ayuud11 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Forgot about that. That was a good call on your part... you eternal pessemist Another ho hum snowfall. Perhaps an inch or two will be in the low range of the forecast. Looks we missed the heaviest snows to the west, south and north. Hey is that picture from blizzard of 77? btw srry about the bust, models were just too crazy with the qpf especially the nam, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hey is that picture from blizzard of 77? btw srry about the bust, models were just too crazy with the qpf especially the nam, Yep, the pic is from '77 in your hood. It happens quite a bit here in CLE so no worries. We've learned to take disappointment in stride. Hopefully you guys get a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps wishful thinking, but returns are just now starting to pop near Sandusky inland as the winds shift more NNW. Grasping at straws here, but let's see what this does here in an hour or two. Still possible to salvage an inch or two more of lake enhancement. That's a nice band over the lake. If the trajectory starts moving south rather than east I'd feel a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's been depressing to watch the heavy snow consistently miss Cleveland this entire storm. The snow over the lake looks nice but is having trouble pushing inland. Am actually getting decent snow here after getting hours of ice last night and then just enough rain this morning to melt it all. We'll actually hang on to 2-3" of cement here for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The PNS says Hopkins airport had 5.2" at 7am. I know the official numbers often get changed at midnight, but that's the highest anywhere in Northeast Ohio. If that's right, they are probably sitting at 7" storm total now. But the last storm, they revised the CLE total down 3" and then raised it an inch 4 days later. So storm totals aren't final there for at least 4 business days. Looks like about 6" here of dense drifted sand snow. Not too bad, as we were lucky to have that band last night at 7pm drop a quick inch and a half. Then 2.5" from about 9pm to 7am, and then another 2" after 7am today. Once again it looks like the west side to about Lorain was the big winner. Ouch at some of those totals in Medina and Summit County, looks like 2-4" is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 local storm reports from Ohio --- PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 0500 AM SNOW 2 WSW PERRYSBURG 41.54N 83.65W 02/05/2014 M8.0 INCH WOOD OH COCORAHS 0700 AM SNOW FINDLAY 41.04N 83.65W 02/05/2014 M4.0 INCH HANCOCK OH SNOW SPOTTER 0700 AM SNOW TOLEDO 41.62N 83.64W 02/05/2014 M4.5 INCH LUCAS OH SNOW SPOTTER 0700 AM SNOW SANDUSKY 41.43N 82.76W 02/05/2014 M6.0 INCH ERIE OH SNOW SPOTTER 0700 AM SNOW OBERLIN 41.29N 82.21W 02/05/2014 M5.2 INCH LORAIN OH SNOW SPOTTER ---- IWX office local storm reports ---- 1115 AM HEAVY SNOW GROVER HILL 41.02N 84.48W 02/05/2014 M9.5 INCH PAULDING OH PUBLIC 0600 AM SNOW WAUSEON 41.52N 84.15W 02/05/2014 M5.0 INCH FULTON OH CO-OP OBSERVER 1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E DEFIANCE 41.28N 84.35W 02/05/2014 M8.7 INCH DEFIANCE OH COCORAHS 0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 NE LIMA 40.77N 84.08W 02/05/2014 M8.1 INCH ALLEN OH COCORAHS ---- DTX office local storm reports, near Toledo --- 0900 AM SNOW TEMPERANCE 41.77N 83.57W 02/05/2014 M7.5 INCH MONROE MI CO-OP OBSERVER 0830 AM SNOW MONROE 41.92N 83.39W 02/05/2014 M7.0 INCH MONROE MI CO-OP OBSERVER 0813 AM SNOW MONROE 41.92N 83.39W 02/05/2014 M5.0 INCH MONROE MI TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Heavy rippage in Garfield heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Light to moderate snow in Solon. Appears there was some flare up over the lake. Hopefully we can make up a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Same in Chagrin. The winds had been relatively weak but as soon as the band pushed onshore, the winds picked up and it's snowing nicely. Should last for a few hours so another couple of inches isn't out the question. We'll see how moisture LE can add to the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Still blowing and snowing in Chagrin. Probably not adding up to much but nice to see. Radar isn't that impressive, but you would think with the strong NNW flow the snow should continue for a few more hours. It would be a much snowier scenario of there was some open water to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It was nice to at least have light snow for most of the afternoon. It really puts into perspective the difference between 6" of heavy, dry, snow versus 6" of lake effect fluff. There is no comparison. It would have been really impressive had the region had 10-12" of this. In the end, when you toss in the lake effect snows, I'm going to say most end up with 4-7 inches. Not bad, but having model consensus of 8-12" makes it seem like a let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll post this just so we can compare how it changes tonight and again in a few days. Doubtful the airport had straight 10:1 ratios on this storm. But goes to show how juiced up the models were with this. I don't think there were any models showing this little moisture. ...THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 5 2014...VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2014WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LASTVALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEARNORMAL..................................................................TEMPERATURE (F)TODAYMAXIMUM 26 842 AM 61 1938 36 -10 28MINIMUM 23 359 PM -12 1918 22 1 22AVERAGE 25 29 -4 25PRECIPITATION (IN)TODAY 0.38 0.08 0.30 0.05MONTH TO DATE 1.40 0.40 1.00 0.50SINCE DEC 1 7.50 6.22 1.28 6.60SINCE JAN 1 3.40 3.12 0.28 2.67SNOWFALL (IN)TODAY 3.8 0.5 3.3 0.7MONTH TO DATE 8.2 2.8 5.4 9.7SINCE DEC 1 49.4 35.6 13.8 30.3SINCE JUL 1 54.1 40.1 14.0 30.6SNOW DEPTH 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Measured 5.75, but I'm sure there was some compacting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Measured 5.75, but I'm sure there was some compacting. We're within a couple miles and I measured the same 5.7". Looks like we will enjoy a little Lake Huron moisture this evening. Nice blob of snow is getting ready to push in from the north. I wouldn't be surprised if we add another 1" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Storm total liquid equivalents for northern Ohio: CAK: 0.34 CLE: 0.39 MFD: 0.54 YNG: 0.54 TOL: 0.56 It's so easy to get caught up in model QPF output. Will definitely have to take that into consideration for the next "big storm." There wasn't even one of the SREF plumes that had this little QPF for Cleveland or Akron. If we could have had 0.70" inches liquid like some of the drier models had shown, that would have made for an impressive event. You've got to wonder if the pattern is going to break in a few weeks and we have a very warm March? CLE still needs 14" more this season to hit normal. I'd find it funny if we switch to a March torch and the airport comes in below normal for snow this season when everyone else is shattering records. Realistically I say CLE ends up with about 75" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Picked an additional 1" of fluff last night so the final storm total is 6.7". Tough way to get a 6"+ storm. I don't think CLE will have any problem reaching normal snowfall for the season. I'm not sold on a Morch after reading Don S. Seems like the pattern may relax then reload. If anything, persistence is the way to go. The local area has done poorly with synoptic storms this year. Also, CLE has missed out on virtually every LES event this year so that has hurt the total as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like cle is trying to hint at some les Sunday. Any chance this pans out with all the ice...only getting thicker? AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT SEVERAL INCHES AS SOME RIDGING WILL BE OCCUR. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Decided to get off and take Marginal Road (sandwiched between Lake Erie/Burke Airport/I-90) after I saw how huge the snow banks were. Pictures do not do this justice as there are spots where it becomes a one lane road and there are 7' snow banks to either side of the road. Too hard to take a picture of that spot while driving in traffic, but nonetheless you get the idea of how the snow is drifting off the airfield and Lake Erie onto the immediate shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like cle is trying to hint at some les Sunday. Any chance this pans out with all the ice...only getting thicker? AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT SEVERAL INCHES AS SOME RIDGING WILL BE OCCUR. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES. I feel like all remaining LES events this winter are going to be 2-4" tops with how frozen Lake Erie is. When the winds shifted on Wednesday to West/Northwest and then North, the region would have received an additional 4-8" of lake effect/enhancement if we had an open lake. Instead there was a dusting to 2". It's been a strange winter here. It's been quite active, but we've been fringed on all the big synoptic snowstorms. We've had short lived torches (long enough to melt the snowpack but short enough to maintain Lake Erie ice cover) and much longer cold spells. Combine that with a predominant SW flow and lake effect has truly been abysmal this winter. For Northeast Ohio to have a jackpot winter, we need to have slightly below normal temps ... basically two week arctic blasts tempered with 2 weeks of seasonal to above average temps. That keeps the lake from freezing over too quickly and ensures a good mix of synoptic snows and lake snows. Considering the past two winters were pretty snowless for Northeast Ohio, this winter is exceptional in comparison. But if you look at this winter compared to many in the late 90s and 2000s, it's nothing special. To already be entering mid February and to not have had a major widespread multi day lake effect event is incredible, but that's what happens when the lake freezes too early and the winds refused to blow from any direction other than southwest. I'd rate this winter a B. Lots of days of snow and lots of days with 3-7" falling. But it's lacked any major storms that have materialized and there have been too many near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Decided to get off and take Marginal Road (sandwiched between Lake Erie/Burke Airport/I-90) after I saw how huge the snow banks were. Pictures do not do this justice as there are spots where it becomes a one lane road and there are 7' snow banks to either side of the road. Too hard to take a picture of that spot while driving in traffic, but nonetheless you get the idea of how the snow is drifting off the airfield and Lake Erie onto the immediate shore. marginal_i90.png Great pic. I've done that drive before during a storm... Crazy place for snow drifts, and pretty dangerous during a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like cle is trying to hint at some les Sunday. Any chance this pans out with all the ice...only getting thicker? AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT SEVERAL INCHES AS SOME RIDGING WILL BE OCCUR. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES. Not sure why CLE keeps mentioning les snowfall. There are some open areas but the lake is virtually shut down with all of the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Decided to get off and take Marginal Road (sandwiched between Lake Erie/Burke Airport/I-90) after I saw how huge the snow banks were. Pictures do not do this justice as there are spots where it becomes a one lane road and there are 7' snow banks to either side of the road. Too hard to take a picture of that spot while driving in traffic, but nonetheless you get the idea of how the snow is drifting off the airfield and Lake Erie onto the immediate shore. marginal_i90.png Similar story up here at the "outer harbor", can only imagine what the conditions were like there at the height of blizzard of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wasn't expecting a mostly sunny day. Looks like we are in line for an inch or two tonight and tomorrow. Hopefully an over achiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 CLE managed to tie a record low yesterday coming in at -3. The funny thing is that record low of -3 just happens to be the "warmest" record low for the 2 month core of winter period between mid December and late February. Kind of cool to see that sneak by. As for tomorrow the NAM and GFS are in agreement with a pretty narrow swath of 2-4" centered right over I-90 going all the way back through Indiana. These always waffle a bit, but it would nice to get a refresher snow, and after all we are due to be the jackpot for at least one storm this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Turned out to be a reasonable nice day with the sunshine. Nam seems to have beefed up totals for tomorrow and cle is still honking the les potential. Here's to an overperformer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Visible satellite showed that there was a pretty large crack that formed yesterday just offshore and just to the east of the Erie Islands with the southwest winds. Definitely bears watching if the winds line up just right. GFS now up to 4.5" of snow tomorrow. NAM with a modest 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think you guys will get a fair enough amount of snow over the next 36 hours. I think you're in good shape for maybe an inch of so this evening with the wave of snow currently approaching...and given the high snow ratios and pretty good vertical velocities showing up in the middle of the DGZ tomorrow morning I think I can buy into a general 2-4" tomorrow morning across a swath of Northern Ohio. Some models suggest the heaviest snow may stay a bit south of Cleveland but I still think at least 2" is doable. There would be pretty significant LES tomorrow afternoon into Monday if the lake wasn't frozen, and the crack in the ice is about as big if not bigger than it was a couple of Thursdays ago when we had that surprise convergence band drop 3-7". For now I'll take the safe play and go 1-3" from Cleveland east of additional snow from lake effect starting tomorrow afternoon but there is some chance it's more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Snow seems be having a hard time moving east... Not surprising given the dry air. Not sure how much that will cut into accum's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 As soon as the best returns on radar moved away, a steady snowfall began. The radar is definitely not representative of what is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Picked up 2.8" total from yesterday evening. Sun just popped out here. Winds look to align nicely this afternoon through tomorrow, but we'll see what the lake can produce. I don't have too high of expectations, but this has decent surprise snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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