Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[OHweather]

The Buffalo metro is under their first blizzard warning since the mid 80's due to lake effect snow and strong winds. If only we had a NW wind and more open lake. MODIS imagery and images from the crib cam this afternoon indicate some water opened up although there is still considerable ice in the central/western basin...however enough open water for some moisture flux back to Toledo and plenty of open water towards western NY. CLE was already down to -7 at 6:00PM.

[Trent]

Driving home tonight I was surprised to see Lake Erie steaming. There was some open water visible, but I'm sure the strong southwest winds are pushing the ice farther out and fresh water appears only to refreeze and then move farther out.

[NEOH]

Down to -12 Imby... Way too cold. Wonder what the bottom will be.

It would have really made the storm missing us a lot easier if we had a les event behind the storm. Seems like there is always a wsw wind following these arctic outbreaks.

[Trent]

I hit -11 IMBY. Looks like CLE hit the same. While yes, this cold is impressive, hence the records for the date, it's once again being media sensationalized as apocalyptic.

 

We've got the coldest airmass in ... 5 years ... when it was -13 in January of 2009.

 

There are dozens and dozens of days in CLE that have been colder than this. And as far as record lows go, there are about 14 in January that are colder. This cold spell is basically the wintertime equivalent of hitting 98 degrees in July.

 

I vividly remember the colder cold spell in January 2009 and there surely wasn't this kind of hype to go along with it.

[zero26800]

It's cause the media discovered the word polar vortex.

[nwohweather]

You guys should check the ODOT webcams around Toledo. All roads under a Level 3 still, and sections of 75 are closed as well. Maybe the biggest wallop I have honestly ever seen this area take, cannot remember things being literally shut down for multiple days following a storm

[zero26800]

You guys should check the ODOT webcams around Toledo. All roads under a Level 3 still, and sections of 75 are closed as well. Maybe the biggest wallop I have honestly ever seen this area take, cannot remember things being literally shut down for multiple days following a storm

Going to be interesting with the weekend rain that looks pretty promising to bring a good amount of rain to your area...

[NEOH]

Going to be interesting with the weekend rain that looks pretty promising to bring a good amount of rain to your area...

 

GFS is quickest with bringing the front through. Euro seems much slower. Hopefully we can get back to a more favorable pattern after the warm up.

[nwohweather]

Going to be interesting with the weekend rain that looks pretty promising to bring a good amount of rain to your area...

I doubt it all melts but who knows. Our rural areas outside the suburbs look like apocalyptic 

[LakeEffectOH]

GFS is quickest with bringing the front through. Euro seems much slower. Hopefully we can get back to a more favorable pattern after the warm up.

Euro & GEFS ensembles, along with the OP Euro & the OP GFS are bringing the cold back by next Wednesday or Thursday.  The cold doesn't, at this time, look to be as cold as the current cold snap though.  The euro weeklies still want to keep heights high into Alaska for the next 30 days which means it does not see any Alaska Death Vortex poised to torch us with 40° - 55° temps.  Now if we can get a good snowstorm to hit the area instead of cut to our west...

[OHweather]

I hit -11 IMBY. Looks like CLE hit the same. While yes, this cold is impressive, hence the records for the date, it's once again being media sensationalized as apocalyptic.

 

We've got the coldest airmass in ... 5 years ... when it was -13 in January of 2009.

 

There are dozens and dozens of days in CLE that have been colder than this. And as far as record lows go, there are about 14 in January that are colder. This cold spell is basically the wintertime equivalent of hitting 98 degrees in July.

 

I vividly remember the colder cold spell in January 2009 and there surely wasn't this kind of hype to go along with it.

I think this may have yielded slightly colder wind chills than January 2009, but the temperatures certainly didn't get quite that cold. The hype surrounding this whole arctic plunge has been hilarious. First the NWS issues warnings for synoptic snow, and half of the weekend mets in town freaked out right along with them. A couple of stations were more reasonable but 8 and 19 were pretty ridiculous.

 

Then the synoptic snow "busted." I'm not sure you can call it a bust if two days out, anyone with half a brain knew we were in trouble, but we'll go with that word. But, have no fear, the NWS kept propping up the LES! That, never looked all that good. And, some weekend TV mets in town continued to freak out about LES. I had a couple of people asking me YESTERDAY AFTERNOON when we were going to get heavy snow because they heard it would snow "really bad" last night. I'm not sure where they heard that but two different people asked me that yesterday afternoon so I'm assuming someone Sunday night or maybe even Monday morning said it.

 

Then, the lake effect was busting but have no fear, you'll die if you go outside! I get it, in this day and age schools are going to close when there are wind chill warnings, because they're too worried about getting sued I'd have to imagine...and it was certainly cold enough for schools to close. But considering stores were pummeled Saturday and early Sunday by people not wanting to go outside over the next few days because between the lake effect blizzard and coldest air in a generation, they might die, I'd say there was an overreaction. Many businesses closed which made no sense to me...I've been told businesses also closed because it's a liability issue. Honestly if you are an adult in Cleveland and get frostbite driving into work you probably deserve it...but oh well. There was just no traffic yesterday afternoon which shocked me, the first Monday back after a lot of people took time for the holidays...I'd imagine today it won't be much more active out there.

 

So, rant aside, it'll be nice to warm into the 20's tomorrow

[Trent]

And to finally end the beating of the dead horse on this non snow event for Northeast Ohio, all winter storm warnings have been dropped.

Looks like Ashtabula was the big winner in Ohio with 0.1" but of course Erie County edged them out as always with a whopping 0.5" inches overnight.

Time to move on. Visible satellite shows the ice cover extent over Erie, which doesn't bode well for us. The central part of the lake will probably open up and freeze up a few more times this winter, but the western basin is probably iced over through March.

I'm not sure CLE can pull off 38 more inches of snow this winter without the help of Lake Erie.

The sad thing is, you know there'll probably be another arctic blast that sets up the perfect wind direction for us sometime in the near future, but Erie will be iced over making it a non event.

[zero26800]

Hopefully we get a decent thaw for lake erie because I think I will explode if we get favorable wind a few weeks from now with a frozen lake.

[LakeEffectOH]

I'm not sure CLE can pull off 38 more inches of snow this winter without the help of Lake Erie.

 

 We would have to get just over 12" per month (Jan, Feb, Mar) to catch up to normal.  It's possible.  I'm wondering if this warmup, coupled with possible strong winds, will help break things up in the western basin of the lake.  BTW, it was -13° at my place in Chesterland last evening.

[LakeEffectOH]

Then, the lake effect was busting but have no fear, you'll die if you go outside! I get it, in this day and age schools are going to close when there are wind chill warnings, because they're too worried about getting sued I'd have to imagine...and it was certainly cold enough for schools to close. But considering stores were pummeled Saturday and early Sunday by people not wanting to go outside over the next few days because between the lake effect blizzard and coldest air in a generation, they might die, I'd say there was an overreaction. Many businesses closed which made no sense to me...I've been told businesses also closed because it's a liability issue. Honestly if you are an adult in Cleveland and get frostbite driving into work you probably deserve it...but oh well. There was just no traffic yesterday afternoon which shocked me, the first Monday back after a lot of people took time for the holidays...I'd imagine today it won't be much more active out there.

 

 

I loved the way CNN & TWC hyped the polar vortex...the polar vortex is coming...OH NOES!!!!!!!!

[dta1984]

Seems like there have been several small to moderate events this winter, but not really a large event. I believe we have crossed the 50" mark, so not a bad start so far I guess.

On a different note, I saw a link on twitter last night of "river effect " snow happening on the east side of Cincinnati last night. Nothing more than flurries or light snow, but still rare and cool.

[Trent]

Essentially you're going to have 32-33 degree water where any breaks occur. The strong winds with -10 temps surely brought surface temps just above the freezing point. So even if breaks occur, they'll refreeze quickly with any cold nights with calm winds.

I think luck will have to be on our side for the rest of the winter.

We'll probably have several more ice break ups and refreezes. Hopefully we can cash in with the right wind direction when we get some breaks.

Any MODIS imagery for today yet?

[LakeEffectOH]

Seems like there have been several small to moderate events this winter, but not really a large event. I believe we have crossed the 50" mark, so not a bad start so far I guess.

On a different note, I saw a link on twitter last night of "river effect " snow happening on the east side of Cincinnati last night. Nothing more than flurries or light snow, but still rare and cool.

River effect..that is cool, I did not know that snow can form from crossing that narrow of a fetch.  I've heard of steam power plants causing snow when temperatures approach 0°F. 

[LakeEffectOH]

Essentially you're going to have 32-33 degree water where any breaks occur. The strong winds with -10 temps surely brought surface temps just above the freezing point. So even if breaks occur, they'll refreeze quickly with any cold nights with calm winds.

I think luck will have to be on our side for the rest of the winter.

We'll probably have several more ice break ups and refreezes. Hopefully we can cash in with the right wind direction when we get some breaks.

Any MODIS imagery for today yet?

If blocking develops over Greenland which many mets are forecasting for Feb & Mar, that will hopefully keep the synoptic storms from cutting to our west bettering our chances for having decent (>6") snowfalls.  I just checked for todays MODIS images and there is nothing for 1/7.

[OHweather]

MODIS imagery seems to update slowly...the images from Tuesday finally showed up in the evening. The central basin is mostly ice but it appears to be very thin/slushy, as the clouds clearly show some moisture/heat flux is occurring there....there is even a streak of small cumulus clouds over the western basin. IR images are showing temperatures 7-10C warmer over the western basin of Lake Erie right now than over surrounding land areas, so even though the western basin is pretty locked up there is still some moisture/heat flux through what is generally thin ice. We look to see a pretty extended period of above freezing temperatures, SW winds and some rain starting Thursday or Friday that should really move things around. We'll see how much the ice breaks up but I'd imagine the next time arctic air comes down there will be some decent LES. I'll probably be in Athens for that.

 

 

As for the river effect snow over SW Ohio Monday night into Tuesday morning, I've come across a radar image of it. Talking to someone who lives on the KY side of the river south of Cinci, he thinks it's from power plants along the river in that vicinity. He says there are several power plants right along the river in that area. On first glance I can possibly see how the river influenced this little band of flurries, as the wind paralleled the river for a good 30 or so miles. Some of the Finger Lakes generate full blown LES with similar fetches. The strong convergence from colder air from surrounding land helps generate more concentrated bands even with a short and narrow fetch. We may never know if this was strictly generated by power plants or if the river helped...I thought ice crystals generated by power plants in arctic airmasses only occurred in areas immediately downwind of the power plant and not 70+ miles downstream. ILN didn't specifically say where these flurries came from but did mention them in their AFD early Tuesday morning:

 

AREAS OF ICE CRYSTALS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. WILL MENTION ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF.

 

 

As has been discussed above we may not be waiting too long for the cold to return. There is decent ensemble agreement on a renewed +PNA/-AO pattern with some potential for the EPO to go negative again as well. I'd say the last 10 days or so of January will likely be colder than normal. If we can get a strong -EPO again it may get very cold again but there currently isn't strong ensemble support for that.

[Trent]

I couldn't believe how many schools were still closed today. It's currently 11 outside with a forecast high of 22. Seriously? That warrants closure due to cold temps?

Euro looks like it tosses us scraps for the next week with a ton of rain coming Saturday. No doubt grass will be peaking through the leftover snow on Sunday.

Good to see that Erie is mostly slush in the central waters. Still holding out hope for a decent northwest flow event that pounds the area for days like what's going on in Buffalo.

[ayuud11]

I couldn't believe how many schools were still closed today. It's currently 11 outside with a forecast high of 22. Seriously? That warrants closure due to cold temps?

Euro looks like it tosses us scraps for the next week with a ton of rain coming Saturday. No doubt grass will be peaking through the leftover snow on Sunday.

Good to see that Erie is mostly slush in the central waters. Still holding out hope for a decent northwest flow event that pounds the area for days like what's going on in Buffalo.

It's frozen as far as i can here in buffalo.

[Chinook]

Good to see that Erie is mostly slush in the central waters. Still holding out hope for a decent northwest flow event that pounds the area for days like what's going on in Buffalo.

 

Looks like the lake will see heavy rain and a temp of 40 for the weekend. That should liquefy things, including your snow.

[NEOH]

Looks like the lake will see heavy rain and a temp of 40 for the weekend. That should liquefy things, including your snow.

 

We'll lose the snowpack but the ice won't be going anywhere soon  .  If we're lucky it will shift around some and compact.

 

The euro has storm threat in the 1/14 time frame... maybe we'll find ourselves on the right side this time around.

[NEOH]

I couldn't believe how many schools were still closed today. It's currently 11 outside with a forecast high of 22. Seriously? That warrants closure due to cold temps?

Euro looks like it tosses us scraps for the next week with a ton of rain coming Saturday. No doubt grass will be peaking through the leftover snow on Sunday.

Good to see that Erie is mostly slush in the central waters. Still holding out hope for a decent northwest flow event that pounds the area for days like what's going on in Buffalo.

 

Outside of the freak October LES event, that's exactly what has been missing from this winter. Not sure we'll have an opportunity though with so much lake ice though.

[OHweather]

It's frozen as far as i can here in buffalo.

Cool video! You obviously got some brutal conditions from this storm. Satellite shows that a good amount of ice formed over the eastern basin as well over the past few days, however there was obviously enough moisture flux to get a good snow band into the Buffalo metro. I'd imagine frictional convergence helped too.

 

Outside of the freak October LES event, that's exactly what has been missing from this winter. Not sure we'll have an opportunity though with so much lake ice though.

It may turn out that the best LES Cuyahoga County sees this season was the October event, with 8-10" in the vicinity of Mayfield.

 

The ice is thin and we'll have a good window of warmth, rain and southerly winds. If the ice was more solid as opposed to slush I'd be more pessimistic but I do think we'll see a pretty major shrinking of the ice cover this weekend. There were a couple of February LES events last year that were kind of unexpected due to what was thought to be pretty solid ice on the lake, but happened due to big breaks in the ice opening up. We'll see if we can get a favorable wind direction at some point in the next 7-10 days assuming the ice moves around like I think it will.

 

With a new trough diving down around the 14th we'll have to watch for some sort of synoptic snow. Perhaps I'm a bit jaded from this past weekend but I think the trough will dive down too far east to benefit us, but it does bear some watching.

[ayuud11]

Cool video! You obviously got some brutal conditions from this storm. Satellite shows that a good amount of ice formed over the eastern basin as well over the past few days, however there was obviously enough moisture flux to get a good snow band into the Buffalo metro. I'd imagine frictional convergence helped too.

 

It may turn out that the best LES Cuyahoga County sees this season was the October event, with 8-10" in the vicinity of Mayfield.

 

The ice is thin and we'll have a good window of warmth, rain and southerly winds. If the ice was more solid as opposed to slush I'd be more pessimistic but I do think we'll see a pretty major shrinking of the ice cover this weekend. There were a couple of February LES events last year that were kind of unexpected due to what was thought to be pretty solid ice on the lake, but happened due to big breaks in the ice opening up. We'll see if we can get a favorable wind direction at some point in the next 7-10 days assuming the ice moves around like I think it will.

 

With a new trough diving down around the 14th we'll have to watch for some sort of synoptic snow. Perhaps I'm a bit jaded from this past weekend but I think the trough will dive down too far east to benefit us, but it does bear some watching.

Latest satellite imagery 

[Trent]

Interesting satellite shot. Seems odd to see the lake frozen in the middle with open waters near the coast, but that's what strong southwesterly winds will do. Driving home tonight, it appeared that "open water" had a fine layer of glassy ice over it. That mostly open patch is kind of encouraging though. If we got a nice westerly flow that would almost force a band to develop over that creating a classic east/west band. However, with winds expected to go calm tonight I'm sure some of those open areas will freeze solid. What we'll probably end up seeing is ice shifting around the lake depending on wind direction the next month or so. If we get some strong northerly winds, all of that ice comes ashore, and it'll produce some cool ice formations on the beaches.

[ayuud11]

Interesting satellite shot. Seems odd to see the lake frozen in the middle with open waters near the coast, but that's what strong southwesterly winds will do. Driving home tonight, it appeared that "open water" had a fine layer of glassy ice over it. That mostly open patch is kind of encouraging though. If we got a nice westerly flow that would almost force a band to develop over that creating a classic east/west band. However, with winds expected to go calm tonight I'm sure some of those open areas will freeze solid. What we'll probably end up seeing is ice shifting around the lake depending on wind direction the next month or so. If we get some strong northerly winds, all of that ice comes ashore, and it'll produce some cool ice formations on the beaches.

IF we can only get some high winds,it will give us more open water..BTW that ice in the middle of the lake was responsible for the two lake bands that were impacting north of buffalo and south of buffalo.

[ayuud11]

we are almost catching up with Erie PA(77.2),BUF up to 62.5 now.