Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[OHweather]

In snow news, I could see those of you mainly east of Cleveland and up a bit in elevation seeing an inch or so of snow Thursday night as a shortwave tries to help trigger some lake effect. Relatively short duration event with marginal temps. The models are interesting for the middle of next week but I suspect they are a bit too amplified with the shortwave that would possibly bring the goods to Ohio Tuesday-Wednesday...we'll see though.

[Trent]

In snow news, I could see those of you mainly east of Cleveland and up a bit in elevation seeing an inch or so of snow Thursday night as a shortwave tries to help trigger some lake effect. Relatively short duration event with marginal temps. The models are interesting for the middle of next week but I suspect they are a bit too amplified with the shortwave that would possibly bring the goods to Ohio Tuesday-Wednesday...we'll see though.

I'm liking the chances for a few inches to be squeezed out tonight to the east. Hi res models are all indicating that short window of opportunity before sunrise.

Next Tuesday through Thursday looks very interesting.

[OHweather]

I'm liking the chances for a few inches to be squeezed out tonight to the east. Hi res models are all indicating that short window of opportunity before sunrise.

Next Tuesday through Thursday looks very interesting.

I can't help but think the shortwave the models are trying to develop into a storm doesn't wrap up quick enough to give Ohio the goods...although I certainly wouldn't argue, as the models right now indicate I may even be in the "game" down here if that solution actually works out. Even without a storm, the GFS shows a pretty darn good northerly flow LES setup Tuesday into Tuesday night. With such steep lapse rates, high inversion and well aligned wind a Lake Huron band would be likely somewhere if this verifies close to reality. The odds of accumulating snow somewhere in NE OH seem to be increasing for next week. We'll see. I'll be home this weekend and it looks dry and cool, go figure.

 

[OHweather]

Thunder"snow" for the second time in 15 days in Cuyahoga County from what I've heard. Clear skies here, no need to worry about that.

[Trent]

Thunder"snow" for the second time in 15 days in Cuyahoga County from what I've heard. Clear skies here, no need to worry about that.

 

Technically you can say this is the 3rd or 4th day this season with thundersnow. There was thundersnow on the evening of the 23rd, and then again in the morning and afternoon on the 24th of October. Then last night which occurred right at midnight, encompassing two days for some spots. It was cool last night to see the visible lightning bolts accompanying the wintry mix of mostly graupel here near the shore.

 

Thundersnow is so common here nowadays; probably having better odds than seeing hail in a given year.

 

Too bad you'll be up here for the dry weekend. Euro is looking mighty interesting for next Tuesday-Thursday in the lake effect department again. Very nice LES signature with a Huron connection showing up. When a model is already spitting out close to 0.70" liquid equivalent 4-5 days away for lake effect/enhancement, that's might impressive.

[NEOH]

I was in Bratenahl last night and thundersnow started around 12am or so. Heavy graupel coating everything. Picked up a 1/2 inch or so in South Rusell... only on the grass and roof tops. Great start to the season so far.

 

Next week does look interesting. I can't remember that the last we had a northerly flow LES event.

[OHweather]

I was in Bratenahl last night and thundersnow started around 12am or so. Heavy graupel coating everything. Picked up a 1/2 inch or so in South Rusell... only on the grass and roof tops. Great start to the season so far.

Next week does look interesting. I can't remember that the last we had a northerly flow LES event.

The last two that I remember that produced warning criteria amounts are December 2010 (I want to say December 13-14, it was 5 days after the downtown snowband disaster) and February 2012...that was somewhere in the middle of the month on a Saturday...maybe February 11 off the top of my head. We'll see if we can add next week to that list or not.

[NEOH]

The last two that I remember that produced warning criteria amounts are December 2010 (I want to say December 13-14, it was 5 days after the downtown snowband disaster) and February 2012...that was somewhere in the middle of the month on a Saturday...maybe February 11 off the top of my head. We'll see if we can add next week to that list or not.

 

Your memory is much better than mine. Next week is still a long way out... but even with dry air pushing in from the north the added fetch from lake huron and the instabilty would make for one heck of band.

[dta1984]

Had about a 1/2"-1" on grassy surfaces this morning. Can't wait for next week. What areas do northerly flow events favor? Is that more central cuyh?

[OHweather]

Had about a 1/2"-1" on grassy surfaces this morning. Can't wait for next week. What areas do northerly flow events favor? Is that more central cuyh?

It really depends on how "northerly" the winds are. With a NNW or N flow the fetch is short so you usually either need terrain or a Lake Huron band to get good amounts, especially if the airmass is kind of dry which this upcoming airmass currently looks to be (although lake induced instability may be impressive).

 

With a NNW flow you usually get a Lake Huron band into the primary Snowbelt, and it can be quite heavy. Often times with a NNW flow there is another max farther west over southern Cuyahoga, NE Medina and portions of western Summit County where there is some higher terrain. If the wind is more out of a true northerly direction that can push any Lake Huron band into the Cleveland metro. Usually a due north wind gets it into downtown, although it depends some on the flow over Lake Huron as well.

 

Next week looks like a short window but with the instability being shown, if a Lake Huron band can get into Ohio I can't see why rates of 1-2" per hour wouldn't occur beneath it. Whether the winds shift and the band moves and gives a more widespread but lighter accumulation or if the band is more localized but dumps more would remain to be seen. Still a good 72 hours out. With the somewhat dry nature of the airmass next week I can't help but think amounts outside of any Lake Huron connection would be light/sub-advisory.

[dta1984]

Awesome, thanks for explaining Ohweather!

[Trent]

It really depends on how "northerly" the winds are. With a NNW or N flow the fetch is short so you usually either need terrain or a Lake Huron band to get good amounts, especially if the airmass is kind of dry which this upcoming airmass currently looks to be (although lake induced instability may be impressive).

 

With a NNW flow you usually get a Lake Huron band into the primary Snowbelt, and it can be quite heavy. Often times with a NNW flow there is another max farther west over southern Cuyahoga, NE Medina and portions of western Summit County where there is some higher terrain. If the wind is more out of a true northerly direction that can push any Lake Huron band into the Cleveland metro. Usually a due north wind gets it into downtown, although it depends some on the flow over Lake Huron as well.

 

Next week looks like a short window but with the instability being shown, if a Lake Huron band can get into Ohio I can't see why rates of 1-2" per hour wouldn't occur beneath it. Whether the winds shift and the band moves and gives a more widespread but lighter accumulation or if the band is more localized but dumps more would remain to be seen. Still a good 72 hours out. With the somewhat dry nature of the airmass next week I can't help but think amounts outside of any Lake Huron connection would be light/sub-advisory.

 

The past few winters it has seemed that anytime a Huron connection develops or is modeled, it's bad news for Cleveland and the eastern suburbs. With a NNW flow, it often seems that the Huron connection pushes the bands way east over eastern Ashtabula County and then in Erie and Crawford Counties, PA. Inevitably it's where the band develops over the Huron coast in Ontario that determines where the band will set up here in Ohio. These bands almost always have a curve to the southeast to them, so even with a typically good flow for most of us in Cuyahoga/Lake/Geauga, the bands end up even more east once the Huron connection is established.

 

We're starting to get into the range of the Hi-Res models, so it will be interesting to see what they do. Right now, I'm not feeling too confident for the 271 corridor.

[OHweather]

The past few winters it has seemed that anytime a Huron connection develops or is modeled, it's bad news for Cleveland and the eastern suburbs. With a NNW flow, it often seems that the Huron connection pushes the bands way east over eastern Ashtabula County and then in Erie and Crawford Counties, PA. Inevitably it's where the band develops over the Huron coast in Ontario that determines where the band will set up here in Ohio. These bands almost always have a curve to the southeast to them, so even with a typically good flow for most of us in Cuyahoga/Lake/Geauga, the bands end up even more east once the Huron connection is established.

 

We're starting to get into the range of the Hi-Res models, so it will be interesting to see what they do. Right now, I'm not feeling too confident for the 271 corridor.

We've certainly had a hard time getting Huron connections far enough west recently. I think what's interesting is with no significant surface low and high pressure building in so quickly we won't be in a true cyclonic flow by Tuesday morning which may limit how much the band curves to the SE as it hits Lake Erie and Ohio.

 

The models still don't quite get the wind to true N so I'm not sure if any band would make it into Cleveland, but the 12z NAM (4km and 12km) both show the band briefly getting west of Cleveland before they whiz it off to the east. It looks like the winds stabilize for a few hours Tuesday morning and afternoon before gradually gaining more and more of a westerly component, so if anyone sees decent snows it's Tuesday AM/early afternoon if a band can make it into Ohio and sit for a few hours.

With the short fetch I'm worried things will not be spectacular outside of any Huron bands, so this may well be nothing to write home about for Cleveland.

 

[Trent]

We'll see what later runs this afternoon do, but it's looking like any decent lake effect will probably avoid far eastern Cuyahoga County. I think somewhere in Ashtabula and Trumbull Counties will be the big winner with the Huron band. Most of the BUF mesoscale models keep things no farther west than about Chardon, and that's about as west as one of the bands makes it before sliding back east.

[NEOH]

We'll see what later runs this afternoon do, but it's looking like any decent lake effect will probably avoid far eastern Cuyahoga County. I think somewhere in Ashtabula and Trumbull Counties will be the big winner with the Huron band. Most of the BUF mesoscale models keep things no farther west than about Chardon, and that's about as west as one of the bands makes it before sliding back east.

 

The BUF models were pretty discouraging. What was odd is that they show virtually no synoptic snows... only precip from LES. But yeah, they all keep the main band well to the east. I'm pretty confident in at least an inch or two. Would be nice for the huron band to set-up further west.

[NEOH]

CLE issued a LES advisory. 1-3 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow. The winds don't come around to any more than 340 so I'm thinking the huron band (if it develops) will be further east as the meso models show. Ashtabula looks like a good spot right now.

[OHweather]

Just glancing on my phone I think CLE should have left Cuyahoga and Summit out of the advisory and bumped inland Ashtabula, along with possibly Geauga and northern Trumbull/Portage into a warning. With a somewhat dry airmass and short fetch I don't expect a ton off of L. Erie on its own, but I do think an intense Huron connection probably sets up. The winds may stabilize for a few hours tomorrow and that is when someone could see a quick 4-8" under any Huron connection.

[Trent]

Just glancing on my phone I think CLE should have left Cuyahoga and Summit out of the advisory and bumped inland Ashtabula, along with possibly Geauga and northern Trumbull/Portage into a warning. With a somewhat dry airmass and short fetch I don't expect a ton off of L. Erie on its own, but I do think an intense Huron connection probably sets up. The winds may stabilize for a few hours tomorrow and that is when someone could see a quick 4-8" under any Huron connection.

 

CLE issued a LES advisory. 1-3 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow. The winds don't come around to any more than 340 so I'm thinking the huron band (if it develops) will be further east as the meso models show. Ashtabula looks like a good spot right now.

 

Yeah, the latest 18z models from BUF show a pretty much non event for eastern Cuyahoga with things exploding as you get into central Geauga through Ashtabula Counties. They could get rocked if those bands set up like indicated. 

 

But with Lake Effect, there's always the element of surprise. Looks like folks to our west are getting a slushy inch or so from the cold front after it switches to snow, so we should at least get that, plus any extra that Lake Erie's moisture tosses in.

[OHweather]

I guess I'll post my "call me crazy" Facebook snowmap here this time, which will probably jinx things...

 

The airmass will be very cold with 850mb temps of -10 to -12C and 500mb temps of -30 to -32C, which supports extreme lake induced instability and possibly thunder with lake water temps in the 40’s (5-10C). The airmass will be a bit dry so I only expect light snow off of Lake Erie given the short fetch. The Lake Huron band has me very interested as with the extreme instability and fairly well aligned winds tomorrow it could be intense with rates of 1-2” per hour possible.

 

With the winds coming around to about 340 degrees by sunrise and not ever getting to true north the band should stay east of Cleveland but could clip extreme eastern Cuyahoga County for a time in the morning. The point of interest is the wind direction stabilizing for several hours tomorrow which may allow this band to sit or move very slowly and dump significant amounts of snow over the course of a few or several hours tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Given the flow and looking at some hi-res models the best bet for this occurring would be over the eastern 2/3rds of Geauga County into portions of inland Ashtabula. Some models show that happening farther west but I’m skeptical.

 

Tomorrow evening winds start veering more to the NW and W by Wednesday morning which gradually pushes the Huron band into PA (although it would likely affect the rest of Ashtabula/Trumbull Counties for at least a time). As the fetch increases over Lake Erie could see some re-invigoration of activity off of it tomorrow evening into the primary Snowbelt but with drier air/ridging building in it shouldn’t be spectacular. By Wednesday morning we are just down to flurries in the extreme NE.

 

 

Here is the KCLE wind profile from the 18z NAM:
 

 

[NEOH]

I guess I'll post my "call me crazy" Facebook snowmap here this time, which will probably jinx things...

 

The airmass will be very cold with 850mb temps of -10 to -12C and 500mb temps of -30 to -32C, which supports extreme lake induced instability and possibly thunder with lake water temps in the 40’s (5-10C). The airmass will be a bit dry so I only expect light snow off of Lake Erie given the short fetch. The Lake Huron band has me very interested as with the extreme instability and fairly well aligned winds tomorrow it could be intense with rates of 1-2” per hour possible.

 

With the winds coming around to about 340 degrees by sunrise and not ever getting to true north the band should stay east of Cleveland but could clip extreme eastern Cuyahoga County for a time in the morning. The point of interest is the wind direction stabilizing for several hours tomorrow which may allow this band to sit or move very slowly and dump significant amounts of snow over the course of a few or several hours tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Given the flow and looking at some hi-res models the best bet for this occurring would be over the eastern 2/3rds of Geauga County into portions of inland Ashtabula. Some models show that happening farther west but I’m skeptical.

 

Tomorrow evening winds start veering more to the NW and W by Wednesday morning which gradually pushes the Huron band into PA (although it would likely affect the rest of Ashtabula/Trumbull Counties for at least a time). As the fetch increases over Lake Erie could see some re-invigoration of activity off of it tomorrow evening into the primary Snowbelt but with drier air/ridging building in it shouldn’t be spectacular. By Wednesday morning we are just down to flurries in the extreme NE.

 

lake effect 11-12.png

 

Here is the KCLE wind profile from the 18z NAM:

 

NAM wind.png

Nice forecast. Lake temps over the central basin are in the mid 50's... So instability is ridiculous out east.

[OHweather]

Nice forecast. Lake temps over the central basin are in the mid 50's... So instability is ridiculous out east.

Thanks. Yeah, I don't think it's a question of IF a heavy band sets up, but where, along with does it stall. So in those regards there is still a fair amount of uncertainty. If the band does stall, look out wherever that happens. I should clarify that this doesn't include the light synoptic snow this evening, you could say it's any lake effect that falls after 6z/1AM.

[Trent]

Switched over to snow here on the west side about 20 minutes ago. Out east, traffic cams show ground covered in Mayfield Heights. Looking at the radar, this pre LES snow might be a bit more than anticipated. 

[NEOH]

Switched over to snow here on the west side about 20 minutes ago. Out east, traffic cams show ground covered in Mayfield Heights. Looking at the radar, this pre LES snow might be a bit more than anticipated.

Same here in bratenahl... Nothing on the ground but snow is falling. Amazing how different the weather is this close to the lake. It will be interesting to see the difference in snowfall from the lakeshore compared to south Russell.

[NEOH]

Thanks. Yeah, I don't think it's a question of IF a heavy band sets up, but where, along with does it stall. So in those regards there is still a fair amount of uncertainty. If the band does stall, look out wherever that happens. I should clarify that this doesn't include the light synoptic snow this evening, you could say it's any lake effect that falls after 6z/1AM.

Looking upstream I can imagine any location under the main band will get dumped on tonight/tomorrow while the wind direction is somewhat stable. Too bad it looks so far to the east.

[nwohweather]

Today is the 11th anniversary of the Veterans Day Outbreak of 2002. 20 tornadoes in Northern Ohio with 8 being F3 or stronger and the one in Van Wert an F4. Probably the most impressive day I've seen in my lifetime

[michsnowfreak]

Switched over to snow here on the west side about 20 minutes ago. Out east, traffic cams show ground covered in Mayfield Heights. Looking at the radar, this pre LES snow might be a bit more than anticipated. 

You have had THREE days with thundersnow this year?

[carumba]

Here in Chagrin Falls we've got moderate snow with about 1" on the ground so far. I'm about 2 mi south of CF village. Grass is covered but roads show no accumulation yet.

[dta1984]

Grass is covered in Newbury. Probably an inch or a little more. Starting to stick to a few spots on the driveway as well.

[OHweather]

So, upstream looks good as NE OH said. Luckily the winds will turn from the NW to NNW by morning so this will shift west some. How much is the question obviously. The three NAM based 0z BUF WRFs like the I-271 corridor into central Geauga County. Web cams show some snow on the highways up there. I'm still waiting down here, patiently. Sitting at 45 with drizzle.

 

 

[Trent]

You have had THREE days with thundersnow this year?

Yep.

 

The big lake effect event here on October 23-24th produced thundersnow the evening of the 23rd and then again in the morning and afternoon on 24th. Parts of Cuyahoga County got 8" with that.

 

Then there was another lake effect snow band on November 7th that produced lightning and thunder.