Trent Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 These might be a tad exaggerated, but it paints the picture of the surplusses. The extreme wet pattern that has been in place over NE Ohio for the past several years refuses to go away: Water Year To Date: Year To Date: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 It really has been a great summer. Not hot, and abundant rain. Can only hope this pattern continues through winter. I'm guessing lake temps are running quite cool. Hopefully that doesn't lead to another destructive early season lake effect event along with a shortened le season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted August 14, 2014 Author Share Posted August 14, 2014 63 degrees IMBY with mostly sunny skies... in mid-August nonetheless. Not sure what the record high min is today but it feels chilly out there with the breeze. DTA - Hopefully we don't see a pattern change prior to winter. Gotta go with persistence at this point. The colder lake temps would just bring the tree destruction closer to the shoreline. We're kinda screwed out here either way being at our elevation and distance from the lake. Our LES season is short compared to the other lakes so with the big LES snows comes the ice unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 Up to 6.40" of rain IMBY for the month. Doesn't look like the tap will turn off anytime soon. I'm hoping the heaviest rains slide SW of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 In one of the other threads there was a graph of departure to date of moisture for the Midwest. It was clear to see how wet NEO has been. Noticed a few trees starting to get some fall color as well. Seems incredibly early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 In one of the other threads there was a graph of departure to date of moisture for the Midwest. It was clear to see how wet NEO has been. Noticed a few trees starting to get some fall color as well. Seems incredibly early. Storms are brewing again today. Yeah, I think those are the red maples that are turning. I've noticed burning bushes as well. Way too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Getting close to that time of year. Starting to re-read some of the thread in prep for snow season haha. Coldest morning in a while. Wunderground showed 40 here, and 38 a little further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 The streak we had of sunny/mild days and cool nights really has the colors popping. I'd say we are week or so away from peak color in the Chagrin area. Picked up .42" of rain yesterday after the longest dry stretch in quite some time. Looks like CLE finished -2 for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atownwx Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Moderate sleet this morning just south of youngstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 It has been quite dry lately, seems unusual. The lakes are really running below normal, which could bode well for another early season LES event. Hard to believe it's coming up on the 1 year anniversary of the big October LES event last year. I was reading a book about the huge November gale of 1913 that brought hurricane force winds to the Great Lakes and sunk dozens of ships. That's the storm that subsequently created one of Cleveland's largest lake effect blizzards. The book showed a weather map and it appeared that conditions were perfect for a Huron connection to develop over the area. Seems we're well overdo for that type of November storm around here. If we maintain these below normal anomalies through winter, I'd be quite concerned for a rather abrupt end to LES this season again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 10, 2014 Author Share Posted October 10, 2014 Yeah, it has been dry compared to the past few months. No complaints from me as I can actually cut my grass and not tear up the yard.The ground is still pretty soft though. There was spotty frost this morning on rooftops and grass. Hard to believe we are a week or so away from last year first LES event. Let's just get the leaves down before the first LES this year. I was flying into to CLE yesterday afternoon and had a nice view of the foliage. You could easily see the "greener" foliage near the lakeshore with much more color inland. I'm looking forward to LES season. Hopefully we can get a few decent events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Also of interest: So far this season the last 80 degree day was September 5th. While another 80 degree day is certainly a possibilty, the odds go down considerably day by day. Record highs by the end of next week are around 80. I'd have to imagine this year could rank high on the list of earliest last 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Looks like everyone away from the lake had their first freeze last night. Even CLE had their first freeze last night. Average first freeze at CLE is October 29th, so last night's freeze ranks in the top 10th percentile of early freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 13, 2014 Author Share Posted October 13, 2014 Looks like everyone away from the lake had their first freeze last night. Even CLE had their first freeze last night. Average first freeze at CLE is October 29th, so last night's freeze ranks in the top 10th percentile of early freezes. Yep, dropped down to 31 IMBY. What a difference a day makes... woke up to 55 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Leaves rapidly falling. Hopefully we don't cool the lake too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Another "dud" of a hyped rainstorm. We had a few passing showers yesterday evening for about a third of inch. It looks like the east side had a bit more, but it sure has been one of the driest 30 day stretches in over a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Another "dud" of a hyped rainstorm. We had a few passing showers yesterday evening for about a third of inch. It looks like the east side had a bit more, but it sure has been one of the driest 30 day stretches in over a year. Picked up over .50" last night. Nothing impressive.The only impressive thing was how many leaves came down with the wind and rain. Trees are really dropping leaves quickly this year. I'd say one to two weeks ahead of schedule. Still alot of color out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 bad day to go to the beach at NE Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It was an interesting past 36 hours. Several thunderstorms developed and rode the coastline for a better part of the day. It appeared there was a lakeshore convergence set up yesterday. Some areas had 3" of rain and a few miles away, hardly a tenth. Even the night before had some slow moving cells that dropped close to an inch. The monthly precipitation totals for the month of October are going to be wildly variable over very small areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 Had a weak t'storm around 6:30 pm last night. Rainfall up to 2.80" IMBY for the month. The rain train continues on. Any "dryness" from the past few weeks is long gone. The ground is soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Looks like we are headed for yet again ...another rainy week. Sure wouldnt mind another dry period to cut the grass and pickup leaves soon. Cle mentions a good chance of lake effect rain this evening and tonight. Even a chance of snow mixing in nwpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 Now over 4.30" for the month. Enough of the rain already. Let's save some of this precip for the frozen stuff. So much for a dry fall. Won't be able to cut the grass again without a week or 2 of dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 A year ago today we had our first lake effect snow storm of the season. It began just after sunset and continued through most of the day on the 24th, with higher elevations of eastern Cuyahoga receiving around 8". I still think that's one of the more impressive early season snows, especially since even areas along the lakeshore had accumulating snow with lake temps in the mid 50s. Considering the amount of tree damage that caused, I'll pass on having any snow until the leaves are gone. The year prior to that featured the remnants of Sandy which had 80mph winds and over 48 consecutive hours of measurable precip at CLE at the end of October. Needless to say, the weather to end October this year looks rather benign at this point compared to the past few years. As for synoptic events, when's the last time we had 6" or more in early November that wasn't lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 A year ago today we had our first lake effect snow storm of the season. It began just after sunset and continued through most of the day on the 24th, with higher elevations of eastern Cuyahoga receiving around 8". I still think that's one of the more impressive early season snows, especially since even areas along the lakeshore had accumulating snow with lake temps in the mid 50s. Considering the amount of tree damage that caused, I'll pass on having any snow until the leaves are gone. The year prior to that featured the remnants of Sandy which had 80mph winds and over 48 consecutive hours of measurable precip at CLE at the end of October. Needless to say, the weather to end October this year looks rather benign at this point compared to the past few years. As for synoptic events, when's the last time we had 6" or more in early November that wasn't lake effect? I'm dubbing that the "warm ground snowstorm of 2013" because of several people (no one here) claiming the ground would be too warm to get snow to stick. It was an impressive early season event. http://www.newsnet5.com/weather/weather-photo-gallery/photo-galley-northeast-ohios-first-snowfall-of-the-season-1 I can't even remember an impressive early November synoptic snow, probably because we haven't had any in recent years. I remember impressive early November lake effect in 2010, but nothing really since then. The GFS has been showing a big (albeit brief) cool down next Friday-Saturday for many runs now, and now the 12z Euro is on board. I'll be home next weekend so I'm definitely hoping to see some flakes, even if they aren't significant. Although some better support from the ECM ensembles (like, just showing a trough over the Great Lakes in the mean) would be nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Just saw a video posted by JB on twitter. Not much surprise ...but has the majority of the county below normal temps. Also has from Cincy to the CLE area and eastward at 167% of normal snowfall. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Recent GFS and Euro runs have been in pretty good agreement in getting 850mb temps to around -10C into northern Ohio Friday night through Saturday with a NW to NNWish wind. It's a pretty quick cold shot and an early look at things doesn't show a lot of moisture, but some lake effect flakes appear to be a decent possibility this weekend. The only way I think we get anything of consequence is if the trough is slower and any storm that possibly develops over the NE develops farther west than currently shown and keeps us in a moist cyclonic flow a little longer...a few GFS and Euro ensemble members appear to show this, but I'd like to see the op runs trend that way over the next couple of days to give that scenario more weight. A better -NAO and slightly sharper western US ridge would be nice. I'll be home this weekend and just want to see snow, even if it's just some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well, the models have slowed the trough down a bit for Friday and Saturday. I'm officially "interested," and I'll be home for anything that happens to fall of the frozen variety. It's early in the season and fine details are still to be worked out, but recent trends are interesting for potentially some lake effect or enhanced snow Friday night into Saturday with a NW to N wind, depending on exactly how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well, the models have slowed the trough down a bit for Friday and Saturday. I'm officially "interested," and I'll be home for anything that happens to fall of the frozen variety. It's early in the season and fine details are still to be worked out, but recent trends are interesting for potentially some lake effect or enhanced snow Friday night into Saturday with a NW to N wind, depending on exactly how things play out. Yeah, the weekend looks interesting. We'll definitely see the first flakes of the year... whether they add up to much remains to be seen. Looks like a NNW flow event which generally isn't good for significant snows unless there's a connection to huron. But these early season LES events tend to have some surprises. The good news is that the leaves are almost completely down IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah, the weekend looks interesting. We'll definitely see the first flakes of the year... whether they add up to much remains to be seen. Looks like a NNW flow event which generally isn't good for significant snows unless there's a connection to huron. But these early season LES events tend to have some surprises. The good news is that the leaves are almost completely down IMBY. Yeah, I'd rather the winds not be NNW, although I guess that if anything would spread any wealth there is to be had. I think snow flakes in the air is pretty likely this weekend for most of us, but whether or not anything more happens will depend on a lot of things. The models for now (unless they trend right back later today) slow down the trough enough that we do have a bit of a window from some point Friday night through at least Saturday morning where it will be cold enough for snow, with high enough inversions and enough moisture to get some snow showers...although they probably wouldn't be particularly heavy, unless a Huron connection develops, so I agree with you there. There GFS and Euro last night really showed 2 ends of the possible spectrum IMO...the GFS was completely unphased with the vort max dropping into the Great Lakes and southern stream energy sliding off to the east, however it was still amplified enough with the trough that we'd probably get a little lake effect. That scenario might produce 1-3" in the hills in a small area if a Huron connection develops with little to none for most others, but it looks too dry above 800mb or so to get more on a NNW flow in that situation. The Euro phased the two pieces of energy and dropped a strong upper low way to our south, so much so that the Euro actually pulls in warm air from the east and has trouble changing the NE corner of the state to snow (while the rest of the state sees light synoptic snow Friday night). What ultimately happens will depend on how much the two pieces phase, which makes it a very uncertain forecast at this point. If the system phased a little later than the Euro showed, but more so than what the GFS is showing, it would probably be our best case scenario (we'd get cold enough for snow, and have some synoptic moisture hanging back through Friday night), and that might drop 1-2" type amounts in the higher terrain over a wider area with potentially 2-4" type amounts if a Huron connection happened to develop in that kind of situation. At this point I'd like to see another day of model runs to see which model blinks first...the GFS or Euro (or if they meet in the middle, which is my hope even if it's not the most likely scenario)...and also to make sure the models don't trend back the other way (more progressive altogether). I guess we can look at it like this: Pros: -Lake to 500mb temp differential of 40-45C shown on the GFS and NAM with high lake induced equilibrium levels (near 500mb on both models) -Lake to 850mb temp differentials of nearly 20C on both the GFS and NAM. The Euro is still cold enough for lake effect but not quite that cold. -850mb temps of -8C or colder on the GFS and NAM, which is colder than the -7C threshold I like using for early season accumulating LES. -Potential for a Huron connection -Potential for better synoptic moisture to stick around into Friday night depending on how quickly a potential storm develops to our east. Cons: -Short fetch -Potential to loose moisture above about 800mb pretty quickly if the more progressive solution wins out...which wouldn't mean no snow, but it would make it harder to see much of note with a short fetch. -High uncertainty with the evolution of a potential phase of the two pieces of energy involed in the trough on Friday and potential storm developing if a phase occurs. -Potential for temps to stay a little too warm if a storm wraps up really quickly like the 0z Euro showed -Lake temps in the mid to upper 50's will make it hard to get good accums outside of the higher terrain -Relatively short window for potential accumulating lake effect snow (12 to at most 24 hours) By this point tomorrow we'll be 2.5 days out from the "event", so we'll be able to perhaps start guessing what will happen with more certainty, assuming the models come into somewhat better agreement by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GFS, Canadian and NAM have all trended hard to the Euro for Friday-Saturday, which means unless we see things shift back east, we'll struggle to change to snow until Saturday morning, and by that point I doubt we'd get any real accums. If things are going to trend back east and more favorable for us, it has to happen with today's (Wednesday's) runs. Never doubt the Euro I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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