Trent Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Good call with last night. Another white Thanksgiving with just under an inch here. Nice little band did set up for a brief bit last night before pushing to the east. Too bad these rates couldn't have lasted a few more hours. KCLE 271151Z 32010KT 4SM -SN FEW007 BKN013 OVC019 00/M01 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP196 4/001 SNINCR 1/1 P0009 60011 70011 T00001011 10006 20000 53014 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Ended up with right around an inch here too, seems to be the magic number for most of Cuyahoga County (and in my case extreme NE Summit). We'll see what tonight brings, the hi-res models aren't agreeing. Some show some lake MI activity staying completely south of the lakeshore with little response from Lake Erie, while others do actually show some decent snow showers over the Snowbelt this evening as the trough goes by. With a WNW wind this may be another secondary Snowbelt special depending on where any snow showers from Lake Michigan go. CLE going with a "quick" 1-4" this evening and mentioning a possible advisory, and BUF issued an advisory up to the PA boarder, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 27, 2014 Author Share Posted November 27, 2014 Picked up an inch so far. Looks great outside. Good call ohweather. We'll see what tonight brings. Lot's of activity on the other lakes which is good to see. The lighter winds will increase residence time which should compensate for any lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Radar looks great, lighting up over the lake with moisture from Lake Michigan also in play. Winds at CLE have gone more WSW so we should see strong convergence near the central and eastern lakeshore with a good band as the trough from MI drops south over the next few hours. I'm not sure how long the banding will last in any one spot though, and the window is pretty short for good snows. By the time we hit midnight we'll probably be down to lighter multi-bands in a NW flow. I think most of us should see 1-4" over the next several hours, with maybe a lucky someone seeing more if they get stuck under a band. Best accums will probably be inland with the winds becoming NW pretty quick behind the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 KCLE 280051Z 29006KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP247 SNINCR 2/2 P0010 T10171028 $ In between bands here, but that's 2" per hour at CLE under a good band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Considering that band didn't hit CLE until about 20-30 minutes into the hour that's closer to 3-4" rates per hour. Of course, I sit about a mile north of that. This might be one of the snowiest Thanksgivings on record for Cleveland. Edit: looks like this will be the second snowiest Thanksgiving on record for Cleveland, if this band persists a little bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Considering that band didn't hit CLE until about 20-30 minutes into the hour that's closer to 3-4" rates per hour. Of course, I sit about a mile north of that. This might be one of the snowiest Thanksgivings on record for Cleveland. CLE may end up with 6" on the day (including this morning's 1.1") if that band doesn't move for another hour, which is possible. I'm sitting at 1.3" on the day after a couple of bursts dropped a half inch through 7:00PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Now that I'm getting hit, I can see how CLE is pulling off those snow rates. I'm hoping this band can just sit for an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 KCLE 280151Z 30009KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M02/M03 A3025 RMK AO2 SLP252 SNINCR 3/5 P0015 T10171028 $ Incredible. So many holiday travelers getting caught off guard. Likely needs(ed) a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Wow! Incredable for CLE to pull off 5" in 2 hours from lake effect, and they might add another inch. It is absolutely ripping here, and a couple of lightning strikes have shown up under the band on radar scope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Congrats guys! I am out of town, but that band is looking very healthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 CLE had 0.07" more after the last hourly reading. Probably enough for another inch, will be interesting to see the daily total, perhaps 7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 What an intense band. Measured 4" on the deck. It's well South of here but there is more forming over the lake. Won't last long but fun nonetheless. What a November we've had. Roads are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 3.1" here between 8:25PM and 9:30PM, and still snowing. That brings the total (when including the half inch around 7PM and the 0.8" from this morning) to about 4.4" since 7AM. I'll get a better measurement once the snow stops, I know it's not proper to measure every hour or so and add those up, but just to get an idea. CLE sent an LSR for 7.0" in Hiram as of 9:30PM. Beachwood had 3.2" as of 7:00PM so may end up with close to 5" with what fell after. I'm guessing we'll get another 1-3" here as some more moderate bursts are flaring up behind the trough as NE OH said. Every lake effect event this month has overperformed in Cuyahoga County, and KCLE has gotten into good banding 3 times in the last two weeks. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Out of nowhere an inch of snow fell back at the relatives place just south of Toledo. Heavy snow for a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Here's what 6" of snow in 3 hours looks like in METAR form: KCLE 280251Z 32010G14KT 3SM -SN BR SCT017 BKN024 OVC037 M02/M03 A3026 RMK AO2 SLP256 SNINCR 1/6 P0010 60046 T10171033 53010 $KCLE 280241Z 31006KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR FEW017 FEW023 OVC029 M02/M04 A3026 RMK AO2 P0007 T10221039 $KCLE 280236Z 28005KT 4SM -SN BR OVC032 M02/M04 A3025 RMK AO2 P0007 T10221039 $KCLE 280223Z 28007KT 3SM -SN BR OVC017 M02/M04 A3025 RMK AO2 P0007 T10221039 $KCLE 280218Z 29010KT 1SM -SN BR OVC010 M02/M03 A3025 RMK AO2 P0007 T10221033 $KCLE 280151Z 30009KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M02/M03 A3025 RMK AO2 SLP252 SNINCR 3/5 P0015 T10171028 $KCLE 280051Z 29006KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP247 SNINCR 2/2 P0010 T10171028 $KCLE 280021Z 25009KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV008 M01/M03 A3024 RMK AO2 P0002 T10111028 $KCLE 280009Z COR 25010KT 3/4SM -SN BKN015 BKN026 OVC042 M01/M03 A3023 RMK AO2 P0001 T10111028 $KCLE 272358Z 26008KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW016 BKN021 OVC050 M01/M03 A3023 RMK AO2 P0000 T10111033 $KCLE 272351Z 26009KT 6SM -SN BR SCT018 BKN038 OVC050 M01/M03 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP245 P0002 60002 4/001 T10111033 10000 21011 51013 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 About 5" here since 8:25PM with one last mad burst about to come through. Maybe I'm overreacting because Athens hasn't seen jack yet this fall but wow, wow and wow at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 6.2" will be my 6 hour total from 6:30PM to 12:30AM. When counting the 0.8" I got this morning, that gives me a storm total of 7.0". Snow showers are still continuing so I may add a little more overnight. CLE's total for Thanksgiving is 7.0" per the climo report. This was a great short duration event. The lake effect this month is making me look like a conservative forecaster, but that's a good thing since most of us like the snow.Edit: 6.7" on the ground at 1AM. Had an icy couple tenths leftover from this morning before it started snowing again this evening. Since this is on the grass that probably explains why the 6.7" on the ground suggests a little more than 6.2" fell this evening (I tried to avoid it but the yard stick might have sunk into the grass a little bit)...so I feel like the evidence supports at least a 6" snow this evening. The 6.2" measurement came from my deck.And also, just so I remember what 3"+ per hour rates look like on radar...this was around 9:15PM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 19.4" at CLE this month, that's good enough for 4th snowiest November. What's kind of funny is that CLE was beating BUF for November snowfall briefly last night. CLE was 19.4" and BUF was at 19.3", it was still snowing at BUF after midnight, so they have since taken the lead again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 5.1" Imby. Nice short duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 0.2" more while I slept for a total of 7.2". There's a chance for some snow tonight with warm air advection occurring, I have my doubts but it would be nice if CLE could tack on a little bit more and make it an even 20" on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Quite a few of the high res BUF WRF showed that band last night pretty accurately and with QPF similar to what fell. It's nice to see CLE jackpot an event, with all the lowball measurements the past few years, good to see the official stats doing well this season. That likely warranted a warning last night. I'm In the camp where if it's snowing at 3"+ per hour for more than an hour, then a warning is completely justified, and regardless 6"+ verified over at least 3 counties. Fortunately last night was probably one of the least impactful in terms of travel as most were already at their holiday destination and evening traffic volume was probably a fraction of a typical evening. However, I'm sure there were quite a few who were returning home from Thanksgiving dinner that were completely caught off guard. I only had 2" as I sat about a mile from the heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I forgot how quickly lake effect settles. Was down to about 3" on the ground last night with highs yesterday near 30 and mostly cloudy skies. Today, temps above 40 and some sun are really doing a number on the snow pack. Although some of them had the band too far southwest, the BUF WRF's performed admirably I agree, as a couple of them showed up to half an inch of QPF falling in 3 hours Thursday evening under the banding west and south of Cleveland. Between the NMM and ARW, one of the 12z Thursday runs (I forget which model) also had up to half an inch of QPF in southern Cuyahoga. The pattern looks pretty dull for a while, which should keep the lake open for the next arctic outbreak, whenever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 I forgot how quickly lake effect settles. Was down to about 3" on the ground last night with highs yesterday near 30 and mostly cloudy skies. Today, temps above 40 and some sun are really doing a number on the snow pack. Although some of them had the band too far southwest, the BUF WRF's performed admirably I agree, as a couple of them showed up to half an inch of QPF falling in 3 hours Thursday evening under the banding west and south of Cleveland. Between the NMM and ARW, one of the 12z Thursday runs (I forget which model) also had up to half an inch of QPF in southern Cuyahoga. The pattern looks pretty dull for a while, which should keep the lake open for the next arctic outbreak, whenever that is. The ground is surprisingly warm... every snow we've had has settled quickly despite the cold temps. Excellent November though... 28.5 for the month IMBY. Seems like snow has been on the ground more often that not. Long range looks awful...I'm sure things will change but a week or so of warmer weather would help with lake temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Watch the talk about the settling of the LES. You'll have ECer's calling it "fake snow" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Even if CLE doesn't see a flurry this December, we'll still start 2015 with above normal snowfall. Top ten wettest year still looking pretty good. CLE needs about 2.4" of liquid equivalent this month to crack that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Impressive temp departure for November of -6.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Trying to see the glass half full... The impending warm up will keep lake temps stable until the pattern changes. Hopefully we can get a favorable set-up for les when the pattern does change. We had a great November snowfall wise so no complaints about the warm up. We rarely have wall to wall cold temps so this is expected. Some crazy posts on the board about a couple weeks of mild weather in early December. Unless some of the most respected mets are wrong.... The cold will be back in force before we know it. Just have to get through the mild stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I have to agree. We had a great Nov with almost 30" already. If Nov had been lackluster, then maybe I'd be concerned. Lets let the lake warm and get primed for the next arctic spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Saturday is looking like a widespread deluge, barring any major model shifts, CLE will inch even closer to another top 10 wettest year. Winter is off to a much better start than last year. Personally, I'd prefer a roller coaster winter as it keeps the lakes active and snow chances higher. Last winter was perpetual 2-4" snows in a locked in cold pattern, not so exciting for big snows or LES, despite racking up a very snowy winter in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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