NEOH Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Interesting satellite shot. Seems odd to see the lake frozen in the middle with open waters near the coast, but that's what strong southwesterly winds will do. Driving home tonight, it appeared that "open water" had a fine layer of glassy ice over it. That mostly open patch is kind of encouraging though. If we got a nice westerly flow that would almost force a band to develop over that creating a classic east/west band. However, with winds expected to go calm tonight I'm sure some of those open areas will freeze solid. What we'll probably end up seeing is ice shifting around the lake depending on wind direction the next month or so. If we get some strong northerly winds, all of that ice comes ashore, and it'll produce some cool ice formations on the beaches. The weather last night was the last thing we wanted -- single digit temps and calm winds. Any open areas definitely iced over. The pattern looks up and down for the forseeable future so that might help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Today's euro still has the storm in the 1/14 - 1/15 time frame. Apps runner with marginal temps most likely. Good to have something to track at least. We may pick-up an inch or two of snow tonight before the melt. If we get heavy rain of the weekend there's a good possiblity of ice jam flooding. Many places on the Chagrin are clogged with ice after last weeks rain. Looks like the models want to take the heaviest rain NW and SE of here which would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Last nights cold temps cold winds allowed the open areas to freeze up. We would need a decent torch and heavy rain to open that up. Today's modis imagery -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Last nights cold temps cold winds allowed the open areas to freeze up. We would need a decent torch and heavy rain to open that up. Today's modis imagery -- Suppose to be 50F with significant rainfall on Saturday,i don't think it will make that much difference though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 With 2" of heavy wet snow tonight, I think that'll be enough to maintain a thin snow cover by tomorrow afternoon. It's always hard to say how much melting will occur with rain and low 40s. Areas to the south will probably see most of the snow gone, but areas near the lake should get by with a crusty 2-3" snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Picked up 2.3" of snow last night. We've had mostly fluff this winter... this heavy wet snow seems so much more substantial in comparison. Not sure how much will be left after the rain and mild temps. I have a good 2-3" of glacier underneath last nights snow so it will take some time to melt. Hopefully the heaviest rain will stay to the SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Snow is taking a beating today with low 40s and high dew points. Figures we get a nice "refresher snow" that is wiped out within hours this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Snow is taking a beating today with low 40s and high dew points. Figures we get a nice "refresher snow" that is wiped out within hours this morning. Yeah, not sure what will be left if we get heavy rain. The bottom couple of inches will be pretty resilient given its mostly ice. The models seem to want to take the heaviest rain NW and just SE of the area. We'll see what happens. The euro still has the storm next week. The current track would be worrisome in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Warmth is never denied. Above 50 now for most areas. I managed to melt off almost all of my snow. There's enough bare patches to call this a trace left. Definitely some 2-3" melted down drifts, but more bare grass than snow. Looks like the rain was a bust too. Less than a tenth of an inch on the west side of town. Hopefully it was warm enough to loosen up the ice on Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Just about all of the snow is gone at this point.... Just patches and piles. Funny how these warm ups last just long enought to melt everything. Hopefully we can whiten things up again next week. Pattern looks kind of blah though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Just about all of the snow is gone at this point.... Just patches and piles. Funny how these warm ups last just long enough to melt everything. Hopefully we can whiten things up again next week. Pattern looks kind of blah though. Yeah, if I'm going to lose a 17" snowpack to a torch, it would be nice to enjoy a few warm days before we go back to winter. It would be different if we were looking at another major storm, but that usually isn't the case and it's certainly not this time either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah, if I'm going to lose a 17" snowpack to a torch, it would be nice to enjoy a few warm days before we go back to winter. It would be different if we were looking at another major storm, but that usually isn't the case and it's certainly not this time either. Exactly. Not much to look forward to on the horizon. Euro lost next weeks storm... Might be looking at a clipper parade to the north. Time will tell but we've been lacking a big dog in this area for quite some time. Would be nice to enjoy a snowpack before feb or march. Losing a 17" snowpack is hard. We didn't have near as much on the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I think I like the potential for a few inches of snow back home on Wednesday. The models show a upper trough moving overhead with deep moisture and sufficiently cold temperatures to generate moderate instability by late Wednesday morning over the lake. Most models drag a weak surface low just to the north Wednesday morning and show a bit of a trough hanging back towards CLE. So, we have cold enough temps, a favorable WNW to NW wind direction, deep moisture for a time, a source of convergence near the lakeshore, and, the kicker (and this should get better after mild temps and gusty S-SW winds on Monday): Here is a look at the NAM RH profile (18z run) through Wednesday evening...note the good moisture to at least 700mb much of Wednesday: And the 18z NAM SLP, surface temp and surface wind depiction for Wednesday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 12z models thus far appear to have trended a bit warmer/drier for Wednesday but I'd have to imagine you guys will at least white the ground again Tuesday night into Wednesday. The models all show this little "clipper" parade continuing for the next 7-10 days and don't show prospects for intense cold until the day 8-10 timeframe, so I'd have to imagine you guys could nickle and dime your way to a half decent snowpack in the next week and a half, and possibly get a few inches at once if one of these clippers brings the winds around to the NW quickly enough. The ensembles try to amplify the cold pattern with a sharp ridge over the west coast extending into Alaska so this little clipper type pattern should continue...I'm not sure though that the pattern can yield a significant synoptic storm for Ohio though. Honestly I don't mind an "active" NW flow pattern because those little systems that drop 1-2" here probably account for the vast majority of our snowfall each winter...in one and a half winters in Athens thus far the biggest snow I've seen was 2.4" so it's not like I'm ever realistically in the game for more than 3" of snowfall here...it happens but not often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Hello all, Long time lurker, first time poster. Really appreciate the info you guys provide - great to follow possible LES & synoptic (far too rare) winter weather events by reading along! I posted this on the Upstate NY thread over in that forum. Not sure this totally translates into good news for you guys given that I am quite a bit east, but I went to the top of the roller coaster at the amusement park I work at about 30 minutes ago (park is located at the entrance of Presque Isle State Park, about 4 miles west of the city of Erie, PA). From about 140' in the air, as far as I could see north, west and east, water was TOTALLY OPEN. I took some pictures, maybe my wife can help me post them when I get home because I am tech illiterate. Hopefully some LES in the not too distant future...bring on that 280 to 290 flow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Welcome aboard Maiden! Great news about the open waters. Hopefully that extends further west as well. How has winter been over that way so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Thanks for the welcome! Despite the cold, winter at least IMBY has been a little bit of a let-down. The LES event of October, west and south of me did well, I only got 2". November was snowier than usual but did not have a snowpack of more that 12" and December saw some of the heavier snow fall north & east of me - my greatest snow depth was 14". Now down to some snowpiles here adn there and some snow in the wooded areas. Regarding the pictures... The first is looking northeast up the shoreline toward the lucky folk recently experiencing the LES Blizzard. The camera you see there is the Ravine Flyer Cam - can be seen on WICU / WSEE news website if interested. Also, the bay is still iced over pretty well on the upper right side. The second photo is looking due north, The third horribly blurred photo is looking westward toward your guys neck of the woods. Trust me though, not a chunk of ice to be seen anywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hello all, Long time lurker, first time poster. Really appreciate the info you guys provide - great to follow possible LES & synoptic (far too rare) winter weather events by reading along! I posted this on the Upstate NY thread over in that forum. Not sure this totally translates into good news for you guys given that I am quite a bit east, but I went to the top of the roller coaster at the amusement park I work at about 30 minutes ago (park is located at the entrance of Presque Isle State Park, about 4 miles west of the city of Erie, PA). From about 140' in the air, as far as I could see north, west and east, water was TOTALLY OPEN. I took some pictures, maybe my wife can help me post them when I get home because I am tech illiterate. Hopefully some LES in the not too distant future...bring on that 280 to 290 flow! Welcome. Great to have someone in NWPA posting. Your area makes the ohio snowbelt look weak. Great pics as well. Nice to see the open water. Hopefully we can get a decent fetch when other parameters are in place as well. I'm just not feeling good about our snow prospects in this pattern. We'll nickel and dime as ohweather mentioned... But perpetual clippers mean constantly shifting winds. Anyway, it will be nice to have some snow on the ground again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Nice view of the lake on the visible satellite today. There is plenty of open water in the southern section of the central basin. Most of the ice has been pushed along the northern shore. It would be interesting to see what kind of band would form over the open area. Wonder if the ice creates more convergence? Doesn't look like the flow will come around to WNW as previously thought. With the clippers moving NW of the area winds primarily will stay SW'erly. Almost the like the pattern is going out of its way to prevent a solid NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 What's most impressive this winter ... And it's only mid January is how many cycles of decent snow pack we've had that melts completely away. Especially out near 271 and the east side there've got to be at least 7 times this winter where we've had 4" or more on the ground completely wiped out only to be rebuilt a few days to a week later. I'm not too optimistic for snow prospects this week, but I'm encouraged by the ice break up in Erie. However, I'm hoping that the opening of the central waters wasn't a wasted opportunity for LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 What's most impressive this winter ... And it's only mid January is how many cycles of decent snow pack we've had that melts completely away. Especially out near 271 and the east side there've got to be at least 7 times this winter where we've had 4" or more on the ground completely wiped out only to be rebuilt a few days to a week later. I'm not too optimistic for snow prospects this week, but I'm encouraged by the ice break up in Erie. However, I'm hoping that the opening of the central waters wasn't a wasted opportunity for LES. Starting the middle of next week it should be pretty cold with lots of clippers riding by on a NW flow (we'll see some of that through this weekend but none currently look to do much) so I'd imagine you'll have your chances...but chances don't always turn into results. Definitely enough open water to work with, it's a good thing the frigid weather last week only lasted about two days. I'll probably be home January 31-February 2 barring a statewide blizzard...knowing my luck you'll get a good LES event a few days before that with the lake freezing by that weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 What's most impressive this winter ... And it's only mid January is how many cycles of decent snow pack we've had that melts completely away. Especially out near 271 and the east side there've got to be at least 7 times this winter where we've had 4" or more on the ground completely wiped out only to be rebuilt a few days to a week later. I'm not too optimistic for snow prospects this week, but I'm encouraged by the ice break up in Erie. However, I'm hoping that the opening of the central waters wasn't a wasted opportunity for LES. Well, there's always next week... But I'm afraid (as usual) this week was a wasted opportunity with the open water. A few below freezing days in a row should ice things up again. Strong shifting winds may help though. This brief reprieve from winter seems to be lasting forever.... But more like reality in the southern lakes. We were spoiled with an early start this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 boring boring boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 If recent trends continue, the late weekend clipper progged to go south of us, should start trending north and put us in the game towards Friday, before missing us completely to the north. I'm sure in the next 10 days we'll get a sneaky 5" of fluff from something. It probably won't be apparent until the day of/day prior, but these patterns generally don't come off completely snow free even though models look dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 boring boring boring The past two weeks have featured a 0.9" snowstorm, a 1.9" snowstorm that melted within hours, and a 0.31" rainstorm. Come on now, that's stormy! After a great start to winter locally, things have come to a halt here just after the New Year. Looks like we play the waiting game for the near term as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 The past two weeks have featured a 0.9" snowstorm, a 1.9" snowstorm that melted within hours, and a 0.31" rainstorm. Come on now, that's stormy! After a great start to winter locally, things have come to a halt here just after the New Year. Looks like we play the waiting game for the near term as well. Winter weather has grinded to a halt around here. I'm still not impressed with any of these clippers. But as you mentioned, one will most likely sneak up on us. We just can't get a decent flow off of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Latest GFS has most of next week with NW winds. Something to keep an eye on. But we'll see how much ice forms by then. Tonight is looking a but more optimistic. Could be a quick burst after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You guys will get your snow between now and February 15th...I'll probably get mine too at some point. I'll be driving up I-77 on the last day of the month and the long range GFS looks interesting around then, so mark your calendars. Next week would be a long duration and significant LES event if the lake was wide open...but as we all know ice is a variable in this equation. A WNW wind may be better because as of right now at least the largest area of open water is near the southern shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 FWIW, another quick "on the scene" lake ice report. In painesville/mentor area today. Went to a little park at mentor-on-the-lake. Again, with exception of chunks of shore ice several hundred feet out, water all open as far as I could see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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