dta1984 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Nothing here as well...just a minor dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Quite a stretch of above freezing temps here the past week. Haven't been below freezing since Thursday morning. It's hard to say what the snowpack is. North facing shaded areas still have 2-4", but wherever the sun shines, it's bare grass. I guess this would officially be a trace to an inch. At this point, it looks so terrible outside, I'd have preferred one more day of 50+ torch to just get rid of the remaining brown crust snow. I wonder how cold it will really be this week without much of a snowpack here? and to keep us on model watch for the next 10 days, the GFS has a nice apps runner for us on hour 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Pretty much the same here. Not too many bare spots though, except areas that drifted. We are due for a good apps runner. ..March 08 style lol. I was living in Cincy at that time and I think we got a little over a foot. Melted a day later though lol. I'm really hoping we can get a good lake event sometime this week. Any idea what the moisture looks like? It would be a shame to miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Satellite imagery from this afternoon suggests the open water expanded a bit more. Honestly, there's enough open water that a NW or NNW flow would have as much open water as normal for places like Lorain and Cuyahoga County...and there's enough open water for a convergence band along the shoreline as well. The models show three little disturbance with enough mid-level moisture for decent LES for brief periods of time...first on Tuesday, then another Wednesday, then another on Thursday. Wind direction is questionable, although early indications are Wednesday may have WNW winds while Tuesday and Thursday may not have a northerly component. So you guys could see something this week. We'll see how much the lake refreezes. I'll have to check the actual numbers, but ice concentration on the Great Lakes as a whole went from something like 85%+ to probably closer to 20-25% from this warm up, which is really spectacular. Synoptic snow chances will return the first week of March because I'll be home and I said so . Really though, the models show a lot of energy moving out of the west starting late this week with troughing hanging around over the Great Lakes. Something may come of that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 NW OH posters...what is your avg snow depth like? I ask because I notice a CoCorahs obs NE of Toledo reported 11" depth while TOL reports 0? Depth is very variable everywhere, but I was wondering how snow survived the torch in Toledo. We went from an avg depth of 21" to avg depth 12". EDIT I see TOL has 4" not 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Pretty much the same here. Not too many bare spots though, except areas that drifted. We are due for a good apps runner. ..March 08 style lol. I was living in Cincy at that time and I think we got a little over a foot. Melted a day later though lol. I'm really hoping we can get a good lake event sometime this week. Any idea what the moisture looks like? It would be a shame to miss out. It is a variable snow cover... Drive down 306 and there's a lot of grass, yet in the neighborhoods it's all snow cover. Still a solid 3-4 here outside of drifted areas. With the strong sun it feels like spring outside... Regardless of the temps. At this point, I'd rather just warm up for good. If a big dog storm comes this way I wouldn't complain. But winter is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Oh look, locally heavy bands of LES this morning. Could persist into the mid-afternoon, and could be more decent LES tonight on a W flow as good mid-level moisture moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Looking at web cams the snow for the most part is pretty light...although 271 and Cedar and a couple of the I-90 cams in Lake County have shown some pretty heavy bursts. The Chardon cam is also showing heavy bursts. The airmass this morning is marginally cold and fairly dry, so this may be a more interesting few days than a thought as colder air and at times somewhat better moisture moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Looking at web cams the snow for the most part is pretty light...although 271 and Cedar and a couple of the I-90 cams in Lake County have shown some pretty heavy bursts. The Chardon cam is also showing heavy bursts. The airmass this morning is marginally cold and fairly dry, so this may be a more interesting few days than a thought as colder air and at times somewhat better moisture moves in. It has been snowing pretty good in Chagrin this morning. The snow is extremely fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It has been snowing pretty good in Chagrin this morning. The snow is extremely fluffy.Yeah, looks like the snow is falling at a decent rate inland. A more focused band developing from Cleveland to Mayfield east into Lake and Geauga Counties with some 30dBZ returns, someone near Chardon will easily see 4" today I think. Now to figure out what happens starting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 It has really picked up in Mayfield Heights in the past 10 minutes. Could definitely prove to be an interesting week with better moisture ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Newest update. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL LARGEOPENINGS OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE WILL CONTRIBUTE AN INCH OR SO INTHE PERSISTENT BANDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE COMEIN WITH A 3 INCH REPORT BY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ASHTABULAINTO NW PA.OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TOREFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. Convergence band has formed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Newest update. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL LARGE OPENINGS OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE WILL CONTRIBUTE AN INCH OR SO IN THE PERSISTENT BANDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE COME IN WITH A 3 INCH REPORT BY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ASHTABULA INTO NW PA. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. Convergence band has formed... That's a textbook convergence band. With the open water and westerly fetch... someone is going to cash in this week. Looks like this area will be on the southern fringe as winds don't appear to come around to any more than 290 or so. So much for winter being over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Man just a little further south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Man just a little further south! We may get in the action later in the week. Northern geauga and lake counties should see the brunt of the snow with a 270-280 flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Had some time to look a bit deeper through Wednesday... Pretty decent moisture tonight with 850mb temperatures cooling to -18 to -20C by morning which should yield decent instability. Winds will come around to a bit more of a WNW direction (close to this morning) after midnight as a little trough goes by which should get more snow going. Things look favorable for about 12 hours give or take until winds go more WSW tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next little shortwave which would push any LES up the lakeshore. Tuesday night into Wednesday a more potent trough goes by with decent moisture and winds again going WNW behind the trough. Favorable winds/moisture look to last a bit longer this portion of the event, with a 12-18 hour window of WNW winds and good moisture. Winds again go SW later Wednesday ahead of another system. Thursday may also see a decent period of LES, but I'll give that another day to evolve on the models before making a call on it, since there should be a 12+ hour dry window Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. I received a report on Facebook of 4" in Chardon for today which jives with what a web cam there shows. Considering there will be deeper moisture, similar winds, slightly better instability and somewhat longer windows for decent LES with these two little systems over the next two days, I really don't think 6-10" is at all a stretch over the Snowbelt. The winds appear to favor areas closer to 322 and a bit north for the heaviest snows, however the hi-res NAM does suggest better banding getting into southern Cuyahoga County at times which may be possible, especially Wednesday morning if we get enough of a northerly component to the winds. The central basin is wide open which is really all the Cleveland metro and NE Ohio Snowbelt needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Diurnal influences have killed lake effect off of a fully open Lake Ontario with Lake Huron upstream connections. I wouldn't get your hopes up with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Diurnal influences have killed lake effect off of a fully open Lake Ontario with Lake Huron upstream connections. I wouldn't get your hopes up with this one. The snow will become more cellular during the day... but I'm not sure it's going to completely destroy banding. We had a significant event in mid October so I think we are ok sun angle wise in late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Diurnal influences have killed lake effect off of a fully open Lake Ontario with Lake Huron upstream connections. I wouldn't get your hopes up with this one. I think in this situation it won't make a huge difference for a few reasons. We are certainly getting to the time of year where it's harder to maintain organized lake effect through the whole afternoon, but at least for Ohio the best lake effect conditions look to be late night/morning both tomorrow and Wednesday. I think by Wednesday the airmass will be cold enough that we should still maintain a good air/water temperature differential. Today it got into the upper 20's in northern Ohio so we lost the good temperature differential and the banding became disorganized, that may not be as big of a factor later in the week when the air over land is struggling to hit 20. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I think in this situation it won't make a huge difference for a few reasons. We are certainly getting to the time of year where it's harder to maintain organized lake effect through the whole afternoon, but at least for Ohio the best lake effect conditions look to be late night/morning both tomorrow and Wednesday. I think by Wednesday the airmass will be cold enough that we should still maintain a good air/water temperature differential. Today it got into the upper 20's in northern Ohio so we lost the good temperature differential and the banding became disorganized, that may not be as big of a factor later in the week when the air over land is struggling to hit 20. But we'll see. Yeah that makes sense. LES is intensifying off both lakes currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Yeah that makes sense. LES is intensifying off both lakes currently.Yes, glad to see the LES has gotten better organized over the last couple hours off of Lake Erie. With the better moisture and trough still hours away I feel better about my 6-10" through Wednesday morning than I did a few hours ago. No one in the Cleveland media really mentioned this, three out of four channels said just flurries for the AM commute. One met did mention 1-4" in the Snowbelt for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks like just under an inch of very fluffy, wind blown snow. Judging by radar and obs out of CLE, it was just one quick hitting band. It seems it's so hard to get these to just stay put for 6-8 hours in one spot. KCLE 251051Z 32009KT 1 1/4SM -SN OVC014 M07/M10 A3013 RMK AO2 SLP216 SNINCR 1/1 P0003 T10671100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Your call looking good for my neck of the woods OHweather. 1.3" thur early evening yesterday, 3.7" of whisper-light fluff overnight for a nice tidy 5.0" so far. Hope today and tomorrow perform and then maybe something for late weekend..."fingers crossed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Just under 2" IMBY as of 8am. There was more snow once you get north of Fairmount. Looked like 3-4" or so around Cedar and 91. Winds came around much more northerly than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Holy @&)$. Congrats OHweather for an amazing forecast. I had my longest commute of the season this morning. Once again Mayfield Heights seemed to be a jackpot. 271 is a parking lot. 5-6" of new snow and it was dumping. Of course, not even an advisory out for this, and hardly a mention of more than an inch in the official forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Holy @&)$. Congrats OHweather for an amazing forecast. I had my longest commute of the season this morning. Once again Mayfield Heights seemed to be a jackpot. 271 is a parking lot. 5-6" of new snow and it was dumping. Of course, not even an advisory out for this, and hardly a mention of more than an inch in the official forecasts. I left the gym at Legacy around 7am and it was coming down. Not surprising that area had 5-6". Amazing how many times that area has been the jackpot this winter. Sun is peaking out in Chagrin with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Wow, congrats! Glad that much snow worked out. Tonight looks similar with maybe somewhat more of a northerly component to the wind ahead of the trough. Could be another situation where there's decent banding from Cuyahoga County east for a few hours ahead of the trough before everything swings southwest behind the trough. Better instability tonight so a few more local 6" amounts wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 271 this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Wow, congrats! Glad that much snow worked out. Tonight looks similar with maybe somewhat more of a northerly component to the wind ahead of the trough. Could be another situation where there's decent banding from Cuyahoga County east for a few hours ahead of the trough before everything swings southwest behind the trough. Better instability tonight so a few more local 6" amounts wouldn't shock me. Nice forecast btw. We'll see what happens tonight. The rich will most likely get richer. This snow is going to have a tough time surviving any sunshine... it is pure fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Amazing how localized the 6" of snow was here. It's pure fluff so it will settle considerably through the late February sun. Mayfield Heights is now at 110" this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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