Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This one didn't track much farther north than expected and I'd say the changeover was only about an hour slower than modeled, but the dry slot killed everything when the "best rates" were supposed to be. When looking things over this kind of reminded me of the 12/26/12 storm with a window of insane snow shown on the models, but I was worried it wouldn't pan out which is why I took the "lower end" of the consensus. That occurred and then some. Picked up 3" at home (seems that was the magic number in Cuyahoga County) Yeah, this just fell flat like the Boxing Day 2012 storm. You can't really blame it on changeover. IMBY, changeover happened a little before 9am, that's pretty much as expected. Ouch: 0500 PM SNOW CLEVELAND HOPKINS AIRPO 41.41N 81.85W 03/12/2014 M2.3 INCH CUYAHOGA OH TRAINED SPOTTER 12 HOUR SNOWFALL. Looks like LES/Enhancement is fully underway. Strong winds are keeping things well inland, nothing going on in Lakewood right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Picked up 3" at home (seems that was the magic number in Cuyahoga County) Yeah, this just fell flat like the Boxing Day 2012 storm. You can't really blame it on changeover. IMBY, changeover happened a little before 9am, that's pretty much as expected. Ouch: 0500 PM SNOW CLEVELAND HOPKINS AIRPO 41.41N 81.85W 03/12/2014 M2.3 INCH CUYAHOGA OH TRAINED SPOTTER 12 HOUR SNOWFALL. Looks like LES/Enhancement is fully underway. Strong winds are keeping things well inland, nothing going on in Lakewood right now. It was definitely the dry slot that killed this one. The models were showing the heaviest snow late morning through mid-afternoon, and much of that time there were just flurries. The LES looks half decent but will probably start winding down by 8-9PM as drier air moves in. At least the Boxing Day storm still dropped 4-8" on most of us although was a far cry from the forecasts, and the blizzard warning didn't work out. CLE was close to verifying blizzard criteria today, and it sounds like the roads were bad for a time, but certainly not as bad as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Even with just 3" of snow, 50 mph winds are wreaking havoc on the interstates. West Shoreway is closed and the East Shoreway looks like this: Not surprising. This storm would have pushed all the frozen ice up to the shore. Any snow accumulating on the lake has free range for 100s of miles to blow right onto those lanes that parallel the coastline. Yikes ... it's pretty obvious to tell which side of the highway borders the lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It looks like the 700mb low tracked over Lake Erie and tried closing off. That's usually a good spot to look for how far north the dry slot will get (it usually gets to the 700mb low track despite what the models say...just like how it usually mixes to at least the 850mb low track despite what the models say). The models actually showed that half decently yesterday(they didn't close things off at 700mb but did show the attempt at a 700mb low tracking over Lake Erie). It all makes soo much sense now looking back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Appears that the lake effect yesterday evening gave more snow than the storm yesterday (for those in the secondary/primary snow belts it looked like 4" of LES fell). 3.9" total at CLE with 0.29" liquid equivalent snow + 0.28" rain for a total of 0.57". Had between 3-3.5" snow total. There was some residual lake effect after the storm that amounted to maybe a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'll go with a "storm total" of 5.3"... the majority was lake enhanced/LES snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ya the lake effect definitely delivered. I came up with 6", but there was alot of drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Ya the lake effect definitely delivered. I came up with 6", but there was alot of drifting. It was dumping yesterday evening. Honestly, I didn't do a great job of measuring so 6" is probably more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 About 4.5" in Mayfield Heights. Basically a 3-6" storm instead of a 6-10" storm. The highest elevations and snowbelts were just able to squeak out warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Anyone see the 6z NAM? 6-10" for much of Ohio. After the last bust to the north, can't help but think this will slide just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Anyone see the 6z NAM? 6-10" for much of Ohio. After the last bust to the north, can't help but think this will slide just to our south. Yeah, I noticed that. Odd to see the precip displaced so far to the north. Since we are on the NW fringe for a change... no doubt the last minute NW jog won't happen. Seems like if the storm is south of the river its stays down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Still a few snow patches hanging on surprisingly. Must have really been a glacier. Cle showing 1-2" for tomorrow night.... I'd rather spring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 After seeing all the records broken elsewhere in the Midwest from the other threads (and the east coast too) Northeast Ohio really missed an incredible opportunity for a historic winter. It wouldn't have taken much of a shift for several of the storms this season to make this winter extremely memorable. As it stands now, locally, this was a less intense version of winter 2008/09. Still a month left for some surprises to be thrown our way, but if winter ends today this won't be in any record books for Cleveland. Maybe a 2007 style April could change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Sort of amazing that some LES is continuing, even with the heart of high pressure extending from eastern IA to southeast OH. Most models yesterday showed it becoming much too dry for any snow today, although RAP forecast soundings do show that it's moist enough. Even looks like some half decent bursts in NE Cuyahoga County right now. Tomorrow could be half decent (considering it's almost April)...if surface temps can get into the mid 30's in the late morning/early afternoon, there would be enough instability for a decent snow squall and possibly thunder along the cold front that will pass during the afternoon. Temps aloft then become cold enough for some LES by evening with decent moisture hanging around for a few hours, so maybe the Snowbelt can squeeze like 2-3" out of the whole deal, with maybe a dusting elsewhere if a quick squall can develop along the cold front. I do find it interesting that even though Cleveland is arguably a regional snow hole this winter, and has been just missed several times, that they'll finish comfortably above average for seasonal snowfall (and could just as easily pass 80" if a system or two drops a dusting over the next few weeks). It seemed like every small system/marginal LES setup overperformed to an extent this winter, while all of the potential big dogs busted. Our bread and butter is definitely LES and smaller clipper type systems, so if those categories do well then the seasonal snowfall will probably end up in half decent shape. Even though there weren't any huge LES events (although we did have the rare October event), there were many few inches here, few inches there type deals, and many of them were overperformers, which kept things interesting, even with the lack of a big dog. No signs of April 2007 repeats on the models any time soon. I'll probably be home the weekend before Easter. One last LES event that drops a few inches is more than welcome that weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Sort of amazing that some LES is continuing, even with the heart of high pressure extending from eastern IA to southeast OH. Most models yesterday showed it becoming much too dry for any snow today, although RAP forecast soundings do show that it's moist enough. Even looks like some half decent bursts in NE Cuyahoga County right now. Tomorrow could be half decent (considering it's almost April)...if surface temps can get into the mid 30's in the late morning/early afternoon, there would be enough instability for a decent snow squall and possibly thunder along the cold front that will pass during the afternoon. Temps aloft then become cold enough for some LES by evening with decent moisture hanging around for a few hours, so maybe the Snowbelt can squeeze like 2-3" out of the whole deal, with maybe a dusting elsewhere if a quick squall can develop along the cold front. I do find it interesting that even though Cleveland is arguably a regional snow hole this winter, and has been just missed several times, that they'll finish comfortably above average for seasonal snowfall (and could just as easily pass 80" if a system or two drops a dusting over the next few weeks). It seemed like every small system/marginal LES setup overperformed to an extent this winter, while all of the potential big dogs busted. Our bread and butter is definitely LES and smaller clipper type systems, so if those categories do well then the seasonal snowfall will probably end up in half decent shape. Even though there weren't any huge LES events (although we did have the rare October event), there were many few inches here, few inches there type deals, and many of them were overperformers, which kept things interesting, even with the lack of a big dog. No signs of April 2007 repeats on the models any time soon. I'll probably be home the weekend before Easter. One last LES event that drops a few inches is more than welcome that weekend It snowed off and on all day yesterday on the west side, the ground was briefly coated - and yes CLE even picked up 0.3". I even had to brush snow off my car this morning. Today there were some decent squalls on the east side, quickly coating roof tops as visibilities dropped to about a half mile, and then melting just as quickly afterwards. As of right now this winter will finish comfortably above average for CLE. It was a decent winter if you don't compare it to what happened elsewhere. CLE is at 77", normal is 68", so that's about 113% of normal this season. Nothing historic in terms of seasonal snowfalls or snowstorms. There wasn't any synoptic storms that "defined" this winter. There were a lot of generic 4-6" events that blurred together. Yet, look at Toledo, 85" of snow this season, well over 200% of normal. Detroit, 91", well over 200% of normal. Columbus, 54", ~180% of normal. Chicago, 80", over 200% of normal. Indianapolis, 55", over 200% of normal. When you compare CLE's total to the amazing records smashed elsewhere in the midwest, this winter was a complete waste of a potential. To put the historic seasonal snowfall in perspective, If CLE's seasonal % of normal were on par with most other major climate stations in region, CLE would be sitting at about 135", now that would be noteworthy. But of course, that's taking the glass half empty approach. It was nice to have continual snow this winter and relatively decent snowpack. A slightly above normal snowfall is just that ... above normal. It may not be historic, but at least it wasn't like 2011/12 or 2012/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Had pretty heavy snow rates for a while. Guess 1" in the grass. Still sowing lightly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Radar looks good for the Cleveland metro...someone may actually walk away with like 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Radar looks good for the Cleveland metro...someone may actually walk away with like 4". Ya its coming down pretty hard here. Radar looked kind of cellular. Do you think a band will form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Ya its coming down pretty hard here. Radar looked kind of cellular. Do you think a band will form?I'm not sure if one true intense band will form, but there are a couple of bands extending past Detroit and some moisture from Lake Huron getting involved so at the least I'd expect decent bursts to continue for at least a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Looks like a pretty decent band has formed into parts of Lorain, Medina and western Summit Counties, with pretty consistent 30+ dBZ returns. Still some moderate bursts elsewhere. I'm sure everyone except Trent will wake up to at least a couple more inches, the lakeshore hasn't gotten a ton in Cuyahoga. Based on how things have gone this year I'm sure it will still be snowing well past sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 3.1" overnight - looking and feeling (a balmy 7 degrees) pretty wintry out there. Had a little under 2" on Monday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Yeah. I had 1.1" total from yesterday afternoon through this morning. Mayfield Heights with about 3" and now 128" for the season. That's 50" more than CLE and in the same county. Amazing what a little upsloping can do in a few short miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 Ya its coming down pretty hard here. Radar looked kind of cellular. Do you think a band will form? How much snow fell out our way? I'm out of town. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 How much snow fell out our way? I'm out of town. Thanks I didn't get a chance to measure this morning, but I'd say 3" sounds right. Looks like a little more fell in Solon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 I didn't get a chance to measure this morning, but I'd say 3" sounds right. Looks like a little more fell in Solon. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Pretty solid little event for the secondary Snowbelt. After being screwed all winter the secondary belt finally does well in the last week of March ...ASHTABULA COUNTY...JEFFERSON 1.0 631 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERGENEVA 0.6 725 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERASHTABULA 1SW 0.2 925 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...CRAWFORD COUNTY...NEW WASHINGTON 5S T 929 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...CUYAHOGA COUNTY...NORTH ROYALTON 4.5 652 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERSOLON 4.2 721 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERBEREA 3.8 806 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERBROADVIEW HTS 3.0 659 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERGARFIELD HTS 2.0 702 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERCLEVELAND-OLD BROOKL 1.0 652 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...GEAUGA COUNTY...MONTVILLE 2.2 530 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERCHARDON 2N 2.0 744 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERCHARDON 1.3 835 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERTHOMPSON 5SW 1.1 835 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...HURON COUNTY...NEW LONDON 3NW 1.7 606 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERBERLIN HTS 3SW 1.0 701 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...LAKE COUNTY...MENTOR 1.2 751 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERPERRY TOWNSHIP 1.0 748 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...LORAIN COUNTY...ELYRIA 1.9 657 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERLORAIN 3S 1.0 928 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...MEDINA COUNTY...BRUNSWICK 5.4 928 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERWADSWORTH 2.5 753 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERLODI 1.2 939 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...PORTAGE COUNTY...HIRAM 1.0 927 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...RICHLAND COUNTY...MANSFIELD/ONTARIO 0.8 914 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...STARK COUNTY...ALLIANCE 2.0 703 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...SUMMIT COUNTY...STOW 4.5 800 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERAKRON W SIDE 4.0 618 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERSAGAMORE HILLS 3.0 801 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERTALLMADGE 2.0 926 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERCUYAHOGA FALLS 1.8 924 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERCLINTON 1.0 716 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...TRUMBULL COUNTY...NEWTON FALLS 2.2 746 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERMESOPOTAMIA 1.5 837 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERWARREN 0.5 643 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER...WAYNE COUNTY...DALTON 3.0 949 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERDOYLESTOWN 2.0 750 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTERKIDRON 1N 1.5 948 AM 3/26 SNOW SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Nice to wake up and see that the NAM shows 8.8" of snow here on Saturday! I'm going to go out on a limb and say that doesn't happen ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Do you guys think it will snow in central or northeast Ohio on Saturday? I am seeing the GFS with a section of 8" over by Dayton and 1000-850mb thicknesses below 1300m to support that. I think it's going to be a hard call as to where (or if) any snow over 2" falls in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Nice to wake up and see that the NAM shows 8.8" of snow here on Saturday! I'm going to go out on a limb and say that doesn't happen ... And then the next 3 runs of the NAM shift way SE. But the 12Z and 18Z GFS runs look like they're still willing to play ball. Not sure what to think about this one. We've got a large high to the north trying to suppress the wave, we've got really borderline boundary layer temps and we've got a precip shield that looks like it's coming through during the warmest part of the day. But, other than that, the setup looks ideal! I don't know, I'm just not really feeling this one. I suppose some inland areas across NE and north central OH could cash in a few inches, especially over higher terrain. But up here by the lakeshore, I'm thinking we'll be lucky to get more than a slushy coating on grassy surfaces and car tops. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Yeah, I think I agree with that thinking vpbob. There will be a very narrow zone where it may precipitate decently and be cold enough for snow, but it's all so marginal and fast moving that I can't see anyone picking up more than a few inches if they're lucky. I think this is realistically a shot of rain and snow in Cleveland Saturday for several hours with little to no accum, but we'll see if it can surprise at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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