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Central PA - Onward Into Summer 2013


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as I continue to slowly build my Harrisburg climo database... been seeing an interesting trend as i get deeper and deeper into data each of the past few months... a lot of the "climate change" or "global warming" talk is based on the average temperatures... not sure many have actually looked at trends in average highs and average lows... average highs have barely budged but average lows have climbed 3-4 degrees F each month... wonder how much increased development around locations of where the data is recorded (mostly airport) is leading to more of an urban heat island effect in vicinity of the weather stations to keep overnight temperatures a little warmer than they used to be?...

 

 

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Can you translate that to English? :)

The 00z NAM was (likely) over-amplified with a deepening low pressure system over Pennsylvania. The result was very impressive directional and speed shear, which would have indicated an elevated risk of tornadoes.

 

The latest 12z NAM and GFS are not as impressive, although the severe setup still bears watching from the Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region.

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The 00z NAM was (likely) over-amplified with a deepening low pressure system over Pennsylvania. The result was very impressive directional and speed shear, which would have indicated an elevated risk of tornadoes.

 

The latest 12z NAM and GFS are not as impressive, although the severe setup still bears watching from the Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region.

 Thank you! 

Guys, just remember this heading into winter.  "In EURO we trust, in NAM we bust."  Perfect example, was March 5th - 7th of 2013.

Winter? What's that?
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Possible MCS tonight/tomorrow morning.

 

THE NEXT BEST FORCING MECH AND TRIGGER
DOES NOT SEEM TO COME AROUND UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM
MCV OVER MI IS FCST TO DEVELOP/RE-INTENSIFY AS NIGHT FALLS. GFS
SEEMS TO BE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN NAM WITH THE TRACK OF THE
CONVECTION AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHIELD. SREF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY
TO THE WEST. AS WITH ALL THESE MESOSCALE SYSTEMS...THE
TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT ARE VERY TENUOUS AND TYPICALLY POORLY FCST
BY THE MDLS...EVEN BY THE SUB-20KM GRID MDLS...DUE TO THE MANY
SOURCES OF ERROR AND DIFFERENT CONV PARAM SCHEMES.

 

f18.gif

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