Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[NEOH]

GFS, Canadian and NAM have all trended hard to the Euro for Friday-Saturday, which means unless we see things shift back east, we'll struggle to change to snow until Saturday morning, and by that point I doubt we'd get any real accums. If things are going to trend back east and more favorable for us, it has to happen with today's (Wednesday's) runs. Never doubt the Euro I guess

 

Models have backed off on the colder 850 temps. -6 to -8 in a pefect set up might work,but we certainly won't have that this weekend. At least I will be able to get a final yard clean up done.

[OHweather]

Models have backed off on the colder 850 temps. -6 to -8 in a pefect set up might work,but we certainly won't have that this weekend. At least I will be able to get a final yard clean up done.

It's still going to be raw Friday and Saturday, but no, the leaves won't be covered in snow

On the bright side, I finally got BUFKIT on this laptop. It will be nice to give it a workout eventually.

[OHweather]

The Fox 8 Weather Team released their winter outlook tonight...it's close to my thoughts...they went with an overall winter temp of 3F below normal and 88" of snow at CLE, pending 1-3 good panhandle hook snow storms.

 

http://fox8.com/2014/10/30/bundle-up-looks-to-be-a-consistently-cold-winter-ahead/

 

It looks like we'll stay too warm for more than a cold rain with temps in the upper 30's/lower 40's Friday night. By Saturday, the GFS and NAM both show 850mb temps getting to -6 to -8 (GFS maybe a touch colder) with alright moisture in place and a northerly flow, so Saturday looks rotten with off and on light precip (could be mixed with snow). By Saturday evening surface temps should fall off pretty nicely inland and the GFS and NAM both support some light lake effect continuing Saturday evening (with the hi-res NAM showing the renmants of a Huron connection hanging around in the secondary Snowbelt), so I suppose a dusting in spots is possible Saturday evening. A raw weekend regardless and nothing more really than just our first flakes...this could've been interesting if the vort max closed off farther east than it will.

 

I'm liking the middle of November for our next threat for something wintry due to a possible +PNA and -AO developing (both the GFS and Euro ensembles have been hinting at this off and on for a little while), so we'll see if that holds. At least the lake temps won't cool too fast with seasonable to even mild weather quickly returning next week.

[Trent]

Sadly this weekend has looked less impressive run after run, even in terms of total rainfall and temperatures.

IMBY and CLE were in relative isolated dry spots this month, which depending on how much falls today, might come in below normal for rain this month. I know most other spots got soaked again this month, but "officially" this may go down as a dry month.

[NEOH]

Nasty day out there. Nothing but rain falling. Perhaps some flakes later today. Good call ohweather.

Trent - as you mentioned, precip varied greatly throughout the area in October. It was another soaker out this way with just under 4.7".

[nwohweather]

Had snow all night last night here in Bowling Green. Not much stuck but a few cars in the shade have it on their roofs and windows. Got down to 32

[OHweather]

Had a IP/SN mix in Reminderville around 3PM, and drove through some sleet just south of Downtown on 176, so it's not confined to inland. Showers are pretty light though.

[Trent]

Had a few graupel / snow pellets here this afternoon as well. Had about a half inch of the lake effect/enhanced rain overnight.

[Trent]

Interestingly enough, the buoy in the western basin has not recorded a water temperature drop since the cold front came through Friday. In fact, it actually rose a few tenths initially, however the overall temperature change for the past two days is nothing. Maybe all the cold water generated at the surface is sinking and being replaced by warmer water rising to the top? I thought for sure surface temperatures would have taken a dive this weekend.

October ended up being relatively normal temperature wise across NE Ohio, CLE was down a few tenths and CAK was up a degree. Lake Erie surface temperatures, after running well below normal for most of the year, have definitely stabilized and are running near normal to a hair above normal. We'll see what this holds for the LES season this year.

[IWXwx]

Interestingly enough, the buoy in the western basin has not recorded a water temperature drop since the cold front came through Friday. In fact, it actually rose a few tenths initially, however the overall temperature change for the past two days is nothing. Maybe all the cold water generated at the surface is sinking and being replaced by warmer water rising to the top? I thought for sure surface temperatures would have taken a dive this weekend.

October ended up being relatively normal temperature wise across NE Ohio, CLE was down a few tenths and CAK was up a degree. Lake Erie surface temperatures, after running well below normal for most of the year, have definitely stabilized and are running near normal to a hair above normal. We'll see what this holds for the LES season this year.

 

Form looking at the lake temp maps, it could be the specific location of the buoy. The overall lake temp looks to have dropped about 2° overall in the past 48 hours.

 

Here is the map from Friday:

 

The latest map shows a 2° drop in the main body as well as along the western shore area:

 

 

I don't know why, but it looks like the only area of the lake that hasn't had much of a temp change is right around that buoy.

[Trent]

I'm really surprised that this year's Lake Erie temperatures are running the highest for the past 6 years in early November. While last weekend's cold snap surely brought down temperatures, the drop pales in comparison to previous years. With the arctic blasts progged over the next 2 weeks, could prove to be interesting for inland locales.

 

[dta1984]

^^ that is surprising! Primed for a good les event in the next few weeks. As NEOH said, the leaves on the trees have fallen, so I'm ready for the snow now.

[OHweather]

We'll see what next week brings. The polar vortex dropping into the Great Lakes tends to be a good sign for significant LES somewhere, but wind direction and moisture, among other details, will be worked out over the next several days. It will certainly be cold enough for significant LES if 850mb temps can get to -10C or colder (which the GFS and Euro both easily show by Wednesday), and the flow looks west-ish, so we'll see. This could be a fairly drawn out event. If the polar vortex stays farther NW Lake Erie is probably stuck in a more WSW flow, and any LES goes towards western NY...if the polar vortex moves across the eastern lakes as the 0z GFS show, the winds would be more WNW, which would be favorable for the primary Snowbelt. I'll raise the OHweather weenie-out scale to 3/10 for next week...it's a new scale I invented while typing this post! Me being in SE Ohio next week may influence the scale a little bit.

[NEOH]

I'm really surprised that this year's Lake Erie temperatures are running the highest for the past 6 years in early November. While last weekend's cold snap surely brought down temperatures, the drop pales in comparison to previous years. With the arctic blasts progged over the next 2 weeks, could prove to be interesting for inland locales.

 

 

We usually have quite a few high wind events in the Fall. Wonder if that contributes to more rapid heat loss. It has been pretty tranquil this year in terms of high winds.

[NEOH]

We'll see what next week brings. The polar vortex dropping into the Great Lakes tends to be a good sign for significant LES somewhere, but wind direction and moisture, among other details, will be worked out over the next several days. It will certainly be cold enough for significant LES if 850mb temps can get to -10C or colder (which the GFS and Euro both easily show by Wednesday), and the flow looks west-ish, so we'll see. This could be a fairly drawn out event. If the polar vortex stays farther NW Lake Erie is probably stuck in a more WSW flow, and any LES goes towards western NY...if the polar vortex moves across the eastern lakes as the 0z GFS show, the winds would be more WNW, which would be favorable for the primary Snowbelt. I'll raise the OHweather weenie-out scale to 3/10 for next week...it's a new scale I invented while typing this post! Me being in SE Ohio next week may influence the scale a little bit.

 

Yeah, next week could be very interesting. LES is hard enough to nowcast so I'll curb my enthusiasm until we get closer. Only 3/10 on the OHWeather scale? This has the makings of Veteran's Day '96 - http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gh%29/arch/cases/961109/home.rxml

[Trent]

I wish I could experience that event. The 50-70" totals from Shaker and points east obviously trump and completely over shadow those on the west side. However, 20"+ of lake effect from Downtown to near the airport is extremely noteworthy. However if you've got 50" at the Shaker Heights border 5 miles from downtown, I could see how the 20" would seem paltry in comparison.

I wonder how accurate those contour maps are. I'd like to see some pictures from downtown during that event.

[OHweather]

Yeah, next week could be very interesting. LES is hard enough to nowcast so I'll curb my enthusiasm until we get closer. Only 3/10 on the OHWeather scale? This has the makings of Veteran's Day '96 - http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gh%29/arch/cases/961109/home.rxml

Haha, due to how far out it is I'm not going to get too excited yet. The 12z GFS and GGEM look a lot less amplified than past runs (don't drop the PV into the Great Lakes), although the GFS at least would still be a decent setup. Wind direction and moisture will be two big variables to watch (as always). 850mb temps with the '96 event actually were about the same as or for the first half of the event a bit warmer than what we look to get into next week (if we actually see -10 to -15C 850mb temps), so it'll definitely be cold enough. But we'll see how other things shake out.

[NEOH]

I wish I could experience that event. The 50-70" totals from Shaker and points east obviously trump and completely over shadow those on the west side. However, 20"+ of lake effect from Downtown to near the airport is extremely noteworthy. However if you've got 50" at the Shaker Heights border 5 miles from downtown, I could see how the 20" would seem paltry in comparison.

I wonder how accurate those contour maps are. I'd like to see some pictures from downtown during that event.

 

The snow totals were all over the place so not sure how accurate that map is... huge variations over short distances.The bands moved around quite a bit. It was an extremely wet snow with a lot of graupel. The one weird thing I remember is that as soon as evening came around the bands seemed to intensify.

[Trent]

Interesting morning AFD from CLE, still 5-6 days out with this one, so I wouldn't get excited yet:

 

ARCTIC FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY

MORNING. NOW...THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE ALL THE WAY UP TO 10K FEET
WITH FLOW THAT BECOMES WELL ALIGNED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C OVER THE ENTIRE AREA COUPLED WITH LAKE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. THIS LEADS TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE FOR A LENGTHY PERIOD OF TIME. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP TO 12K FEET. SOME RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE AT
TIMES BUT INSTABILITY COULD STILL OVERCOME THE RIDGING TO PRODUCE
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

JURY IS STILL OUT WHETHER THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE WILL SEE RAIN
MIXING WITH THE SNOW OR REMAIN ALL RAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. I THINK AT NIGHT THOUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW RIGHT UP TO THE LAKE SHORE.
SO...FOR THE NORTHEAST SNOWBELT AND POSSIBLY...DEPENDING ON
DIRECTION OF THE FLOW...THE SOUTHERN SECONDARY SNOWBELT AREAS...
STAY TUNED AS WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS ONE CLOSELY.

[OHweather]

Interesting morning AFD from CLE, still 5-6 days out with this one, so I wouldn't get excited yet:

 

I really do appreciate Lombardy's enthusiasm at CLE. It is far out and details, after changing a lot this week, are still uncertain. The last day's worth of modelling appears to be in decent agreement in a pretty shallow arctic airmass for Wednesday and little lake effect of consequence, however the GFS, Euro and Canadian all appear to bring a pretty potent shortwave through Thursday into Thursday night with a deeper arctic airmass and a light W to NW flow behind it, so I do think there's some potential for heavier lake effect Thursday and Friday at some point. At this point, there still isn't enough confidence to bump my weenie out scale higher than 3/10 though.

[OHweather]

After another day's worth of modelling, there's still pretty good agreement in a nice shortwave moving across Lake Erie Thursday night with a nice shot of PVA that may even spark a little light synoptic snow. Lake effect parameters still look pretty good in general Thursday-Friday with moderate to extreme lake induced instability and equilibrium levels coming up to near or better than 10k feet, with a lake to 500mb temp differential of better than 40C too on the GFS and Euro. Also, there should be a decent period of increased moisture Thursday and Thursday night as the shortwave goes by, with pretty well aligned and not too strong WNW winds for that time period. So, some decent snow showers could well play out if the models hold. The question would be how organized are any snow showers and where does any banding set up...it's early, but with a shortwave going by and the models appearing to show a surface trough just north of the lake Thursday into Friday, the potential appears to be half decent for a primary/convergence band near the central lakeshore into the snowbelt. Whether that stays farther north and misses most of you guys or sinks in a good portion of eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties remains to be seen. Regardless, I'll bump up to 4/10.

[NEOH]

After another day's worth of modelling, there's still pretty good agreement in a nice shortwave moving across Lake Erie Thursday night with a nice shot of PVA that may even spark a little light synoptic snow. Lake effect parameters still look pretty good in general Thursday-Friday with moderate to extreme lake induced instability and equilibrium levels coming up to near or better than 10k feet, with a lake to 500mb temp differential of better than 40C too on the GFS and Euro. Also, there should be a decent period of increased moisture Thursday and Thursday night as the shortwave goes by, with pretty well aligned and not too strong WNW winds for that time period. So, some decent snow showers could well play out if the models hold. The question would be how organized are any snow showers and where does any banding set up...it's early, but with a shortwave going by and the models appearing to show a surface trough just north of the lake Thursday into Friday, the potential appears to be half decent for a primary/convergence band near the central lakeshore into the snowbelt. Whether that stays farther north and misses most of you guys or sinks in a good portion of eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties remains to be seen. Regardless, I'll bump up to 4/10.

 

Good to see conditions are still looking favorable. Short duration but could be a fun 24hrs.

[OHweather]

I'm continuing to get more optimistic for the lake effect Thursday-Friday. The GFS and NAM continue to give a period of moderate to at times extreme instability from Thursday morning through a good chunk of Friday, with mediocre to decent moisture depth for that entire window. In addition, a shortwave and associated surface trough are still shown by essentially every model to move through Thursday evening. Winds look W ahead of the surface trough, and more WNW behind it, and well aligned and generally under 20-25 knots below 10k feet for the duration of the event.

 

I've seemed to notice a higher likelihood of primary band formation ahead of a surface trough (which makes sense), so if this all holds, it would not surprise me to see the classic 322 type W-E band develop on Thursday as lake effect conditions improve and become pretty intense and hold relatively steady for at least several hours, before gradually sagging south and eventually weakening later Thursday night as the winds go more WNW. If a band works out, even though the snow will be pretty wet and ratios won't be very high, the overall decent lake effect parameters suggest the band would put down moderate to heavy accums, and since the shortwave doesn't go by too fast it could be pretty sustained and put down a corridor of 6"+. Whether or not the band drifts over Cleveland itself and accumulates down to the lakeshore or not is another topic that can be addressed closer in if the models hold with this general solution. The models have generally held since Friday night though, so confidence is definitely improving, at least for me. I'll go 6/10 actually.

 

The GFS has a similar look, but just because the NAM is going to pick up a bit better on heat/moisture flux from the lake, here are some NAM BUFKIT images for CLE...(I should probably cut my fingers off before posting the NAM BUFKIT images more than 60 hours out, but oh well).

 

18z Thursday:

 

 

0z Friday:

 

 

6z Friday:

 

 

12z Friday:

 

[dta1984]

Wow 6/10! Haha I'm ready! Hopefully it can set up a little further south, or at least not weaken too much. I'm definitely itching for the first accumulation. After this, there looks like another chance of snow over the weekend.

[NEOH]

I'm continuing to get more optimistic for the lake effect Thursday-Friday. The GFS and NAM continue to give a period of moderate to at times extreme instability from Thursday morning through a good chunk of Friday, with mediocre to decent moisture depth for that entire window. In addition, a shortwave and associated surface trough are still shown by essentially every model to move through Thursday evening. Winds look W ahead of the surface trough, and more WNW behind it, and well aligned and generally under 20-25 knots below 10k feet for the duration of the event.

 

I've seemed to notice a higher likelihood of primary band formation ahead of a surface trough (which makes sense), so if this all holds, it would not surprise me to see the classic 322 type W-E band develop on Thursday as lake effect conditions improve and become pretty intense and hold relatively steady for at least several hours, before gradually sagging south and eventually weakening later Thursday night as the winds go more WNW. If a band works out, even though the snow will be pretty wet and ratios won't be very high, the overall decent lake effect parameters suggest the band would put down moderate to heavy accums, and since the shortwave doesn't go by too fast it could be pretty sustained and put down a corridor of 6"+. Whether or not the band drifts over Cleveland itself and accumulates down to the lakeshore or not is another topic that can be addressed closer in if the models hold with this general solution. The models have generally held since Friday night though, so confidence is definitely improving, at least for me. I'll go 6/10 actually.

 

The GFS has a similar look, but just because the NAM is going to pick up a bit better on heat/moisture flux from the lake, here are some NAM BUFKIT images for CLE...(I should probably cut my fingers off before posting the NAM BUFKIT images more than 60 hours out, but oh well).

 

 

The surface trough will be the key to seeing higher totals IMO. We usually see a primary band with this type of set up so that's a good sign. The troughs tend to get hung-up around the 322 and 422 corridors.

[OHweather]

The surface trough will be the key to seeing higher totals IMO. We usually see a primary band with this type of set up so that's a good sign. The troughs tend to get hung-up around the 322 and 422 corridors.

Yeah, if we don't see a primary band the totals will be relatively ho-hum (although you Geauga County folk would still probably see your first accumulation either way). The NAM shows a bit of a WSW flow ahead of the trough which may focus any heavier band closer to US 6 before it shifts farther south, so we'll have to watch that low level flow. The GFS looks like it has surface winds of 280-290 before the trough passes, which would probably be just what you guys between 322 and 422 want.

 

The Sunday snow event may produce a light area wide accum if it's not too warm in the low levels, and then we'll see where lake effect sets up next week behind it...the GFS looks primed for heavy LES early next week, but that's far out and there may be more of a SW wind in that timeframe...we'll see.

[dta1984]

We need to cash in on a few big les events, as I'm sure ice on the lake won't be far away with the projected cold stretch.

[NEOH]

Yeah, if we don't see a primary band the totals will be relatively ho-hum (although you Geauga County folk would still probably see your first accumulation either way). The NAM shows a bit of a WSW flow ahead of the trough which may focus any heavier band closer to US 6 before it shifts farther south, so we'll have to watch that low level flow. The GFS looks like it has surface winds of 280-290 before the trough passes, which would probably be just what you guys between 322 and 422 want.

 

The Sunday snow event may produce a light area wide accum if it's not too warm in the low levels, and then we'll see where lake effect sets up next week behind it...the GFS looks primed for heavy LES early next week, but that's far out and there may be more of a SW wind in that timeframe...we'll see.

 

That would be best case scenario for getting the primary band going. And yes, 290 is a good flow or us folks further south. If the directional change isn't too extreme behind the trough it should slow once it pushes inland.

[Trent]

The long term looks anomalously cold for the rest of the month. I'm sure the western basin will be icing over by the beginning of December. So hopefully we can cash in early on LES. I wouldn't want a repeat of last winter, which probably was the "worst of the best" winters ... Mediocre LES on perpetual SW winds, fringed by a snow storm every week, but in the end continual cold and snow that added to above normal totals. Major snowstorms and LES events that bullseyed NE Ohio last winter were hard to come by.

I like this type of set up as the LES band often has a "tail" over the west side of town. With lake temps so warm, I'm not holding my breath for any accumulations out this way. In this age of media hype for any type of event, I can only imagine what the local news will do if 3-5" in the snow belt starts to look likely.

[OHweather]

We need to cash in on a few big les events, as I'm sure ice on the lake won't be far away with the projected cold stretch.

I believe there was good ice on the lake in mid-December when I came home for my winter break last year, and I believe I wasn't happy about it ...hopefully we avoid that this year. If we get an epic cold shot next week like some models show and the rest of November finishes cool after that, it wouldn't shock me if some shore ice starts forming in the western basin before the end of the month, which is pretty darn early. Really though, even if the rest of this month is cold, a brief torch or even a week or two of somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in early December would probably be enough to keep the lake relatively open through most of December, which I could live with.

 

That would be best case scenario for getting the primary band going. And yes, 290 is a good flow or us folks further south. If the directional change isn't too extreme behind the trough it should slow once it pushes inland.

My one concern is if a band develops, how quickly does it the band swing southwest, and does it weaken? If the change in wind behind the trough isn't extreme, the band may swing pretty slowly and then restabilize farther southwest like you mentioned...that's sometimes when my old place in Solon would cash in. The last time a trough went by and didn't eventually vaporize a band was February 1, 2013...the winds went from due west to WNW with the trough, and a surface ridge nosing in from the southwest that morning may have helped keep good convergence in place even after the trough pushed inland a bit. This event looks iffy in terms of a wind shift behind the trough, it could be a bigger shift than the above event, and the ridging is building in more from the west than the southwest, which may not keep convergence going as well farther south once the trough goes by. WSW winds ahead of a trough seem good for primary band development mainly north of you guys, with the band swinging southwest and perhaps dropping a quick couple or few inches before weakening, so we'll see. I'd say best case is more due west winds ahead of the trough so the initial primary band, that may have more staying power before the trough swings through, develops closer to 322. But wind direction still isn't 100% certain yet, so we'll see obviously.

 

The long term looks anomalously cold for the rest of the month. I'm sure the western basin will be icing over by the beginning of December. So hopefully we can cash in early on LES. I wouldn't want a repeat of last winter, which probably was the "worst of the best" winters ... Mediocre LES on perpetual SW winds, fringed by a snow storm every week, but in the end continual cold and snow that added to above normal totals. Major snowstorms and LES events that bullseyed NE Ohio last winter were hard to come by.

I like this type of set up as the LES band often has a "tail" over the west side of town. With lake temps so warm, I'm not holding my breath for any accumulations out this way. In this age of media hype for any type of event, I can only imagine what the local news will do if 3-5" in the snow belt starts to look likely.

If a good band develops and drifts over the western lakeshore, I think there could be light accums. You had an inch or so last October IIRC, and the lake temps were warmer and the airmass was warmer, so it would definitely take a good band moving over you, which is iffy at this point, but I wouldn't say some accums are impossible.

 

If the lake wasn't mainly frozen by Christmas last year, there would've been some decent events in late January and February. I remember several "events" that featured a good W to NW wind and some light to even moderate amounts, and a lot of the events were not forecast well, and I'm sure they would've been a lot heavier had the lake not been mainly frozen. The synoptic snow situation was just unfortunate for NE OH last year ...even Athens saw 200-300% of normal snow we figured here (average snowfall data here is scarce, but we figured we saw at least 40" with averages a bit under 20")...so I wasn't unhappy with the results down here, which still pale in comparison to even a "normal" winter in Cleveland.

 

It wouldn't shock me if 3-5" or more becomes a good bet in the Snowbelt. What will get annoying is if the media looks to hype it for the western 2/3rds of Cuyahoga County if say an advisory is eventually issued, when those parts of the county will only see minimal accums. That starts getting into the argument of possibly splitting Cuyahoga into at least 2 different forecast zones, but we here unfortuantely don't have the power to do that, because I think that would help clarify things for a lot of people in a lot of typical LES setups for NE OH.