Santa Clause Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I agree with Eskimo. The rain sounds about perfect for the yard!!! Not sure the Flood Watches other than some areas that got raked Monday...our small stream is back below normal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 showing these totals as a longer duration event but generally 1.5"-2.5" in 18 to 24 hours... just like Monday could see a brief heavy down pour at times even though they say were short by about 3", i had puddles in my yard Monday and thats rare. Here is the latest from Pennlive: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/06/violent_thunderstorms_possible.html#incart_m-rpt-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Current top headline across pennlive.com: AccuWeather: 'Greatest tornado concern' taking aim in Harrisburg area, southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Hahaha hypesters. Harrisburg is out of the tornado threat and if any derecho happens tonight it will miss PA to the south as it will ride south along boundary into WVA and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 My neighbor just unloaded wood to put over windows. "This storm wil rip our houses apart," he said. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 My neighbor just unloaded wood to put over windows. "This storm wil rip our houses apart," he said. Ugh. My parents texted me yesterday saying "100mph winds tomorrow! It's called a derecho weather pattern!" I want to know what media outlets are putting this out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There is literally disappointment that it may not be as bad as previously thought in the Mid Atlantic thread. I guess the models are trending away from a major event. I always feel, that with severe weather, this should be considered a good thing... How big of a Weenie do you have to be to want a Tornado to hit your house, or a 120MPH macro burst to rip half your roof off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 My parents texted me yesterday saying "100mph winds tomorrow! It's called a derecho weather pattern!" I want to know what media outlets are putting this out there? TWCpennlive.com Radio stations here CNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GFS goes down to <0.5" precip for C PA...rofl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 TWC pennlive.com Radio stations here CNN Really??? I thought it was going to be some small local outlet. My goodness, that is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Really??? I thought it was going to be some small local outlet. My goodness, that is stupid. even local stations are hyping it. Such as KDKA http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2013/06/11/derecho-weather-pattern-could-mean-severe-weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Really??? I thought it was going to be some small local outlet. My goodness, that is stupid. Add NBC Nightly to the list - Lester Holt started the broadcast with "nation on high alert". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 We pick up our new car tomorrow afternoon, I'm al for a light rain and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LOL..the "High Risk" has been a bust in the Midwest. I'm calling a normal rain for everyone reading this, and maybe a SVR storm down around Neffsville's neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LOL..the "High Risk" has been a bust in the Midwest. I'm calling a normal rain for everyone reading this, and maybe a SVR storm down around Neffsville's neck of the woods. I see that you think everything will bust, whether it is a severe event or winter storm. With your track record from the winter, you will probably get softball size hail, and an F3 tornado in Williamsport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LMAO...this has bust written ALL over it. Godspeed to New York's southern neighbors. You all will be in my thoughts and prayers....I will always remember PA as it was before 6-13-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LOL..the "High Risk" has been a bust in the Midwest. I'm calling a normal rain for everyone reading this, and maybe a SVR storm down around Neffsville's neck of the woods. It isn't really over yet in the midwest, and they've had several tornadoes. High risk doesn't mean high destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 No, I guess I am being facetious with the people in Mid Atl forum thinking no storm damage and or destructive winds is a bad thing. I will take the rain and leave that stuff for our southern neighbors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 LOL..the "High Risk" has been a bust in the Midwest. I'm calling a normal rain for everyone reading this, and maybe a SVR storm down around Neffsville's neck of the woods. Wouldn't call it bust out there. I'm on NWS chat monitoring the EM/NWS feeds and they are clogged with reports so give it a few hours for it to show up on the SPC report website. EDIT: Total report number just went from 40 to 102. Probably top 300 by morning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Add NBC Nightly to the list - Lester Holt started the broadcast with "nation on high alert". This report will now give clearance for NBC to bring on scientists and Al Gore in the near future. They can say to them "What is the deal with all of this violent and damaging weather?" Then the can go on and on about "Climate Change" and something needs to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 6 of top 9 stories on pennlive are impending-storm-related. Things like,"Red Cross here to help after destructive storms", "Storms to being destructive winds," etc. Stories end with this gem: "A flood watch will go into effect at 2 a.m. Thursday, the NWS said. High winds also could form tornados in and around Harrisburg, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C." It's like no one has seen severe wx. It's fundamentally stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 6 of top 9 stories on pennlive are impending-storm-related. Things like,"Red Cross here to help after destructive storms", "Storms to being destructive winds," etc. Stories end with this gem: "A flood watch will go into effect at 2 a.m. Thursday, the NWS said. High winds also could form tornados in and around Harrisburg, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C." It's like no one has seen severe wx. It's fundamentally stupid. I heard that with the massive flooding, it will create an inland sea, and there will be hurricane watches issued from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 6 of top 9 stories on pennlive are impending-storm-related. Things like,"Red Cross here to help after destructive storms", "Storms to being destructive winds," etc. Stories end with this gem: "A flood watch will go into effect at 2 a.m. Thursday, the NWS said. High winds also could form tornados in and around Harrisburg, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C." It's like no one has seen severe wx. It's fundamentally stupid. Ratings. That's all there is to it. Besides, many people just don't have a fundamental grasp on weather and patterns relating to severe weather like you guys in this forum do. They solely rely on their meteorologist or "Local on the 8's" via TWC. I had to tone my crew down this evening and made it a mission to proof-read all wx-related scripts to make sure the hype train doesn't leave the station. I think this is a threat for folks living south of the turnpike in terms of severe weather. North of that line, get ready for the rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well...SREF comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 CTP's discussion tonight I found very good. Area forecast discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1003 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 12 2013 Synopsis... surface low over the Midwest will track eastward across Pennsylvania on Thursday. A cold front will dive southeast across the state late Friday...followed by a large high pressure system for Saturday. && Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of approaching low over the Midwest has produced a few -shra across central PA early this evening. Developing convection riding eastward along quasi-stationary boundary over Ohio Valley is of the most immediate concern for our SW counties. Although all model data indicates greatest instability will remain SW of our County Warning Area...latest radar trends and rap simulated radar suggest our S tier counties could be affected by strong thunderstorms and rain later tonight...as strengthening ll jet lifts into the area...supplying moisture/instability. 18z nampara...which is capturing placement of upstream convection well...suggests first batch of convection will clip our S counties between 04z-10z. Although convection may rob moisture feed for a while tonight...keeping most of central PA dry...bulk of model data continues to indicate arrival of ll jet and plume of anomalous precipitable waters will produce a band of moderate to heavy rain north of warm front over central/northern PA late tonight. What seems certain is that the system will be unseasonably vigorous. It has all the look and feel of a winter system with a strong coupled upper jet and potent low level jet that surges Summer time heat and humidity northeast into the forecast area. Flood Watch continues across the entire forecast area...as we think the risk of at least localized downpours causing problems looks reasonable. Some of the latest guidance arguing against the type of widespread numbers needed for flooding include the sref/gefs...confining the heaviest rainfall of near 2 inches across the PA/New York border with mean quantitative precipitation forecast of only around 1 inch further south. However with models notoriously bad at handling convection and recent soaking rains...we thought the threat warranted the watch. && Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/... the surface low is forecast to track through south/central PA during the day tomorrow with a rapid surge in precipitable waters ...cape and low level shear expected into the area. Conditions have the potential to change rapidly as we transition from a quasi-linear convective threat possibly into a supercell threat if the surface low can manage to track through central PA...as bulk of model data suggest. Best combination of shear and instability comes together over the lower susq valley on Thursday...with sref/gefs convective available potential energy near 1500 j/kg and strong 0-1km and deep layer shear supportive of supercells. Although ensemble mean quantitative precipitation forecast appears to fall short of ffg...some oper runs suggest higher localized totals and flooding still possible. Marfc numbers indicate the area can handle a widespread 1-2 inches over a 12-24 hour period. However...with the potential for the rain to come in short intense bursts...significant problems could develop quickly in typically flood prone areas. The severe threat will as usual be handled in the very short term and addressed as it possibly develops Thursday. Exactly where the low tr aeate the threat for rotating storms. $$ Synopsis...Fitzgerald/la corte near term...Fitzgerald short term...Fitzgerald/la corte long term...gartner aviation...la corte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Torrential rain here right now with some close lightning strikes earlier. Not much in the way of wind, but I'm sure up out of the hole things were gustier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 that little batch that went through at 4am, sat me straight up out of bed. Looks like round 2 is heading right for us now, looks like its in Western Cumberland and Franklin now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Amazing number of cloud to ground strikes. Saw one cell that produce 11 CGs in just 2 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 that little batch that went through at 4am, sat me straight up out of bed. Looks like round 2 is heading right for us now, looks like its in Western Cumberland and Franklin now.Honest to god, that lightning was top 10 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 it is almost as black as night out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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