NEOH Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 A few snow grains in the air... a sign of things to come. Just looking at the GFS and NAM... the GFS turns around much more NW'erly than the NAM which doesn't bring the winds around to more than 280. It will be interesting to see what transpires. The snow off the lakes upstream isn't overly impressive at the moment. The next push of cold/moisture should fire things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yep definitely has the winter feel outside. Should look more like winter tomorrow. OHweather, are you going to do a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yep definitely has the winter feel outside. Should look more like winter tomorrow. OHweather, are you going to do a snow map? Yes Probably early this evening because I'm away from my computer for another few hours. My early thoughts are 2-4" maybe 5" for most of eastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga...and maybe 4-8" up closer to route 6. Maybe even 1-3" for the western lakeshore as there could be a burst of legitimately heavy snow for a time as the trough pushes south. We'll see if I change my mind. For fun, my guess is CLE issues advisories for Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, Trumbull and NW PA. They may go warning for Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula into NW PA depending on who the forecaster is but I'd bet on advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Haha ok sound good. That'll be a good first snow. Here is Cle's first map. Seems ambitious in the northern section http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/CLE_Snow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Haha ok sound good. That'll be a good first snow. Here is Cle's first map. Seems ambitious in the northern section http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/CLE_Snow.png That's an odd looking snowfall map. Snowhole right over Chardon. But seriously, those amounts wouldn't surprise me a bit. I'm thinking 2-4" out our way. If winds stay more westerly we'll be a few miles too far south for the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That's an odd looking snowfall map. Snowhole right over Chardon. But seriously, those amounts wouldn't surprise me a bit. I'm thinking 2-4" out our way. If winds stay more westerly we'll be a few miles too far south for the good stuff.They really cut back from when dta posted it (they had a huge 8-12" area earlier). Their map now isn't unreasonable IMO, although with this being the first event of the year I'm kind of surprised they didn't issue advisories this afternoon, although they certainly left the door open for them to be issued later tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That's an odd looking snowfall map. Snowhole right over Chardon. But seriously, those amounts wouldn't surprise me a bit. I'm thinking 2-4" out our way. If winds stay more westerly we'll be a few miles too far south for the good stuff. Looks like they updated it. There was a large 8-12 yellow area earlier. Definitely odd looking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It's been a while since I peeked at these, but these are showing a flare up tomorrow in Lake/Geauga/Ashtabula Counties and then forming a primary east west band that sags south tomorrow night between 6pm and midnight through Cuyahoga. That looks good for a quick hitting 1-3" for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 This is a tough forecast for a few reasons…I believe there are a couple of time periods where decent bands may be possible, but how sustained these bands are and where exactly they occur will determine who sees the most accumulations, and how heavy they are. Temps will also probably be marginal for accums near Lake Erie. Overall, lake effect parameters become decent by Thursday morning. Lake induced instability will become moderate around 7AM and become extreme at times for Thursday through a good portion of Friday, with inversions rising to 10-11k feet by Thursday afternoon and remaining high through Friday. In addition, some synoptic moisture/lift will overspread the area Thursday morning, with moisture levels remaining mediocre to good through Friday evening. Here’s the NAM RH for CLE: The big question is wind direction and possible band formation. I’ll throw up the NAM low level winds and go from there: The winds begin to back a little bit during the morning on Thursday as a surface trough approaches from the northwest, and this coincides with when instability begins to become decent and when synoptic moisture/lift overspread the area. I believe the backing of the low level winds ahead of the surface trough will increase convergence enough over the central lakeshore and snowbelt to get a band to form around rush hour or just after, and conditions look favorable for it to become intense by late morning. The GFS never really shows a southerly component to the surface winds, but the NAM and most hi-res models do, and the Euro appears to as well for a time late Thursday morning into the afternoon. I’m inclined to believe the hi-res models and Euro here as they may do a better job of capturing the effects of the lake on the low level wind fields. This suggests that any band may line up in extreme northeastern Cuyahoga County, Lake, northern Geauga and Ashtabula Counties, possibly near or north of route 6. If the GFS winds verify, it may occur closer to 322, but I’m skeptical. If this band persists for a few hours, it may produce 2-4” beneath it just inland. The winds then begin veering a bit towards evening as the surface trough goes by. This would cause any band to swing southwest and possibly affect areas as far west as northern Lorain County and as far south as parts of northern Medina/Summit/Portage Counties. As the band swings, it may produce a quick burst of accumulating snows along its way. Lake effect parameters will be very favorable tomorrow evening, so if we do get a band swinging south, a quick 1-2” as it goes wouldn’t shock me. The hi-res models also suggest the strongest Lake Michigan connection during the evening hours, which further improves the chances for very intense snow squalls for a time, but with the band being on the move at this point I’m not sure how organized/long lasting they’ll be. Uncertainty becomes pretty high Thursday night into Friday morning. Lake effect conditions will be very good and the winds will become very well aligned again, but I think the winds may take on too much of a northerly component to sustain a primary band. Some models show a real diminishing in the snow in this time frame which is possible, but I think that with a possible Lake Michigan connection continuing that at least scattered snow showers/a few squalls can continue overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, even if they aren’t very organized. This would probably produce another couple inches of accumulation inland for anyone affected. The winds will be well aligned so it’s not impossible that any band possibly re-stabilizes farther south across Cuyahoga County east into more of southern Geauga/northern Portage into Trumbull Counties, but I’m not really confident. It seems hard to get a band to re-establish immediately behind a trough when the winds take on a northerly component, especially when the wind shift happens pretty quickly. If the convergence hugs the lakeshore a bit longer then I suppose it’s possible. If this “best case scenario” happens, then a few inches may fall Thursday night into Friday morning across a good portion of Cuyahoga County (especially inland) points east. But, I’m currently leaning against this happening on a significant level, and am just expected light accumulations overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. By Friday afternoon and evening, surface ridging begins moving in from the southwest and winds slowly back again. This often causes convergence to re-intensify just inland from Lake Erie, and may cause a band to redevelop across northern/eastern Cuyahoga County east into the snowbelt. As can be seen above, moisture doesn’t become too limited until after midnight Friday night, so if this band re-develops another couple or even few inches may occur. Things should begin winding down after midnight Friday night, and by Saturday morning most of the lake effect should shift out over the lake and towards western NY. So, here’s what I did for accumulations: For the higher terrain in far southern Lake County into far northern Geauga County I figured 2-4” on Thursday under a band. Honestly, this has high bust potential either way, depending on where any band goes. With the snow rates I expect under any band on Thursday if it can develop, 2-4” isn’t unreasonable if any band persists for a few hours. If the band is closer to the lake, then more substantial accums may also occur in a narrow corridor under the band down to the lakeshore. Elsewhere, I figured a quick 1-2” Thursday evening as the surface trough passes and the band swings southwest and eventually weakens. If there is a good burst of snow showers as the trough passes, snow can probably accumulate a bit down to the shoreline. Since I’m betting against the band re-stabilizing overnight Thursday night into Friday, I didn’t add any more accums to southern Cuyahoga County, and figured an additional inch or two in the inland primary snowbelt Thursday night into Friday. This pushes totals to 2-4” for most of the primary snowbelt and 3-6” in the higher terrain in northern Geauga/far southern Lake County. For Friday afternoon and evening, I figured another 1-2” in eastern Cuyahoga County east into the primary snowbelt due to perhaps a last gasp as convergence increases due to high pressure building in from the southwest. This pushes most areas to their final totals on the map. Again though, it’s possible that this band over-performs and produces up to a few inches, or just doesn’t happen, which would cause the low end totals on the map to be more common than the high end total. I think these totals would be low if a more sustained band develops out of either “band potential”, so we’ll see. Banding prospects look very iffy IMO overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, but if a band occurs, then the southwestern portions would see higher accums as well. Model breakdown: 12km NAM: Shows good banding both timeframes, widespread 0.5”+ QPF from eastern Cuyahoga east into the snowbelt. Also shows better QPF in southern/western Cuyahoga as it does hang on to more of a band Thursday night into Friday morning. 4km NAM: Similar to 12km NAM, slightly higher QPF in eastern Cuyahoga/western Geauga. NMM: Shows good band in my highest accums area tomorrow, and a widespread 0.5-1” of QPF from eastern Cuyahoga County east. ARW: Shows good band tomorrow, but slightly closer to lakeshore. 1-2” QPF in parts of Lake/Ashtabula Counties, generally 0.5”-1” QPF in the rest of the primary snowbelt. Shows a band hugging the western lakeshore Thursday evening, dropping around 0.5” QPF there. BUF WRF’s: Slightly different ideas, but most of them like the band tomorrow morning in southern Lake/northern Geauga/possibly NE Cuyahoga east into Ashtabula, and some try to show intense snow showers (nothing too organized though) developing behind the trough passage by Thursday evening. Oh, and the map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nice forecast ohweather. These early season events are always tricky. Regardless of what happens it will be good to have snow cover again. The image Trent posted shows a great scenario with the trough convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Good writeup and map! I'll gladly take it to get on the board for the winter season. Of course ...always hoping for more lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Traffic cams show I-90 covered in snow from that band in NE Cuyahoga County. Traffic is at a crawl headed towards downtown from the east side. And so begins the snow season of 14/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Getting some very light snow here. Saw an advisory was issued overnight. Seems reasonable. Just read the LR discussion from cle and they are already mentioning thunder snow for next week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 We'll see if that "band" into NE Cuyahoga/Lake/northern Geauga can maintain itself as some heavier returns move in shortly, and perhaps start some good accumulations. It doesn't look like there's more than half an inch on the ground along I-90, but that was enough to do the dirty work evidently. I agree with CLE issuing an advisory, especially with this being the first event of the season, but I'm a little surprised they left Cuyahoga out. We'll see how everything plays out going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 An impressive and rather larger band has developed over the lake and into Lake and northern Geauga County. I'd imagine this is going to lay down some decent accumulations. How far south will this creep during the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 An impressive and rather larger band has developed over the lake and into Lake and northern Geauga County. I'd imagine this is going to lay down some decent accumulations. How far south will this creep during the day? Yeah. That band is impressive. The flow appears rather light, so it will be interesting to see how far inland it pushes. Looks like the movement with be slow so higher accum's are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 That band is about as intense as some of the hi-res models advertised yesterday, but 5-10 miles farther north than advertised too, which isn't too uncommon. Euclid managed to get 2.5" this morning in just a few hours, so it wouldn't surprise me if Lake County (especially in the higher terrain along and south of I-90) gets a quick few inches out of the band into the early afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows 850mb winds picking up to 10-15 knots over western Lake Erie, which is better than the 5 knot flow over eastern Lake Erie. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the band sort of straightens out and starts getting a little farther inland by like 2PM. The wind shift to a more WNW direction still looks on track for this evening, so we'll probably see the activity make a bigger jump southwest around then. With such a light flow (never more than 20 knots in the boundary layer) it wouldn't shock me if the band swings southwest a bit slower than modelled, which is also not uncommon. Looking upstream and looking at conditions over Lake Erie later this evening into tonight, I don't completely buy the models that almost completely shut off the lake effect for a time tonight...even if the band gets disrupted this evening behind the trough, which is very possible, I still think that snow showers should keep going, especially in the higher terrain. We also will probably have some sort of Lake Michigan connection through this evening, although after that I'm not sure if it'll maintain if the winds take on too much of a northerly component. Some of the 6z BUF WRF's tried to show a band re-organizing tomorrow morning into the afternoon as ridging builds in from the southwest and increases convergence across the central lakeshore and snowbelt. That's also something we've seen before so areas farther south than today's band may have some hope for at least a band of moderate snow for a time tomorrow. I still think a good chunk of eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga County east into the snowbelt could see 2-4"/3-6" type amounts, especially if the band is a little slower to swing south and weaken tonight than some of the models show, and especially if the band can possibly re-organize for a time tomorrow. I'm a bit worried about my 4-8" in northern Geauga County, although more of Lake County might see those amounts (with most of it falling today) if this band persists for another few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 CLE just bumped Lake and lakeshore Ashtabula to a warning. That band is really holding steady in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 CLE just bumped Lake and lakeshore Ashtabula to a warning. That band is really holding steady in those areas. Great set-up for lake county at the moment. The band is looking very healthy. Hopefully we'll see it start to sink further south soon. Not feeling really good about snow amounts out this way with the flow so weak. If the winds pick up as you mentioned we can start to take advantage of the elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Great set-up for lake county at the moment. The band is looking very healthy. Hopefully we'll see it start to sink further south soon. Not feeling really good about snow amounts out this way with the flow so weak. If the winds pick up as you mentioned we can start to take advantage of the elevation. The light winds are probably really helping to maximize convergence right along the lakeshore. I'll be very curious to see the amounts reported later. It looks like a nice light snow in Chardon again on that webcam, and it appears to be slowly expanding south. It might take a while to start getting accums down your way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 radar looks good dudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Erie got 0.24" of liquid equivalent last hour, which is pretty legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 radar looks good dudes yep... double digit totals look likely if this intensity continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 The light winds are probably really helping to maximize convergence right along the lakeshore. I'll be very curious to see the amounts reported later. It looks like a nice light snow in Chardon again on that webcam, and it appears to be slowly expanding south. It might take a while to start getting accums down your way though. Snowing lightly in Chagrin. The band is starting to backfill into the western basin so the fetch is being maximized (80-90 miles or so). Looking up stream, I don't see enough of a northerly component to the winds to push the band too far south of the lakeshore even with the trough passage... the band will line-up on a 280-290 flow for quite sometime, which should continue the firehose with contribution from lake MI. Not sure what happens late tonight but the areas seeing the heaviest snow now may be the bullseye. I'm sure CLE will add Cuyahoga to the advisory this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Snowing lightly in Chagrin. The band is starting to backfill into the western basin so the fetch is being maximized (80-90 miles or so). Looking up stream, I don't see enough of a northerly component to the winds to push the band too far south of the lakeshore even with the trough passage... the band will line-up on a 280-290 flow for quite sometime, which should continue the firehose with contribution from lake MI. Not sure what happens late tonight but the areas seeing the heaviest snow now may be the bullseye. I'm sure CLE will add Cuyahoga to the advisory this afternoon. Yeah, my optimism is growing for Cuyahoga and southern Geauga (and possibly northern Summit/Portage) hanging on to a better band tonight. The Lake MI connection looks great for a while, and the band is definitely hugging the lake shore more than the models showed earlier, which is a good sign for it not whipping south quickly and weakening later. I still like my 3-6" for eastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga, especially if tonight performs a bit better than I originally expected. Kicking myself for not giving the possible Lake County band enough credit in my forecast, the signs were there ahead of time, but it seems like it's been since we've had a great band like this into NE Ohio. Also, radarscope showing some lightning strikes in Lake County just before 1:15: Betsy Kling just tweeted a photo of 8" in Geneva on the lake from 12:30PM. WOW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Getting light snow now in Solon. Man I hope that band can hang on when it comes south. Won't the added elevation help it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Getting light snow now in Solon. Man I hope that band can hang on when it comes south. Won't the added elevation help it?Added elevation is typically good for lake effect, although these big bands are driven by convergent winds near the lakeshore. If the winds turn too quickly they'll disrupt the band. So if this just slowly shifts, you guys farther south have a better chance of it maintaining tonight.Minor side note: getting flurries in Athens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Easy way to tell where it's snowing heavily on the ground is to check Google traffic. The dark red shaded roads are obvious heavy squalls. Some of the updated BUF WRF models are complete weenie runs for Cuyahoga County tonight. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Getting light snow now in Solon. Man I hope that band can hang on when it comes south. Won't the added elevation help it? Yeah, could be good if it maintains this intensity, but the biggest question IMO is if it makes it this far south. I have my doubts but OHWeather is on board so I'm sold . Our elevation will help, but won't be maximed given the weak winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Easy way to tell where it's snowing heavily on the ground is to check Google traffic. The dark red shaded roads are obvious heavy squalls. Some of the updated BUF WRF models are complete weenie runs for Cuyahoga County tonight. Fingers crossed! Trent - Can you post a link to the BUF WRF? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.