Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion


NEOH

Recommended Posts

It looks like the northern tier of Ohio will be cold, windy, and will get 0.5-1.0" of rain Saturday. The 1000-850 thicknesses are nearly low enough for freezing rain. I won't predict freezing rain though. Toledo will have 0C at 850mb, -2C at 925mb, and 3C at the surface. With this profile, snowflakes could be melting a couple of hundred feet from the ground. Yuck. Might as well just bring on the snow if you are going to have -2C at 925mb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Had it been a few degrees colder, this upcoming rain storm would have been a forecasting nightmare. Northeast Ohio has been riding the line between heavy rain and nothing at all. Latest trends have pushed the heaviest QPF just to our south, but still good enough for a 0.5-0.75" of rain.

Forecasters have it easy in these situations, you just have say it's going to rain. The public could care less whether it rains 0.4" or 1.00", but if it's 4" or 10" of snow, then it matters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at a couple of "wintry" days ahead. The mild up looks somewhat muted as compared to the western sections of this subforum. It's good to be east for a change. Hopefully we'll see the pattern change start to take shape on the models soon. DonS has had a hot hand so I'm riding his calls at this point. I wouldn't rule out a white christmas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Given that this is a cut-off low that is retrograding, with an extremely sharp cut-off from cold/moist to warmer mid-level air and drier air on the western edge, this isn't an easy forecast. BUT, I'll take the under on that CLE forecast.

 

The Euro was the first to pick up on the possible retrograde and snow back into Ohio with this low, and for a couple runs Sunday into yesterday showed up to 6" as far west as parts of Geauga County. The Euro and GFS now agree on possibly 6" in NW PA, maybe up to 4" in eastern Ashtabula, 1-3" for the rest of the Snowbelt and little to none once you hit Cleveland. The 12z hi-res NAM showed up to a foot in eastern Ashtabula, but that's an outlier.

 

This is a cut-off low drifting around with a sharp cut-off on the western edge from favorable synoptic moisture/lift (with cold enough temps for lake enhancement) to drier/warmer mid-levels, so there may be some changes, but I like the 12z GFS/Euro consensus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Given that this is a cut-off low that is retrograding, with an extremely sharp cut-off from cold/moist to warmer mid-level air and drier air on the western edge, this isn't an easy forecast. BUT, I'll take the under on that CLE forecast.

 

The Euro was the first to pick up on the possible retrograde and snow back into Ohio with this low, and for a couple runs Sunday into yesterday showed up to 6" as far west as parts of Geauga County. The Euro and GFS now agree on possibly 6" in NW PA, maybe up to 4" in eastern Ashtabula, 1-3" for the rest of the Snowbelt and little to none once you hit Cleveland. The 12z hi-res NAM showed up to a foot in eastern Ashtabula, but that's an outlier.

 

This is a cut-off low drifting around with a sharp cut-off on the western edge from favorable synoptic moisture/lift (with cold enough temps for lake enhancement) to drier/warmer mid-levels, so there may be some changes, but I like the 12z GFS/Euro consensus.

 

Looks like the snow will stay east of the area. CLE has advisories for NWPA. Off and on light snow today so it at least feels like winter feel out there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The incredible November has made this snowless start to December more manageable. But the lack of winter this month is starting to get to me.

This thread is at 48 pages. I think they like to restrict these to 30 pages. With this dull pattern, probably a good breaking point for a new thread this winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The incredible November has made this snowless start to December more manageable. But the lack of winter this month is starting to get to me.

This thread is at 48 pages. I think they like to restrict these to 30 pages. With this dull pattern, probably a good breaking point for a new thread this winter.

Start the new thread Trent and bring some good luck. Yes, November has made this start to December easier to take. Time to move on though... Positive trends on the horizon which is great to see. The "warmth" in Lake Erie is slowly bleeding out. Gotta get a favorable set up for les once the cold air arrives because the western basin won't last more than one or two cold shots.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...