NEOH Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Virga storm out there. Snow just seems to be drying up as it moves east. CLE is calling for 1-2" tonight which might be optimistic. Who knows though. As OHWeather mentioned, the models are showing what could be a long duration LES event next week. I'll be out of town so lock it up. Could be interesting with the right flow and enough open water. A 275-285 flow would maximize the southern portion of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 The band of heavier snow is having a hard time pushing east. West side folks should be seeing some heavier bursts of snow. Just .2 or so here so far. Long way to go for an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The band of heavier snow is having a hard time pushing east. West side folks should be seeing some heavier bursts of snow. Just .2 or so here so far. Long way to go for an inch. The radar looks much more promising than what's falling. Doubtful we've seen more than a half inch here, but there appears to be some better returns moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The radar looks much more promising than what's falling. Doubtful we've seen more than a half inch here, but there appears to be some better returns moving in. I left Oberlin at 9:30pm and it was snowing quite hard there, already 2" or 2.5" of fluffy snow easily. US-10 and US-20 back were pretty okay, not great, then I hit 480E and literally the snow stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well that was a dud. No more than a few tenths on the east side. A little sun and wind and this will sublimate down to nothing shortly. We'll see if tonight can do better. I feel confident that we'll at least have 2-3" down for the upcoming cold snap. If you look at CLE history, it's near impossible for CLE to get below 5 degrees without an inch of snow. Meaning, historically almost every significant cold snap has been preceded by some sort of snowfall. I'm still holding out hope for some northwest flow lake effect next week before it's iced over solid. Otherwise we could be looking at a prolonged cold dry snap with a wind swept inch or two on the ground for a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well that was a dud. No more than a few tenths on the east side. A little sun and wind and this will sublimate down to nothing shortly. We'll see if tonight can do better. I feel confident that we'll at least have 2-3" down for the upcoming cold snap. If you look at CLE history, it's near impossible for CLE to get below 5 degrees without an inch of snow. Meaning, historically almost every significant cold snap has been preceded by some sort of snowfall. I'm still holding out hope for some northwest flow lake effect next week before it's iced over solid. Otherwise we could be looking at a prolonged cold dry snap with a wind swept inch or two on the ground for a few weeks. Lol, (not at you)...but where have I heard this song before? Not to be a killjoy but we sang the same tune here in CMH before the last outbreak. Jbcmh posted stats and evidence showing how rare if ever to get a historic cold snap without at least an inch of snow preceding it. Guess what? we defied history as our snow cover got wiped out by rain and replaced with half an inch of snow before the hammer came down. That being said, this does look like a different pre-arctic plunge set up with no southern stream storms that look to develop and bring in the WTOD. A light to mod snow cover seems likely for most of us before...IF....the second hammer comes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 No more than a few tenths last night... I'll go with .3". Precip just hit a brick wall. Hopefully we'll cash in later today. CLE hinting at the T'snow potential. FEATURE TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS NE OHIO BY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT TO SEE A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL BETWEEN 3 AND8 PM WITH GOOD SNOWFALL RATES. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD KEEP MOVING. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING SNOWFALL FORECAST BUT GENERALLY EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE FROM NEAR AN INCH IN FINDLAY...TO 2-3 INCHES IN NE OH/NW PA THROUGH TONIGHT. CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY OR EVEN SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS BUT DID NOT WANT TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST BY ADDING THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'm not sure how that would complicate the forecast. If anything it would give users a better idea of what to expect. The hi-res NAM is interesting and shows a 4-6" in swath into Cleveland. The hi-res NAM and RAP both show lake enhancement or maybe some kind of meal low attempt this evening and the south third to half of the lake looked open on visible imagery a bit ago. This could get interesting for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'm not sure how that would complicate the forecast. If anything it would give users a better idea of what to expect. The hi-res NAM is interesting and shows a 4-6" in swath into Cleveland. The hi-res NAM and RAP both show lake enhancement or maybe some kind of meal low attempt this evening and the south third to half of the lake looked open on visible imagery a bit ago. This could get interesting for you guys. I could see mentioning the potential of "periods of heavy snow" instead of thunderstorms. Let's hope the hi res NAM is correct. It's been sunny most of the moring... sure wasn't expecting that. Conditions should deteriorate quickly later today. Seems like we've had a sustained SW wind for weeks now... so the any ice that forms probably gets pushed northeastward fairly quickly. There is definitely some open water to work with. Hoping we don't whiff with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I could see mentioning the potential of "periods of heavy snow" instead of thunderstorms. Let's hope the hi res NAM is correct. It's been sunny most of the moring... sure wasn't expecting that. Conditions should deteriorate quickly later today. Seems like we've had a sustained SW wind for weeks now... so the any ice that forms probably gets pushed northeastward fairly quickly. There is definitely some open water to work with. Hoping we don't whiff with this one. Someone in the main thread for the clippers is at around 2" near Dayton and is still seeing heavy snow. This could be a disastrous evening commute for Cleveland even if it's only a 2-3" event because it will be so quick hitting and the timing will coincide perfectly with the commute. CLE could honestly throw up advisories right now and I wouldn't argue. We'll see if you can get any lake enhancement up there. The sun if anything will help some instability develop. Very impressive dynamics with this little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Someone in the main thread for the clippers is at around 2" near Dayton and is still seeing heavy snow. This could be a disastrous evening commute for Cleveland even if it's only a 2-3" event because it will be so quick hitting and the timing will coincide perfectly with the commute. CLE could honestly throw up advisories right now and I wouldn't argue. We'll see if you can get any lake enhancement up there. The sun if anything will help some instability develop. Very impressive dynamics with this little system. The NAM is more bullish on precip for the central and eastern lakshore, while the GFS takes the heavier snows west of here. If season trends have anything to do with it we'll be watching the heaviest snows fall from Sandusky on west. I'm sure I'll run out of debbie downer posts once we get a decent snowfall . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Temps surging with sun. Already up to 38. Hopefully this helps with instability in producing some quick accumulations. Last night's dusting is already melted away. Latest NMM is too far east but shows he potential. ARW has the band through Cleveland. With the bullseye right near the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 15z RAP was just an awesome snowbomb over Cleveland. We'll see. The 13z HRRR is odd in that is starts off too far east with the heavy snow but then brings the heaviest west of Cleveland. Looking at the radar Cleveland should be good but it'll be close. The echoes have weakened in the past little bit, we'll see if it re-intensifies at all as the afternoon goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I have tickets tonight for the Observation Deck on Terminal Tower. They rarely open it up for night time viewing. Either I'll get some awesome pictures (lightning) or it will be such a white out that it's hard to see much. CLE forecast is confusing. The special weather statement mentions 2-3" yet the zones mention an inch. We're looking at a potential high impact short duration event. Cut offs with this will be narrow, a whiff to the west and it's more bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 I have tickets tonight for the Observation Deck on Terminal Tower. They rarely open it up for night time viewing. Either I'll get some awesome pictures (lightning) or it will be such a white out that it's hard to see much. CLE forecast is confusing. The special weather statement mentions 2-3" yet the zones mention an inch. We're looking at a potential high impact short duration event. Cut offs with this will be narrow, a whiff to the west and it's more bare ground. I'm probably out of the game for heavy snow here in Western geauga county. Gotta love getting synoptic snow with the same coverage as a LES event. It will dump where ever the band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looking at the radar, it appears that CLE to Sandusky should do pretty well. At this point it may start as rain here, then perhaps chance briefly to snow. Unless the radar lights up this will be another whiff for the this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yeah, this will probably end up west of where it was modeled this morning. I got my 15 minute snow squall here, I'm content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Even for CLE, it looks close. Radar trends would just clip the western part of Cuyahoga county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Ohio has very high lapse rates today, with 500mb temperatures in the low -30's C, and surface temperatures above freezing in eastern Ohio. That's 6.7C/km or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Ohio has very high lapse rates today, with 500mb temperatures in the low -30's C, and surface temperatures above freezing in eastern Ohio. That's 6.7C/km or more. Now If only we could get some precip to go along those steep lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Even for CLE, it looks close. Radar trends would just clip the western part of Cuyahoga county. The party will be in Huron and Erie counties... no afternoon delight here unless the band somehow stalls. Perhaps I can outperform the .3 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well the higher amounts will work out, but just on the west side. Still some decent convective looking snows over Lake, Ashtabula and northern Geauga so maybe 1-2" there...parts of Erie and Huron will push 4-5" and are now under an advisory. The small low pressure appears to be turning more NE so you guys may get a burst later but it probably won't be significant. Still a cool all around event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well the higher amounts will work out, but just on the west side. Still some decent convective looking snows over Lake, Ashtabula and northern Geauga so maybe 1-2" there...parts of Erie and Huron will push 4-5" and are now under an advisory. The small low pressure appears to be turning more NE so you guys may get a burst later but it probably won't be significant. Still a cool all around event. Was a quick burst of snow. I picked up 0.6" of snow. The funny thing is that last night I had 0.7" of snow, this afternoon it reached 40 degrees, all of the snow melted. Then came the burst of snow and deposited 0.6". So after all that anticipation for a surprise event, I wound up with less snow on the ground now than when I woke up this morning. Perhaps we'll get another burst later tonight as the low passes by. But now I'm starting to get concerns that we'll wind up going through this cold snap with bare or mostly bare ground. I wonder how much that would end up modifying temperatures locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Another interesting weather anomaly that shows the sharp contrast in weather this winter from eastern Ohio compared to the rest of the midwest ... CAK is actually running a slight POSITIVE temperature departure for meteorological winter thus far. That's sure to drop solidly in the below normal category by month's end, but it shows how the roller coaster temps have pretty much equalled normal in Eastern Ohio and then trend slightly below as you get towards Cleveland and then crash to well below normal as you go towards Toledo and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 And one last post to show how awful the NAM can be in super short range: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_namm/nam_kcle.dat Yep, it was spitting out 8.7" of snow this evening on 0.49" liquid from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I see 5 to 7" in north central Ohio, with a west wind. Insanity. It never snows with a west wind when you're on that part of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 And one last post to show how awful the NAM can be in super short range: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_namm/nam_kcle.dat Yep, it was spitting out 8.7" of snow this evening on 0.49" liquid from the 18z run. The hi res models this morning had the right idea on liquid amounts but were off on placement. That's pretty bad that the 18z NAM was so off though! RE: Bare ground and cold. This first little teaser shot around mid-week may have pretty bare ground. I think there will be some LES in the Snowbelt but that doesn't help a lot of people out. The GFS and Euro continue to insist on a much larger shot in 9-10 days or so...I'd like to think if that happens we'll get at least some snow ahead of it, even if it's just a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I see 5 to 7" in north central Ohio, with a west wind. Insanity. It never snows with a west wind when you're on that part of the lake. 2014_01_17_2242z_CLE1.jpg So winter storm warning criteria verified (in not even 4 hours) and CLE put out an advisory only to drop it two hours later There may have been a bit of a kick off the lake but most of this was snow with the mid-level vort. Edit: There was this at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 So winter storm warning criteria verified (in not even 4 hours) and CLE put out an advisory only to drop it two hours later There may have been a bit of a kick off the lake but most of this was snow with the mid-level vort. I think today was another example of why CLE isn't "one of the best" NWS offices in the region. By mid morning there was enough guidance to point to a significant, albeit narrow, band of snow over their CWA. By noon or so, it was apparent that was going to be setting up just west of Mansfield up to Norwalk and the central lakeshore. Advisories at the least should have gone up for those areas. Instead we get the wait until the event is almost over, useless advisory. I'll cut them some slack that it was going to be hard to pin down where this was actually going to set up, but they should have had advisories ready to go after seeing most 6z and 12z guidance. Imagine though, if that band had been centered over Cuyahoga? We'd have had a redux of Dec 2010 all over again. I'm curious what CLE actually reports as a snow total today. The precip amounts seem very off on the METARs. The 4pm observation shows 0.04" for the hour, but 0.07" for the 3 hours preceding despite there not being anything the hours before. Likewise the 6 hour total at 7pm shows 0.13" which doesn't jive with radar or their hourly observations. I notice a tendency for CLE to apply straight 10:1 ratios for smaller events. This might actually get over reported if the precip isn't corrected. EDIT: Just saw that CLE has updated their grids. My point and click for Lakewood now says 3-5" overnight. What are they looking at to justify that overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I think today was another example of why CLE isn't "one of the best" NWS offices in the region. By mid morning there was enough guidance to point to a significant, albeit narrow, band of snow over their CWA. By noon or so, it was apparent that was going to be setting up just west of Mansfield up to Norwalk and the central lakeshore. Advisories at the least should have gone up for those areas. Instead we get the wait until the event is almost over, useless advisory. I'll cut them some slack that it was going to be hard to pin down where this was actually going to set up, but they should have had advisories ready to go after seeing most 6z and 12z guidance. Imagine though, if that band had been centered over Cuyahoga? We'd have had a redux of Dec 2010 all over again. I'm curious what CLE actually reports as a snow total today. The precip amounts seem very off on the METARs. The 4pm observation shows 0.04" for the hour, but 0.07" for the 3 hours preceding despite there not being anything the hours before. Likewise the 6 hour total at 7pm shows 0.13" which doesn't jive with radar or their hourly observations. I notice a tendency for CLE to apply straight 10:1 ratios for smaller events. This might actually get over reported if the precip isn't corrected. EDIT: Just saw that CLE has updated their grids. My point and click for Lakewood now says 3-5" overnight. What are they looking at to justify that overnight? CLE was a little slow. Advisories should have been up by around noon when the snow was pushing into their CWA and you could use radar to guess where it would roughly go. Their AFD last night was decent and discussed the potential somewhat and discussed the convective aspect of things, but after that they didn't follow through. The dynamics with this event were very impressive and when an organized area of heavy snow was riding up west of I-71, the light bulb should've gone off. 0.13" seems high for the airport...we'll see what it ends up being. There is nothing that supports 3-5" for you tonight...just, ugh. Maybe an inch of LES if you're lucky but it looks pretty light right now. I actually texted several people around 10:30AM who have to commute through Cuyahoga County that the PM commute could be really really bad...of course I ended up texting them again around 2:30PM saying it would stay west. That would've been ugly for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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