NEOH Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think a good model average for synoptic QPF is around 0.3". Ratios will be decent, but we've seen strong winds cause the ratios to not be truly realized due to the winds shredding the dendrites on the way down or due to blowing and drifting snow not allowing the snow to nicely pileup. Given the duration of the heavier snows will be pretty short I don't mind going on the lower end. For LES it's pretty marginal, there's just a brief window before ridging moves overhead tomorrow night. So I think there will be some but it won't be as organized or as long lasting as yesterday's. NOW, Monday into Monday night I think may be more interesting. We should have at least as much if not more of a stripe of open water to work with after the strong SW winds this weekend east of the islands and possibly a small sliver near the southern lakeshore as well. The NAM, GFS and Euro are hinting at an inverted trough hanging back towards Lake Erie behind the departing and strengthening low pressure Monday into Monday night, and all appear to show a lobe of higher low to mid-level RH moving overhead Monday into Monday night with very cold air temperatures moving in. The models don't really push ridging into northern Ohio until late Monday night. If this all comes together it's kind of a similar setup to yesterday with a WNW flow and possible convergence near the lakeshore. We'll see. But Monday's what I'd personally watch. Good points about the strong winds hurting the ratio's and ridging moving in. 3-6" seems reasonable. Take a look at the cleveland crib webcam... lots of open water. The winds are doing the dirty work on the ice. Who knows to what extent but good to see open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Good points about the strong winds hurting the ratio's and ridging moving in. 3-6" seems reasonable. Take a look at the cleveland crib webcam... lots of open water. The winds are doing the dirty work on the ice. Who knows to what extent but good to see open water. Yeah, MODIS imagery definitely shows a few miles of open water near the southern shoreline. Right now I'm willing to put most of my eggs in the Monday basket for LES and go from there. You'll get a nice shot of light to moderate snow for several hours tonight into tomorrow either way with a little LES behind it. But I think if we're going to see decent LES out of the next few days it'll be Monday. Evidently CLE agrees...rather aggressive in their zone forecast wording for this far out: Cuyahoga County: .MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BRISK AND COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 BELOW. Geauga County: .MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BRISK AND COLDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 BELOW. They don't mention it much in their AFD but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sure looks to be a snowy weekend. Cle does sound somewhat optimistic about sat night. Hopefully either sat night or Mon night work out. Sure is going to be a lot of drifting with the winds. Already blowing around what's currently on the ground. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE SNOWBELT ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT COULD BE MORE IF THE STRONG WINDS TODAY THRU SAT BREAK UP AND SHIFT ICE ON LAKES ERIE TO OPEN UP MORE EXPOSED WATER THAN EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Driving home today there was definitely open water a mile off the coast. I'm sure that ice is getting pushed out and packed up to the Ontario side. Hopefully the winds stay up. On that same thread, it's sad what strong winds can do to high ratio lake effect. Most of yesterday's snow has been settled in half. There are places where lawns are windswept to bare grass. I actually wouldn't be surprised if tonight and tomorrow end up on the low end of the scale. I've seen way too many times where depending on ratios with winds like this doesn't pan out. I think 3" for tonight and tomorrow is a more realistic expectation. The wind will surely turn flakes into dust. Hopefully the lake effect can pan out on Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Some heavier bursts of snow over the lake. Hopefully this shifts SE as the night goes on. You have to wonder if the models are overdone on qpf. The fluff has settled as Trent mentioned with the high winds. Still think 3-6 is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just eyeballing it looks like we've had close to 3" so far. Still a few more hours of moderate snow to come. Decent flake size as well despite the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Good luck measuring this! We've been under great returns most of the morning and even last night, but with the winds it's impossible to get an accurate measurement. I also think the winds help the snow settle quicker on the ground, reducing the effects of ratios. Nonetheless, nice to see the snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just took quite a few measurements. 5.2" seems to be the average. CLE's original call of 4-6" might be too low if this continues. Winds aren't all that bad out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just took quite a few measurements. 5.2" seems to be the average. CLE's original call of 4-6" might be too low if this continues. Winds aren't all that bad out here. The winds have died down the past few hours. I have some pretty large drifts at the end of the driveway. We still have the arctic front to look forward to once the snow we are having now winds down, it's producing a quick, but intense burst of snow through Michigan now. Models have this swinging through mid afternoon. This will also be accompanied by a wind shift from SW to a more favorable direction off the lake, so we might get a quick burst of enhancement with it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like about 5" here so far. It's really a guess with all the drifting. Snow depth was 7-9" in protected areas. There was about 3" on the ground last night, so I'm going with 5". Looks like more to come still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You guys are going to beat me although this was decent here...over 4" and should hit 5" at some point this afternoon. Nice squall line along the arctic front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The initial burst with the arctic front gave me 0.6" in 10 minutes. So that was 3"+ per hour rates. Looks like one of the METARs caught it: KCLE 251913Z 29021G29KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN BKN013 BKN025 OVC038 M03/M06 A2934 RMK AO2 PK WND 29029/1909 SNB06 P0000 T10281061 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The initial burst with the arctic front gave me 0.6" in 10 minutes. So that was 3"+ per hour rates. Looks like one of the METARs caught it: KCLE 251913Z 29021G29KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN BKN013 BKN025 OVC038 M03/M06 A2934 RMK AO2 PK WND 29029/1909 SNB06 P0000 T10281061 Ready for it here in kent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Definitely just had thunder here! Pure white out! Cleaned the driveway earlier. Hard to tell how much actually fell. Drifts against garage about 3ft, but measured 7-8" in some of the flatter spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Blew through pretty quick. Entertaining for about 10 minutes. Had about 1"-2"per hour rate going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And it's reloading again on the west side. We'll likely see a lot of warning criteria amounts come in for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And it's reloading again on the west side. We'll likely see a lot of warning criteria amounts come in for today. I think it'll become lighter and more scattered shortly, but that's a really nice burst over Cuyahoga County right now. Then again I also thought there'd only be 2-4" of synoptic so what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think it'll become lighter and more scattered shortly, but that's a really nice burst over Cuyahoga County right now. Then again I also thought there'd only be 2-4" of synoptic so what do I know Just happened to check the PNS from this morning. There is no way, under any circumstances that CLE only had 0.8" of snow at 7 am this morning Looks like they just took whatever liquid equivalent that they reported (which is always notoriously underdone during low temperature and high wind events) and then applied a straight 10:1 ratio: ...CUYAHOGA COUNTY... CHAGRIN FALLS 3.5 700 AM 1/25 SNOW SPOTTER BEREA 3.2 700 AM 1/25 SNOW SPOTTER SHAKER HTS 3.2 700 AM 1/25 SNOW SPOTTER GARFIELD HTS 3.0 700 AM 1/25 SNOW SPOTTER EUCLID 3.0 700 AM 1/25 SNOW SPOTTER BROADVIEW HTS 3.0 700 AM 1/25 SNOW SPOTTER CLEVELAND-OLD BROOKL 2.0 700 AM 1/25 SNOW SPOTTER CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI 0.8 700 AM 1/25 ASOS I can't wait to see what they report as a total today. I'm thinking they should be at least 5" but with the squalls now, they should have eclipsed 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This was just before the arctic front arrived. It's a bit of a drifted area, but you can see how impressive this clipper was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just came across this METAR last hour from KCLE: KCLE 252051Z COR 36015KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV008 M06/M09 A2945 RMK AO2 PK WND 35027/2020 SLP983 P0001 60006 SNINCR 1/4 T10611089 53037 It's not that an inch fell last hour, it's the second reading. How can CLE only have 4" on the ground at 4pm? But wait, how could they have only had 3" on the ground at 3pm (that's actually after the first arctic squall)? CLE was reporting a 2" snow depth yesterday. So that's what, perhaps an inch or so of snow between midnight at 3pm? Prepare yourselves for one of the biggest lowball CLE totals of year. Going around the yard, I've got snow depths ranging from 7-10" average is about 8.5". I'm sure 30+ mph winds at a wide open airfield is going to result in all of the snow just blowing away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow is it ripping out there. Best day of the year snow wise. If this were to keep up a foot would be doable by midnight. I had 6.3" as of 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 CLE snowfall looks to be coming in accurate. The climate summary at 5pm has the accurate precip amount. It's annoying that they put out "fake PNS" reports from CLE in the morning. ...THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 25 2014...VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2014WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LASTVALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEARNORMAL..................................................................TEMPERATURE (F)TODAYMAXIMUM 30 205 PM 73 1950 35 -5 19MINIMUM 19 222 AM -15 1897 22 -3 12AVERAGE 25 28 -3 16PRECIPITATION (IN)TODAY 0.44 0.08 0.36 0.15MONTH TO DATE 2.09 2.25 -0.16 1.15SINCE DEC 1 6.19 5.35 0.84 5.08SINCE JAN 1 2.09 2.25 -0.16 1.15SNOWFALL (IN)TODAY 5.7 0.6 5.1 2.1MONTH TO DATE 22.6 15.0 7.6 4.6SINCE DEC 1 40.1 29.1 11.0 19.8SINCE JUL 1 44.8 33.6 11.2 20.1SNOW DEPTH 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow, certainly some moisture flux east of the islands I'd have to say Things look to be slowly winding down, but maybe someone will push 8 or 9" in Cuyahoga, Lorain or Geauga Counties. Monday's lake effect potential is still there, but the models show surface winds shifting a bit which may make it hard to get a good convergence band to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow, certainly some moisture flux east of the islands I'd have to say Things look to be slowly winding down, but maybe someone will push 8 or 9" in Cuyahoga, Lorain or Geauga Counties. Monday's lake effect potential is still there, but the models show surface winds shifting a bit which may make it hard to get a good convergence band to form. These bands rotating through are INTENSE. Today easily would have verified as a winter storm warning. I'm eager to see the snowfall reports that come out. Should be widespread 6-8". I took a video that shows how intense these bands are. I'll try to upload it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Sorry for the portrait mode, but wow, today definitely over performed. Looks like the GFS won for this storm. I think this might end up being my largest calendar day snowfall in about 3 years ... and considering the New Year's Storm was actually broken up by a window of about 18 hours with no snow, today's storm actually wins out. Can't wait to see what CLE's final tally is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Picked up 7" here. Some PNS reports are trickling in. Adding the 7am reports to the 7pm reports (really wish they'd do storm totals instead) in Cuyahoga County we've got 7" also in Old Brooklyn and 7.5" in Garfield Heights. Big winner thus far is Thompson in Geauga County with 12.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'd say we've picked up about 4 - 5" here in Chagrin Falls since 3pm and it's still coming down at a fast clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 6-7" here in kent. Still going strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Nice vid Trent! Been snowing hard the past several hours. Looks to be another 4" on the driveway since I cleared it early afternoon. I'll measure in the morning. Event total would be around 10" if thats accurate ( and going by low end because of drifting on the early afternoon measurement) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Nice vid Trent! Been snowing hard the past several hours. Looks to be another 4" on the driveway since I cleared it early afternoon. I'll measure in the morning. Event total would be around 10" if thats accurate ( and going by low end because of drifting on the early afternoon measurement) . 10" is a good estimate so far. It has been non stop snow after the brief break before the front passed. Snowiest day of the year Imby. Too bad ridging is moving in. Great to have more snow in the forecast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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