Trent Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 271 was starting to get pretty bad this morning with increasing intensity snow. I think the big take away from this winter is that high resolution model guidance is still pretty bad for northern Ohio with regards to lake effect. It seems that model guidance has had no problem sniffing out northern Indiana lake effect plumes and even Chicago LES. The Tug Hill bands and southwest flow Buffalo bands are also modeled quite well, but northern Ohio lake effect is just not modeled correctly. The BUF WRF models have been worthless here this winter. It's too bad we didn't have a really good meteorology school in the region, I feel like a lot could be learned from looking back at 10 years worth of LES events and creating a model exclusively for this region. It's still kind of cool to live in a place where you can go to bed and get 6-10" that wasn't forecasted or go to work with no snow in the forecast and leave with 5" on your car, but it plays havoc on travel/commutes/economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And boom! Another disaster rush hour. Burke airport reporting heavy snow, quarter mile visibilities and 40 mph winds. Radar is pretty intense over the entire metro region. We'll see how this transitions once winds go more northwesterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ya moderate snow and winds at home. Much lighter here in Solon, but looks to be coming this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And boom! Another disaster rush hour. Burke airport reporting heavy snow, quarter mile visibilities and 40 mph winds. Radar is pretty intense over the entire metro region. We'll see how this transitions once winds go more northwesterly. The trough axis just hit northern Lake Erie. I think once the winds go NW and you guys loose the benefit of convergence along the shoreline in a couple of hours things will start to shift inland an weaken. It looks really intense now on almost every traffic cam in Lorain and Cuyahoga counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow... absolute whiteout in Chagrin with that band. Impressive stuff. Wouldn't it be nice for the trough to get hung up along the lakeshore for a few hours. Visbility is 100 yards at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Wow... absolute whiteout in Chagrin with that band. Impressive stuff. Wouldn't it be nice for the trough to get hung up along the lakeshore for a few hours. Visbility is 100 yards at best. You beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 I could care less whether CLE issues advisories or not... but today is probably a case where one was needed considering the high winds and blowing snow. Looks like we'll get one more band to push through with the arctic front. Not sure how much fell earlier, 2-3"? Winds are howling so it's impossible to tell. Just noticed this in CLE's AFD... ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE THAT SNOW WITH THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF FRI NIGHT OR SAT MORNING.THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO PERIODS OF SNOW...THE FIRST WITH THE COLD FRONT THEN MAYBE A BRIEF BREAK LATER SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE SECOND BATCH OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AS THE UPPER FLOW AND A DEVELOPING WAVEOF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES AN OVERRUNNING SET UP SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. THIS ROUND OF SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW.SAT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS HIGHS ACTUALLY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. MORE COLD AND WELL BELOW TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND PROBABLY MOST OF THE MONTH OF MARCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Heavy snow again. Looks like a nice band stretching from downtown south and east. Cle had 2-4 in the forecast this morning...should make that easy. I like where we sit with the weekend storm. Still a good storm, but the higher totals are a little south. Just need a nudge north the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Heavy snow again. Looks like a nice band stretching from downtown south and east. Cle had 2-4 in the forecast this morning...should make that easy. I like where we sit with the weekend storm. Still a good storm, but the higher totals are a little south. Just need a nudge north the next few days. Looks like we'll have a few more hours of snow as the band extends pretty far to the NW. 2-4" should be no problem. I'd say at least 2" has fallen already. Yep, we have some wiggle room for a northern shift for a change with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 KCLE 271656Z COR 33017G32KT 1/16SM +SN BLSN BKN010 BKN024 OVC034 M11/M14 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 33026/1652 DRSN P0000 T11111144 $ 1/16 mile visibility and gusting to 32 knots. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So what are the odds that Athens gets more snow than northern Ohio for the upcoming storm?I don't think I could stomach a miss to the south considering all the misses here that have rocked Toledo and points NW this season.Also looks like CLE has a good shot at breaking a record low tonight of 0, which happens to be the warmest record low in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So what are the odds that Athens gets more snow than northern Ohio for the upcoming storm? I don't think I could stomach a miss to the south considering all the misses that have rocked Toledo and points NW this season. Also looks like CLE has a good shot at breaking a record low tonight of 0, which happens to be the warmest record low in February. I think the odds are good. Models keep trending south. If the trend keeps up, KY & southern OH will get the heavy snows while we get nothing more than a virga storm. Let's hope the trend starts inching north, but not too far north. As I have said, these past three winters just aren't our winters as far as good snowstorms are concerned. Hopefully this storm will break our 3 year losing streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So what are the odds that Athens gets more snow than northern Ohio for the upcoming storm? I don't think I could stomach a miss to the south considering all the misses here that have rocked Toledo and points NW this season. Also looks like CLE has a good shot at breaking a record low tonight of 0, which happens to be the warmest record low in February. I'll be in Cleveland starting late tomorrow (Friday) for a week for "spring break"...so I'm hoping we can beat Athens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hopefully you bring us some good luck ohweather. Seems the past few times we have been in the bullseye this far out there has been last minute shifts. Maybe the shift can be in our favor this time. If it doesn't, I can't complain. The lake effect this week has been great. Hard to measure what fell today with the wind. 3-4" seems right from several measurements .. That would bring the week total to around 8-10" Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not sure you want "Athens luck" up there when it comes to snow...although we've had more over-performers than duds here this winter by a fair margin. I actually think we're in a pretty good spot. The heaviest snow may be south of CLE, sure, but I think at least 6" is a good possibility between Saturday evening and Monday morning. The snow will come in two waves...one Saturday night into Sunday morning on overrunning north of the arctic front that should cross the region Saturday evening. This one the models generally agree on and this looks good for 1-3/2-4" type amounts through Sunday morning for Cleveland...with perhaps a mix Saturday night as close as MFD, AKR and YNG. The next big wave, which has the potential to be more significant, comes Sunday evening through Monday morning. It seems as though the placement of the PV over SE Canada, and perhaps the timing of a shortwave diving into the Great Lakes on the backside of this PV, will be very critical to how far north/south the energy ejecting out of the southwest tracks. The strength of the energy itself may also impact things a bit. This second wave could produce anywhere from 0-8" of additional snow in Cleveland. When looking at the pattern...the NAO is +. There is another deep polar vortex slamming into Ireland/Britain. This PV to the east is moving off to the east, and there is nothing to stop our PV from lifting out a bit farther to the northeast. If this happens confluence would relax a bit. The GFS/Euro both try to show the energy moving out of the southwest taking on a neutral tilt over IA Sunday night, but start shearing it out a bit before they get here as it runs into this confluence. If the energy is a bit stronger and can raise heights a bit more ahead of it over the eastern US and possibly push the PV a bit more to the NE...or if the PV moves NE quicker than modeled (which in a +NAO regime isn't unfathomable)...the energy likely wouldn't start shearing out. Considering the GFS drops about .2" of QPF on Cleveland and the Euro drops about .4" of QPF from this second wave...with a sharp increase to the south...even while shearing out the energy more than I think may happen...it's certainly interesting. When looking at the UKMET and Canadian...the Canadian is way south, and the UKMET appears to be a bit south of the GFS/Euro but definitely well north of the Canadian. The 3z SREF also trended colder (previous runs suggested a lot of mixing/rain for Cleveland which seemed unlikely) but maintains at least 0.75" of mean QPF between Saturday evening and Monday morning (about a quarter inch of that being Saturday night into Sunday morning, and about a half inch of that being Sunday evening into Monday). Given all of this...the fact that the energy off the west coast will only gradually become sampled over the next couple of days and won't be fully sampled until Saturday evening...and the fact that energy often ends up stronger than satellites estimate once it's sampled by the RAOB network...I feel that 2-4" from "wave one" Saturday night into early Sunday plus at least 2-4" from "wave two" late Sunday into Monday is a good possibility in Cleveland. A slight nudge north on the GFS/Euro pushes those "wave two totals" higher and that's certainly possible. At this point the energy hasn't been sampled, so if the energy moving out of the southwest ends up being a bit weaker than progged, or if the PV is more stubborn than the models show, then wave two would be a dud. I still feel good about something from wave one Saturday night, however it would be the second wave that may actually make this a decent snow storm if it panned out. I like our odds but at this point stuff could still go wrong obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 -10 F in Chagrin Falls this morning. A couple stations around Munson/Chardon on WUnderground are around -20 F. This pattern is post-apocalyptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Erie.Pa is now sitting at 120.6" for the season, They really are closing in on the gap for their snowiest season which was 149.1" back in 00-01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dropped down to -12 IMBY this morning. I could do without sub zero temps until next year at this point. I see CLE reported 1" of snowfall yesterday. So, they gained snowfall from the previous day yet lost snowcover. Just goes to show how much of a factor wind plays at the airport. Great summary OHWeather. It will be interesting to see what happens with the models once the storm has better sampling. Lot's of moving parts. As Trent mentioned, a whiff to the south would be brutal considering how many times the heaviest snows have gone NW of us this winter. I still feel pretty good sitting on the NW side at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12 gfs went way south. Wait for the sampling this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 12 gfs went way south. Wait for the sampling this evening... There are a variety of solutions on table to say the least. You guys along I-70 are in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm glad I haven't invested much time into tracking this. This has been the winter of tracking things for a week and getting hyped up in advance of an inevitable let down. The best snows have been those that have popped up within 36 hours. Best case scenario now appears to be the first wave. I say CLE gets 2-4" total from tomorrow through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yeah 6z GFS and 12z GFS are quite different for northern Ohio. I guess we'll just have to wait... until the GFS can compute as well as the ECMWF. ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm glad I haven't invested much time into tracking this. This has been the winter of tracking things for a week and getting hyped up in advance of an inevitable let down. The best snows have been those that have popped up within 36 hours. Best case scenario now appears to be the first wave. I say CLE gets 2-4" total from tomorrow through Monday. Yeah, the trend is not our friend. I'll probably waive the white flag if tonights runs hold. The models have been less than consistent but its hard to ignore the southern shift (outside of the NAM). A small step north would change things dramatically. I can't think of a storm this year that didn't put down heavier snows north of what the models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, the trend is not our friend. I'll probably waive the white flag if tonights runs hold. The models have been less than consistent but its hard to ignore the southern shift (outside of the NAM). A small step north would change things dramatically. I can't think of a storm this year that didn't put down heavier snows north of what the models showed. 11/26 and 12/6 were last second jumps south. Most others were jumps north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm glad I haven't invested much time into tracking this. This has been the winter of tracking things for a week and getting hyped up in advance of an inevitable let down. The best snows have been those that have popped up within 36 hours. Best case scenario now appears to be the first wave. I say CLE gets 2-4" total from tomorrow through Monday. Unfortunately I had too much free time this week and did put time into a ho-hum sub-advisory snow. 2-4" looks most likely now with most of that being Saturday night-Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Unfortunately I had too much free time this week and did put time into a ho-hum sub-advisory snow. 2-4" looks most likely now with most of that being Saturday night-Sunday morning. Trends have been drier with each run. Sad, because this had so much potential. Today's over performing mid 40's have completely erased all of the week's lake effect here, there are still patches of old snow from early February remaining, but the high ratio fluff is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have yet to really see any 2 forecasts that are alike... There is still room for it to lift north. We will just have to wait and see, I think there are going to be a lot of surprises with this, some good, and a lot of bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Starting Thursday of this week it looks like the arctic air is over. The ECMWF has been warmer than the GFS and CMC for several runs now. With a cut-off near the East Coast it looks like we may have some nice days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 45 and some sun yesterday afternoon that quickly dropped to around 20 at night and now it's 12 and the ground is coated. Spring definitely wants to make an appearance, but winter just won't back down. About 3" here, which was pretty much to be expected. Glad I didn't invest too much time tracking this. I was quite surprised to see that advisories were hoisted for this. I'll never quite understand the methodology for issuing/not issuing advisories for snow around Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looping this overnight radar, without looking out the window you'd have thought we'd have picked up 5-8" ... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=CLE-N0Q-1-200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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