Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[NEOH]

Picked up 2.8" total from yesterday evening. Sun just popped out here.

Winds look to align nicely this afternoon through tomorrow, but we'll see what the lake can produce. I don't have too high of expectations, but this has decent surprise snowfall potential.

Picked up about the same here since yesterday evening. Just looked at the visible satellite and that ice free area out west looks snow covered.... I could be wrong though. Talk about timing being eveything. This is a great les setup... Good wind direction and decent moisture.

[Trent]

There were lots of open cracks yesterday, but the visible satellite today looks like Lake Erie might actually be frozen solid.

 

You can see the small crack that always forms between the shallow western basin and the central waters.

 

Just think of how much snow could have fallen this winter if the lake hadn't frozen over.

 

[NEOH]

There were lots of open cracks yesterday, but the visible satellite today looks like Lake Erie might actually be frozen solid.

 

You can see the small crack that always forms between the shallow western basin and the central waters.

 

Just think of how much snow could have fallen this winter if the lake hadn't frozen over.

 

erie.png

Yeah, the snow sealed the ice up. It wasn't going to take much with the slush out there. We still might add an inch or two tonight. Awful timing this year with les set ups.

[OHweather]

Some 30dbz echoes have been briefly showing up in parts of Lake and Geauga Counties since a bit after 10:00...I'd imagine this would've been good had the lake not been frozen.

[MAIDEsNow]

5.4 fluffy inches since early Sunday morning.  Definitely would have been nice with some open water.  Regardless, looks lovely out there!

[OHweather]

Looks like 1-3" just about did it last night...Chardon actually measured a whopping 3.3". Clipper parade may start up again this weekend, and I think it's inevitable that we see a significant warm up for the second half of next week. Thursday may overperform temp wise IMO if we can get some southwesterly winds to kick up ahead of the next clipper.

 

Looking things over, I've seen over 60" of snow this season between Athens and Reminderville. Last year Reminderville hit about 70", and I do think I'll see at least the 7" needed to surpass that mark. Reminderville struggled to push over 50" in 2011-2012. So despite spending the majority of this winter in the worst corner of the state for snow, I'm still doing very well. I know this is all still very circumstantial, and while still not "great" for lake belt areas in NE Ohio, this winter has definitely been a marked improvement over the last two winters. We've had snow cover everyday since January 18th in Athens except for two single days, and the snow pack has been 4"+ deep for the majority of that time period (we have about 6" on the ground right now). Pretty impressive for this far south.

 

I'll have to look into it more when I don't have 3 exams to study for, but factoring in when it snowed in Athens when I was in Reminderville they're likely near 35" for the season. PKB averages right around 20" on the whole season, so it's reasonable to say SE Ohio is almost doubling their normal snowfall through this point. But I'll have to run some harder numbers later.

[NEOH]

4"+ of new snow over the weekend (1.4" being LES). This really could have been a big event with just a little more open water.

[Trent]

The fluff that fell overnight and this morning was super high ratio 30:1 or 40:1. There was an inch of snow that fell on my car this morning and even with temps in the upper teens, when the full sun appeared around 11am, it wiped it out within an hour.

 

Probably the most depressing satellite shot yet this winter:

 

[dta1984]

That is depressing! Was the Easter event several years ago from lake effect? Just curious how rare late season les events are. .

Looks like I'm right at a 90" season total so far. I would think 100" would be easily attainable. What's average for this area? This is the first year I've actually recorded everything.

[OHweather]

That is depressing! Was the Easter event several years ago from lake effect? Just curious how rare late season les events are. .

Looks like I'm right at a 90" season total so far. I would think 100" would be easily attainable. What's average for this area? This is the first year I've actually recorded everything.

The Easter event in 2007 was all lake effect. The lake was just about frozen completely into late March that year IIRC. Late season lake effect events aren't common but they've happened before, and when they've happened they haven't disappointed...

 

Brief run down of what has happened in the last 10 years:

 

April 2-3, 2005: This wasn't all lake effect (areas like Mansfield and Akron/Canton did see 4-8" of synoptic snow) however significant lake enhancement occurred. Parts of northern Geauga and Ashtabula Counties saw over 2 feet of snow. Newbury probably would've seen at least a foot.

 

April 23-25, 2005: Remains one of my favorite snow storms to date. Again this one wasn't all synoptic as places like Toledo, Mansfield and Akron/Canton saw several inches of snow over the course of that weekend, however significant enhancement occurred. Parts of Cuyahoga County including Solon, where I was living at the time, saw over 18" of snow in about 36 hours. Tree damage was tremendous. This was actually a northerly flow event.

 

April 5-9, 2007: The Easter snow storm. Long duration purely lake effect event, with a W-E convergence band into a good chunk of Cuyahoga County for significant amounts of time. This would be Trent's dream lake effect snow storm if he had to pick one in the last 18 years at his location (I'm not sure how the near west side would've done in November 1996).

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/wx_events/Easter2007/Eastersnow1.PNG

 

April 6-8, 2009: Another situation where there was a bit of synoptic snow and then lake enhancement behind it. Not as significant as the previous events mentioned but did drop over 6" on Solon over the course of a day and a half and I'm sure someone in Geauga County saw a bit more.

 

So it can happen and I'd almost say we're due

 

As for averages in west-central Geauga County it's tough to tell. CLE has mapped seasonal snowfall since the 96-97 winter. There are a few winters in that time frame where you struggled to hit 60" and many over 100", with a few over 120" and a max (04-05) where your location saw over 150". When crunching all these numbers the average seems to be over 100" for Newbury, however the 2000's were a very snowy decade overall and 2010-2011 was also very snowy. Considering the 30 year normal is likely lower than this smaller sample I'd say you probably average 95" give or take over the long run, so you will likely finish over the 30 year average this year in Newbury...but still not as snowy as the past 15 years overall.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/climate/info/snowinfo.html

[dta1984]

Thanks OHweather! Those are some impressive late season events! Wow 2005 saw 2 storms! Very interesting. I'm sure those storms probably produced nearly the same damage as the October event last year.

95" seems about right. Should definitely surpass that this year. Hard to believe there hasn't been a large storm.....just alot of 3-6 events.

[dta1984]

Were those events forecasted? I'm sure late season events can be tough to forecast.

[OHweather]

Were those events forecasted? I'm sure late season events can be tough to forecast.

No problem!

 

As for how well they were forecasted...they actually were forecasted as well as you can reasonably expect.

 

I haven't pulled up the archived AFDs/headlines recently for the events, but for both 2005 events CLE had watches up a couple of days before the event and warnings up before it started snowing. I know they mentioned possible 12"+ amounts for the April 23-25, 2005 event a couple of days out, not sure how close they were on amounts for the earlier April 2005 event. They actually mentioned snow in their AFD's 5-6 days before the late April 2005 event.

 

IIRC they also had long duration lake effect snow warnings issued a day before the April 2007 event and IIRC they did mention 1-2 feet amounts (which is a pretty decent call given the time of year). At some point I may have to re-order the archived data and save it to this laptop (it was on my old laptop, I know, no life )

 

The April 2009 event they certainly had accumulations in the forecast. I'm not sure if they ended up posting advisories or not, it would've been a marginal advisory if they did issue any.

[NEOH]

No problem!

 

As for how well they were forecasted...they actually were forecasted as well as you can reasonably expect.

 

I haven't pulled up the archived AFDs/headlines recently for the events, but for both 2005 events CLE had watches up a couple of days before the event and warnings up before it started snowing. I know they mentioned possible 12"+ amounts for the April 23-25, 2005 event a couple of days out, not sure how close they were on amounts for the earlier April 2005 event. They actually mentioned snow in their AFD's 5-6 days before the late April 2005 event.

 

IIRC they also had long duration lake effect snow warnings issued a day before the April 2007 event and IIRC they did mention 1-2 feet amounts (which is a pretty decent call given the time of year). At some point I may have to re-order the archived data and save it to this laptop (it was on my old laptop, I know, no life )

 

The April 2009 event they certainly had accumulations in the forecast. I'm not sure if they ended up posting advisories or not, it would've been a marginal advisory if they did issue any.

Thanks for the reminder about the late season les events. April 2007 was ridiculous, and ranked up there with Nov 1996. Although the April snow was so much heavier, and lacked thunder snow. It really was surreal to see that much les so late in the season. Two events I'll never forget.

[Trent]

Looking at the visible satellite this morning, it appears that the entirety of Lake Erie is frozen over. There doesn't appear to be any slush, any fractures, or open areas where the wind has shifted ice around.

It's going to be a miserable spring along the coast. Spring 2009 was terrible following the ice cover extent of Janurary 2009. I'd imagine we'll have days well into May where the coast is in the 40s and a few miles inland bask in the 70s.

[NEOH]

Looking at the visible satellite this morning, it appears that the entirety of Lake Erie is frozen over. There doesn't appear to be any slush, any fractures, or open areas where the wind has shifted ice around.

It's going to be a miserable spring along the coast. Spring 2009 was terrible following the ice cover extent of Janurary 2009. I'd imagine we'll have days well into May where the coast is in the 40s and a few miles inland bask in the 70s.

 

It was frigid last night. But big temp gradient based on elevation. It was 0 at the top of the chagrin valley, and -11 less then a mile at  river level.

 

It will be a nasty spring along the coast. Glad I moved further inland.

[Trent]

Lake breeze already doing its magic!

20 at BKL with a north wind, meanwhile CLE is basking in warmth with 31 degrees.

[OHweather]

It'll be in the 50'a at least a couple of days late next week and may rain a lot. Let's see if the ice budges. I want the lake open the first 10 days of March, anything that happens before then warmth and rain wise that melts all the snow will just be considered unfortunate but necessary

[Trent]

It'll be in the 50'a at least a couple of days late next week and may rain a lot. Let's see if the ice budges. I want the lake open the first 10 days of March, anything that happens before then warmth and rain wise that melts all the snow will just be considered unfortunate but necessary

 

Watching the progression of the lake ice will be interesting through the spring. Once the full break up occurs and we have a major wind event that pushes all the fragments to shore should create some spectacular photos.

 

I hope the central basin opens up again next week, but I'm not sure how warm it has to be to make a dent in the ice. Ice cover melts much differently than snow on land. Looking back, that 5 day torch in mid January didn't do too much damage to the ice that was on Lake Erie then.

 

But as we've seen, we just need a few open slushy areas to get the lake machine going. As awesome as the October lake effect event was, I can't believe it's mid February and we've yet to see a widespread 6-12" LES event since, or even a narrow swath of those kinds of totals.

 

I'd gladly take an April 2007 repeat here!

[OHweather]

Watching the progression of the lake ice will be interesting through the spring. Once the full break up occurs and we have a major wind event that pushes all the fragments to shore should create some spectacular photos.

 

I hope the central basin opens up again next week, but I'm not sure how warm it has to be to make a dent in the ice. Ice cover melts much differently than snow on land. Looking back, that 5 day torch in mid January didn't do too much damage to the ice that was on Lake Erie then.

 

But as we've seen, we just need a few open slushy areas to get the lake machine going. As awesome as the October lake effect event was, I can't believe it's mid February and we've yet to see a widespread 6-12" LES event since, or even a narrow swath of those kinds of totals.

 

I'd gladly take an April 2007 repeat here!

I think next week overall (Monday-Saturday) will be warmer and rainier than the mid-January stretch, so I think there will be significant run off into the lake due to snow melt and rain. However, with the lake frozen solid, with very thick ice in the western basin, and decently thick ice elsewhere (except for probably a thin spot east of the islands where it was open just a few days ago), I'm not sure how easy it will be to break things up.

 

The GFS would be worst case scenario for LES prospects as it actually gets pretty cold again by the last few days of February (so I doubt that things would really open up). The pattern will be more Pacific driven going forward, but the GFS and Euro ensembles both try to place a trough (albeit nothing too strong) nearby by the turn of the month, indicating we may not completely torch after next week.

 

Nothing wrong with an April 2007 repeat. I'll be home the first 9 days of March and perhaps a weekend in early April, so that is the time table for when stuff needs to happen

[ayuud11]

yawn cool spring is on tap, Erie is as frozen as you can get..i bet it's close to 99.99% atm.

 

[dta1984]

Have had light snow at times the past two mornings. May have added up to 1" total.

Looks like there may be another chance of snow Monday and Tuesday before the warm up.

[Trent]

Have had some light dustings each morning too. A couple tenths here and there.

 

you know it's been a dud of a lake effect season when this makes it into a CLE disco in mid February:

 

AREA OF FLURRIES OFF OF LAKE ERIE HAVE EXPANDED A BIT EARLY THAN
ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE ZONES BUT THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO NE OH AND NW PA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW IN THE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AREAS.

[Floydbuster]

I live in Summit County between Cleveland and Akron and we have been getting blasted this morning. Probably close to 2 inches. Same thing yesterday morning. All the forecasts keep saying no accumulation but it's some of the heaviest snow in a week or two.

[Trent]

1.5" of fluff here on the snow board as we continue the streak of Sunday snowfalls.

[NEOH]

Another sub zero morning IMBY. Temp cratered to -6 at 6:30am, now up to -2. Snow total yesterday was right around 2" of fluff. There was a nice burst snow in the afternoon as well.

 

If tonight's storm delivers, the snowpack may be the deepest it has been all season IMBY. I'm not sold on the 4-5" amounts CLE is calling for but we'll see. 

[Trent]

Awesome hoar frost this morning along the lakeshore. BKL was occasionally reporting freezing fog last night. It's incredible to see how much colder BKL has been than CLE the past week. Daytime highs have been 10 degrees cooler along the lake, impressive for February and a sign of things to come for the next 4 months.

I was surprised to see CLE so bullish on amounts. Locally, trends have been for lighter QPF. Most of the snow will fall in a quick 3 hour burst, so I think 2-4" seems more realistic.

We'll definitely have the deepest snow of the season if tonight verifies. And with the warm up looking less impressive we might continue snow pack through the weekend.

[vpbob21]

I was surprised to see CLE so bullish on amounts. Locally, trends have been for lighter QPF. Most of the snow will fall in a quick 3 hour burst, so I think 2-4" seems more realistic.

 

 

I agree - I think CLE is way overforecasting the snow potential with this one. With the low tracking toward western Lake Erie you know the WTOD will come north to Lake Erie this evening. I'm thinking the Toledo area may get 4-5" but SE of a Port Clinton-Findlay line 2-4" looks more realistic and probably closer to the 2" than the 4". I could be wrong but the models always seem to underpredict how far north the rain/snow line gets with these kind of systems.

 

The big show this week looks like the severe weather / high wind threat for Thursday. Hard to believe looking out at the snowpack we have that much of northern Ohio (at least from CLE west) is in a Day 4 SPC risk area but the models certainly look impressive. It will be interesting to see if SPC puts up a Day 3 moderate risk area over or close to us tomorrow.

[NEOH]

I agree - I think CLE is way overforecasting the snow potential with this one. With the low tracking toward western Lake Erie you know the WTOD will come north to Lake Erie this evening. I'm thinking the Toledo area may get 4-5" but SE of a Port Clinton-Findlay line 2-4" looks more realistic and probably closer to the 2" than the 4". I could be wrong but the models always seem to underpredict how far north the rain/snow line gets with these kind of systems.

 

The big show this week looks like the severe weather / high wind threat for Thursday. Hard to believe looking out at the snowpack we have that much of northern Ohio (at least from CLE west) is in a Day 4 SPC risk area but the models certainly look impressive. It will be interesting to see if SPC puts up a Day 3 moderate risk area over or close to us tomorrow.

 

I was thinking the same thing based on the radar earlier... but it has really filled to the southwest. I'm not too concerned about the WTOD. Still 29/11 IMBY... I'd imagine once the heavier precip starts it will be all snow in this area. CLE mentioned mixing around the 30 corridor.

[BuffaloWeather]

Someone please take a video of the snowfall rates that are about to hit Cleveland!!!