Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[NEOH]

We did -17 here. Tonight may be colder in Athens if we can decouple quicker...winds didn't go calm until after 1:00AM.

 

Nice. Classes cancelled again? Should be frigid again here.

 

Looks like the Euro is less amped and further south with weekend system. Still looks like rain here... but not a torch or washout. Still plenty of time for changes either way, but hopefully we'll avoid another snowpack eater.

[Trent]

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2014/01/clevelands_5th_sub-zero_januar.html#incart_river_default#incart_m-rpt-2

It's interesting how the temperatures this month have not followed a typical low in the morning and high in the afternoon. The lack of a diurnal heating effect has really put up weird stats on the monthly summary. While yes, there have been 5 days below zero, there have really been only 3 occurrences below zero as 11:59pm lows count as an extra day. Conversely that same effect has been able to artificially "prop up" the number of warm days we've seen this month. The highs and lows for the day this month don't really paint a good picture of what happened in this area.

When the month is over I'm going to see what the average temperature was using the high plus low divide by two method and then compare to an average of all the hourly temps to see if that changes things a bit.

[Trent]

I just browsed what time the highs and lows occurred on my weather station:

14 of 28 days featured a high around midnight.

16 of 28 days featured a low around midnight.

Only 11 of 28 days had a high between noon and 5pm. Only 8 of 28 days had a low between 4 and 9am.

[OHweather]

Nice. Classes cancelled again? Should be frigid again here.

 

Looks like the Euro is less amped and further south with weekend system. Still looks like rain here... but not a torch or washout. Still plenty of time for changes either way, but hopefully we'll avoid another snowpack eater.

We were open yesterday...they closed today. They seem pretty insistent on opening at 10:00AM tomorrow which doesn't do anything for me and all of my afternoon classes.

 

Looking at this weekend...I'm skeptical of the northern solutions. While yes there is a +NAO and room for a phased storm to track to our north, I think the energy coming out of the southwest may get supressed a bit by the northern stream shortwave...the models show the energy in the southwest coming out behind the northern shortwave. This makes me think the system will be less phased and track a bit farther south...somewhere between I-70 and Cleveland.

 

With that said any track north of I-70 would still bring mixing to northern Ohio. An issue I see for the weekend is it will be tracking more WSW-ENE as opposed to more SSW-NNE, so it may take time to bring surface warm air in...so we could see a decent period of ice. With such a cold week, ground and road temps will likely be well below freezing so we could see icing on roads for a while even with temps above freezing. I'll be home this weekend so perhaps I'm just wishcasting for fun but even if we don't see snow, I sort of doubt we just see a plain rain with no impacts.

[NEOH]

We were open yesterday...they closed today. They seem pretty insistent on opening at 10:00AM tomorrow which doesn't do anything for me and all of my afternoon classes.

 

Looking at this weekend...I'm skeptical of the northern solutions. While yes there is a +NAO and room for a phased storm to track to our north, I think the energy coming out of the southwest may get supressed a bit by the northern stream shortwave...the models show the energy in the southwest coming out behind the northern shortwave. This makes me think the system will be less phased and track a bit farther south...somewhere between I-70 and Cleveland.

 

With that said any track north of I-70 would still bring mixing to northern Ohio. An issue I see for the weekend is it will be tracking more WSW-ENE as opposed to more SSW-NNE, so it may take time to bring surface warm air in...so we could see a decent period of ice. With such a cold week, ground and road temps will likely be well below freezing so we could see icing on roads for a while even with temps above freezing. I'll be home this weekend so perhaps I'm just wishcasting for fun but even if we don't see snow, I sort of doubt we just see a plain rain with no impacts.

 

It's easy to get caught up in one model run... but it was good to see the euro showing a weaker and more southern solution. Wouldn't surprise me to see the storm come right over CLE. No doubt the cold ground and road temps will cause issues. Some places out here are only salting intersections so the roads are mostly snow covered outside of the tire tracks. No harm in wishcasting... just read the other threads about how every modeled storm is coming defintely coming "NW". 

[Trent]

It's easy to see how BKL recorded a 60 mph gust the other day:

 

Tonight's sub zero lows should freeze this up a bit more solid. 

 

[NEOH]

It's easy to see how BKL recorded a 60 mph gust the other day:

 

Tonight's sub zero lows should freeze this up a bit more solid. 

 

a1.14028.1900.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

Wow. The western basin is just choked with ice. Are you keeping track of snowfall at your new work location by any chance? That area has been the jackpot this winter so I was wondering what the total was at this point.

[Trent]

Wow. The western basin is just choked with ice. Are you keeping track of snowfall at your new work location by any chance? That area has been the jackpot this winter so I was wondering what the total was at this point.

I have been keeping track. Right now it's between 75-80". That's pretty respectable for that area this early in the season. They've somehow managed to be in the right spot for whatever LES that happened to form this year.

[NEOH]

I have been keeping track. Right now it's between 75-80". That's pretty respectable for that area this early in the season. They've somehow managed to be in the right spot for whatever LES that happened to form this year.

 

Thanks. Yeah, that area has done really well this winter. It will be interesting to see the final snowfall map for the area... assuming there will not be a significant LES event, the snow distribution will be much more uniform than we've seen in the past from eastern cuyahoga county into geauga, with a sharp cut off south of 422.

[Trent]

Friday and Saturday are looking interesting. Models haven't honed in on a solution, but trends haven't been half bad. Half of the SREF plumes are now over 5 inches.

Could be a snow to rain scenario, but if it's not a net snowpack loser, I can accept that.

Looks like the previous Saturday/Sunday two storm total sits at just 4.7" for KCLE, no corrections have been made. That's at least 3" low balled.

[OHweather]

CLE got back to me and didn't specifically tell me why the final climo showed lower snow last weekend, just told me that the final climo report is the one to go with as sometimes there are errors in the first one and that they double check and make changes if necessary for the final one. Oh well.

 

I'm glad the models are trying to tick back south this weekend. I've been on the farther south train for a few days now and the models haven't been very nice for me, looks like they're trying to inch south and at least give us a good mixed precip threat on Saturday. Mainly snow would be nice since I'll be home and it sounds like I'm missing a good snow pack up there right now.

[Trent]

With regards to next week's potential big dog snow, there's the possibility for a pretty rare event to unfold if things were to play out right.

With Lake Erie completely frozen over from Cleveland to Buffalo, a low pressure tracking to our SE would cause significant NE winds to push any accumulated snows on Lake Erie uninhibited for hundreds of miles until hitting the shore between Downtown Cleveland and Lorain. There would be some massive drifts along the coast.

Of course for this to happen everything would have to unfold perfectly. Not sure if there's a historical event that has happened like this before, but nonetheless the wind impact would probably be amplified like it was with the arctic front crossing the frozen lake.

[dta1984]

Seems like I read about a past storm on here where this happened to Buffalo. Snow accumulated on the frozen lake, then winds shifted blowing everything into the city creating blizzard conditions.

[NEOH]

CLE got back to me and didn't specifically tell me why the final climo showed lower snow last weekend, just told me that the final climo report is the one to go with as sometimes there are errors in the first one and that they double check and make changes if necessary for the final one. Oh well.

 

I'm glad the models are trying to tick back south this weekend. I've been on the farther south train for a few days now and the models haven't been very nice for me, looks like they're trying to inch south and at least give us a good mixed precip threat on Saturday. Mainly snow would be nice since I'll be home and it sounds like I'm missing a good snow pack up there right now.

 

It's going to be a close call this weekend. I'm sure we will break freezing at some point but hopefully the precip will have ended. With the models flopping any solution is still on the table. The GFS would be the preffered scenario.

 

There is a decent snowpack 8-10" IMBY. The winds have compacted and drifted a lot of the snow.

[Chinook]

I was looking at the Toledo F6 climate form for this month. They have zero snow depth from the 13th to the 16th. However, my dad claims that snow has been on the ground all month. Did they mess up some observations?

[NEOH]

Seems like I read about a past storm on here where this happened to Buffalo. Snow accumulated on the frozen lake, then winds shifted blowing everything into the city creating blizzard conditions.

 

That was 1977 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_1977

 

The scenario Trent mentioned would be unbelievable, but certainly possible if the storm were to bomb out. We basically have the same conditions in place with a frozen lake and snowcover.

[NEOH]

Anyone have the text data from the 12z euro? Hard to tell looking at the awful e-wall graphics but it looked colder for the weekend system.

 

 

[Trent]

I was looking at the Toledo F6 climate form for this month. They have zero snow depth from the 13th to the 16th. However, my dad claims that snow has been on the ground all month. Did they mess up some observations?

It was a "torchy" 5 day mid month period. With nearly 5 days above 40 and rain, I don't doubt it all melted. I think the farthest north the snow melted was Monroe, Michigan. That's not to say some patches remained along driveways or shaded areas.

[OHweather]

FRI 12Z 31-JAN  -2.5    -7.0    1017      78      47    0.01     549     535    FRI 18Z 31-JAN  -0.3    -6.7    1019      72      96    0.01     551     535    SAT 00Z 01-FEB  -2.2    -6.9    1021      92      96    0.08     552     536    SAT 06Z 01-FEB  -2.8    -4.2    1020      93      98    0.03     554     538    SAT 12Z 01-FEB  -2.2    -2.9    1020      93      83    0.03     557     541    SAT 18Z 01-FEB   1.8     1.1    1016      79      89    0.02     559     546    SUN 00Z 02-FEB   4.1     4.0    1010      76      84    0.06     559     550    SUN 06Z 02-FEB   4.7     1.3    1009      93      99    0.13     555     547    SUN 12Z 02-FEB  -2.7    -4.3    1017      89      54    0.17     551     537    

Meh. Still not there yet

[AppsRunner]

I was looking at the Toledo F6 climate form for this month. They have zero snow depth from the 13th to the 16th. However, my dad claims that snow has been on the ground all month. Did they mess up some observations?

I'm in BG and we never lost our snowcover. I know Findlay did at one point earlier this month so it may be because TOL/FDY had more rain when we did warm up? The lowest I got down to was 2". 

[NEOH]

FRI 12Z 31-JAN  -2.5    -7.0    1017      78      47    0.01     549     535    FRI 18Z 31-JAN  -0.3    -6.7    1019      72      96    0.01     551     535    SAT 00Z 01-FEB  -2.2    -6.9    1021      92      96    0.08     552     536    SAT 06Z 01-FEB  -2.8    -4.2    1020      93      98    0.03     554     538    SAT 12Z 01-FEB  -2.2    -2.9    1020      93      83    0.03     557     541    SAT 18Z 01-FEB   1.8     1.1    1016      79      89    0.02     559     546    SUN 00Z 02-FEB   4.1     4.0    1010      76      84    0.06     559     550    SUN 06Z 02-FEB   4.7     1.3    1009      93      99    0.13     555     547    SUN 12Z 02-FEB  -2.7    -4.3    1017      89      54    0.17     551     537    

Meh. Still not there yet

 

 

Wow. Didn't think it was that warm. Thanks for the info. Looks like a white, wet, white system.

[OHweather]

Western NY still does well even with a frozen lake, it's amazing. BUF has been in snow/blowing snow with visibilities jumping between a quarter and half of a mile for a good 3 hours now.

[Trent]

Western NY still does well even with a frozen lake, it's amazing. BUF has been in snow/blowing snow with visibilities jumping between a quarter and half of a mile for a good 3 hours now.

 

It's incredible. The lake in the central part is frozen SOLID. I guess there's enough heat flux with that kind of distance. However, this is the winter of unrelenting STRONG southwest winds. Even with temps below zero last night and highs in the mid teens today, the strong southwesterly winds were able to break up the lake just to the east of the Erie Islands and north of the shore in Cleveland to bring up some open water.

 

Saturday's snowfall at Hopkins Airport was increased up to 5.3" in the most recent climate summary this afternoon. Sunday's snowfall, however, has not been touched. Looking at the hourly obs on Sunday there were 3 straight hours of moderate snow and 0.02" fell each hour. However, the final climate summary showed only 0.02" of liquid on 0.4" of snow. Perhaps, that'll be updated tomorrow. That does lead me to believe that snowfall measuring at Hopkins Airport is a disorganized mess. 

 

Barring any more corrections, the official monthly snowfall sits at 23.7". Normal is 18.7" And by comparison, January 2009 was much colder (19.4 degrees) and snowier coming in with 40.5" at the airport. I swear people in Cleveland have the shortest memories. When people say, "it hasn't been this cold in forever", I remind them of just 5 years ago when it was -14 and snowfall was nearly double this year. They tend to say, "oh, I don't remember that."

 

I feel like January 2009 set the gold standard of an ideal winter. Brutal cold, two gulf lows, lots of heavy lake effect, and a few clippers tossed in. Can't get any better than that for these parts.

 

But, if the late week storm ends up going south and gives us 3-6" and the big dog potential next week comes to fruition, then 2014 will start moving high on the benchmark winters list. 

[NEOH]

It's incredible. The lake in the central part is frozen SOLID. I guess there's enough heat flux with that kind of distance. However, this is the winter of unrelenting STRONG southwest winds. Even with temps below zero last night and highs in the mid teens today, the strong southwesterly winds were able to break up the lake just to the east of the Erie Islands and north of the shore in Cleveland to bring up some open water.

 

Saturday's snowfall at Hopkins Airport was increased up to 5.3" in the most recent climate summary this afternoon. Sunday's snowfall, however, has not been touched. Looking at the hourly obs on Sunday there were 3 straight hours of moderate snow and 0.02" fell each hour. However, the final climate summary showed only 0.02" of liquid on 0.4" of snow. Perhaps, that'll be updated tomorrow. That does lead me to believe that snowfall measuring at Hopkins Airport is a disorganized mess. 

 

Barring any more corrections, the official monthly snowfall sits at 23.7". Normal is 18.7" And by comparison, January 2009 was much colder (19.4 degrees) and snowier coming in with 40.5" at the airport. I swear people in Cleveland have the shortest memories. When people say, "it hasn't been this cold in forever", I remind them of just 5 years ago when it was -14 and snowfall was nearly double this year. They tend to say, "oh, I don't remember that."

 

I feel like January 2009 set the gold standard of an ideal winter. Brutal cold, two gulf lows, lots of heavy lake effect, and a few clippers tossed in. Can't get any better than that for these parts.

 

But, if the late week storm ends up going south and gives us 3-6" and the big dog potential next week comes to fruition, then 2014 will start moving high on the benchmark winters list. 

 

Looks like we will go 0-1. Lot's of rain with temps in the upper 30's should melt a good deal of the snowpack.NAM is really the worst case scenario. GFS would be 1-2" of front end snow, rain, and a sloppy backside inch. No idea what the euro showed. Perhpaps we'll see a tick south in the models today. Trends are not good though. We've missed out on storms so many times this winter by a small margin... pretty typical for our area though.

[Trent]

Well, Saturday looks like a washout now. Perhaps the initial "snow" will thump before the rain comes in, but trends haven't been in our favor.

January at CLE featured 23.7" on 1.40" liquid, that's a monthly average of 17:1 ratios. In addition 0.60" of rain fell. Overall a drier than normal month for northeast Ohio with ratios helping to bring above normal snowfall.

[NEOH]

Latest SREF plumes show a max temp of 36, with .80 of precip. Vast majority is rain, with 2.5" of snow. Yeesh. Ohio continues to be a synoptic storm wasteland.

[zero26800]

Latest SREF plumes show a max temp of 36, with .80 of precip. Vast majority is rain, with 2.5" of snow. Yeesh. Ohio continues to be a synoptic storm wasteland.

with the feb 3-5 storm playing the same game I am building a grudge against this weather pattern already.... and it hasn't even started.

[NEOH]

with the feb 3-5 storm playing the same game I am building a grudge against this weather pattern already.... and it hasn't even started.

 

Yeah, could be another wash out with that one as well... still a longs ways out though. It doesn't snow easily around here. It's almost impossible to get a favorable track outside of clippers.

[Trent]

Latest SREF plumes show a max temp of 36, with .80 of precip. Vast majority is rain, with 2.5" of snow. Yeesh. Ohio continues to be a synoptic storm wasteland.

 

Those SREF plumes are almost always underdone with regards to WAA surging north. Last weekend, there wasn't one of those plumes that got above 33 degrees. Yet, it still surged up to 41. 

 

The AFD today mentions that CLE is thinking all snow at this point next week, but we are still 5+ days out. Lots will change. This could end up being a nasty ice storm here. Once again, the trends with that storm have not been in our favor. I won't get excited for a major event unless there's decent model support for it on Monday morning. 

 

The one good news is that the unrelenting southerly winds have ripped the ice to shreds. Driving home today it was all open water away from the usual shore ice. Visible satellite looked pretty good too. So hopefully if the synoptic storms turn out to be duds, we can at least get a WNW flow sometime next week to take advantage of it. 

 

[NEOH]

Those SREF plumes are almost always underdone with regards to WAA surging north. Last weekend, there wasn't one of those plumes that got above 33 degrees. Yet, it still surged up to 41. 

 

The AFD today mentions that CLE is thinking all snow at this point next week, but we are still 5+ days out. Lots will change. This could end up being a nasty ice storm here. Once again, the trends with that storm have not been in our favor. I won't get excited for a major event unless there's decent model support for it on Monday morning. 

 

The one good news is that the unrelenting southerly winds have ripped the ice to shreds. Driving home today it was all open water away from the usual shore ice. Visible satellite looked pretty good too. So hopefully if the synoptic storms turn out to be duds, we can at least get a WNW flow sometime next week to take advantage

Nice. Lets just torch and open up more water.... Considering our luck with synoptic storms les is our best bet. The SW winds this month have really piled up ice where the central basin meets the eastern.

If we were to get a decent storm event I would consider it a bonus. My expectations are extremely low.