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Central PA - Onward Into Summer 2013


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showing these totals as a longer duration event but generally 1.5"-2.5" in 18 to 24 hours... just like Monday could see a brief heavy down pour at times

even though they say were short by about 3", i had puddles in my yard Monday and thats rare.

 

Here is the latest from Pennlive: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/06/violent_thunderstorms_possible.html#incart_m-rpt-1

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There is literally disappointment that it may not be as bad as previously thought in the Mid Atlantic thread. I guess the models are trending away from a major event.

 

I always feel, that with severe weather, this should be considered a good thing...

 

How big of a Weenie do you have to be to want a Tornado to hit your house, or a 120MPH macro burst to rip half your roof off?

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LOL..the "High Risk" has been a bust in the Midwest. I'm calling a normal rain for everyone reading this, and maybe a SVR storm down around Neffsville's neck of the woods.

 

I see that you think everything will bust, whether it is a severe event or winter storm. With your track record from the winter, you will probably get softball size hail, and an F3 tornado in Williamsport  :weenie:

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LOL..the "High Risk" has been a bust in the Midwest. I'm calling a normal rain for everyone reading this, and maybe a SVR storm down around Neffsville's neck of the woods.

 

It isn't really over yet in the midwest, and they've had several tornadoes. High risk doesn't mean high destruction.

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LOL..the "High Risk" has been a bust in the Midwest. I'm calling a normal rain for everyone reading this, and maybe a SVR storm down around Neffsville's neck of the woods.

Wouldn't call it bust out there. I'm on NWS chat monitoring the EM/NWS feeds and they are clogged with reports so give it a few hours for it to show up on the SPC report website.

EDIT:  Total report number just went from 40 to 102. Probably top 300 by morning tomorrow.

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Add NBC Nightly to the list - Lester Holt started the broadcast with "nation on high alert".

This report will now give clearance for NBC to bring on scientists and Al Gore in the near future. They can say to them "What is the deal with all of this violent and damaging weather?" Then the can go on and on about "Climate Change" and something needs to be done.

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6 of top 9 stories on pennlive are impending-storm-related. Things like,"Red Cross here to help after destructive storms", "Storms to being destructive winds," etc.

Stories end with this gem: "A flood watch will go into effect at 2 a.m. Thursday, the NWS said. High winds also could form tornados in and around Harrisburg, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C."

It's like no one has seen severe wx. It's fundamentally stupid.

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6 of top 9 stories on pennlive are impending-storm-related. Things like,"Red Cross here to help after destructive storms", "Storms to being destructive winds," etc.

Stories end with this gem: "A flood watch will go into effect at 2 a.m. Thursday, the NWS said. High winds also could form tornados in and around Harrisburg, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C."

It's like no one has seen severe wx. It's fundamentally stupid.

 

I heard that with the massive flooding, it will create an inland sea, and there will be hurricane watches issued from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg.

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6 of top 9 stories on pennlive are impending-storm-related. Things like,"Red Cross here to help after destructive storms", "Storms to being destructive winds," etc.

Stories end with this gem: "A flood watch will go into effect at 2 a.m. Thursday, the NWS said. High winds also could form tornados in and around Harrisburg, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C."

It's like no one has seen severe wx. It's fundamentally stupid.

 

Ratings. That's all there is to it.

 

Besides, many people just don't have a fundamental grasp on weather and patterns relating to severe weather like you guys in this forum do. They solely rely on their meteorologist or "Local on the 8's" via TWC. I had to tone my crew down this evening and made it a mission to proof-read all wx-related scripts to make sure the hype train doesn't leave the station. 

 

I think this is a threat for folks living south of the turnpike in terms of severe weather. North of that line, get ready for the rains. 

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CTP's discussion tonight I found very good.

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

1003 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 12 2013

Synopsis...

surface low over the Midwest will track eastward across Pennsylvania

on Thursday. A cold front will dive southeast across the state

late Friday...followed by a large high pressure system for Saturday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...

warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of approaching low over the Midwest has

produced a few -shra across central PA early this evening.

Developing convection riding eastward along quasi-stationary boundary

over Ohio Valley is of the most immediate concern for our SW

counties. Although all model data indicates greatest instability

will remain SW of our County Warning Area...latest radar trends and rap simulated

radar suggest our S tier counties could be affected by strong

thunderstorms and rain later tonight...as strengthening ll jet lifts into the

area...supplying moisture/instability. 18z nampara...which is

capturing placement of upstream convection well...suggests first

batch of convection will clip our S counties between 04z-10z.

Although convection may rob moisture feed for a while

tonight...keeping most of central PA dry...bulk of model data

continues to indicate arrival of ll jet and plume of anomalous

precipitable waters will produce a band of moderate to heavy rain north of warm

front over central/northern PA late tonight.

What seems certain is that the system will be unseasonably

vigorous. It has all the look and feel of a winter system with a

strong coupled upper jet and potent low level jet that surges

Summer time heat and humidity northeast into the forecast area.

Flood Watch continues across the entire forecast area...as we

think the risk of at least localized downpours causing problems

looks reasonable. Some of the latest guidance arguing against the

type of widespread numbers needed for flooding include the

sref/gefs...confining the heaviest rainfall of near 2 inches

across the PA/New York border with mean quantitative precipitation forecast of only around 1 inch further

south. However with models notoriously bad at handling convection

and recent soaking rains...we thought the threat warranted the

watch.

&&

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/...

the surface low is forecast to track through south/central PA during

the day tomorrow with a rapid surge in precipitable waters ...cape and low level

shear expected into the area. Conditions have the potential to

change rapidly as we transition from a quasi-linear convective

threat possibly into a supercell threat if the surface low can manage

to track through central PA...as bulk of model data suggest. Best

combination of shear and instability comes together over the lower

susq valley on Thursday...with sref/gefs convective available potential energy near 1500 j/kg and

strong 0-1km and deep layer shear supportive of supercells.

Although ensemble mean quantitative precipitation forecast appears to fall short of ffg...some

oper runs suggest higher localized totals and flooding still

possible. Marfc numbers indicate the area can handle a widespread

1-2 inches over a 12-24 hour period. However...with the potential

for the rain to come in short intense bursts...significant

problems could develop quickly in typically flood prone areas.

The severe threat will as usual be handled in the very short term and addressed as it possibly develops Thursday. Exactly where the low tr

aeate the threat for rotating storms.

$$

Synopsis...Fitzgerald/la corte

near term...Fitzgerald

short term...Fitzgerald/la corte

long term...gartner

aviation...la corte

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