dta1984 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Do you still have snow on the ground? I'm surprised there's still a decent amount IMBY despite the warm temps yesteray and today. Ya there is definitely still some snow out there. Surprising with as warm as its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Ya there is definitely still some snow out there. Surprising with as warm as its been. Haven't been home yet today but I'm sure it is taking a hit with the higher dewpoint and mid 50's. Still a surprising amount around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 So it appears we've got NAM, euro, and GFS all showing 10" for CLE. What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 So it appears we've got NAM, euro, and GFS all showing 10" for CLE. What could possibly go wrong? Don't ask. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Obviously the NAM went big for Toledo. I alerted my parents and my aunt in Fort Wayne that this could mean 10-12" of snow with drifting (blizzard). what do you guys think for Canton? will there be a serious ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm a little concerned about how warm its gotten...mid50s to near 60. I wonder if the warmer than forecast temps will delay the changeover from rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Obviously the NAM went big for Toledo. I alerted my parents and my aunt in Fort Wayne that this could mean 10-12" of snow with drifting (blizzard). what do you guys think for Canton? will there be a serious ice storm? I'm leaning no serious ice storm. It looks like the mid-level freezing line may stall for a few hours south of Lake Erie in the mid morning as the mid-level low goes by, but after that it looks to crash south pretty quickly. I could see a narrow corridor near or just north of US 30 getting a tenth to two tenths of zr accretion, but I don't think there will be more. The NAM soundings kind of looked more sleety than anything else for a time in the morning away from the lake which may help minimize the zr risk. Here's a NAM sounding from near CAK for 15z tomorrow...the warm layer isn't that warm but is pretty deep and may not fully melt snowflakes...it's really a borderline zr/ip sounding. I'll post my map and explanation in a few (may as well post it before it starts snowing)...I have CLE and most areas within 20-30 miles of Lake Erie in 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Temp dropped 15 degrees in 10 minutes when lake breeze kicked in. Hoping for another lakeshore special with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Temp dropped 15 degrees in 10 minutes when lake breeze kicked in. Hoping for another lakeshore special with this one. I see cleveland dropped to 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I’ve had this sketched on my computer for a day, but have been too busy with class and arguing with others about how much/little the lakeshore would get to post it The NAM/SREF today trended less phased and thus farther south with the storm and close to the rather persistent GFS/Euro runs. This has alleviated concerns over a prolonged period of rain/mixed precip significantly cutting into snow totals. There appears to be about a two windows for heavy snow tomorrow morning into the afternoon of initially decent overrunning precip, and then deformation snows where things may be heavy with 1”+ per hour rates. The NAM shows a very tight mid-level theta-e gradient right overhead tomorrow morning into the afternoon, with a 50kt mid-level jet feeding moist air into this area of good mid-level frontogenesis. This could cause heavy rates for a time in the morning. Very strong CAA and a decent deformation zone with good lift into the DGZ, combined with northerly winds off the lake should then cause moderate snow (with better ratios) to persist through the afternoon. Lake effect conditions remain half decent into the evening before things dry out significantly, which should end significant snow by around midnight. Given the potential for several hours of near 1” per hour rates, and then several hours of lighter, but still perhaps half decent LES in the evening, and most models spitting out .5-1” of frozen QPF, 6-10” seems reasonable. Given ratios tomorrow afternoon and evening will be higher than 10:1, an argument can be made for possibly more…however, considering the window for heavy WAA snows will only be a few hours, and the deformation snows will likely be more moderate with significant blowing, I’m not sure there will be enough heavy snow in about a 12 hour window to get more than 10”. It’s possible, but we’ve seen these short heavy snow situations disappoint before. With 925mb winds of 40+ knots for much of the day, surface wind gusts of near 35MPH inland and near 45MPH near Lake Erie will be pretty likely. I agree with CLE not issuing blizzard warnings right now, because the heavy burst of WAA snow in the morning may not keep visibilities below ¼ of a mile for 3 consecutive hours. The deformation/lake enhancement in the afternoon has the potential to potentially pull it off if it doesn’t disappoint, especially given improving ratios through the afternoon, but it’s marginal and right now I wouldn’t go with a blizzard warning. There will be a sharp cut off to the snow southeast of Cuyahoga County due to the 850mb low tracking near Youngstown and holding up the progress of the rain/snow line for a few hours tomorrow morning…however, every model keeps the 850mb low well south of Cleveland, so I think they’ll change to snow as modeled in the morning. The warm temps today shouldn’t make a huge difference as cold, northerly winds blow in off of the expansive snow cover to our north and mainly frozen Lake Erie. There could be a narrow corridor of sleet/zr for a few hours SE of Cleveland, but right now the zr doesn’t look to last long enough to cause big issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nice write up ohweather. Should be an impressive late winter storm. 6-10 seems about right. I really hope we make it to the higher range of that. Can't wait to watch it unfold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 I’ve had this sketched on my computer for a day, but have been too busy with class and arguing with others about how much/little the lakeshore would get to post it The NAM/SREF today trended less phased and thus farther south with the storm and close to the rather persistent GFS/Euro runs. This has alleviated concerns over a prolonged period of rain/mixed precip significantly cutting into snow totals. There appears to be about a two windows for heavy snow tomorrow morning into the afternoon of initially decent overrunning precip, and then deformation snows where things may be heavy with 1”+ per hour rates. The NAM shows a very tight mid-level theta-e gradient right overhead tomorrow morning into the afternoon, with a 50kt mid-level jet feeding moist air into this area of good mid-level frontogenesis. This could cause heavy rates for a time in the morning. Very strong CAA and a decent deformation zone with good lift into the DGZ, combined with northerly winds off the lake should then cause moderate snow (with better ratios) to persist through the afternoon. Lake effect conditions remain half decent into the evening before things dry out significantly, which should end significant snow by around midnight. Given the potential for several hours of near 1” per hour rates, and then several hours of lighter, but still perhaps half decent LES in the evening, and most models spitting out .5-1” of frozen QPF, 6-10” seems reasonable. Given ratios tomorrow afternoon and evening will be higher than 10:1, an argument can be made for possibly more…however, considering the window for heavy WAA snows will only be a few hours, and the deformation snows will likely be more moderate with significant blowing, I’m not sure there will be enough heavy snow in about a 12 hour window to get more than 10”. It’s possible, but we’ve seen these short heavy snow situations disappoint before. With 925mb winds of 40+ knots for much of the day, surface wind gusts of near 35MPH inland and near 45MPH near Lake Erie will be pretty likely. I agree with CLE not issuing blizzard warnings right now, because the heavy burst of WAA snow in the morning may not keep visibilities below ¼ of a mile for 3 consecutive hours. The deformation/lake enhancement in the afternoon has the potential to potentially pull it off if it doesn’t disappoint, especially given improving ratios through the afternoon, but it’s marginal and right now I wouldn’t go with a blizzard warning. There will be a sharp cut off to the snow southeast of Cuyahoga County due to the 850mb low tracking near Youngstown and holding up the progress of the rain/snow line for a few hours tomorrow morning…however, every model keeps the 850mb low well south of Cleveland, so I think they’ll change to snow as modeled in the morning. The warm temps today shouldn’t make a huge difference as cold, northerly winds blow in off of the expansive snow cover to our north and mainly frozen Lake Erie. There could be a narrow corridor of sleet/zr for a few hours SE of Cleveland, but right now the zr doesn’t look to last long enough to cause big issues. Nice write-up and forecast... as usual. 6-10" seems like a good bet. Hopefully the defo band and some added lake enhancement come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I like the 6-10" call as well. I think it's way too easy to get caught up in QPF frenzy by the models. Look at how many times this burns us in the past. We'll probably have inch per hour rates between 9am and 1pm. So that's about 4" if we can sustain that. Then rates should lighten up (as winds increase will ratios matter?). So perhaps another 2-3" on top of that. Then maybe another 1-2" of any residual lake effect flare ups. But, if we are taking a guess for what CLE will actually record as official ... then you'll need to claim the standard deduction of 3" on the snow board. With that said, achieving 8" of snow in the "surprise" late February event wasn't too hard, so there's always that possibility of an over performer. But if by 8pm tomorrow most of the region only has 4-5" of a wind swept snow, I would not be shocked either. And regarding blizzard warnings ... even if accumulations don't pan out as high as forecasted, it won't take much for BKL to record official blizzard criteria tomorrow. With a partially frozen lake, the wind should have no problem maintaining 3 hours at 35mph+. Northerly winds should also be able to push the ice to the shore, allow it to accumulate, and then blow considerably around the lakeshore. I think BKL might be able to squeeze out 3 hours of blizzard criteria tomorrow. IIRC, the New Year's winter weather advisory briefly produced marginal blizzard warning criteria at BKL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 And the 00z NAM comes in with about a foot for everyone along the lakeshore between Sandusky to Ashtabula. Overdone? Probably. Still nice to see that the bullseye is over northern Ohio for the Midwest, even if that high of QPF isn't attained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Anyone seeing snow yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 34 and rain. Have had a few sleet pellets mixed in with the heavier showers. Rain/snow line seems to be around Sandusky at this point. Google traffic is a pretty good indicator of where it's snowing as you can see where traffic speeds slow down, ie snow covered roads. Switchover is progged to begin around 9 for CLE. I'm sure many getting up for work now think this storm is a bust, but I can imagine by noon things will look completely different. I'm slightly concerned that this is trending a little more NW (are we really surprised?) so that the best deform snows will once again be around Toledo, with a dry slot sneaking into northeast Ohio. SREF plumes once again laughable with a cluster around 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I can imagine when it does change over it is going to be quite heavy. Should definitely be fun to watch. CLE liking lake effect and enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ya just rain here so far. Hoping we can change over in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 33 and rain/sleet mix now. We have already burned 0.2" of QPF on rain. I'm looking forward to the 1"+ per hour rates starting soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Ripping out there... with 36 and heavy rain It's going to take one heck of a defo band to come close to the forecasted storm totals. We always talk about what could go wrong with a storm... and it appears this storm is tracking a little more NW than forecast, slower turnover, lots of precip wasted on rain, and dry slot moving in. Not calling a bust yet... but the trends can't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Looks like the rain/snow line is starting to push onshore. The changeover is an hour or two slower than expected, although it looks like cold is coming in behind the line of showers/storms approaching Mansfield. The deform snows over IN look decent but the top end of the forecast (9-10") is probably out of play. I could still see 6" or so, especially if there's lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 In garfield heights, 35 and rain. It's going to have to be putting down some serious snowfall rates... wouldn't put it past this storm though seeing the way it is raining.... break in the action soon and then we will get going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Fwiw, the RAP only has about 0.35" for northeast Ohio (closer to 0.45" for Ashtabula) once the changeover occurs. Radar trends look like the dry slot should just barely miss Cleveland to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Fwiw, the RAP only has about 0.35" for northeast Ohio (closer to 0.45" for Ashtabula) once the changeover occurs. Radar trends look like the dry slot should just barely miss Cleveland to the southeast. Wonder if 2-4" might be it for the area at this point. The slight shift NW really put a dent in things. Central lake erie might be the big winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Burke was reporting snow for the 9AM ob and the dual pole correlation coefficient product suggests the rain/snow line is pushing into western Cuyahoga County from the west...lets see how long it takes to changeover on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I think you guys are good...looking at traffic cams...it's snowing at 271 and 90...most of northern Cuyahoga and western Cuyahoga Counties...and LPR and CLE are reporting 3/4SM visibilities, with some traffic cams indicating even less than that with accumulations starting. Despite the radar not looking good in NW OH, every reporting station north of Lima is reporting 1/4 mile or less visiblities, with some visibilities that low extending well back into IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Appears to have flipped to snow now. .or at least mixing in. 10" here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Park I work at right along the lakeshore (just west of the cit of Erie) started with snow right about 8am - when I left about 1/2 hour ago, 2" so far, 31 degrees w/ heavy wet snow, big flakes. I had to come back 16 miles south toward MBY...32 degrees, rain and not a single flake. Indulge a little rant...can we move onto spring. Every synoptic event is either up and away or down an in (to use a baseball analogy as the season approaches). Erie is going to try to sniff an all time seasonal snowfall record and my house 16 miles south more than likely won't even reach our seasonal average! MBY is truly geographically neutered for synoptic events:( End rant, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Definitely +SN out my way with visibility probably around 1/8 mile. We've had snow since around 6:30 and are approaching 4". No thunder observed. Unfortunately looks like the dry slot is closing in and will slow things down for a bit until that deform snow wraps in. Waiting for Erie Co. to declare a level 3 (currently level 2) so I can go home from work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Finally snowing here in Garfield heights. It's heavy but a little rain still may be mixing in. Better start ripping if we are gonna touch forecasted totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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