Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[Shsg Falls]

United Express has cancelled all CLE flights Monday & Tuesday. I guess the workers and facilities aren't as prepared as places like MSP, Edmonton or Quebec.

[Trent]

United Express has cancelled all CLE flights Monday & Tuesday. I guess the workers and facilities aren't as prepared as places like MSP, Edmonton or Quebec.

 

Yep, just saw that. That obviously isn't for snow right? Is it that Hopkins can't handle de-icing planes in cold temps anymore?

 

Also surprised to see that 80% of schools have already closed for tomorrow. Looks like the 3 pm temperatures tomorrow when the kids get out of school could be around 7. Imagine if the schools around here closed every morning when it was below 10 degrees!

 

The sensationalism of this storm is unreal. 

[carumba]

United Express has cancelled all CLE flights Monday & Tuesday. I guess the workers and facilities aren't as prepared as places like MSP, Edmonton or Quebec.

I am pretty sure that's mostly Terminal D and the itty bitty planes there that'll be affected. Maybe they can move more quickly with current equipment and keep the bigger jets rolling at the expense of the smaller ones.

[carumba]

Yep, just saw that. That obviously isn't for snow right? Is it that Hopkins can't handle de-icing planes in cold temps anymore?

 

Also surprised to see that 80% of schools have already closed for tomorrow. Looks like the 3 pm temperatures tomorrow when the kids get out of school could be around 7. Imagine if the schools around here closed every morning when it was below 10 degrees!

 

The sensationalism of this storm is unreal. 

 

We just got an automated msg from Kenston schools that they are closed all day tomorrow. They cited messy roads and snow as the reason. Someone should lose their job over this, seriously, unless I wake up to blizzard conditions.

[zero26800]

Unbelievable. I would love to know just what it is that they know and we don't.

[zero26800]

Got to be joking http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2014/01/lists_of_school_districts_that.html#incart_river

[Shsg Falls]

We just got an automated msg from Kenston schools that they are closed all day tomorrow. They cited messy roads and snow as the reason. Someone should lose their job over this, seriously, unless I wake up to blizzard conditions.

Chagrin schools are closed too. Moderate rain outside now. It will probably be above 20 F tomorrow morning.

The NWS office at CLE really needs some reform. Imagine the economic cost because of their foolish behavior. Almost all school districts in the Cleveland area are closed tomorrow.

[zero26800]

Chagrin schools are closed too. Moderate rain outside now. It will probably be above 20 F tomorrow morning.

The NWS office at CLE really needs some reform. Imagine the economic cost because of their foolish behavior. Almost all school districts in the Cleveland area are closed tomorrow.

All the way through the Akron area. All closed

[NEOH]

All the way through the Akron area. All closed

It's just foolish. Hype is hilarious... And let's face it, teachers probably aren't complaining about another day off.

Looks like we were three counties east

of the rain/snow line... Tough to be so close. The consolation prize could have been a les snow blitz.... But we'll be watching areas ne of us get buried with les following the storm. This is definitely a kick in the arse from Mother Nature.

[NEOH]

Just looked at the regional radar... Wonder if most areas don't flip to snow before midnight. Seems be be a solid charge east with the cold air.

[Floydbuster]

The local grocery store was full of people stocking up, prepared to stay indoors for days. There will be hell against pro-mets by folks if things stay rainy and warm.

[Trent]

Woke up in the middle of the night to see everything coated in white. Got up this morning and went outside to measure an inch of fluff. Some light snow going on now. Can we crack 2" out of this winter storm warning?

[zero26800]

Snowing here as well. Everything icing over nicely. Can't wait to get on the road and see if it is a skating rink.

That is all.

[Trent]

What a joke. There might be "up to" a half inch of new snow in Mayfield Heights. The northwest part of Cuyahoga county must have switched over sooner. Maybe an inch and a half in spots.

Interstates were fine. Didn't encounter any snow covered spots between Lakewood and Mayfield Heights. Took me about 5 minutes longer than usual.

Residential streets did seem to feel the effects of the flash freeze, but was this storm worth the hype and warnings?

The epic bust of 2014.

[NEOH]

What a joke. There might be "up to" a half inch of new snow in Mayfield Heights. The northwest part of Cuyahoga county must have switched over sooner. Maybe an inch and a half in spots.

Interstates were fine. Didn't encounter any snow covered spots between Lakewood and Mayfield Heights. Took me about 5 minutes longer than usual.

Residential streets did seem to feel the effects of the flash freeze, but was this storm worth the hype and warnings?

The epic bust of 2014.

 

I had close to 1.5" imby. Yeah, this was an epic bust. Winds will turn wsw'erly soon and the snow will shift up the lakeshore.

 

Not much to look forward to on the horizon. The lake will be iced over so we'll have to rely on synoptic snows unless we can get a torch to open up the lake.

[Shsg Falls]

Surface temperatures upstream in the Midwest are warmer than forecast this morning.  Our MOS temps for tonight are also warmer than forecast from previous runs.  It will be hard for most places to make it below -10°F tonight.  Yawn.

 

The herd behavior of people to close down today seems bizarre.  Schools, businesses, etc.  I can't figure it out.  I was in the grocery store yesterday and I'd have thought a major hurricane was on it's way.

[Trent]

And the warning rolls on.

Interesting how the warning now explicitly states less than 2 inches at Hopkins Airport. They must have received a lot of flak from a botched forecast that unnecessarily cancelled 279 flights today.

What will the highest total be in Cuyahoga today? Is there a legitimate threat for LES in Cuyahoga through Wednesday?

[zero26800]

Decent lake effect out there right now in Garfield heights. Only a matter of time before it all shifts east

[NEOH]

Decent lake effect out there right now in Garfield heights. Only a matter of time before it all shifts east

 

Snowing nicely in Chagrin as well. Too bad we couldn't get a favorable flow the next couple of days. With the rain last night, the snow left on the ground is glacier. If anything it looks wintry outside, and we didn't lose our snowpack.

[NEOH]

And the warning rolls on.

Interesting how the warning now explicitly states less than 2 inches at Hopkins Airport. They must have received a lot of flak from a botched forecast that unnecessarily cancelled 279 flights today.

What will the highest total be in Cuyahoga today? Is there a legitimate threat for LES in Cuyahoga through Wednesday?

 

Edit: .5" - Euclid. No.

[Shsg Falls]

We got about 2" of dry snow here in Chagrin Falls.  There have been some thin spots in the clouds since 9 a.m. and at the most flurries, the Winter Storm Warning is still in effect until tomorrow.  Why?  From the AFD:

 

THE SNOW WILL BE A TOUGHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH DUE TO CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN LOW
LEVEL WEST FLOW SETS UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT SO A WINTER STORM WARNING
IN THE SNOWBELT MAY WORK OUT AS THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT LAKE EFFECT
SHSN ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILL READINGS FALLING TO 20
BELOW OR LOWER LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

 

A warning "may" work out?  The air is so dry I'm kind of expecting mostly sunny skies later:

 

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=DTW&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis

 

Someone should get some forecasting education.  To have a winter storm warning out while skies clear?  Hmmm...

 

Is decoupling and a radiational cooling night possible?  That would be cool!

[LakeEffectOH]

From the looks of the radar, the very dry air has done its dirty work...VERY light snow flurries at best.  The sun is looking like it is trying to come out.  Will be interesting if the skies clear out for a time tonite.  If CLE doesn't change its WSW to a wind chill warning by the late afternoon update, then I'll know they are not hitting on all cylinders...

[zero26800]

Garfield heights has hit the 0 mark. Earlier than predicted.

[OHweather]

We got about 2" of dry snow here in Chagrin Falls.  There have been some thin spots in the clouds since 9 a.m. and at the most flurries, the Winter Storm Warning is still in effect until tomorrow.  Why?  From the AFD:

 

THE SNOW WILL BE A TOUGHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH DUE TO CHANGEABLE

CONDITIONS. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE

WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN LOW

LEVEL WEST FLOW SETS UP TODAY INTO TONIGHT SO A WINTER STORM WARNING

IN THE SNOWBELT MAY WORK OUT AS THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT LAKE EFFECT

SHSN ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILL READINGS FALLING TO 20

BELOW OR LOWER LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

 

A warning "may" work out?  The air is so dry I'm kind of expecting mostly sunny skies later:

 

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=DTW&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis

 

Someone should get some forecasting education.  To have a winter storm warning out while skies clear?  Hmmm...

 

Is decoupling and a radiational cooling night possible?  That would be cool!

Heh, the warning actually runs until 9:00AM Wednesday. Although 850mb winds at times come around to the W over the next couple of days with some better moisture at times as a couple of shortwaves move through most models show SW surface winds persisting. Given there is only limited open water in the central and western basin I can't imagine SW surface winds will bring significant snow to anyone except for northern Ashtabula. There may be a couple of bursts of lights snow as these shortwaves move through assuming the lake doesn't completely freeze today or tonight but not enough to warrant a warning.

 

There are some things CLE should do. First they need to can their entire winter storm warning and put a wind chill warning up for the Snowbelt. People expect snow/ice with winter storm warnings and we haven't had warning criteria wind chills since January 16, 2009. Thus, people may not realize just how cold it is, so a wind chill warning should be in place for everyone. Second, if CLE is THAT worried about heavy lake effect that they're letting a WSW ride for almost 60 hours for no reason they can issue a LES watch for Ashtabula into NW PA and upgrade to a warning if needed...and bump other NE OH counties up to an advisory for shorter periods of time if needed (which I doubt is likely). CLE has a strange aversion to having 2 winter weather headlines up at the same time for the same place which is dumb. Why can't a wind chill warning coexist with a pointless WSW?

[LakeEffectOH]

Heh, the warning actually runs until 9:00AM Wednesday. Although 850mb winds at times come around to the W over the next couple of days with some better moisture at times as a couple of shortwaves move through most models show SW surface winds persisting. Given there is only limited open water in the central and western basin I can't imagine SW surface winds will bring significant snow to anyone except for northern Ashtabula. There may be a couple of bursts of lights snow as these shortwaves move through assuming the lake doesn't completely freeze today or tonight but not enough to warrant a warning.

 

There are some things CLE should do. First they need to can their entire winter storm warning and put a wind chill warning up for the Snowbelt. People expect snow/ice with winter storm warnings and we haven't had warning criteria wind chills since January 16, 2009. Thus, people may not realize just how cold it is, so a wind chill warning should be in place for everyone. Second, if CLE is THAT worried about heavy lake effect that they're letting a WSW ride for almost 60 hours for no reason they can issue a LES watch for Ashtabula into NW PA and upgrade to a warning if needed...and bump other NE OH counties up to an advisory for shorter periods of time if needed (which I doubt is likely). CLE has a strange aversion to having 2 winter weather headlines up at the same time for the same place which is dumb. Why can't a wind chill warning coexist with a pointless WSW?

I think CLE was burned by last week's mess and they are afraid to change anything.  That said, you are right...they need to cancel the WSW and replace it with wind chill warnings and as far as LES goes, take a flexible stance like you said...issue watch/warning/advisory as needed.  It will be interesting how they handle the next event after all this.

[zero26800]

Just some thoughts for the long term.

 

It's not uncommon for us to get a thaw in January. After this cold air passes, I can see the lake thawing out with a stretch of around or above freezing temps. By the end of Jan we will be ready for another round, lake will open up, and this time better luck. 

Or

The cold air rebounds much faster, and we rely on storms cause our LES source will most certainly be ice.

[LakeEffectOH]

^{...Looks like CLE dropped the WSW for Geauga County and replaced it with a wind chill warning.  Ya think any of the mets at CLE are reading this board?}

[zero26800]

^{...Looks like CLE dropped the WSW for Geauga County and replaced it with a wind chill warning.  Ya think any of the mets at CLE are reading this board?}

[OHweather]

^{...Looks like CLE dropped the WSW for Geauga County and replaced it with a wind chill warning.  Ya think any of the mets at CLE are reading this board?}

I've always wondered haha. If they do none of them have made themselves known. We've had a couple of local mets post here at times over the last few years but I don't think any of them were CLE forecasters.

 

I'm much happier with the headlines now. Snow amounts may not justify a warning over Lake/Ashtabula but obs from western NY and SW lower MI are indicating very poor visibilities under just modest radar returns likely due to the strong winds and very powdery nature of the snow...so IF some LES can graze Lake/Ashtabula Counties at times over the next couple of days conditions won't be pleasant.

[LakeEffectOH]

I've always wondered haha. If they do none of them have made themselves known. We've had a couple of local mets post here at times over the last few years but I don't think any of them were CLE forecasters.

 

I'm much happier with the headlines now. Snow amounts may not justify a warning over Lake/Ashtabula but obs from western NY and SW lower MI are indicating very poor visibilities under just modest radar returns likely due to the strong winds and very powdery nature of the snow...so IF some LES can graze Lake/Ashtabula Counties at times over the next couple of days conditions won't be pleasant.

That's what I am thinking about the LES.  There are several SW - NE oriented bands going into WNY right now.  If the wind shifts to a more westerly component, the southmost band may work its way into the Ashtabula lakeshore area, but I doubt further south.  I think they could have dropped Lake County and even inland Ashtabula county from the WSW.