NEOH Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hmm surprised CLE already issued a warning. Looks like 6-10". Well, there is pretty good model consensus at this point. Should be our best synoptic storm of the season. If we can avoid any slotting issues amounts could verify on the higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well, there is pretty good model consensus at this point. Should be our best synoptic storm of the season. If we can avoid any slotting issues amounts could verify on the higher end. Ya definitely true. Should be a good storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM slowly improving in the right direction. Pretty good hit for CLE on the latest run. SREF plumes continue to rise with several over 10". Definitely good signs. With the way snowfall forecasts have been this winter, I'm not surprised the warning was pulled right now. This has been modeled to be a big hit here for awhile now and looks to be the most significant synoptic storm in a few years. Ironically, it will have low travel impact starting after most people get home from work and wrapping up by the time people get up on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Trent, do you have a link where you get the sref plumes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM slowly improving in the right direction. Pretty good hit for CLE on the latest run. SREF plumes continue to rise with several over 10". Definitely good signs. With the way snowfall forecasts have been this winter, I'm not surprised the warning was pulled right now. This has been modeled to be a big hit here for awhile now and looks to be the most significant synoptic storm in a few years. Ironically, it will have low travel impact starting after most people get home from work and wrapping up by the time people get up on Wednesday. CLE mentioned in the AFD that a quicker transfer could reduce snowfall amounts. Not sure I see that happening at this point. Snow should still be coming down Wednesday morning for the commute. Seems like the trend has been to slow things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Trent, do you have a link where you get the sref plumes? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130304&RT=03&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=CLE&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Provided there are no last minute shifts were are sitting in a great spot... With the usual caveats such as the dry slot, mix line pushing in from the south, quick transfer etc. Don't think the dry slot will make it any further north than mfd or so. I'm done model hugging... Time so sit back and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Provided there are no last minute shifts were are sitting in a great spot... With the usual caveats such as the dry slot, mix line pushing in from the south, quick transfer etc. Don't think the dry slot will make it any further north than mfd or so. I'm done model hugging... Time so sit back and see what happens. Yeah, It's an odd feeling being in the sweet spot a day out. Lots that could go well and lots that could go wrong. You've got dry slot potential, storm whiffs to the south and east too quickly, or this thing ramps up and we have mixing problems. But taking a model consensus and average we sit well for 6-10". Satellite imagery shows lots of ice cover, but the rain and winds have really turned it to slush. Hopefully that's enough to tack on a few extra inches with some enhancement/LES on Wednesday morning and afternoon. I'm hoping this is also the storm where CLE can redeem themselves with an excellent forecast and timely winter storm warnings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130304&RT=03&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=CLE&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Awesome thanks man! Everything continues to look great. Looks like the newest Nam might have been even wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll post this in here since it would make the Columbus posters upset. This hit the web several hours ago so hopefully it's right. My general reasoning at the time (I haven't changed my mind too much since) is with the shortwave taking on a negative tilt over TX Tuesday afternoon it is unlikely that we get a sloppy low pressure center to track from central KY to near Pittsburgh like many global models showed. It looked to me that the global models were having convective feedback issues and that the NAM and SREF's were generally more logical with their low placement. Regardless, even the GFS and Euro track the 850mb low just south of the Lake Erie shoreline which is often a tell tale sign of where mixing/dry slot issues will get to. Considering the mid level low track on even the farther south global models is so far north and the fact that I'm personally buying a surface low track from near Cincinnati to near Youngstown I was not afraid to go against the grain a bit and put heavier amounts along the lakeshore. There may be some lake enhancement on Wednesday which could push local totals to a foot if the synoptic snow isn't a flop. Considering I'm expecting a more organized low and regardless, there's decent model consensus on over .5" of QPF, I feel pretty good about 6-10" for Cleveland proper. Given the reasoning discussed above and the tendency to under-do the warm surge ahead of the low I also felt pretty good about cutting amounts off faster on the southern end than the NWS (both CLE and ILN) and a lot of guidance does...although this map actually resembles the 3z SREF's pretty well. Just in case anyone from central OH is peaking in here...before you bring out the pitch forks...I have my reasoning. At the time, the NAM/SREF track and 850mb temperatures only suggested a 4-6 hour period of snow for Columbus (and the 0z GFS and Canadian have also trended that direction). I think we all know where there is a short window for snow and you need 1-2" per hour rates for most of that window to hit model projections that you may be in trouble. If the WAA snows do well I could see parts of my 2-4" locally exceeding 4" but in general I do not think 6"+ amounts are likely in Columbus. It is possible that parts of NW OH struggle to see much more than 6" but I was too lazy to include it on this map. At the end of the day I agree with winter storm warnings from CLE for their entire CWA due to snow/blowing snow in the northern 2/3rds and snow/ice in their SE counties. Columbus probably needs the warning ILN issued as well but I think they'll see more ice and less snow than ILN thinks. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 C'mon OH, you're just bitter over your flood watch. Just kidding... I actually agree that we see more ice than what is being forecasted. I said in the other thread I was surprised with ILN's forecast of all snow. Although I done agree with you about a stronger storm. That little negative tilt gets squashed cause it cant come North. My issue is the track which is a bit to the left of our perfect snow track. It helps that the precipitation is a frontend thump. Im thinking 3-5 with mod icing....but hoping ILN pulls it off. You still feeling it for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 C'mon OH, you're just bitter over your flood watch. Just kidding... I actually agree that we see more ice than what is being forecasted. I said in the other thread I was surprised with ILN's forecast of all snow. Although I done agree with you about a stronger storm. That little negative tilt gets squashed cause it cant come North. My issue is the track which is a bit to the left of our perfect snow track. It helps that the precipitation is a frontend thump. Im thinking 3-5 with mod icing....but hoping ILN pulls it off. You still feeling it for the weekend? Haha, I've been at peace here for almost a week. This morning's thump and subsequent snow day at OU helped.I don't think the low will be much stronger but am leaning on the left side of the possible tracks. I went 2-4" for you guys but 3-5" is certainly a fair call. If the WAA snow is able to really rip you could see more than 4" but I wanted to lean conservative. We'll see. Part of me wants to nail the forecast but I wouldn't mind if you guys pull it off in central Ohio. I still like the weekend south of I-70 and also east of I-77 farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 IF forecasted snowfall amounts were to verify for Erie, it would put them in the 100-104 " range and they might even make a run for the top 10 spot if the pattern remains active as it is right now. GREATEST 1. 149.1 2000-01 2. 145.8 2008-09 3. 143.0 2002-03 4. 142.8 1977-78 5. 131.3 1993-94 6. 129.2 1995-96 7. 124.9 1985-86 8. 122.6 2004-059. 120.0 1970-71 10.118.7 2007-08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well, Everything looks even better for our storm today. SREF plumes have a mean of 10.5", with 5 of them over a foot, and a max of 16.5". Even the worst case scenario is 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we hit the ceiling as far as what the models can tell us. Now just have to watch as the storm develops to see where heaviest bands set up and just how far north 850s get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at NAM thermals, this will not be a light and fluffy snow. Especially as the trends have been ticking slightly NW, the mixing line will be knocking at our door. With surface temps in the low to mid 20s, this will probably be a denser dry, sugar type snow. These sometimes aren't great for very high accumulations, but will be great for building snowpack. I almost prefer these to the cement or fluff snows as they tend to not settle afterwards or shrink the existing snow on the ground. Looks like wind will be a concern tonight, so the airport will probably come in with a low ball measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Like where I'm sitting in kent. Have some wiggle room north and south. Might be able to smell that rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at NAM thermals, this will not be a light and fluffy snow. Especially as the trends have been ticking slightly NW, the mixing line will be knocking at our door. With surface temps in the low to mid 20s, this will probably be a denser dry, sugar type snow. These sometimes aren't great for very high accumulations, but will be great for building snowpack. I almost prefer these to the cement or fluff snows as they tend to not settle afterwards or shrink the existing snow on the ground. Looks like wind will be a concern tonight, so the airport will probably come in with a low ball measurement. Its definitely going to be a more dense snow than the fluff we've had most of the winter. Good to see the SREF up to 10". After reading OHWeather's forecast, and looking at the models, we will be sweating the dry slot, and mix line for awhile. We may see the dry slot creep up to the 30 corridor, if not a little further north. Hopefully it will pivot south of the area. According to the bufkit cobb data, the NAM is much more bullish with precip... .70 vs the GFS which showed .49. Big difference considering the time frame. I think one of the big factors will be how quickly the transfer occurs, and how long the defo band hangs back. Final call for MBY 9.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 7-13" in my point forecast. CLE's snowfall map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z NAM = congrats lake erie! Still a nice hit. Just read BUF's AFD. Going with 1/3/96 as analog. Great storm for northern ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z NAM = congrats lake erie! Still a nice hit. Just read BUF's AFD. Going with 1/3/96 as analog. Great storm for northern ohio. NAM is still a great hit, but hints at what could go wrong ... Best banding initially starts over the lake while we wait for the snows to arrive from the south. That quickly ends by morning and the back end snows hit michigan and Indiana as they slide just to our north. It actually looks awfully similar to how we got screwed on December 26, 2012. It's just one run and if you average that with the other models, we still sit in a pretty good spot. SREF mean dropped to 9" but there's nothing under 6". My expectations for this storm are 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is still a great hit, but hints at what could go wrong ... Best banding initially starts over the lake while we wait for the snows to arrive from the south. That quickly ends by morning and the back end snows hit michigan and Indiana as they slide just to our north. It actually looks awfully similar to how we got screwed on December 26, 2012. It's just one run and if you average that with the other models, we still sit in a pretty good spot. SREF mean dropped to 9" but there's nothing under 6". My expectations for this storm are 6-8". Yeah, the initial band will have a major impact on snow totals wherever it sets up. I'm not overly concerned with the nam run. If the gfs and short term guidance follows suit then the flags will be raised. Still think the area see's a general 6-10" snowfall... possibly more. Need to keep the 850 low southeast of the area to see the heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hmm mid morning models shifted the heavy snow band north. Seems like last night it was south lol. Hopefully it ends up in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hmm mid morning models shifted the heavy snow band north. Seems like last night it was south lol. Hopefully it ends up in the middle. The GFS was pretty much status quo for this area. The NAM qpf was as well. The "major" change was the thump of snow to the NW of us on the NAM... probably the least consistent model with this storm. Other than that, seems like qpf output held steady. I'd much rather be in a position that has shown consistency... which we are. NW trend hype is all over the storm thread. But nothing has really changed much for this area snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yea the whole nw trend thing is kind of annoying. It's a different pattern. So chances are it won't verify next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yea the whole nw trend thing is kind of annoying. It's a different pattern. So chances are it won't verify next run If the Euro jumps on board I'll be concerned. Otherwise, there are a variety of model solutions that show a great hit for our area. We'll be riding a fine line here. Hopefully we find ourselves on the snowy side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Latest RAP is golden for Cleveland. Both the hi res models on the NCEP site, hot off the presses, look great for northeast Ohio as well. It's going to snow tonight regardless. Whether it's a ho hum 5" or a foot still remains to be seen ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Latest RAP is golden for Cleveland. Both the hi res models on the NCEP site, hot off the presses, look great for northeast Ohio as well. It's going to snow tonight regardless. Whether it's a ho hum 5" or a foot still remains to be seen ... Good to hear. I'll stick with the hi-res from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 No red flags on the euro. Looks a little wetter actually. We will definitely have to worry about the mix line/dry slot for a brief time. Defo band looks to hang around but we'll be on the SW flank. Looks like the mix line and/or dry slot makes it to Portage county or so. Not sure how accurate that it is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Anyone have euro text output for CLE? Latest AFD mentions the mix potential working it's way north. It looks like it might make it up the point where summit and portage meet Cuyahoga. But that'd mean some of the best snow potentials would be just north and west of there. Expectations are running high with this storm here. The media hype has been pretty intense. It seems almost impossible at this point to get less than 5". And if that happens we'll probably have a nice layer of sleet and freezing rain to accompany that. I'll make a call of 7.2" IMBY. CLE will roll in with 5.3" on a wind swept runway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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