NEOH Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 With the trends in the models for the weekend event we may just get missed by the heavier precip which would be a good thing for retaining snow cover. NW ohio and SE MI get soaked while we get a band of rain as the storm passes to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yep. Talk about a northwest trend, we might get by with just a tenth or two instead of a washout. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas flirt with 50 over the weekend as the warm intrusion is likely under modeled. I'd say we hold on to quite a bit of snow though. This warm up is short lived and without a lot of rain, we'll probably only melt an inch or two. Next week's storm is starting to have ice storm written all over it. But still days away and lots yet to change on the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like I'll be driving through snow later this afternoon which is nice. It will be interesting to see how warm temps can get tomorrow. SE Ohio will definitely be in the 50's, we'll see what northern OH can do. At this point I'd almost say an ice storm is more likely than mostly snow for northern OH with next week's system. The pattern favors this storm trending NW to a certain extent and the GFS is back NW a bit this run. It still keeps the surface low south of Cleveland which would limit how warm the surface temps would get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like I'll be driving through snow later this afternoon which is nice. It will be interesting to see how warm temps can get tomorrow. SE Ohio will definitely be in the 50's, we'll see what northern OH can do. At this point I'd almost say an ice storm is more likely than mostly snow for northern OH with next week's system. The pattern favors this storm trending NW to a certain extent and the GFS is back NW a bit this run. It still keeps the surface low south of Cleveland which would limit how warm the surface temps would get. Nothing stops the warmth from reaching the lake erie shoreline! We'll be warmer than expected. At least we won't be dealing with 35 and a soaking, snow melting rain. I'm going to enjoy the mild temps. Not sure what to think about next week. From what I've read, the ensembles are still SE of the OP runs. Once they climb onboard I'll abandon the snow ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nothing stops the warmth from reaching the lake erie shoreline! We'll be warmer than expected. At least we won't be dealing with 35 and a soaking, snow melting rain. I'm going to enjoy the mild temps. Not sure what to think about next week. From what I've read, the ensembles are still SE of the OP runs. Once they climb onboard I'll abandon the snow ship. The ensembles are SE of the operationals in general, although the 6z GFS ensembles mean did get the 0C 850mb line up to Lake Erie which is a trend NW. This is probably more likely to trend NW than SE, although nothing is "impossible" at this point so it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Up to 35/32 IMBY. What time does the front come through tonight? Might retain quite a bit of snow cover at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like it keeps a lot of the rain north still might come out of this without loosing much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 37/35 outside. Looks like another 6 hours or so before temps drop. Still a solid 5 inches of wet snow pack. Heavier rain is moving in... It will be interesting to see what's around in the am. Mid week storm still looks like a close call... But I'm optimistic for a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just depressing outside. The heavy rain has hugged the shoreline all day. Temps, surprisingly, didn't surge as high as I thought, but who knows what they'll do just prior to the frontal passage. I measured 6" on the ground this morning. I haven't been out to measure yet this evening, but it had to drop a few inches. I still remain optimistic for Tuesday night. Could be one of those snows where it starts after everyone gets home from work Tuesday and is long gone when everyone wakes up on Wednesday. Or it could be a bunch of rain that dwindles the snowpack further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And for what it's worth ... the 18z GFS changes the rain over tonight and gives us 2.8" snow. The 00z NAM hot off the presses does the same and gives us 2.5" by mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Didn't expect to wake to a winter wonderland scene outside. Looke 1.5" of paste, and still coming down. CLe issued a wwa for 2-4". Nice surprise. We managed to avoid most of the heavy rain yesterday. A very solid 4-5 otg still. The models seems to have agreed on the track for next weeks storm... Outside of the nam. Should be our best storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Didn't expect to wake to a winter wonderland scene outside. Looke 1.5" of paste, and still coming down. CLe issued a wwa for 2-4". Nice surprise. We managed to avoid most of the heavy rain yesterday. A very solid 4-5 otg still. The models seems to have agreed on the track for next weeks storm... Outside of the nam. Should be our best storm of the year. Absolutely incredible. I thought the NAM was being the NAM last night showing that early changeover. Over 4" of heavy wet plastering snow here. Looping the radar, looks like a band just hugged the lake overnight. Chalk up another bust this winter ... but at least this was a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Absolutely incredible. I thought the NAM was being the NAM last night showing that early changeover. Over 4" of heavy wet plastering snow here. Looping the radar, looks like a band just hugged the lake overnight. Chalk up another bust this winter ... but at least this was a good one! Wow. That band must have been razor thin. Big time gradient as I'm only at 2" or so. Sometimes it's good to have ice on the lake as I'm sure that helped cool things near the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice little surprise start to February - a little over 3" here. Looks very pretty out, about 5-6" on the ground. Hopefully Feb will continue to start well with the Tues-Weds & next weekend possibilities. January came in well below avg IMBY, 22" under (31.5" this year / normal Jan is 53.5"). For the season Nov thru Jan, right on annual average - 106". To drive home the point of SW winds this winter, the official total for the city of Erie (recorded at the airport, about 15 miles due north of my house) is WELL ABOVE normal for Nov-Jan; 92" for this season, average is 67" - that's 37% above average! Wish I could translate that increase to my seasonal totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow. That band must have been razor thin. Big time gradient as I'm only at 2" or so. Sometimes it's good to have ice on the lake as I'm sure that helped cool things near the shoreline. Looking at the PNS this morning, you can thank mostly frozen Lake Erie for the coastal lake shore's advisory snowfall last night. When winds shifted northerly, all the areas along the coast were able to dip right down to freezing. I am blowing CLE out of the water in terms of seasonal snowfall. Amazing they only had 1.5" through 7am, but being several miles inland probably hurt them. This was a pretty easy snowfall to measure as well; wet snow, non drifted, coating everything. The airport missed out on the October lake effect, missed out on the Christmas Eve lake effect, missed out on that early December two hour intense lakeshore convergence band, missed the best banding on New Years, and missed the best snow last night. So even with some of their poor measurements in windy events, the airport has been in a localized snowfall minimum that is not representative of the region's snowfall this winter. You can tack on another half inch to this after I took this picture of new snow on the snow board: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thoughts for Tuesday - Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking at the PNS this morning, you can thank mostly frozen Lake Erie for the coastal lake shore's advisory snowfall last night. When winds shifted northerly, all the areas along the coast were able to dip right down to freezing. I am blowing CLE out of the water in terms of seasonal snowfall. Amazing they only had 1.5" through 7am, but being several miles inland probably hurt them. This was a pretty easy snowfall to measure as well; wet snow, non drifted, coating everything. The airport missed out on the October lake effect, missed out on the Christmas Eve lake effect, missed out on that early December two hour intense lakeshore convergence band, missed the best banding on New Years, and missed the best snow last night. So even with some of their poor measurements in windy events, the airport has been in a localized snowfall minimum that is not representative of the region's snowfall this winter. You can tack on another half inch to this after I took this picture of new snow on the snow board: Nice. 1.9" will be my total. Not sure what time the snow started by the shoreline, but at 12:30 or last night it was still 35 imby. No doubt the ice cover helped drop temps quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thoughts for Tuesday - Wednesday? Here's my WAG... 6-9" of wet snow for the northern tier counties, mixing makes it up to the 30 corridor for a short time as the low moves to the OH,WV,KY border. We are going need the low to take a hard right instead of driving too far north. Again, just a guess on my part. I'm sure OHWeather will put out a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I had typed out a post and thought it posted a little bit ago but it looks like it didn't I'll look at more later but my general thinking is Cleveland stays mostly snow with 6"+ a decent possibility...mixing and dry slot issues will be near by though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 I had typed out a post and thought it posted a little bit ago but it looks like it didn't I'll look at more later but my general thinking is Cleveland stays mostly snow with 6"+ a decent possibility...mixing and dry slot issues will be near by though. Yeah, we are going to sweat the mix line for awhile I'm sure. 6"+ seems like a good bet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Suprised to see CLE issue a WSW so quickly. 6-10" seems like a good call provided there are no major shifts. THE BIG CONCERN THRU WED NIGHT WILL BE THE TRACK OF A LOW THAT MOVES FROM EAST TX NE INTO WV BY WED MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATER WED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD STAY JUST FAR ENOUGH SE OF THE AREA TO KEEP THE PRECIP AS SNOW. THE TRACK SHOULD ALSO PUT THE CWA IN THE SWEET SPOT FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND ON THE NW SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE SNOW MAY START LATE IN THE DAY TUE IN THE FAR WEST THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF TUE NIGHT. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY WED MORNING AS THE BETTER ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTSENE OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY WED AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY START TO OCCUR BY AFTERNOON.THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT UP A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING LATE TUE IN THE WEST AND RUN IT THRU ABOUT NOON ON WED IN THE WEST AND 4 PM IN THE EAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm having flashbacks of Boxing Day 2012. Excellent model support for days in advance. Euro held serve as well. But the day of featured just a quick thump, with TROWAL snows stealing the show over Michigan and Indiana. I think we were under a warning for 8-12, but 3-6" was what actually fell. I'll remain cautious until tomorrow. But would be nice to get warning snow from one of these types of lows, it's been years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hopefully the northern edge doesn't continue to dry out on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm having flashbacks of Boxing Day 2012. Excellent model support for days in advance. Euro held serve as well. But the day of featured just a quick thump, with TROWAL snows stealing the show over Michigan and Indiana. I think we were under a warning for 8-12, but 3-6" was what actually fell. I'll remain cautious until tomorrow. But would be nice to get warning snow from one of these types of lows, it's been years! I'm actually more concerned with the higher totals missing us to the south. Still think we are in a pretty good spot... with a little more room to breathe on the NW side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm actually more concerned with the higher totals missing us to the south. Still think we are in a pretty good spot... with a little more room to breathe on the NW side of the storm. Euro had 0.96" of QPF at CLE. That's a good sign... I can even live with a 30% reduction of that. SREF Plumes are also on the rise. Definitely good signs, but nothing set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro had 0.96" of QPF at CLE. That's a good sign... I can even live with a 30% reduction of that. SREF Plumes are also on the rise. Definitely good signs, but nothing set in stone yet. That's good to see. Thought the euro had dried out but apparently not. The euro has been rock solid with this storm so no reason not to ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Liking the increase in output. Storms that do come our way have performed well if not over performed so let's hope that's going to happen here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm actually more concerned with the higher totals missing us to the south. Still think we are in a pretty good spot... with a little more room to breathe on the NW side of the storm. Wow. I didn't even think this possibility was on the table. Latest GFS just grazes us with everything south and east. Looks like barely a quarter inch of QPF for northern Ohio. The site I used to for Euro data might not have been updated so it could actually be drier than I thought. Confidence is high now that we remain all snow, but just how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow. I didn't even think this possibility was on the table. Latest GFS just grazes us with everything south and east. Looks like barely a quarter inch of QPF for northern Ohio. The site I used to for Euro data might not have been updated so it could actually be drier than I thought. Confidence is high now that we remain all snow, but just how much? Well, I was partly joking... but if the GFS verified it would be a whiff to the SE. So, we have the NAM that is probably to far NW, and the GFS which is probably to far SE. Split the difference and we are in a good spot. Today's Euro should be telling. Hopefully it holds steady as it has been doing. I do think our chances for an all snow event are pretty good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hmm surprised CLE already issued a warning. Looks like 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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