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Central PA - Onward Into Summer 2013


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SPC has increased tornado threat to 5% and wind threat to 15% to now include Harrisburg, York, Lancaster south to South Carolina

There's a bit more clearing than I anticipated.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few wind reports and sporadic urban/poor drainage flooding spots this evening with the line.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN VA AND MD INCLUDING DC/BWI
   METRO AREA INTO SERN PA
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 191727Z - 191830Z
  
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
  
   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-19Z OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND SPREAD ENEWD
   ACROSS VA/MD AND POSSIBLY INTO SERN PA THIS AFTERNOON.  ENVIRONMENT
   IS CONDUCIVE FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT.  TORNADO
   WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED FOR ISSUANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
  
   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
   BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
   RESULTING IN SURFACE HEATING/WARMING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION WHILE STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS TSTMS
   THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ADVANCE INTO THE
   DISCUSSION AREA WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  STRENGTHENING DEEP
   LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME
   ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES.
  
   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 04/19/2013
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
  
   LAT...LON   36608035 39697814 40217644 40037557 38937608 37667645
               36537712 36608035
 

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