bring the temperatures back to average for most of PA. However, after the next few days, I see warmth returning and sticking around for the rest of the month, so I believe the month will finish above average. Even after the rain we received over the last 4 days, totals are still running deficits. The spring in general has been drier than average, so I'm wondering how much of an affect will that have on summer temperatures this year. I'm going to try and have my summer forecast out by the end of this week for PA, and I would like to hear some feedback! As of right now, I'm leaning towards and average to slightly above average summer for the region. The main reasons for this is because I'm following the trend over the last 4 summers with big -NAO patterns, mainly due to the influences of the Greenland albedo response and arctic amplification. I'm also basing the warmer prediction on the dryness of our spring this year, as the soil moisture content is rather dry, and will have less transpiration cooling effect it otherwise would this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 May is still running slightly above average, however tomorrow and Tuesday will help bring the temperatures back to average for most of PA. However, after the next few days, I see warmth returning and sticking around for the rest of the month, so I believe the month will finish above average. Even after the rain we received over the last 4 days, totals are still running deficits. The spring in general has been drier than average, so I'm wondering how much of an affect will that have on summer temperatures this year. I'm going to try and have my summer forecast out by the end of this week for PA, and I would like to hear some feedback! As of right now, I'm leaning towards and average to slightly above average summer for the region. The main reasons for this is because I'm following the trend over the last 4 summers with big -NAO patterns, mainly due to the influences of the Greenland albedo response and arctic amplification. I'm also basing the warmer prediction on the dryness of our spring this year, as the soil moisture content is rather dry, and will have less transpiration cooling effect it otherwise would this time of year. The warmer summers in the Northeast tended to have blocking/-NAO patterns in May, which we haven't seen so far. If you look at bluewave's research in the NYC thread, the start to this May looks more like the prelude to a cooler Northeast summer. However, the sudden cooling in the ENSO regions may throw a wrench in things, as developing La Niñas (which models still don't show despite temporary cooling/upwelling) do produce warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast during summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Snow flurries here, 40.1 degrees. Second latest I've witnessed snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 NWS PICTURE A mid-May taste of winter at Bradford High School (McKean Co / NW PA) - with a fresh coating of snow on the ground. Passing snow showers up in Wysox and Flurries in Waterville also reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 Just got back to Centre County after traveling to Towanda for work. Saw some light snow and graupel north of Williamsport this morning, and there were on and off snow showers in Wysox/Towanda all day. Hit a heavier snow shower on 220 in Sullivan co. Actually coated the ground up at 2000'. Latest I've ever seen snow in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Another year another very rare late season bout with the white stuff. Off the top of my head I can think of at least 4 winters since 2007. 2007 (May flakes) , 2010 (May flakes) , 2012 (late April snowstorm), and now this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Another year another very rare late season bout with the white stuff. Off the top of my head I can think of at least 4 winters since 2007. 2007 (May flakes) , 2010 (May flakes) , 2012 (late April snowstorm), and now this year. Just got back to Centre County after traveling to Towanda for work. Saw some light snow and graupel north of Williamsport this morning, and there were on and off snow showers in Wysox/Towanda all day. Hit a heavier snow shower on 220 in Sullivan co. Actually coated the ground up at 2000'. Latest I've ever seen snow in PA. Forgot one notable one: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/may-snow-in-pen-1/15837 I received .6 that day, latest I've seen accumulating snow. Latest I've seen flakes was later that May, 5/20, observed mangled flakes (but def flakes and not graupel) during the morning on PSU campus during a convective snow shower. BTW that event stomped into the ground the idea that warm ground precludes snow accumulation on ROADS, if you note in that post the comment about slush on the roads. The roads were slushy on Skytop and since they got about 2-4 inches on Pine Grove Mountain had to bring out a plow. It was early morning but nonetheless, snow accumulated on roads on May 12. Maybe May snowflakes in PA is more common than one thinks? BTW my low this am was 26.9. Probably last freeze for the year. Hoping my pear tree made it okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Forgot one notable one: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/may-snow-in-pen-1/15837 I received .6 that day, latest I've seen accumulating snow. Latest I've seen flakes was later that May, 5/20, observed mangled flakes (but def flakes and not graupel) during the morning on PSU campus during a convective snow shower. BTW that event stomped into the ground the idea that warm ground precludes snow accumulation on ROADS, if you note in that post the comment about slush on the roads. The roads were slushy on Skytop and since they got about 2-4 inches on Pine Grove Mountain had to bring out a plow. It was early morning but nonetheless, snow accumulated on roads on May 12. Maybe May snowflakes in PA is more common than one thinks? BTW my low this am was 26.9. Probably last freeze for the year. Hoping my pear tree made it okay. Ahh actually 2008 was the year I was thinking of, not 2007. That still makes it something like 4 out of the last 6 springs. May flakes certainly have been more common as of late that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 interesting discussion from SPC earlier regarding severe potential for Wednesday... ...ERN OH/PA/NRN WV EWD TO NJ/DE... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION NEAR/S OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN OH/NY/PA AND EVENTUALLY INTO NJ/MD/DE AND NRN PARTS OF WV/VA. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ACTUAL DESTABILIZATION WHICH WILL OCCUR REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO UNREALISTICALLY DEVELOP/EXPAND AN AREA OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE MIDWEST DAY 1 -- AND IT IS THIS MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EWD DAY 2 THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THE PRE-FRONTAL CAPE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. WITH SPRING GREEN-UP 3-4 WEEKS SLOW PER SATELLITE-DERIVED GREENNESS DATA...IT IS BELIEVED THAT BOUNDARY LAYER EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE MODELS IS EXCESSIVELY HIGH -- THUS RESULTING IN THE DRASTIC IN-SITU MOISTENING OVER THE MIDWEST DAY 1. GIVEN THIS...EXPECT MODEL INDICATIONS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE OVERDONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WHILE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...AND WHILE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR INVOF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ATTM WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND. UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS ONCE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL CAN BE MORE ADEQUATELY ASCERTAINED. Looking at model data vs current data for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio... models are indeed forecasting dew point temperatures to be roughly 5-10 degrees higher than they actually are... therefore while GFS and NAM are predicting dew point temperatures to jump into the upper 50s to low 60s for MDT I believe low 50s to maybe mid 50s is more reasonable for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Ahh actually 2008 was the year I was thinking of, not 2007. That still makes it something like 4 out of the last 6 springs. May flakes certainly have been more common as of late that's for sure. One thing that stuck in my mind was a coworker, who lives up on Pine Grove Mountain, showed me a picture of her hostas and they looked like a grizzly bear sat on them. They got like 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Looking at model data vs current data for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio... models are indeed forecasting dew point temperatures to be roughly 5-10 degrees higher than they actually are... therefore while GFS and NAM are predicting dew point temperatures to jump into the upper 50s to low 60s for MDT I believe low 50s to maybe mid 50s is more reasonable for Wednesday. Yeah, I saw that. Good detailed discussion. Speaking of low dews, appears like the stuff on the radar is evaporating before reaching the ground. BTW the radar looks like a mid-January clipper is dropping SE across the state, lol. Looks like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Sioux City Iowa was at 104 F at 1pm... 1 degree off of May record... dew point temp at 42! Looks as if they fell to 103 F at the 2pm reading with 28mph winds gusting to 37mph... crazy... major fire weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Well ain't this a b**ch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 And now we're 10 degrees warmer than the 1pm reading. Feels about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Was just getting ready to do the grass, I would get hit with the only thunderstorm that managed to fire up so far in the whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted May 15, 2013 Author Share Posted May 15, 2013 And now we're 10 degrees warmer than the 1pm reading. Feels about right. Yeah we've climbed to 84 here in Bellefonte. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 It got hot quick today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 It got hot quick today. We got to 81 here. Nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 The Euro is extremely wet after the weekend and has a pretty nasty little shot of what appears to be cutoff low chill at the end. Drops the ol' 0 line south of PA twice during Memorial Day weekend. GFS is similar but not as extreme. What appears more likely is a very wet time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 Warmer than I was expecting today, currently 89° here. Friday and Saturday are going to feel awfully chilly after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Warmer than I was expecting today, currently 89° here. Friday and Saturday are going to feel awfully chilly after this. My work friend was talking about setting up his pool for the weekend...I felt bad when I told him he probably won't want to use it this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Warmer than I was expecting today, currently 89° here. Friday and Saturday are going to feel awfully chilly after this. For UNV ****ing Euro has 53 degrees at 2 pm Friday. A toasty 59 2 pm Saturday and Sunday and then really brings the torch with a sweltering 67 at 2 pm Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 For UNV ****ing Euro has 53 degrees at 2 pm Friday. A toasty 59 2 pm Saturday and Sunday and then really brings the torch with a sweltering 67 at 2 pm Memorial Day. i hope its way wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 DP near 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Had to turn on the a/c. Going to Boston this weekend, will be wearing a heavy coat at Fenway. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 not 100% certain but it looks like Harrisburg tied a record warmest low for May 22 this morning at a frigid 69 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Severe probs have been increased and pushed SE to include much of our area at the 13z update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Severe probs have been increased and pushed SE to include much of our area at the 13z update Screen Shot 2013-05-22 at 9.10.55 AM.png This has potential for quite a week of weather up here. Severe, summer humidity and what looks to me like higher elevation frozen precip late Friday, especially on the Euro. Wild stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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