OHweather Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Wonder if we will see a nice flare-up this afternoon. Looks like additional moisture is pushing in from the NW. Still snowing lightly in Chagrin with the occasional heavy burst. 480 corridor locked in the heavy band right now.We might get a little pre-seeding from Lake MI by mid-afternoon and the RAP suggests perhaps slightly better moisture moving in. Inversions don't fall off much until late tonight and there's a surface trough along the lakeshore that the models aren't handling well IMO so I'd expect moderate to heavy snow to continue under any bands for a while longer. Sometimes it seems like a chore to get these bands going (see the winters of 11-12, 12-13 and 13-14), but once they get going they tend to be stubborn, especially when there isn't some large scale feature like a shortwave to change the winds and disrupt them. Still kicking myself for my conservative call two days ago, but at least this evens out my overly aggressive calls over the years all at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I've now got 10" measured in several spots on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 At 10 AM Friday, I measured 5 inchs near Lakewood Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 We might get a little pre-seeding from Lake MI by mid-afternoon and the RAP suggests perhaps slightly better moisture moving in. Inversions don't fall off much until late tonight and there's a surface trough along the lakeshore that the models aren't handling well IMO so I'd expect moderate to heavy snow to continue under any bands for a while longer. Sometimes it seems like a chore to get these bands going (see the winters of 11-12, 12-13 and 13-14), but once they get going they tend to be stubborn, especially when there isn't some large scale feature like a shortwave to change the winds and disrupt them. Still kicking myself for my conservative call two days ago, but at least this evens out my overly aggressive calls over the years all at once Don't beat yourself up too bad. You continually provide better forecasts than the NWS. No one expected these amounts. These early season lake effect events are unusual with lake temps so warm. I wonder of the local models have a difficult time handling the heat/moisture flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 I've now got 10" measured in several spots on the deck. Nice. The chagrin area is in a pretty good spot right now. I think we are going to have a period of heavier snow late this afternoon so a foot seems like an easy bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Downtown Cleveland seemed to manage to be in many bands today and overnight. There looks to be 8 or 9" in the University Circle area. Definitely wasn't expecting to see that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I've got 12.5" in several spots on the deck. About 8" in the yard. Not sure if the ground was just warm, or my deck measurement is high. Have to see what NEOH comes in with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Don't beat yourself up too bad. You continually provide better forecasts than the NWS. No one expected these amounts. These early season lake effect events are unusual with lake temps so warm. I wonder of the local models have a difficult time handling the heat/moisture flux. Appreciate it. What frustrates me is I thought there'd be some banding yesterday morning and afternoon and possibly again today, and both of those definitely happened. So what I'm wondering is what compelled me not to go higher if I thought there'd be banding. Oh well, an event to file away in the memory banks. Downtown Cleveland seemed to manage to be in many bands today and overnight. There looks to be 8 or 9" in the University Circle area. Definitely wasn't expecting to see that much. That's a lot for that area, especially in the first half of November. If the band this evening holds they could push a foot! I've got 12.5" in several spots on the deck. About 8" in the yard. Not sure if the ground was just warm, or my deck measurement is high. Have to see what NEOH comes in with. Since the snow is wet and there isn't much wind, I'd imagine the total on the deck is pretty accurate. The warm ground is probably melting it from below. But we'll see what NEOH got. Anyways, the band is starting to flare back up. Cloud tops aren't as cold with it as they were yesterday through earlier today, so it may not be quite as intense, but there's abundant moisture on radar from Lake MI seeding the Lake Erie snow and with a ridge nosing in from the south I don't see the convergence near the central lakeshore into the snowbelt disapearing probably for the rest of the night. Instability remains moderate through the night with EL's hanging around 8k feet for most of the night, with good RHs below the EL, so there should be more decent totals under any banding...maybe not as insane as Lake County yesterday, but 3-7" amounts seem plausable in eastern Cuyahoga/Geuaga tonight...which would push the 271 corridor east to 10-18" storm totals over about 36 hours (yesterday evening to tomorrow morning). I'm a little concerned about wind shear increasing a little bit tonight, and the models try to dissipate the band, but with good Lake MI moisture probably until at least midnight and ridging building in from the southwest maintaining convergence I think that even if we don't get a firehose band that there would still be a loosely organized area of moderate snow through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Ya the snow definitely has alot of water content. Not like normal powdery lake effect. Should have some staying power. Off an on moderate to heavy snow this evening. Driveway looks to have 2-3" new snow since clearing it around 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Ya the snow definitely has alot of water content. Not like normal powdery lake effect. Should have some staying power. Off an on moderate to heavy snow this evening. Driveway looks to have 2-3" new snow since clearing it around 5. Closing in on 15" storm total now. I came home and measured an even 6" of new snow since this morning. Another 2" at least since. The warm ground makes it seem like less... But not much melting going on since the sun set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looking at some of the LSR's CLE is sending, parts of eastern Cuyahoga are over 10", such as Solon and Shaker Heights. Lakewood is also at around 8" (5" last night and another 2.9" today). The band isn't super intense now but those still look like some good bursts under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looking at some of the LSR's CLE is sending, parts of eastern Cuyahoga are over 10", such as Solon and Shaker Heights. Lakewood is also at around 8" (5" last night and another 2.9" today). The band isn't super intense now but those still look like some good bursts under it. Yep, there was another light band that hug the lakeshore again overnight. I picked up another 2" of snow. Storm total of about 9" here, which is mighty impressive. I never would have guessed that much would have fallen on Thursday. You can tell the ground is quite warm as the snow keeps melting from below. The bottom layer is a wet slush with lighter stuff on top. Nonetheless it definitely looks surreal out there. There are a couple of trees here or there that have been late to lose leaves that look completely out of place. I'm wondering if this storm is going to end up being the region's largest of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looks like 16.9" will be my storm total. Picked up 4.4" last night. Looks amazing out there. The snow last night has melted on the pavement down to 2"... but it was fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 At 9 AM Saturday, I measured 8 inchs near Lakewood Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Agree with NEOH. I measured 4" new snow overnight. Total of 15" on the deck with some settling. Top layer definitely more fluffy. Looks like 16.5" would be the total I came up with. Awesome first storm of the year. No easing into winter this year. Looks like a few more snow chances coming up in the short term as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Sorry couldn't resist to share this tweet from JB ; @BigJoeBastardi: Many spots ne Ohio, Nw Pa,Western New York will be closed Tuesday from lake effect blizzard. Hope its open Wednesday, have to go to Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Sorry couldn't resist to share this tweet from JB ; @BigJoeBastardi: Many spots ne Ohio, Nw Pa,Western New York will be closed Tuesday from lake effect blizzard. Hope its open Wednesday, have to go to Toronto We'll have to see how the winds set up. Might be a wsw flow event. The sun and warm ground is really compacting the snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 After adding up the reports from the PNS's from CLE and plotting them on a map, and then drawing, here's what I came up with for a rough estimate of snowfall distribution from this past lake effect event. Had to do a fair amount of "guessing" due to a lack of reports in SE Geauga, southern Ashtabula and a good portion of Trumbull...eastern Lorain, most of Cuyahoga, western and northern Geauga were covered pretty well with reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nice map OHWeather. Lots of compacting yesterday with the warm ground so it seems like a lot less. But it was a great event. Hard to believe we are going to see our first synoptic event tonight. CLE calling for 3-6". Couldn't ask for a better start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Good map! Pretty amazing event that I never thought we would have ended up like we did. Like NEOH said, alot of compacting and melting already. Should be a snowy week. After the system snow tonight and tomorrow, maybe we can get in on more les chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Looks really solid for 3-6" for you guys. Another fast start this year (arguably faster than last year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Ya 3-6 seems like a good bet. Noticed cle bumped totals to 4-8 total. Either way, fast start to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Seems like a lock for 3-6"... perhaps a few more. Wasted the day at the browns game so just looking at the models. This snow will seem much more substantial than the LES fluff. Hopefully everything verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 About 3" of cement so far. Another winter wonderland scene. 4" - 6" seems doable looking at the radar. With temps hovering around freezing there's alot of melting on the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Haha beat me to it. Yep very scenic outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Another 1/2" since I measured this morning. Total so far is 3.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Another 1/2" since I measured this morning. Total so far is 3.75". Looks like the snow is almost done. The low ratio snow really cut accumulations. We will have a window of 2-3 hours where we might see some LES... but we would be on the southern edge of anything that develops. The WSW flow favored areas are going to get pounded tonight and tomorrow./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Good point, accumulations would have been much better with slightly colder temps. Wind is picking up now. Hopefully we can share in on some of the fun this week. Looks like Erie to Buffalo will really cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Good point, accumulations would have been much better with slightly colder temps. Wind is picking up now. Hopefully we can share in on some of the fun this week. Looks like Erie to Buffalo will really cash in. Might be a tough week in terms of wind direction for LES. No chance for the current event, but hopefully we can get back in the action Thursday/Friday. A small change in wind direction makes such a big difference around here. The strong winds and cold temps should drop the western basin water temps pretty quickly the next few days. Too bad we couldn't get a WNW with this set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Impressive early season cold. Car read 9 degrees this morning. I'm sure the lake temp plunged pretty good. The late weekend and early next week warm up should help it recover some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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