Trent Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Trent - Can you post a link to the BUF WRF? Thanks! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/mesomodels.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/mesomodels.html Thanks. Appreciate it. Amazingly CLE's local model looks updated - http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/wrf/ Odd evolution of the snow band on CLE's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Pic from friend in NE part of painesville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 First blips of 1.00"+ liquid are appearing on radar scope near Mentor on the Lake. I'd imagine areas will have over a foot shortly, if not already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 0.55" liquid equivalent at Erie in the last hour! That's eye popping for liquid equivalent snow if that's not some glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Looks like there may be a south component to that band now...at least a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 The trough seems to finally be shifting south, slowly. Lake county has been crushed all day. In the pic above, 9" fell in 5 hours. Looks like we will need some serious re-organization over the western basin. The CLE local model actually showed this scenario pretty well -- the current band basically pushes off to the east with a new band forming on a WNW fetch. Typically the firehose band just sinks south and dimishes inland, but that doesn't look to be the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The trough seems to finally be shifting south, slowly. Lake county has been crushed all day. In the pic above, 9" fell in 5 hours. Looks like we will need some serious re-organization over the western basin. The CLE local model actually showed this scenario pretty well -- the current band basically pushes off to the east with a new band forming on a WNW fetch. Typically the firehose band just sinks south and dimishes inland, but that doesn't look to be the case this time. I'm still not sure how things exactly play out through the night. I think you'll get your 3-6" by tomorrow evening regardless, but I'm not sure how you'll get there.There's a good Lake Michigan connection that should stay into NE Ohio through a good portion of the evening. I still think the band will remain somewhat intact as it heads south, but it may become more cellular/bursty as opposed to the firehose it is now. Even so, with a good Lake Michigan connection I think some bursts of heavy snow and at least a couple inches will occur with this across most of Cuyahoga and southern Geauga this evening. Later tonight I think there's about a 30% chance of a decent WNW band forming, but I'm favoring more of a weaker snow shower pattern overnight. I think the winds may be just a bit too far WNW and the trough will push too far south...but I haven't looked at any models this afternoon. I'm still interested in what happens at the end of the event tomorrow and tomorrow evening as the winds go more westerly. If we don't see a good band develop tonight, we may see one redevelop tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Its a crapshoot tonight as to what happens. Radar looks pretty good right now. If moisture stays sufficient we might be in good shape in the Chagrin area. These early events tend to over-perform, and this one was already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Almost no accumulation here at the intersection of I-271 and I-480 in Warrensville Hts/Beachwood area. Flakes all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 A quick 1/2" ....maybe a tad more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nice west side band forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah. It's snowing nicely here. I'd be happy with a nice convergence band for a few hours. It seems that convergence band is trying to get its act together. We'll see how it does over the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I already picked up 1.5" in the past hour with this band. If this type of set up holds through the night, there are going to be some surprised folks come morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 These bursts of snow are dropping a lot of snow quickly. Hopefully a band will condense overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Picked up a hair over 2" in a little over an hour. Not bad. I can easily see how Mentor had 10-14" with a band over them for 5-6 hours. CLE bumped accums up a little bit overnight. With a couple more passing squalls and bands 4" seems achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The snow is pretty disorganized now, although the few bursts out there are slow moving and heavy, so it wouldn't shock me if some of the higher terrain areas end up with over 4" tonight. This event is busting my map left and right, except for conveniently where some of our Geauga County posters live. This is the first event I've under forecasted this badly in a while. Second year in a row the first LES event has busted any and all expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 It's not as pretty as earlier, but a convergence band has redeveloped. I'm sure we'll hear good things from any of our northern/eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga County posters this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Picked up between 4 and 5 inches last night. Very nice. We'll see how much more adds up today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The 4km NAM and HRW's that showed a widespread half inch plus of QPF from Cuyahoga east and 1-2" QPF in Lake County on Wednesday really nailed this. Glad it could overperform for you guys. Now got us one of these events over my holiday break in a month and we can all be happy On a side note, being up past 6AM working on a project is "fun" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The 4km NAM and HRW's that showed a widespread half inch plus of QPF from Cuyahoga east and 1-2" QPF in Lake County on Wednesday really nailed this. Glad it could overperform for you guys. Now got us one of these events over my holiday break in a month and we can all be happy On a side note, being up past 6AM working on a project is "fun" OHw, you still down at OU? What do you think about the Sun-Mon system? Looks like Athens might be the epicenter of 'whatever' that brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Just measured 6.5" as of 6:30am. What a beautiful scene out there. I'm surprised the band fired back up again last night. Will be interesting to see what we can add on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Roads and parking lots on the west side haven't been touched. They are packed snow and ice, and temps in the low to mid 20s didn't help either. I think many on this side of town were caught off guard after seeing how it was only snowing in the "snow belt" yesterday. Very nice to have an overperforming first snowfall of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Must be quite a bit of heat left in the ground despite the cold tems. My driveway was 2 inches of slush with 2 inches of fluff on top. A solid 6.5" on the deck with 4-5" on the grass. Looks like the winds have shifted more NW'erly. CLE calling for another 3-6" today, and 2-4" tonight. Those amounts seem high, but given what happened last night it wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yep, deck had the most snow. Almost 7" . The grass was 6" ( but that was close to the house) and driveway maybe half of that. Very picturesque early season snow. Glad all of the leaves were down this time lol. Next week looking interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Impressive snowfall maps from CLE -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Warning now for Cuyahoga. This is going to be the most impressive LES event for the area since late January 2013 and possibly since December 2010 depending on how much more adds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Warning now for Cuyahoga. This is going to be the most impressive LES event for the area since late January 2013 and possibly since December 2010 depending on how much more adds up. I was just thinking that. After last year's dismal lake effect season this is quite a nice treat. Really good band hugging the west side and then down 480. Most places will have at least 6" on the ground county wide by morning at minimum with the higher elevations doing much better. What's amazing is that this snowpack will likely survive a full week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Wonder if we will see a nice flare-up this afternoon. Looks like additional moisture is pushing in from the NW. Still snowing lightly in Chagrin with the occasional heavy burst. 480 corridor locked in the heavy band right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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