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This has to be the warmest day I've seen in northern Ohio in September. I can't remember much above 94ish ever in September. Toledo Express got to 95 on Sep. 9 2002 and also 95 on Sep. 6 1990. Few of the other record highs on this September list are in my lifetime.

 

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CLE is going to hit at least 96 if not 97 today pending any intra-hour bumps. The previous hottest day of the summer was 94 on July 19th. 

 

Looks like 96 will do it. Which is impressive ... for any time of the year. If you look at distribution of max temp at CLE by year, 93 is generally average.

 

BKL was at least 97, their hottest day before was only 91 this year.

 

Temperatures definitely overperformed. The zones were upper 80s along the shore and low 90s inland this morning; almost 10 degrees too low for the lakefront!

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I do think it's a double rounding error, take a look at the METAR:

 

KCLE 102051Z 23013G20KT 10SM CLR 36/19 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP163 T03560189 58009

 

I never understood why the METAR includes the rounded values and the exact values. The software must use the rounded value from the METAR instead of the exact value. Hence when it's converted to F using the already rounded number, it adds a degree than if it used the 35.6 value.

 

 

And another record high at CLE again today. It seemed like everyone was afraid to go much above 90 with their forecasts. Looks like 93 officially, but a 94 might have popped up between 3 and 4 pm. 

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I do think it's a double rounding error, take a look at the METAR:

KCLE 102051Z 23013G20KT 10SM CLR 36/19 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP163 T03560189 58009

I never understood why the METAR includes the rounded values and the exact values. The software must use the rounded value from the METAR instead of the exact value. Hence when it's converted to F using the already rounded number, it adds a degree than if it used the 35.6 value.

And another record high at CLE again today. It seemed like everyone was afraid to go much above 90 with their forecasts. Looks like 93 officially, but a 94 might have popped up between 3 and 4 pm.

CLE actually got back to me on that. 35.6C was the high and they think it got rounded to 36 and then converted back to 97F. In reality the high was 35.6C which is about 96.1F.

When I forecasted Monday night I figured today would be 2-3 degrees cooler than yesterday due to clouds and that was the case. Problem is I put 92 in for Monday when in reality the spread across Northern OH was 91-96 at the official stations...so the 89 I had in for today ended up busting.

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CLE actually got back to me on that. 35.6C was the high and they think it got rounded to 36 and then converted back to 97F. In reality the high was 35.6C which is about 96.1F.

When I forecasted Monday night I figured today would be 2-3 degrees cooler than yesterday due to clouds and that was the case. Problem is I put 92 in for Monday when in reality the spread across Northern OH was 91-96 at the official stations...so the 89 I had in for today ended up busting.

 

 

Looks like CLE topped out at 95. I'm not surprised as a lot of personal weather stations had spikes to 95 between the 3 and 4 pm hours.

 

Very, very impressive to have back to back 95+ degrees this late in the season. I was looking at averages and medians and it looks like the median number of 90+ degree days is 8, which is exactly what we'll end up this year, barring an extra late season heat spell. The average is higher, due to the fact that a couple of crazy years with 30 or more days of 90 can easily skew all the years with 0 to 4 days.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

0525 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CLEVELAND AND TOLEDO OH...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT CLEVELAND

HOPKINS AIRPORT AT 403 PM EDT (303 PM EST) THIS AFTERNOON. THIS

BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET IN 1952.

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Looks like CLE topped out at 95. I'm not surprised as a lot of personal weather stations had spikes to 95 between the 3 and 4 pm hours.

 

Very, very impressive to have back to back 95+ degrees this late in the season. I was looking at averages and medians and it looks like the median number of 90+ degree days is 8, which is exactly what we'll end up this year, barring an extra late season heat spell. The average is higher, due to the fact that a couple of crazy years with 30 or more days of 90 can easily skew all the years with 0 to 4 days.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

0525 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CLEVELAND AND TOLEDO OH...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT CLEVELAND

HOPKINS AIRPORT AT 403 PM EDT (303 PM EST) THIS AFTERNOON. THIS

BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET IN 1952.

I'm shocked it got that hot today. This setup in July with dry ground like we have now would have easily yielded a 100+ degree high. I have a feeling these two 95+ degree highs this late only trail 1952 (I think?) which had highs of 98 and 96 on the 12th and 13th. FWIW, the GFS and Euro show a trough out west and ridging over the east in the medium range. I'm not sure it will be enough to net another 90 but hey you never know:

 

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I'm shocked it got that hot today. This setup in July with dry ground like we have now would have easily yielded a 100+ degree high. 

 

No doubt the dry ground helped this heat. It hasn't rained here all month and the last 3 weeks of August were dry except for one thunderstorm. Parts of NE Ohio have seen more rain than others, but on a whole, it's been a dry 30 days. Grass is all brown here now, something we haven't seen too much of the past 3 years. 

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Glad to be done with the heat for now. The past 2 days were brutal. Would be nice to get a lake effect rain soaker tomorrow since we had very little storm activity around here. As you guys mentioned, it is dry out there despite a relatively wet summer.

 

Looking forward to our 1st Winter in Geauga county. I will certainly be rooting for more NW wind LES events.

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Glad to be done with the heat for now. The past 2 days were brutal. Would be nice to get a lake effect rain soaker tomorrow since we had very little storm activity around here. As you guys mentioned, it is dry out there despite a relatively wet summer.

 

Looking forward to our 1st Winter in Geauga county. I will certainly be rooting for more NW wind LES events.

 

Forgot that  you mentioned you were moving out there.  I have also recently purchased a house (still pending inspections etc.) off Bell near 306.  Should be a better area than mayfield for LES.  According to the elevation map I looked up, its near 1235'.

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Forgot that  you mentioned you were moving out there.  I have also recently purchased a house (still pending inspections etc.) off Bell near 306.  Should be a better area than mayfield for LES.  According to the elevation map I looked up, its near 1235'.

Easily one of the best storms of the season imby tonight. Big winds and much needed heavy rain. I'm still in lyndhurst until the end of the month. Congrats on the new house... We're almost neighbors. Given your elevation I'm guessing your in Kensington? Great spot on the peak of a ridge. Our house is at 1190. Being further inland we'll definitely do better with snow.

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Easily one of the best storms of the season imby tonight. Big winds and much needed heavy rain. I'm still in lyndhurst until the end of the month. Congrats on the new house... We're almost neighbors. Given your elevation I'm guessing your in Kensington? Great spot on the peak of a ridge. Our house is at 1190. Being further inland we'll definitely do better with snow.

 

Ya power flickered here several times, thought for sure it was going out.  Lots of lightening and heavy rain.  Looks like some LE rain this morning.  Thanks!  Im a little further down Bell, right as you cross into Newbury.  Ya, it should be a much better spot!

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Ya power flickered here several times, thought for sure it was going out.  Lots of lightening and heavy rain.  Looks like some LE rain this morning.  Thanks!  Im a little further down Bell, right as you cross into Newbury.  Ya, it should be a much better spot!

 

Nice. You're about a half mile east of me. Going to be a big change from "city" living, but I'm looking forward to it.

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Seems like everyone's headed east! I'm now working just to the east of I-271. So it'll be much more interesting once LES season begins!

 

 

Thought perhaps we'd get some waterspouts today. Haven't heard of any reports thus far.

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Nice. You're about a half mile east of me. Going to be a big change from "city" living, but I'm looking forward to it.

 

 

Awesome!  Ya definitely looking forward to the change in environments.  While that area is still close to everything, it's just far enough out from the city atmosphere.

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Hardly a drop of rain this month IMBY. The storms Thursday night produced barely 0.05 with the light rain showers on Friday producing nothing more than a couple hundredths. It looks like the east side has fared much better.

 

CLE at just 0.23" for the month.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Disappointing. They've been doing extensive runway reconstruction at the airport recently. Hopefully they can get this up soon again.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

1230 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

...ASOS EQUIPMENT AT BURKE LAKEFRONT AIRPORT(BKL) TO BE DISABLED...

THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT BURKE LAKEFRONT

AIRPORT (BKL) IN CLEVELAND OHIO WILL BE POWERED DOWN AND DISABLED

THIS AFTERNOON SEPTEMBER 25TH UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. CONSTRUCTION

NEAR THE ASOS SITE HAS CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PROVIDING

UNREPRESENTATIVE DATA MANDATING THAT THE SYSTEM BE POWERED DOWN.

MANUAL OBSERVATIONS MAY BE SEEN ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS.

A TIME FRAME FOR RESTORING THE AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS HAS NOT

BEEN ESTABLISHED. THE ASOS SITE IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO BE

RELOCATED ON THE AIRPORT GROUNDS.

$$

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  • 2 weeks later...

Talk about a very benign year, weatherwise, for Northeast Ohio. I think you'd be hard pressed to even come up with a top 5 weather events list for this year.

 

Lake Erie temperatures have only fallen 4 or 5 degrees from their summertime peak and running quite a bit above normal. The Cleveland CRIB is at 66, which is 4 degrees above normal now. Even surface temps are running warm, the buoy near the Erie Islands is sitting at a toasty 66.

 

Perhaps we can muster a decent early season lake effect event for the higher elevations, something that's been absent from the past few seasons. It seems each year I have to bring up the "latest first inch of snow" list. 

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Talk about a very benign year, weatherwise, for Northeast Ohio. I think you'd be hard pressed to even come up with a top 5 weather events list for this year.

 

Lake Erie temperatures have only fallen 4 or 5 degrees from their summertime peak and running quite a bit above normal. The Cleveland CRIB is at 66, which is 4 degrees above normal now. Even surface temps are running warm, the buoy near the Erie Islands is sitting at a toasty 66.

 

Perhaps we can muster a decent early season lake effect event for the higher elevations, something that's been absent from the past few seasons. It seems each year I have to bring up the "latest first inch of snow" list. 

 

You moved there in 2010 or 2011?

 

The last two winters have sucked, so it might feel worse because of such a badly timed move.

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You moved there in 2010 or 2011?

 

The last two winters have sucked, so it might feel worse because of such a badly timed move.

 

2007. There've been some great winters and some crappy winters in that time span here.

 

The past two winters were no doubt the least exciting of my life, so the bar has been lowered so much it won't take much for this winter to feel decent. 

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Finally looks like this boring stretch of weather is coming to an end. Showers and cooler conditions aren't all that exciting... but it will be a change from sunny skies. Foliage looks to be near peak in some areas. The wind and rain should bring a lot of the leaves down.

 

As Trent mentioned, we are long overdue for an early season lake effect event. Hopefully we'll have an opportunity before the lake cools.

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And it begins... western basin water temps are dropping. Should cool significantly this week. Flakes should be flying (at least inland) this week.

I work along the Mayfield Heights/Pepper Pike border at a little over 1,100' now. So I'll at least see several feet more this year. No doubt we'll see some October snow this year ... Even if it's non accumulating.

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I work along the Mayfield Heights/Pepper Pike border at a little over 1,100' now. So I'll at least see several feet more this year. No doubt we'll see some October snow this year ... Even if it's non accumulating.

Nice. You'll definitely see more snow than being in the city... The view won't be as nice of course. That's only a few miles from where I used to live... That area rides a fine line but there is something about the 322/271 area and snow.

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I'm starting to think there is modest potential (~30%) for some accumulations (1-4") Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Models all show the winds becoming very well aligned with little speed shear Wednesday night at a W or WNW direction with strong lake induced instability and high inversions to go along with perhaps some mid-level moisture from another small shortwave moving across the OV Thursday morning.

 

Obviously the big question mark will be temperatures...usually when we get early season lake effect snow events we need 850mb temps of around -7C or -8C to start seeing good accums in the higher terrain. The models show 850mb temps bottoming out at around -5C to -6C by Thursday morning and holding in that ballpark into Friday...so close but at first glance probably too warm for accumulations. But, this can possibly be overcome. The air farther from the lake will likely dip to near or below freezing Wednesday night with dew points likely in the 20's away from the lake. All of these numbers are cold enough for snow...the question is can the warmer/more moist air from the lake be overcome with such marginal low-level temps and allow accumulations.

 

I'm thinking that if a formidable band can setup Wednesday night into Thursday with a more westerly flow that once you hit the hills the lake modified air should stop its inland penetration. If the flow was more NW and stronger it would perhaps be a bleaker picture. A strong lake effect band will draw drier/colder air into it from its south and would also allow some dynamical cooling to occur beneath the band. Given the NAM shows 2m wet-bulbs below freezing up to the southern edge of the lake effect band it depicts early Thursday morning and shows 2m wetbulbs below 2C/36F once you hit the hills in eastern Cuyahoga, Geauga and Ashtabula Counties this seems somewhat possible...the NAM also dips 925mb temps to freezing by Thursday morning. Given the models generally show 500mb-lake temp differentials of near 45C Wednesday night and no real inversion under that level if a band can develop it will kick-ass...be it rain, a mix or perhaps snow inland...with thunder and lightning likely.

 

So, all I'm saying is keep an open mind over Geauga, inland Ashtabula and PERHAPS inland eastern Cuyahoga counties for some accumulations by Thursday morning. It may happen again Thursday night into Friday but with winds going more NW I'm more skeptical of intense banding and am also more worried about the lakes influence possibly keeping the boundary layer too warm. Regardless, in Athens I'm hoping for maybe some graupel or something on Thursday or Thursday evening if we can get some instability showers to pop.

 

Here are the 0z NAM 2m wet-bulbs and winds for 8am Thursday:

 

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