NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Anyone have euro text output for CLE? Latest AFD mentions the mix potential working it's way north. It looks like it might make it up the point where summit and portage meet Cuyahoga. But that'd mean some of the best snow potentials would be just north and west of there. Expectations are running high with this storm here. The media hype has been pretty intense. It seems almost impossible at this point to get less than 5". And if that happens we'll probably have a nice layer of sleet and freezing rain to accompany that. I'll make a call of 7.2" IMBY. CLE will roll in with 5.3" on a wind swept runway. The euro info I got was from the eurowx site. No text data, but shows a solid 9-12 across the area... with lesser amount east of 71. The mix line will make a run north. My confidence is growing that we'll be sniffing it at some point. But not for long so accum's won't be hurt that much. I'll stick with 9.5" imby, 10"+ over on the west side. CLE's final total - 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z NAM crushes this area. Not buying it a bit since it has been flopping. Fun to see nonetheless. Clown maps will be off the charts with that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z NAM crushes this area. Not buying it a bit since it has been flopping. Fun to see nonetheless. Clown maps will be off the charts with that run. Haha! 16-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Haha! 16-20". If only... maybe a few jackpot areas that see 12"+ if lake enhancement delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow those totals would be awesome! Light snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I still like 6-10" for Cleveland with locally a foot if lake enhancement pans out. You guys are in a good spot. It looks like surface temps are running colder than progged here so I may see more ice than I thought I would...will be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Light snow started around 6:30 with the well forecasted band of snow. The band has now moved north.... About .5 so far. The models did a good job picking up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That band dropped 1.5" here. Even CLE picked up an inch in an hour according to the METAR between 6 and 7pm. Dry air evident around Akron. 6-10" still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 That band dropped 1.5" here. Even CLE picked up an inch in an hour according to the METAR between 6 and 7pm. Dry air evident around Akron. 6-10" still looks good. Nice. Another razor's edge line with the snow... i bet areas just a few miles south of here didn't pick up anything. Wall of snow pushing in now from the SW so everyone should do well tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hello all, Long time lurker here from Strongsville. This storm convinced me to make an account as it has been such a ride trying to forecast it. It appears that high pressure is really not helping out with the snow up here. Models still suggest a decent amount of snow will fall, but I am becoming skeptical. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not sure what to think. We'll likely be riding the southern end of the snow shield as the upper level low passes. Really hard to say how that will perform. Last night's snow surely under performed. The heavy stuff just never made it that far north. Snowing nicely now, so there should be some recovery. Totals will probably be on the low end of forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Picked up 3" as of 6:30am. The consistency sure makes is seem a lot more substantial. Ratio's must have been really low. This convective snow is great. Huge flakes with a dense consistency. Not sure what to think for the rest of the day... we are going to be on the southern edge of the ULL snows. Just how farth the snow moves is the question... going to be another fine line between heavy snow and cloudy skies. Hopefully the snow band will at least settle into the lakeshore counties. Edit: This snow was easy to measure being so dense. CLE shouldn't have anything problem getting an accurate measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Radar doesn't bode well as the heaviest snows are moving north as the ULL may come overhead. As the low weakens and moves east, the snow may just dissipate before moving back in. If that happens amounts will verify really low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Really need to see some back end snow start to pick up or it's kind of a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Really slick out there. 3 maybe 4" guessing. Wonder if we ended up mixing at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Down in kent got about 3-4 inches and then icing. That will be it unless this starts to wrap around better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Really slick out there. 3 maybe 4" guessing. Wonder if we ended up mixing at all? Most cities are running out, or are out of salt. Doesn't seem like they've touched the roads in places. Picked up 1"+ since 6:30 so over 4" now. The only time the mix line came close was around 6-7am. I noticed a few drops on my windshield but it was pouring snow as well. Models really handled this storm poorly. Hopefully we'll see the radar fill back in as the low passes and winds come around to the north. Not holding my breath though. I think the ship has sailed on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 At about 6 am the mix line looked like it had made it to far southwestern Cuyahoga County. The most intense part of the storm was 7-9am so from a visible impact, it was impressive. I'm still surprised that huge slug of precip didn't make it that far north last night. Goes to show how terrible the models are. QPF with this was insanely high on the models. Even the euro held firm with .75-1.00" the past few days. Winds now are very gusty out of the NE. I'm betting CLE comes in around 4-5" storm total with measuring problems. Hopefully when the winds shift to the north and northwest this afternoon it will be enough to seed some enhancement for a bonus 1-2". All in all, a "decent" storm, but definitely under performed thus far. I need to relook my "big storm" snowfall expectations. For any event pegged to drop at least 6" of snow, look for the model guidance that shows the least amount of snow falling and deduct a few inches for a realistic expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 At about 6 am the mix line looked like it had made it to far southwestern Cuyahoga County. The most intense part of the storm was 7-9am so from a visible impact, it was impressive. I'm still surprised that huge slug of precip didn't make it that far north last night. Goes to show how terrible the models are. QPF with this was insanely high on the models. Even the euro held firm with .75-1.00" the past few days. Winds now are very gusty out of the NE. I'm betting CLE comes in around 4-5" storm total with measuring problems. Hopefully when the winds shift to the north and northwest this afternoon it will be enough to seed some enhancement for a bonus 1-2". All in all, a "decent" storm, but definitely under performed thus far. I need to relook my "big storm" snowfall expectations. For any event pegged to drop at least 6" of snow, look for the model guidance that shows the least amount of snow falling and deduct a few inches for a realistic expectation. Definitely an underperformer IMO. Too early to call a bust, but I fell into the typical storm hype. With almost every model showing a decent hit it was hard not to. If there was more open water we could probably make a late rally. Not so sure though with ice cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 And radar has cleared. Now we wait for lake effect. But NE winds likely pushed the ice westward. CLE should have at least 5" from this. KCLE 051351Z 02018KT 1/2SM -SN FZFG VV010 M04/M06 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP089 SNINCR 1/8 P0008 T10391061 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Since I know less about winter weather, I must ask...is the lake effect expected to turn on now for NE Ohio? Overall nasty but not quite what the hype was. Maybe 4-5 in in northern Summit County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I have no idea what caused the drifting! Our driveway has a large bare spot and drifts that might reach 15 inches. Yet the wind readings from Burke were light until 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looking at the radar we might have a chance at the back end wrapping around and getting us some bonus. returns are starting to show up where they were initially dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 You can clearly see the low overhead on the satellite imagery. Probably 2 hours or so before anything gets going. Even then it might not be much give the ice cover. The defo band to the west may slide north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You can clearly see the low overhead on the satellite imagery. Probably 2 hours or so before anything gets going. Even then it might not be much give the ice cover. The defo band to the west may slide north. I got my money on the defo band. LES is going to be hard to judge so I'm going to go ahead and ignore it until it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I called it a few days ago. This was essentially a December 26, 2012 redux. Lots of model support for a significant event. But in the end the front end snows thumped Columbus, died out as they made it north as the main low trended farther SE, and then the upper level low snows explode over SE Michigan and Northern Indiana and then slide just to our north. It's a carbon copy. We're not going to get a "significant" snowstorm with this set up. We need the comma head snows to slide up 71 without that ULL snows to our west to screw things up. Surely it snowed, but chalk up another 4-6" storm that didn't live up to the hype or model expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I got my money on the defo band. LES is going to be hard to judge so I'm going to go ahead and ignore it until it's happening My gut tells me we are going to watch the defo snows slowly decay as they slide east with the energy heading to the east coast. Hopefully that's not the case but radar isn't looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 My gut tells me we are going to watch the defo snows slowly decay as they slide east with the energy heading to the east coast. Hopefully that's not the case but radar isn't looking great. Of course, starting to die out. They starting looking good for a short time as it tried to fill in but now....yea pooped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Perhaps wishful thinking, but returns are just now starting to pop near Sandusky inland as the winds shift more NNW. Grasping at straws here, but let's see what this does here in an hour or two. Still possible to salvage an inch or two more of lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I called it a few days ago. This was essentially a December 26, 2012 redux. Lots of model support for a significant event. But in the end the front end snows thumped Columbus, died out as they made it north as the main low trended farther SE, and then the upper level low snows explode over SE Michigan and Northern Indiana and then slide just to our north. It's a carbon copy. We're not going to get a "significant" snowstorm with this set up. We need the comma head snows to slide up 71 without that ULL snows to our west to screw things up. Surely it snowed, but chalk up another 4-6" storm that didn't live up to the hype or model expectations. Forgot about that. That was a good call on your part... you eternal pessemist Another ho hum snowfall. Perhaps an inch or two will be in the low range of the forecast. Looks we missed the heaviest snows to the west, south and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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