NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Snowing in Chagrin... the ground and roads are covered. Looks like an hour or two of decent snow ahead before the defo swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 We are going to struggle to hit 6". We'll see what the deform band does when it swings through. While it was definitely moderate snow with the band that just swung through, the radar's bark was worse than its bite. How much farther NW did the surface and 850 low go compared to yesterday's consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The lows look maybe 20 miles farther north and the surface low is running stronger than most models had which evidently made a difference. Traffic cams look like about 2" or so fell on the west side with the first band. The deform looks impressive on radar but it remains to be seen how quickly it moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The lows look maybe 20 miles farther north and the surface low is running stronger than most models had which evidently made a difference. Traffic cams look like about 2" or so fell on the west side with the first band. The deform looks impressive on radar but it remains to be seen how quickly it moves through. I guess I shouldn't have joked, "what could go wrong?" Ouch. I wish I hadn't invested a week tracking this. Maybe that deform can over perform when it swings through and some les/enhancement can pop. CLE did report a snincr1/1 for the hour before noon. They probably picked up 1.3" for the first round. At this point, if CLE can salvage 4" out of this I'd be impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Light snow now and pretty windy. Maybe an inch or a little more so far in Solon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Something better get started or its going to be a flop... All i'm hearing or seeing is that the back end should be "intensifying", so that remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro sniffed this storm out quite a while back! Will be fun to see how this pans out. But what are the odds after 8 days of model watching we get 2" of slop? Bump. We shoiuld just have a rule that the odds of a significant storm around here is 25% or less... regardless of what models show. About an inch or so of slop. I'll say 2-3" will do it for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The deform band is impressive. Radar returns are starting to light up. However, this isn't going to be a band that dumps 5-8" in a few hours. Euro is/was crap. SREF plumes are a joke. NW trend always lives on for lows progged just to the north of the Ohio River. If we are progged to be on the far NW side of a snow shield, the SE trend will prevail. You wouldn't think it'd be that hard to have a widespread swath of 6"+ between US30 and Lake Erie in Ohio, but it's been years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Bump. We shoiuld just have a rule that the odds of a significant storm around here is 25% or less... regardless of what models show. I will put my expectations to 6". Only. ...because last time you lowered yours. .we ended up with a decent storm haha. About an inch or so of slop. I'll say 2-3" will do it for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'd have to think temperatures getting 10 degrees warmer than modeled across the region yesterday hurt too. Models have been/still are running too cold across most of the region. The dry slot got 50+ miles north of what every model showed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Bump. We shoiuld just have a rule that the odds of a significant storm around here is 25% or less... regardless of what models show. I will put my expectations to 6". Only. ...because last time you lowered yours. .we ended up with a decent storm haha. About an inch or so of slop. I'll say 2-3" will do it for the event. My reverse juju probably won't work this time unfortunately. Looks like an hour or two of moderate snow to come with the defo. 3" will be a stretch. What's hilarious is that schools are closed... local news stations are scattered through the city reporting on the "storm". The only thing that will slow my commute home is if I stop at a local watering hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'd have to think temperatures getting 10 degrees warmer than modeled across the region yesterday hurt too. Models have been/still are running too cold across most of the region. The dry slot got 50+ miles north of what every model showed as well. When I saw temps going up that high yesterday, I was concerned about a general northward shift of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Lol you're probably right neoh, I will hold out hope a little. Updated wsw lowered totals from 6-10 to 4-8. Still seems high. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's truly comical. How is it that nearly every predicted storm this winter has been a bust? You always hear the joke about the weatherman never being right, but you can use scientific evidence this winter to say that 80% of winter storm warnings did not verify. The largest storms this season have been unwarned. The best advisory type snows never had an advisory, and those with an advisory either didn't need one because the totals were too low or should have been a warning. It really is amazing. Every week it's beating the same dead horse with every snow event here. Local mets and the NWS guys must just want spring to arrive after the forecasting mess of 2013-14. Computer models are useless for winter weather in northeast Ohio; they can't forecast LES accurately and they have a synoptic bias towards more QPF. It's been the case with the vast majority of synoptic storms the past few years; the snowfall is supposed to snow 1"+ rates for 6 hours with less intense rates afterwards. What really happens is the precip moves much faster, inch per hour rates last maybe 2 hours, toss in a dry slot, and then much less intense wrap around snows. Wash, rinse, repeat. I need to keep this in mind for the next synoptic storm. Even if all model guidance says 8"+, just go with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's truly comical. How is it that nearly every predicted storm this winter has been a bust? You always hear the joke about the weatherman never being right, but you can use scientific evidence this winter to say that 80% of winter storm warnings did not verify. The largest storms this season have been unwarned. The best advisory type snows never had an advisory, and those with an advisory either didn't need one because the totals were too low or should have been a warning. It really is amazing. Every week it's beating the same dead horse with every snow event here. Local mets and the NWS guys must just want spring to arrive after the forecasting mess of 2013-14. Computer models are useless for winter weather in northeast Ohio; they can't forecast LES accurately and they have a synoptic bias towards more QPF. It's been the case with the vast majority of synoptic storms the past few years; the snowfall is supposed to snow 1"+ rates for 6 hours with less intense rates afterwards. What really happens is the precip moves much faster, inch per hour rates last maybe 2 hours, toss in a dry slot, and then much less intense wrap around snows. Wash, rinse, repeat. I need to keep this in mind for the next synoptic storm. Even if all model guidance says 8"+, just go with 2-4". Couldn't have said it better Trent. Spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Spot on Trent! On the plus side. .does seem like more yellows are popping up in the band as it nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Don't forget some of those storms peter out because of East Coast storm development stealing all the energy & moisture...For this year, though been frustrating as we nickel and dime our way to totals while the big snows miss us to the north, south, east, west, etc...Hopefully 2014-2015 will produce bigger snows or at least, decent LES events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Consolation prize ... Deform band won't disappoint. Should hopefully be able to get 2" out of it for a 3" storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 O ya, its ripping pretty good out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ripping in Chagrin... close to a whiteout. Flake size finally increased as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ripping in Chagrin... close to a whiteout. Flake size finally increased as well. Ripping over here in Solon...wind is really up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ripping over here in Solon...wind is really up!! So this is what a snow storm looks like!? 6 more hours and we'll the forecast totals . Enjoy it while it lasts... might the heaviest snow we see until next winter (or October in the LES belt) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 So this is what a snow storm looks like!? 6 more hours and we'll the forecast totals . Enjoy it while it lasts... might the heaviest snow we see until next winter (or October in the LES belt) I was fully expecting that type of snow from about 8am - 3pm today. At least we got an hour's worth of it. Back side quickly approaching and the rates drop off considerably. Still a lot of wind, so there'll be low visibilities continuing without much new accumulation this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 So this is what a snow storm looks like!? 6 more hours and we'll the forecast totals . Enjoy it while it lasts... might the heaviest snow we see until next winter (or October in the LES belt) This is very true. Euro shows another heavy storm in our area about a week from now. Will it verify?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 I was fully expecting that type of snow from about 8am - 3pm today. At least we got an hour's worth of it. Back side quickly approaching and the rates drop off considerably. Still a lot of wind, so there'll be low visibilities continuing without much new accumulation this evening. Same here. We'll probably see the usual "green blob" snows left over as the defo moves east. Might make a run at the higher end of 2-4" if it doesn't dry up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 This is very true. Euro shows another heavy storm in our area about a week from now. Will it verify?? Lol... enough already. We've had the ball pulled away from us so many times my arse will never be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Lol... enough already. We've had the ball pulled away from us so many times my arse will never be the same. For the rest of this winter, something tells me that no matter how the storm forms, how the storm develops and what the models say, the end result will be the same...an underperformer. This is just NOT our year for storms...neither the past couple of winters for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 And radar shows it pretty much done on the west side. If the METAR observations are correct, looks like CLE picked up 0.48" liquid equivalent. I have a feeling that might be a tenth too low, so we'll see at midnight what the final tally is. But so far that's 0.28" rain 0.20" snow - liquid equivalent So we got less than half of the precipitation that most models were showing yesterday. Even though we got more snow to add to the totals this winter, I will probably lower my grade for this season. To have a major storm consistently shown for 8-9 days straight and have it crap out in the end is torture. I'll guess that the official measurement comes in around 2.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 This is one of those days where if you looked the radar, you would guess a lot more than 2-4" fell. It's frustrating when the model consensus is literally 10"+ a day out, you forecast 6-10", and it all falls short. I can't really blame the NWS or media for this one considering what all the data said (considering I went 6-10" as well, I can't criticize) although channel 19's 9-15" was a bit ludicrous. Cleveland's "bad luck" with synoptic storms didn't seem to be an issue for the snowy 2000's and 2010-2011, most storms seemed to perform close to as expected. This one didn't track much farther north than expected and I'd say the changeover was only about an hour slower than modeled, but the dry slot killed everything when the "best rates" were supposed to be. When looking things over this kind of reminded me of the 12/26/12 storm with a window of insane snow shown on the models, but I was worried it wouldn't pan out which is why I took the "lower end" of the consensus. That occurred and then some. It seems like a given storm either doesn't phase and slides off to the south, or does phase and cuts farther NW, at least lately. Lake effect/enhancment and 1-3/2-4" clippers are definitely the bread and butter of Northern Ohio snowfall, with usually at least one 6"+ synoptic storm thrown in a winter (and we did do that twice this year). Maybe next week will pan out My total in Athens thus far is 2 snow flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Still snowing pretty good, quite windy too. Is this les? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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